Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

26 responses to “Case-Shiller: Home Price Gains Stall in September”

  1. Mike

    I don’t see a whole lot of homes for sale in seattle that are selling for 16% off peak pricing that are in good condition. Generally if a house is priced that low, it’s because it’s been abused, neglected or suffered some kind of casualty in the past 6.5 years – not because houses in general are less expensive than they were in 2007.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. softwarengineer

    RE: Mike @ 1

    Seattle Shacks

    Its many factors [including continuous rain and mildew] preventing Seattle home owners from keeping up and fixing up their homes, as they all deteriorate, especially with more people traffic wearing everything out quickly [especially animals and kids]. Even household income rises are useless/ambiguous, assuming household sizes have dramatically grown lately……albeit, documenting this on the web is a complete joke, try it.

    My friend from Marysville alleges his neighborhood hides/masks mass growing gypsy packs into rentals with closed curtains and large vans [without multiple automobiles giving it away]to bus the tennant armies, until they’re found out and evicted [after its too late, the unit's destroyed]. He gets really suspicious when he sees like 10 kids playing in the yard of a single unit. I’m glad I’m not a landlord.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  3. Blurtman

    Crystal meth tweaking zombie gypsy packs, no doubt. Twin Peaks II coming soon.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

  4. boater

    16% sounds like a reasonable average. In some parts if seattle it seems like prices are very close to 2007 but the farther you get from the hot neighborhoods the faster the price goes back to 2005ish.

    Marysville doesn’t represent seattle particularly well. This whole housing recovery has been very location dependant. I just haven’t seen the economies outside of seattle/bellevue recover as much.

    I would hazard a guess that houses actually are cheaper to build now than 2007. The massive build outs in 2007 nation wide put inflationary pressure on all building supplies and wages that don’t exist currently. Permitting feels more expensive to me at least in seattle.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

  5. mike

    RE: boater @ 4 – Interestingly, lumber prices are higher now than 2007. Most of the country was already deep into the housing correction by then and demand had fallen off. From what CR has written, the recent run up in prices is due to supply constraints following a period of decreasing production capacity.

    I’ve been puzzling over why in the city itself the price gains on 2006-2008 constructed homes are so dramatic – In some cases I’m seeing 10% over 2007 prices on homes originally sold right at the peak of the market. Likewise, there are “new construction” flips on houses delivered in 2010-2012(!?!?) showing some impressive gains as well. There’s one in Greenwood of all places that sold 11 months ago and is now under contract 17% higher after less than a week on the market. We’ll see what it closes at but I’ll bet it’s close to asking. I thought this place seemed a little rich for north of 85th in Greenwood when it went in last year, but I guess I was wrong.

    http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/8749-1st-Ave-NW-98117/home/101154

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. corndogs

    Prices are stalled? Prices are flat? Seasonally adjusted I’d say prices are still headed up at a steady pace which is noteworthy because the tick up in interest rates didn’t seem to have much of an effect… All cities but 1 are up month over month in September with the composites up .7% MOM that’s not flat. Who puts the headlines on these things?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 5

  7. Jillayne Schlicke

    Request for an investigative piece based on this story:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/laura-gottesdiener/foreclosed-homes-rental-properties_b_4343234.html

    Q: How many single family homes does Blackstone now own in the greater tri-county area?

    Q: When were those purchases made and has the pace of the purchases slowed down now?

    Q: Is anyone renting from their subsidiary and what has that been like as a tenant?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  8. Erik

    Whoever sells in december 2013 is a genious! Strike while the iron is hot friends. Too much risk moving forward.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 8

  9. Pierce Anon

    RE: Jillayne Schlicke @ 7

    I tried to get “The Tim” interested in this article about the situation in Pierce County, but received no response.

    http://www.thenewstribune.com/2013/10/27/2857576/giant-investment-funds-fuel-new.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  10. Jim

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2
    Who else here has a hard time telling when SWE is trying to be funny or just got done smokin’ a doobie – gotta laugh either way I guess.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 4

  11. softwarengineer

    RE: Jim @ 10

    Whose the Expert on Seattle Real Estate History

    The guy like SWE who has lived here all his life and watched this once pristine forrested community turn into an ovepopulated cement city strip mall with dinky lots….or some California transplant who paid too much for real estate and thinks its a good thing?

    Think about it :-)

    I wish I could do the doobie thing, but like the Seahawk CBs, I have a job that prevents it….but after I retire :-)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  12. corndogs

    RE: Erik @ 8 – “Whoever sells in december 2013 is a genious! Strike while the iron is hot friends. Too much risk moving forward.”

    If I was your engineering supervisor and saw that you spelled genius that way I’d give you a warn notice immediately.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

  13. mike

    RE: Pierce Anon @ 9 – I did a similar search for King County and they’re buying in places like Kent, Renton, Newcastle, Auburn, Burien – no evidence of buying in Seattle. Seems to be mostly low tier homes/locations around here.

