Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

31 responses to “Weekly Open Thread (2014-04-21)”

  1. softwarengineer

    The College Graduates in Seattle with MASSIVE Student Loans

    Better hope their parents who “co-signed” don’t die soon…..or the MASSIVE loan principle is all due at the time of their parents’ death….

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/grieving-borrowers-told-repay-student-loan-040239155.html

    Imagine the buffoon parents co-signing for college loans in the first place. They deserve the cheaper smelly nursing homes, assuming they need this extended care in the future, in that case.

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  2. pfft

    By softwarengineer @ 1:

    The College Graduates in Seattle with MASSIVE Student Loans

    Better hope their parents who “co-signed” don’t die soon…..or the MASSIVE loan principle is all due at the time of their parents’ death….

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/grieving-borrowers-told-repay-student-loan-040239155.html

    Imagine the buffoon parents co-signing for college loans in the first place. They deserve the cheaper smelly nursing homes, assuming they need this extended care in the future, in that case.

    just pass a wall street financial transactions tax and but that money into free college for all. people won’t graduate with debt and it will make it easier for class mobility.

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  3. softwarengineer

    RE: pfft @ 2

    We Basically Had That Already in the 70s, Without Government Welfare

    It was called about 3-4 billion people less on planet earth back in 1970.

    Happy Earth Day Pfft…..its today and its still for depopulating America [or in 1970 it was, because population was a HORRIFYING problem back then too]. BTW, Democrats invented Earth Day. I’ve got my earth Day shirt on, how about you Pffft?

    I see on conservative FOX News they call people for depopulation RACISTS now….LOL

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  4. ChrisM

    https://krebsonsecurity.com/2014/04/phishers-divert-home-loan-earnest-money/

    Real estate and title agencies are being warned about a new fraud scheme in which email bandits target consumers who are in the process of purchasing a home.

    In this scheme, the attackers intercept emails from title agencies providing wire transfer information for borrowers to transmit earnest money for an upcoming transaction. The scammers then substitute the title company’s bank account information with their own, and the unsuspecting would-be homeowner wires their down payment directly to the fraudsters.

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  5. pfft

    By softwarengineer @ 3:

    RE: pfft @ 2

    We Basically Had That Already in the 70s, Without Government Welfare

    It was called about 3-4 billion people less on planet earth back in 1970.

    Happy Earth Day Pfft…..its today and its still for depopulating America [or in 1970 it was, because population was a HORRIFYING problem back then too]. BTW, Democrats invented Earth Day. I’ve got my earth Day shirt on, how about you Pffft?

    I see on conservative FOX News they call people for depopulation RACISTS now….LOL

    how do you know the world is overpopulated? I want somethng like a peer-reviewed study not your rantings.

    if you look at something like deep poverty that is actually declining. global warming isn’t so much overpopulation as it is a political problem.

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  6. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ChrisM @ 4 – Thanks Chris! I copied the link and credited you on our FB page: https://www.facebook.com/karyandchina

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  7. pfft

    Clive Bundy.

    LOL.

    he really is the embodiment of a significant portion of the republican base.

    that is all.

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  8. wreckingbull

    RE: pfft @ 5 – Shame on you pfft. Not only are you a heartless bastard when it comes to enslaving our young with debt, I now see you are a climate change denier. Have you been hanging out with Hannity?

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

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  9. pfft

    By wreckingbull @ 8:

    RE: pfft @ 5 – Shame on you pfft. Not only are you a heartless bastard when it comes to enslaving our young with debt, I now see you are a climate change denier. Have you been hanging out with Hannity?

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/earth-insight/2014/mar/14/nasa-civilisation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

    let’s stop with debt is slavery thing. taking out a loan is not slavery. slavery is slavery.

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  10. pfft

    “Not only are you a heartless bastard when it comes to enslaving our young with debt”

    It’s always amazing to me when people tell me what I believe. What is even more amazing is in #2 I say the complete opposite.

    “just pass a wall street financial transactions tax and but that money into free college for all. people won’t graduate with debt and it will make it easier for class mobility.”

    What is funny is someone the other day called me an obamabot! What a joke. You guys have this caricature to me that doesn’t square up with anything I’ve written. See #2. Do you guys even read anything I write? Truth is you guys desperately need me to be an obamabot so you won’t need to engage me. I suspect perhaps some of you can’t engage with me so you create a straw man to make yourselves feel better.

    LOL.

    Study after study shows that a college degree is worth it. The only people that say you don’t need college are those with advanced degrees. The truth is not only are you shut out of many opportunities but you are more likely to be unemployed longer. The unemployment level right now is much higher for non-college graduates.

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  11. Blurtman

    RE: pfft @ 9 – Folks say there is life after a default. Although these folks would not be welcomed at the club.

    But a number of the members have nice positions in Sallie Mae and own loan service companies. We took a few senators on a hunting junket recently. We applaud reaching into folks’ Social Security checks as they continue to pay, pay, pay! Bullish on America!

