Case-Shiller: Seasonal Price Declines Begin in October

Happy new year! I’ve been fairly unplugged over the last couple of weeks, but I’m getting back into the swing of things now that we’re kicking off 2014.

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to October data, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down 0.3% September to October
Up 13.1% YOY.
Down 16.6% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 0.2% from September to October and year-over-year prices were up 5.7%.

October saw a flip from rising prices to falling prices month-over-month, which is typical for that time of year.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle’s position for month-over-month changes fell from #14 in September to #16 in October.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In October, nine of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one less than September):

  • Las Vegas at +27.1%
  • San Francisco at +24.6%
  • Los Angeles at +22.1%
  • San Diego at +19.7%
  • Atlanta at +19.0%
  • Phoenix at +18.1%
  • Detroit at +17.3%
  • Miami at +15.8%
  • Tampa at +15.2%

Nine cities gained less than Seattle as of October: Portland, Minneapolis, Chicago, Dallas, Denver, Charlotte, Boston, Washington DC, Cleveland, and New York.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through October.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the seventy-five months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 16.6%.

Lastly, let’s see what month in the past Seattle’s current prices most compare to. As of October 2013, Seattle prices are still roughly where they were in October 2005.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.31.2013)


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

2 comments:

  1. 1
    mike says:

    I don’t think this is happening across the board. More so in SWE and Kary L K land. Weirdly high home sale prices still showing up in North Seattle.

  2. 2

    RE: mike @ 1 – Inventory is again getting low in King County, but it is still really low in many areas of King County. I suspect that will be the topic of one of Tim’s next pieces now that he’s plugged back in.

    Many of the searches I do are searches for changed conditions (new listings, new prices, new status, etc.). In some of those searches I can see plenty of daily activity, but when I do a full search the number of active listings can be surprisingly low. That’s obviously good for sellers.

    For buyers interested in new construction, in some areas (e.g. Kent, Auburn, Bothell) there’s a surprising amount of new construction, including some developments which were probably platted before 2008 based on the stakes in the ground back then. That’s likely limiting prices for sellers of resales in those areas, particularly for similar properties built after 2000. That type of activity is not occurring in North Seattle, particularly for houses.

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