Guess the Price Round 7: We (Finally) Have a Winner!

Guess the Price Round 7: We (Finally) Have a Winner!

Way back in September we launched our latest price-guessing contest: Guess the Price Round 7: West Seattle Almost-Beach. Forty readers made guesses this round before the contest deadline.

3015 64th Ave SW, Seattle, WA 98116Today’s “Guess the Price” guest star is 3015 64th Ave SW in West Seattle.

This round’s home hit the market last Wednesday with an asking price of $529,000. It last sold almost 13 years ago in November 2000 for $320,000, so today’s asking price represents average annual appreciation of just under 4 percent. For reference, the Case-Shiller index for Seattle has gained roughly 3 percent per year over the same period, a rate that would put the current value of this home at $475,000.

Your guesses ranged from $425,000 to $540,000. The average price guessed was $512,220, and the median guess was $515,000. Here’s the plot of all the guesses, with the final close price & date marked in green:

Price Guesses: 3015 64th Ave SW, Seattle, WA 98116

According to the NWMLS, the home sold on January 31 (almost five months after listing), with a closing price of $451,000. Only one person guessed lower than the sale price. However, that person was not the closest. The closest guess was $468,850 by Anna. Congratulations!

Here’s the difference between the average guess and the final sale price our contests so far:

  1. -2.2%
  2. +5.5%
  3. -10.5%
  4. +10.0%
  5. +2.8%
  6. -2.4%
  7. +13.6%

Bummer, you guys were way off this time around. Never thought I would say this, but apparently we have far too optimistic a crowd here! Heh.

Stay tuned in the next few weeks, when we’ll kick off another round of Guess the Price.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

16 comments:

  1. 1
    Topdog says:

    Wow, too optimistic of a forum crowd. John L Scott doesn’t seem to think so.
    However this is just a matter of definition and perspective. In this world of stagnate wage growth, I am optimistic homes will continue their decline in cost to become affordable to the average wage earner. At some point between real job and wage growth or price deflation the economy will reach an equilibrium.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. 2
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Topdog @ 1 – You’re funny. I don’t know where you live; but for home prices to continue declining, they have to be declining already. They’re not.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. 3
    mike says:

    RE: Topdog @ 1 – This wasn’t an easy house to price – lots of huge positives and a bunch of moderate negatives to balance them out. The kind of property that only appeals to the right buyer.

    As far as the positives go, in city right off the beach is pretty unique for those willing to pay for it. For that to be priced for the average wage earner, the negatives would need to be a bit more severe – otherwise the property will have above average appeal.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. 4
    Erik says:

    I miss the thumbs down button. :(

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. 5

    By whatsmyname @ 2:

    RE: Topdog @ 1 – You’re funny. I don’t know where you live; but for home prices to continue declining, they have to be declining already. They’re not.

    What, you don’t think that a property selling for less than what it was originally listed for is evidence of declining prices? Apparently you don’t have a degree in communications! ;-)

    Oh, BTW, in response to your comment in the other thread, there are stats on new listings, but I think those include properties which were either cancelled or expired and then re-listed.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. 6
    Jonness says:

    IOW, paranoid bankers tightened their lending standards, and now Mr. and Mrs. stupid are finding it difficult to overpay for houses.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. 7
    Erik says:

    RE: Jonness @ 6
    Yeah, I am having trouble getting financed myself with the whole no job thing. I wish it was 2006 again so I could get financed. I can’t even get financed with a big down payment. Does anyone know how to get financed without a job? I won’t walk away from my mortgage again. I promise…. $ :) $. I learned my lesson, I swear!!

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  8. 8
    Jonness says:

    Erik:

    As far as I know, the days of getting a mortgage when you have no income are over. Are you buying a second place, or are you trying to refi your current place?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. 9
    SaffyThePook says:

    By Erik @ 7:

    RE: Jonness @ 6
    Yeah, I am having trouble getting financed myself with the whole no job thing. I wish it was 2006 again so I could get financed. I can’t even get financed with a big down payment. Does anyone know how to get financed without a job? I won’t walk away from my mortgage again. I promise…. $ :) $. I learned my lesson, I swear!!

    Apparently the banks did too. Fool me once…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  10. 10
    Erik says:

    RE: Jonness @ 8
    I sold my place in Kirkland and I want to buy a new place. I want to make buying, fixing, and selling my job as opposed to working for the man. Banks want verified income to loan money. I get $562/week after taxes for 2.5 years for unemployment, but they won’t accept it. I told them I would put 60k down on a place selling for 99k and they said no.

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  11. 11
    Erik says:

    RE: Erik @ 10
    Aha! No-doc loan is the way to go.
    https://www.lendingtree.com/glossary/what-is-no-doc-mortgage

    And the cycle repeats…

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  12. 12
    ARDELL says:

    In defense of all the “optimists” every other house in the area for 90 days before this was listed, and since that time, have sold for a median price of 1.29 times Assessed Value. The range being 1.23 to 1.38. This house sold outside of the norm at 1.12 times Assessed Value. So it wasn’t over priced based on “the comps”. There was just something about this house that caused it to sell for much less than “the data” would suggest it should.

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  13. 13
    Erik says:

    RE: ARDELL @ 12
    Cause you weren’t the agent. You would have gotten a much higher price because of your artistic ability to make a property attractive.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  14. 14
    drshort says:

    By Erik @ 11:

    RE: Erik @ 10
    Aha! No-doc loan is the way to go.
    https://www.lendingtree.com/glossary/what-is-no-doc-mortgage

    And the cycle repeats…

    As of January 10th, no doc loans are now illegal. There are pretty strict “ability to repay” requirements for mortgages now which essentially make a repeat of mid-2000 lending practices very unlikely.

    http://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201301_cfpb_ability-to-repay-summary.pdf

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  15. 15
    Azucar says:

    If you extend the trend line of our guesses (other than the one outlier at $425k on 10/20), the actual sale would pretty much be close to it or within the scatter around it…. So we, as a group, at least have a good feel for how prices come down as a function of weeks since listing. We just didn’t think it would take this long!

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  16. 16
    SaffyThePook says:

    By Erik @ 10:

    RE: Jonness @ 8
    I sold my place in Kirkland and I want to buy a new place. I want to make buying, fixing, and selling my job as opposed to working for the man. Banks want verified income to loan money. I get $562/week after taxes for 2.5 years for unemployment, but they won’t accept it. I told them I would put 60k down on a place selling for 99k and they said no.

    Like I said before, maybe it’s not your income that’s the problem.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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