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  12. ChrisM

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 6 – You write “Sellers need to double check their listings for accuracy.” but I allege a more effective strategy would be for the MLS to offer a bounty for agents to report on incorrect details in listings.

    To elaborate, the listing agent gets penalized for every violation a random agent finds. So, the listing agent has an incentive to ensure an accurate listing. Very basic game theory…

    Consumers are completely blown off when they list examples of MLS violations. I speak from experience…

    As things stand now, the MLS has no interest in ensuring accuracy (or MLS rule-compliance) in listings.

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  13. ChrisM

    Does anyone have experience with the people that offer to buy a house in 1 day? I saw a couple of these signs today while stuck in traffic and got to wondering. I think this is a clear example where the economist’s model of the “rational” thinker fall apart. I allege a “rational” home-owner would never sell to these people, instead they would sell their house via the MLS where it would get the widest exposure (or, at the least, do some sort of FSBO).

    So, given that the “buy your house now” business exists, this then proves prima facie that a non-rational market exists. Do any economists care to weigh in?

    Also, I’m amused by the current housing results vs. forecasts. Please understand that I believe “economics as a science” is snake oil. Otherwise, wouldn’t economists take current weather conditions into their forecasts? Does “Meteorology 101″ need to be added to an Econ degree? To clarify, if economists’ misses rely on poor weather, then I expect that to be accounted for when the weather actually happens, not 4+ weeks later!!! The current miss also includes Southern California (and other significant geographic regions), and their weather was not unusual.

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  14. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ChrisM @ 12 – Interesting idea (rewards for pointing out inaccurate listings). They did start a program where you can click on a listing to point out an error, but there’s no reward. I’ve not noticed it making any difference, but it probably does in extreme cases.

    The example I gave though was the agent not listing any lot size. Lot size is not a required field, so there wouldn’t be a fine. But for a seller, not listing a lot size means anyone looking for a lost over say 10,000 feet, they wouldn’t find the listing even if the lot was 400,000 feet!

    And unfortunately, lot and house size data isn’t available for all lots in all counties, so I don’t expect those items to become mandatory to input.

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  15. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ChrisM @ 13 – As to the first point, I assume you’re talking about the “Ugly Houses” people? I’ve no experience with anything of that type, but as to economists, they do take into account that markets are not perfect and not everyone is rational. If markets were perfect, the time to cross the 520 bridge would always equal the time to cross I-90. It’s just how do you account for imperfect markets and information which is the problem.

    As to the second part, I’m not sure you’re complaining about economists. I don’t know that economists make predictions about house sales. Perhaps Tim could chime in on that, but I think that’s more an area for statisticians. As to the weather, it just becomes the scapegoat when the forecast isn’t correct. In the stock market the common scapegoat is “profit taking.”

    And in any case, I think you’re totally understating how serious the weather has been in California. ;-)

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iBlDU8e7om0

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  16. Kary L. Krismer

    I like Richard Sherman, but isn’t his being one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people the most ridiculous pick since President Obama was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize?

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  17. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 16:

    I like Richard Sherman, but isn’t his being one of Time Magazine’s 100 most influential people the most ridiculous pick since President Obama was awarded a Nobel Peace Prize?

    I don’t know him personally but I am not sure I would trash talk Sherman like that:)

    Picking Obama for a Nobel wasn’t that ridiculous. Doesn’t everyone remember what a relief most of the world felt to have Obama follow Bush? Bush was a terrible president.

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  18. Blurtman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16 – Little Wayne number 7 on the list. Tupac lives!

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  19. Blurtman

    Is Sotomayor that dumb to believe that only people of color, or minorities, or whatever the PC term of the day is, speak with accents or come from immigrant families where English is not the primary language?

    I know she has made a career of selling this schtick, but the logic in her position is non-existent.

    I’ll state the obvious and point out that she is an unabashed racist.

    http://www.vanityfair.com/online/daily/2014/04/sonia-sotomayor-blasts-supreme-court-affirmative-action

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  20. wreckingbull

    RE: pfft @ 17 – A Nobel prize winner should be chosen for who whey are and what they have done, not who they are not. As usual, logic fail. It really does not matter though, since he continued the Bush doctrine to a tee, and even added some new twists, such as trying to lock up any journalist exercising their first amendment rights. Pathetic.

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  21. Kary L. Krismer

    By wreckingbull @ 20:

    RE: pfft @ 17 -It really does not matter though, since he continued the Bush doctrine to a tee, and even added some new twists, such as trying to lock up any journalist exercising their first amendment rights. Pathetic.

    Continued? Continued and expanded! Bush never assassinated US Citizens using drones.

    What’s interesting is we now have a very weak US President dealing with a Russia he doesn’t recognize or understand. His weakness will likely result in Russia doing more than what it would otherwise. So it’s somewhat ironic that the very existence of a President with a Nobel Peace Price may result in WWIII, but hey, he’ll still have that Nobel Peace Prize (assuming it isn’t destroyed in an attack). And of course, Obamacare will cover the radiation burns! So really having a very weak ignorant president is nothing to worry about.