    As for Jillyane’s question, they’re still buying in KC – plenty of deeds recorded up through November, last one on the 22nd for Invitation Homes (IH2 Property)

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  14. Erik

    RE: corndogs @ 12
    Too late, already got one. I used phonics and it didn’t work that time. Get over it.

    I am most likely moving to Charleston, SC with a promotion as opposed to getting canned. Down there seems like real estate is more so on the rise than Seattle.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  15. Jillayne Schlicke

    Thanks, Mike.
    I have another source I will ask. Will let you know his take.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  16. Corndogs

    RE: softwarengineer @ 11 – It doesn’t matter where you live, you are not an expert at anything and you never well be, I only hope that your parents taught you that autonomy is a virtue and that you struggle to be so thus minimizing my tax burden.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  17. Corndogs

    RE: Erik @ 14 – haha a promotion? Boeing is moving operations to SC to gain access to cheap non-union labor. Guess what that makes you!

    Selling in December doesn’t make you a genius. It makes you deadwood leaving town.

    If you were a genius you’d become a contract engineer negotiating individually and making 3 times as much as the union slackies and you’d remain employed while they are getting cut. You’d keep your condo as your home residence and pick up 35/hr in per diem write offs by being an out of state employee which would more than pay your mortgage. You’d work the situation so you spend most of the winter surfing in southern California offices and the summer here in Seattle. You’d fly back and forth on the company dime as a business trip with a company credit card in your pocket getting paid to fly and paid time and a half for overtime.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  18. Erik

    RE: Corndogs @ 17
    I am not going to south carolina by choice, it is to stay employed. My plan is to go down there an finish up my master of science in mechanical engineering. After that, I will try to work as a contractor. I need that degree first.

    I will make a huge amount on this remodel, so that is why I feel like a genius. I will show you if/when it sells. Very large return on investment.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  19. Erik

    RE: Corndogs @ 17
    I was referring to real estate. I already admitted that I make many mistakes. This last remodel should be a huge financial success, which you, tim, ira, ardell and others helped me with. Moving forward I really hope to continue that success. My job has always been the neccesary evil to remodel or rent real estate. My family doesnt have money to help me get started, so finally hitting the jackpot is a big deal for me. I believe I will become successful, but it will be a bumpy ride. I am hopeful that the most turbulent times are over.

    I dont have the financial backing to rent my place out. This money will provide me some security.

    I was considering helping a professional remodeler for a year until I get my masters degree, to get faster and better at remodeling.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

  20. Corndogs

    RE: Erik @ 19 – This is my last post but have you looked into whether you’ll be able to collect percdiem and what the requirements are to claim it?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  21. Erik

    RE: Corndogs @ 20
    I go interview on the 2nd-3rd in Charleston. I can ask then, but at this point I’m just hoping to keep employed. I think per diem is if I am being borrowed. This permanent relocation. I do get moving expenses and that’s it.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  22. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: Erik @ 21
    If you get the gig in SC, does it start right away?
    And if it does, how does that affect your plan to hold off a few more months to sell your place in order to avoid capital gains?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  23. Ira Sacharoff

    RE: Erik @ 19
    Admitting to mistakes is a good quality. It makes you look like a human being. People who only boast about their successes and never mention mistakes are either a holes or lying.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  24. Macro Investor

    By Erik @ 18:

    RE: Corndogs @ 17
    I will make a huge amount on this remodel, so that is why I feel like a genius.

    A “while” back you were convinced you would make a windfall renting out the place. All you had to do was take out a craigslist add and watch the riches pour in. My prediction was that would not be so easy.

    Let’s see if you can actually sell the place and get this huge amount. Bragging about unrealized paper profits is what children do. Business people book cash flow.

    Best wishes in SC. It’s probably a nicer place than over crowded Seattle, and we already know houses are a bargain in comparison. This layoff may be the luckiest thing to ever happen to you… moving to a new growth center, instead of staying in a decaying zoo.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  25. mm

    Excellent move on going to Charleston, SC for Boeing. You are lucky they are paying for relocation and it is a win regarding your standard of living improving. I am hearing anecdotal and stories in the press about Boeing pulling out of the Puget sound region; can you from the inside of Boeing provide some insight regarding this? What do you see what do you hear?

    Also regarding becoming a “contractor” have heard Boeing is going out and requesting bids on contractors. Contracting was lucrative is it still?ding . How many contractors are in Charleston now?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  26. MM

    RE: Erik @ 21

    ERIC – 21

    ERIC – Excellent move on going to Charleston, SC for Boeing. You are lucky they are paying for relocation and it is a win regarding your standard of living improving. I am hearing anecdotal and stories in the press about Boeing pulling out of the Puget sound region; can you from the inside of Boeing provide some insight regarding this? What do you see what do you hear?

    Also regarding becoming a “contractor” have heard Boeing is going out and requesting bids on contractors. Contracting was lucrative is it still?ding . How many contractors are in Charleston now?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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