Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

6 responses to “November Reporting Roundup: Don’t Wait, Buy Now Edition”

  1. Ron

    “The drop-off may mean the housing market is moving away from the dreaded boom-and-bust cycles that can lead to a market crash, brokers and economists in the region said.”

    Wow, that’s great news. I’ve been patiently waiting for the trend to become both stable and reliable. Up, up, and away…now everyone can sit back over the holiday’s and reminisce about how great things are.

    Rest assured that Seattle is guaranteed to be the 2nd hottest market in the country next year.

    http://www.zillow.com/blog/2013-12-05/2014-real-estate-predictions/

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  2. mike

    RE: Ron @ 1 – Oh yeah, this will be great. with a stable, reliable trend we can go back to those pre-equity loans where you borrow against the expected value of your house several years hence. I’m in.

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  3. mmmarvel

    I dunno, the economy still seems to have too many stuttering ups and downs. We might sail through but … Just glad I bought when I bought (the end of 2011) and where I bought (Houston).

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  4. goblue72

    I realize gloom & doom is more fun than slow & steady – but slow & steady is what we are in – and have been for several years – see the Big Scary Graph from Calculated Risk –

    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-ijU6PH-8dt0/UV7FocJzo7I/AAAAAAAAZtM/WUPGUOPBf9g/s1600/EmployRecMar2013.jpg

    This is what a recovery from a financial crisis looks like. It pretty much follows the pattern of post-WW II financial crises in developed and developing countries. Namely a 10-20 year recovery period. If anything, the United States is ahead of the curve due looking to recovery in a 10 year time frame and not a 20 year one – due to its Keynsian response to the crisis – thanks to a combination of aggressive monetary policy from Big Ben and aggressive fiscal policy in the 1st 2 years of the Obama administration (before House Republicans shut off fiscal stimulus in a misguided effort to take back the White House.)

    The most recent GDP figures are indicating more steady growth. And the latest employment numbers are better – both the U-3 and the U-6. In addition, labor force participation rate is climbing. All this points to potential for incomes to rise over the next few years – with the potential fly in the ointment being whether the ACA does wind up bending the cost curve on healthcare costs, which have had a tendency over the last 10 years to erase income gains.

    If we are getting into a healthier, more stable real estate market, it should mean real estate prices should track income gains and the general improvement in the economy. So, prices in core markets continue to rise – just not as fast as the past year which was more a function of correcting for a bottom side over-correction.

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  5. Blurtman

    RE: goblue72 @ 4 – I call that bold talk for a one eyed fat man.

    Please back up your claim that the LFPR is “climbing.”

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  6. Kary L. Krismer

    By goblue72 @ 4:

    If we are getting into a healthier, more stable real estate market, it should mean real estate prices should track income gains and the general improvement in the economy. So, prices in core markets continue to rise – . . ..

    You’re assuming an increase in incomes and an improvement in the economy.

    And I think you’re also putting the cart before the horse. Your first quoted sentence should really read: “If we are getting into a general improvement in the economy and income gains, it should mean a healthier, more stable real estate market.” I know there’s a theory that real estate leads the economy out of a recession, but I think it’s really just that real estate recovers earlier than some other areas.

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