Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

23 responses to “Consumer Confidence Keeps Climbing”

  1. softwarengineer

    Yes Tim, the New Articles are Below the Census One

    324 Foreclosed Homes in Kent alone in SE King County:

    http://www.ziprealty.com/homes-for-sale/list/seattle/by-city/Kent,WA/detailed

    Some nice looking ones are selling for under $150K.

    All the Seattle cities have plenty of these listings BTW…

    Consumer confidence to buy a home does have hope.

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  2. Erik

    It is interesting how consumer confidence is the highest right before a recession. That is where the saying comes from to buy when everyone says to sell and to sell when everyone says to buy. I think we may go into recession when consumer confidence reaches 100. That would follow a pattern.

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  3. mike

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1 – You realize you’re picking houses in one of the worst, hardest hit parts of KC and generalizing to the entire county.

    “The number of unsold foreclosures [in 98030] is 32.9% greater than in Kent, and 300.7% higher than the national average.”

    Whereas up where I’m at foreclosures are 90% lower than the national average, although I’m still in King County.

    That’s a 30x difference just a few miles away.

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  4. softwarengineer

    RE: mike @ 3

    LOL Mike

    Open the website before you allege. Type in any Seattle area zip code. The facts are clear, foreclosures are caused not by prime real estate locations, no, not at all. They’re spread throughout the Seattle area like pimples. They’re caused by:

    1. Lay offs of household incomes(s).
    2. Health problems.

    These are not “location, location, location” exceptions; in fact your “special high cost areas” tend to have more elderly and childless households; as the elderly there get hit harder for financial/health reasons than the X Gens. The Millenials aren’t really buying in your neighborhoods, they generally can’t qualify/afford the rents/mortgages.

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 4 – There have always been foreclosures and most likely always will be. The real issues are how and how are those foreclosures being absorbed? Are third parties buying most of them or are most of them being bought back by the bank? Right now there are a lot fewer than say four years ago, and most of them seem to be being bought by third parties.

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  6. Erik

    RE: mike @ 3
    I imagine you are talking about 98117 area. Corndogs was totally right when he said dumb money is the last to figure it out. 98030 would be considered dumb money and therefore it will recover last. 98117 is a nice area and would not be considered dumb money, so it will recover way before 98030. I am afraid people aren’t dying to move to kent, I think living there is something people are not proud of, so nobody is jumping to buy houses there when the market crashed. In 98117, people are climbing over top one another to buy there for a discount price.

    As far as that remodel you posted on the last thread for $699,000. No way I could ever afford that. I am big dog in the respect that I am right on here about real estate predictions when others are wrong. Atleast that has been the trend if you look at track records. I am looking for a house for under $200k that needs less than $50k in work done to it. Hopefully one day I can buy something like what you posted, but at this point it isn’t a possibility. To add to that, I am unemployed and cannot get any casheroo to buy anything, so my max I could spend is the $128k I made on my last remodel. I wouldn’t have offered to top your neighbor’s trees if I had $699k to spend on a house.

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  7. softwarengineer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 5

    Perhaps They Aren’t Thinking Out of Tim’s META Box?

    Sometimes we think there’s one real estate source….hades, there’s many….hit Seattle Foreclosed Properties on a search engine and explore on your own….

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  8. softwarengineer

    RE: Erik @ 6

    Erik, Sorry to Hear About Your Unemployed Situation

    I hope you saved a big bunch for a rainy day….

    Here’s hoping you land a better job too and soon…..don’t go to the hot N Dakota job market until you know you have a job for sure….bring an RV there if you have to, the available housing is extremely scarce and priced way too high, if you can find it. Be ready for a quick shutdown of this shale gold rush town too, they always do.

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  9. Erik

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8
    I have considered doing oil in north Dakota. I bet I would be unhappy. I have a phone interview for an aerospace gig tomorrow. Maybe that will workout. I have that $128k of cash from my remodel. I get $562/week after taxes for unemployment. I am not hurting.

    I spend my days doing whatever comes to mind. Not too bad of a life. Today I went to the junk yard to get replacement parts for my pickup. Nobody was there. There are good things about being unemployed. I went on a 3 day hike last weekend. Couldn’t do that easily with a job. The main reason I want a job is to increase my retirement funds. If the bank of ireland goes back to 300, I will retire.

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  10. Ira Sacharoff

    By Erik @ 9:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8
    I have considered doing oil in north Dakota. I bet I would be unhappy. I have a phone interview for an aerospace gig tomorrow. Maybe that will workout. I have that $128k of cash from my remodel. I get $562/week after taxes for unemployment. I am not hurting.

    I spend my days doing whatever comes to mind. Not too bad of a life. Today I went to the junk yard to get replacement parts for my pickup. Nobody was there. There are good things about being unemployed. I went on a 3 day hike last weekend. Couldn’t do that easily with a job. The main reason I want a job is to increase my retirement funds. If the bank of ireland goes back to 300, I will retire.

    You think Kent is bad, try Williston, North Dakota.
    About the dumb money. There are folks who made a lot of money investing in real estate in Kent, and there are folks who had their homes foreclosed on in Sammamish. Because lending standards were practically non existent, a lot of people who should not have been given loans bought houses in places like Kent. And consequently, those places saw a lot more foreclosures and short sales. But you know what? You’d have made a ton of money had you bought a house near downtown Kent a couple of years ago, buying at the bottom.
    There’s a lot of ways to make money and lose money in real estate. People buy houses in Kent because somebody’s got to provide services to those who live in Madison Park and West Bellevue and Laurelhurst and Sunset Hill, and those people aren’t going to be able to afford living in the places they work. There aren’t a lot of maids living in Sammamish.

