Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

16 responses to “Guess the Price Round 7: We (Finally) Have a Winner!”

  1. Topdog

    Wow, too optimistic of a forum crowd. John L Scott doesn’t seem to think so.
    However this is just a matter of definition and perspective. In this world of stagnate wage growth, I am optimistic homes will continue their decline in cost to become affordable to the average wage earner. At some point between real job and wage growth or price deflation the economy will reach an equilibrium.

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  2. whatsmyname

    RE: Topdog @ 1 – You’re funny. I don’t know where you live; but for home prices to continue declining, they have to be declining already. They’re not.

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  3. mike

    RE: Topdog @ 1 – This wasn’t an easy house to price – lots of huge positives and a bunch of moderate negatives to balance them out. The kind of property that only appeals to the right buyer.

    As far as the positives go, in city right off the beach is pretty unique for those willing to pay for it. For that to be priced for the average wage earner, the negatives would need to be a bit more severe – otherwise the property will have above average appeal.

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  4. Erik

    I miss the thumbs down button. :(

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    By whatsmyname @ 2:

    RE: Topdog @ 1 – You’re funny. I don’t know where you live; but for home prices to continue declining, they have to be declining already. They’re not.

    What, you don’t think that a property selling for less than what it was originally listed for is evidence of declining prices? Apparently you don’t have a degree in communications! ;-)

    Oh, BTW, in response to your comment in the other thread, there are stats on new listings, but I think those include properties which were either cancelled or expired and then re-listed.

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  6. Jonness

    IOW, paranoid bankers tightened their lending standards, and now Mr. and Mrs. stupid are finding it difficult to overpay for houses.

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  7. Erik

    RE: Jonness @ 6
    Yeah, I am having trouble getting financed myself with the whole no job thing. I wish it was 2006 again so I could get financed. I can’t even get financed with a big down payment. Does anyone know how to get financed without a job? I won’t walk away from my mortgage again. I promise…. $ :) $. I learned my lesson, I swear!!

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  8. Jonness

    Erik:

    As far as I know, the days of getting a mortgage when you have no income are over. Are you buying a second place, or are you trying to refi your current place?

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  9. SaffyThePook

    By Erik @ 7:

    RE: Jonness @ 6
    Yeah, I am having trouble getting financed myself with the whole no job thing. I wish it was 2006 again so I could get financed. I can’t even get financed with a big down payment. Does anyone know how to get financed without a job? I won’t walk away from my mortgage again. I promise…. $ :) $. I learned my lesson, I swear!!

    Apparently the banks did too. Fool me once…

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  10. Erik

    RE: Jonness @ 8
    I sold my place in Kirkland and I want to buy a new place. I want to make buying, fixing, and selling my job as opposed to working for the man. Banks want verified income to loan money. I get $562/week after taxes for 2.5 years for unemployment, but they won’t accept it. I told them I would put 60k down on a place selling for 99k and they said no.

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  11. Erik

    RE: Erik @ 10
    Aha! No-doc loan is the way to go.
    https://www.lendingtree.com/glossary/what-is-no-doc-mortgage

    And the cycle repeats…

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  12. ARDELL

    In defense of all the “optimists” every other house in the area for 90 days before this was listed, and since that time, have sold for a median price of 1.29 times Assessed Value. The range being 1.23 to 1.38. This house sold outside of the norm at 1.12 times Assessed Value. So it wasn’t over priced based on “the comps”. There was just something about this house that caused it to sell for much less than “the data” would suggest it should.

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  13. Erik

    RE: ARDELL @ 12
    Cause you weren’t the agent. You would have gotten a much higher price because of your artistic ability to make a property attractive.

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  14. drshort

    By Erik @ 11:

    RE: Erik @ 10
    Aha! No-doc loan is the way to go.
    https://www.lendingtree.com/glossary/what-is-no-doc-mortgage

    And the cycle repeats…

    As of January 10th, no doc loans are now illegal. There are pretty strict “ability to repay” requirements for mortgages now which essentially make a repeat of mid-2000 lending practices very unlikely.

    http://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201301_cfpb_ability-to-repay-summary.pdf

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  15. Azucar

    If you extend the trend line of our guesses (other than the one outlier at $425k on 10/20), the actual sale would pretty much be close to it or within the scatter around it…. So we, as a group, at least have a good feel for how prices come down as a function of weeks since listing. We just didn’t think it would take this long!

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  16. SaffyThePook

    By Erik @ 10:

    RE: Jonness @ 8
    I sold my place in Kirkland and I want to buy a new place. I want to make buying, fixing, and selling my job as opposed to working for the man. Banks want verified income to loan money. I get $562/week after taxes for 2.5 years for unemployment, but they won’t accept it. I told them I would put 60k down on a place selling for 99k and they said no.

    Like I said before, maybe it’s not your income that’s the problem.

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