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  22. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blurtman @ 19 – I have a bit of a problem with voters deciding the rights of minorities, but more so when it’s restricting their rights relative to other people. I have less of a problem with it when it’s merely saying that they’ll have the same rights.

    So, on a topic of say gay marriage I do have a problem with voters saying that they cannot marry. Ironically I’m also against voters saying they can marry, because I just don’t see it as being an issue that should be decided by popular vote.

    On school admissions I don’t have a problem at all with removing racial preferences. Part of that is I don’t buy the BS that having such preferences doesn’t remove other more qualified applicants from being accepted.

    I will admit though that this area presents tough topics, and probably why the courts have such a hard time dealing with it.

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  23. pfft

    By wreckingbull @ 20:

    RE: pfft @ 17 – A Nobel prize winner should be chosen for who whey are and what they have done, not who they are not. As usual, logic fail. It really does not matter though, since he continued the Bush doctrine to a tee, and even added some new twists, such as trying to lock up any journalist exercising their first amendment rights. Pathetic.

    you didn’t get anything right in your statement. google around.

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  24. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 21:

    By wreckingbull @ 20:
    RE: pfft @ 17 -It really does not matter though, since he continued the Bush doctrine to a tee, and even added some new twists, such as trying to lock up any journalist exercising their first amendment rights. Pathetic.

    Continued? Continued and expanded!

    NO! you people don’t pay attention.

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  25. Blurtman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 22 – Yes, I understand your point of view. But Sotomayor is no more a minority than a German American or Argentinean American (who would likely be Italian or German.). Clearly she was from a disadvantaged background, but she succeeded academically in high school and college. That is not really that unusual a story. But she has draped herself in this phony minority image, and has made quite a career out of promoting that image. Seems to have worked for her, but the rest of us don’t have to play along with the charade. But she has to keep banging that drum.

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  26. wreckingbull

    RE: pfft @ 24 – Pfft, there comes a time when we have to admit that what be believed to be true is simply not the case. Rather than yelling “NO!” (like a child who learns that there is no Santa) admit that your dogmatic beliefs are crumbling.

    Larry Lessig had no problem admitting he was wrong about Obama. Why not pfft?

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  27. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 24:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 21:
    By wreckingbull @ 20:
    RE: pfft @ 17 -It really does not matter though, since he continued the Bush doctrine to a tee, and even added some new twists, such as trying to lock up any journalist exercising their first amendment rights. Pathetic.

    Continued? Continued and expanded!

    NO! you people don’t pay attention.

    You’re worse than Losh!

    Obama continued Bush’s pullout in Iraq and expanded it by failing to negotiate an agreement to retain any troops.
    Obama applied Bush’s Iraq surge policy to Afghanistan (even though he was against the surge in Iraq).
    Obama expanded the drone program in number of attacks.
    Obama expanded the drone program to include the intentional assassination of US citizens.

    But hey, go ahead keeping your head in the sand, and while you’re at it, go ahead an continue to deny that you’re not a partisan democrat and a huge supporter of Obama.

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  28. Blurtman

    It’s time to play – Flip This Sammamish House!

    First contestant, an appealing but in no way unique Sammamish McMansion, originally purchased for $771,990 in July 2012, which now can be yours for the very reasonable price of $975,000! A bargain at twice the price!

    You too can enjoy an annual appreciation of 15% per year! And no worries that your home is jammed onto a postage sized lot. Your neighbors will definitely back up your story of solid value for the price, as they are all in the same desperate boat. Step up and be the bag holder. We are counting on you, mate!

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/21096-SE-6th-Pl-Sammamish-WA-98074/112896501_zpid/

    Contestant number 2, come on down! This architectural stunner was originally purchased for $630,000 in October 2013. Designed by a guy whose used to date a third cousin of Frank Lloyd Wright. No that that Wright. And no, this fellow was no architect. This guy owned a deli in Burien. But nonetheless, imagine the inspired stylings of the baloney slicer as you luxuriate in this overpriced beauty! Yes, and you too will experience an annual price appreciation of 40%! We guarantee it!

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1918-202nd-Pl-SE-Sammamish-WA-98075/70577701_zpid/

    Bubble? What bubble? There ain’t no stinking bubble!

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  29. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blurtman @ 28 – I’m not going to comment on the reasonableness of either, but I will point out that the first sale for your second candidate was a house advertised as 80% complete, cash only, short sale. Sort of a trifecta of bad things when it comes to price.

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  30. Blurtman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 29 – Thanks, Kary, I actually like #2, but not at the price of $759,000. I do think it will sell at close to that.

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  31. Blurtman

    13% per year from 2010 to 2014. What has been the annual rate of inflation over that period? How can the premium possibly be justified?

    Year Built:1984
    Last Sold:Jun 2010 for $428,000

    For Sale: $650,000

    http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/21311-SE-20th-St-Sammamish-WA-98075/48670860_zpid/

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