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  11. Erik

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 10
    I did pretty well myself in kirkland buying for $92.7k and selling for $233k. Plus I didn’t have to live in a depressed area. People get in their heads that they gotta live in ghettos because those places recover most. I don’t really think that is true. I suffered in north everett for 6 years and had to short sell for -$100k. In kirkland, I made a +128k profit in 2 years. If I was buying rentals, I may buy in those ghettos since I only have to pick up the rent check. To live there and remodel is something I will not put myself through again. I use to have that same logic. From my experience, my logic has changed.
    For remodeling it is best to have the worst house in the nicest area.

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  12. mike

    RE: Erik @ 11 – Juanita is the Greenwood of Kirkland.

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  13. Erik

    RE: mike @ 12
    No way man. Kingsgate is much worse. Totem lake is also way worse than Juanita. We got some respect is the last couple years. There were condos in Juanita selling for over a million.

    Moving from north Everett to Juanita, I felt like royalty. Maybe that clouded my perception moving from a place like north Everett? I like Fremont much better, but for the money, Juanita is not too bad. They have really improved that area since downtown kirkland took in Juanita as within the city limits.

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  14. boater

    If you haven’t been to Greenwood lately it’s gentrified a bit. I’ve thought of looking for rental purchases out there.

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  15. doug

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8

    Williston north dakota is beautiful and yes
    there is a good paying job for everyone who goes to Williston Watford city and also practically every other city in the state .You do not need a job in advance you will be hired somewhere almost immediately.and its every kind of job you can imagine not just oil. Starting pay is 18.00 an hour for wal mart. 100k a year starting for most jobs its bizarro world and its real. Things are a lot better than say two years ago there are apartments and you no longer need the rv or man camp. Also buying older houses in the city of williston right before winter will work out bigtime. Old timers there want out as its crazy there, they have never lived in a big city.

    If you are wondering where all the nice people went to its the northern plains. The people moving there know they have found something special and the positive energy of this place puts a smile on everyones faces.

    Anyone who is questioning the Bakken do not believe what you read,, Go on a vacation to north dakota. Two days of driving gets you there from seattle . I never believed it either until I spent last summer there. There is nothing as promising and hopeful in america right now as North Dakota.

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  16. doug

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8

    Actually the truth is the bakken has at least thirty years of oil and natural gas. They have not even hit the second level. This new technology for fracking is in the very beginning stages and some believe it is as big as saudi arabia. The oil companies are making massive investments for a reason not a flash in the pan see ya wouldnt want to be ya.

    Its real

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  17. Kmac

    By doug @ 15:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 8

    Williston north dakota is beautiful and yes
    there is a good paying job for everyone who goes to Williston Watford city and also practically every other city in the state .You do not need a job in advance you will be hired somewhere almost immediately.and its every kind of job you can imagine not just oil. Starting pay is 18.00 an hour for wal mart. 100k a year starting for most jobs its bizarro world and its real. Things are a lot better than say two years ago there are apartments and you no longer need the rv or man camp. Also buying older houses in the city of williston right before winter will work out bigtime. Old timers there want out as its crazy there, they have never lived in a big city.

    If you are wondering where all the nice people went to its the northern plains. The people moving there know they have found something special and the positive energy of this place puts a smile on everyones faces.

    Anyone who is questioning the Bakken do not believe what you read,, Go on a vacation to north dakota. Two days of driving gets you there from seattle . I never believed it either until I spent last summer there. There is nothing as promising and hopeful in america right now as North Dakota.

    Lights out CAN come very quickly.
    Williston had a similar “BOOM” in the late 70’s – early eighties and one morning it was lights out. That time the city had overbuilt its infrastructure because it didn’t see the axe fall and really suffered for it. They had just paid off the bonds for the folly just prior to this run up.

    My folks live within 1.5 hrs. of there and they report that the long time locals are scared to death for their physical safety anymore and many are leaving. It is overrun with a lot of ne’er-do-wells.

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  18. Ira Sacharoff

    By Erik @ 13:

    RE: mike @ 12
    No way man. Kingsgate is much worse. Totem lake is also way worse than Juanita. We got some respect is the last couple years. There were condos in Juanita selling for over a million.

    Moving from north Everett to Juanita, I felt like royalty. Maybe that clouded my perception moving from a place like north Everett? I like Fremont much better, but for the money, Juanita is not too bad. They have really improved that area since downtown kirkland took in Juanita as within the city limits.

    Wait a minute. What’s wrong with Greenwood?

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  19. wreckingbull

    RE: Kmac @ 17 – I’m pretty sure Doug’s post was a troll, although I can’t be certain, especially the part about all the ‘nice people moving there’. I passed through a year ago and I have never met more psychopaths in my life.

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  20. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18 – There are good and bad areas of just about any place, including Skyway and Kent. The only place I can think of where I wouldn’t move would be anywhere within the city limits of Seattle (because I wouldn’t want to be represented by the City Council and mayor and because I prefer more rural areas).

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  21. mike

    RE: boater @ 14 – I’m there almost every day, nothing really wrong with it but it’s still one of the less expensive, transitional neighborhoods on the edge of others that are more traditionally sought after. Per Erik’s case, it’s also the one that still has a bunch of the older condos selling at distress sale prices. If you go a little further down into either Ballard or Phinney Ridge the condo stock is nicer and less people are still trying to fire sale their bubble era purchases.

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  22. mike

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 18 – The peat bog and Aurora. But those factors certainly do not affect every part of the neighborhood.

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  23. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: mike @ 22 – Seattle used to have a nice little map of the known areas affected, but they removed it. If someone can find a current link, please post it.

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