Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Slips, Middle & High Increase

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $279,094 (down 0.2%)
  • Mid Tier: $279,094 – $439,485
  • Hi Tier: > $439,485 (up 0.2%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through February 2014.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

The low tier continued to fall in February, but the middle and high tiers both inched up. Between January and February, the low tier fell 0.1%, the middle tier rose 0.4%, and the high tier gained 1.0%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through February 2014.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year changes slipped a bit for the low tier in February, but increased for the middle and high tiers. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of February – Low: +17.8%, Med: +14.2%, Hi: +11.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 26.9% off peak for the low tier, 19.0% off peak for the middle tier, and 13.8% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 04.29.2014)

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

9 comments:

  1. 1

    Perhaps the Lower Tiers Need More Buyers

    Past foreclosure, not-to-worry….the FHA will let you buy anyway, if your loss of income qualifies….just fill out the FHA forms and go back to Dr Oz, or whatever you’re watching on daytime TV….

    https://homes.yahoo.com/news/the-fha-back-to-work-program–a-second-chance-for-homeowners-194837459.html

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  2. 2
    No Name Guy says:

    Didn’t the low tier crack first once the bubble burst? Looks that way based on months from peak graph.

    Could it be the harbinger of price trends for the mid and high? We’ll see. I suspect that like so many other things, those on the low end get hit first (e.g. worker bees get the pink slip long before upper management gets their bonus cut), then the mid tier and on up the food chain.

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  3. 3
    wwdes says:

    RE: No Name Guy @ 2 – Or you may also assume lower tier has moved to middle tier because of price raise.

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  4. 4

    RE: No Name Guy @ 2 – I don’t know about the low tier, but the low end did drop first. That was due to people believing press reports about the availability of credit. People in the low end believed the press, while people in the middle and upper ends knew they could get credit.

    With the full blown economic crisis hitting about a year later, that ended up working well for those low end buyers.

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  5. 5
    goblue72 says:

    RE: No Name Guy @ 2 – Except today’s labor report showed solid job growth, and revisions upward to January and February.

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  6. 6

    By No Name Guy @ 2:

    Didn’t the low tier crack first once the bubble burst? Looks that way based on months from peak graph.

    Could it be the harbinger of price trends for the mid and high? We’ll see. I suspect that like so many other things, those on the low end get hit first (e.g. worker bees get the pink slip long before upper management gets their bonus cut), then the mid tier and on up the food chain.

    Not as I remembered it. What I remember it was that the low tier was the last to join the party, that after the middle and high tiers cooled off a bit the low tier was still surging. Maybe when it’s at that point, it’s an indicator that the bubble is going to cool.
    I think last month the low tier was the strongest. This month it’s not. I’m not seeing any patterns.

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  7. 7
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: goblue72 @ 5 – And a labor participation rate of 62.8% – a 35 year low. Pretty sad.

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  8. 8
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4

    The super jumbo loans went out first. Over a million…in some cases over $800,000. That is loan amount not purchase price. That was the first signal that changes were coming…and fast.

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  9. 9

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 6 – I realized today that we don’t have to rely on our recollection. If you look at the first graph, it was the low tier which peaked first and headed down.

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