Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

9 responses to “Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Slips, Middle & High Increase”

  1. softwarengineer

    Perhaps the Lower Tiers Need More Buyers

    Past foreclosure, not-to-worry….the FHA will let you buy anyway, if your loss of income qualifies….just fill out the FHA forms and go back to Dr Oz, or whatever you’re watching on daytime TV….

    https://homes.yahoo.com/news/the-fha-back-to-work-program–a-second-chance-for-homeowners-194837459.html

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  2. No Name Guy

    Didn’t the low tier crack first once the bubble burst? Looks that way based on months from peak graph.

    Could it be the harbinger of price trends for the mid and high? We’ll see. I suspect that like so many other things, those on the low end get hit first (e.g. worker bees get the pink slip long before upper management gets their bonus cut), then the mid tier and on up the food chain.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  3. wwdes

    RE: No Name Guy @ 2 – Or you may also assume lower tier has moved to middle tier because of price raise.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  4. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: No Name Guy @ 2 – I don’t know about the low tier, but the low end did drop first. That was due to people believing press reports about the availability of credit. People in the low end believed the press, while people in the middle and upper ends knew they could get credit.

    With the full blown economic crisis hitting about a year later, that ended up working well for those low end buyers.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  5. goblue72

    RE: No Name Guy @ 2 – Except today’s labor report showed solid job growth, and revisions upward to January and February.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  6. Ira Sacharoff

    By No Name Guy @ 2:

    Didn’t the low tier crack first once the bubble burst? Looks that way based on months from peak graph.

    Could it be the harbinger of price trends for the mid and high? We’ll see. I suspect that like so many other things, those on the low end get hit first (e.g. worker bees get the pink slip long before upper management gets their bonus cut), then the mid tier and on up the food chain.

    Not as I remembered it. What I remember it was that the low tier was the last to join the party, that after the middle and high tiers cooled off a bit the low tier was still surging. Maybe when it’s at that point, it’s an indicator that the bubble is going to cool.
    I think last month the low tier was the strongest. This month it’s not. I’m not seeing any patterns.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. wreckingbull

    RE: goblue72 @ 5 – And a labor participation rate of 62.8% – a 35 year low. Pretty sad.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. ARDELL

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 4

    The super jumbo loans went out first. Over a million…in some cases over $800,000. That is loan amount not purchase price. That was the first signal that changes were coming…and fast.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  9. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Ira Sacharoff @ 6 – I realized today that we don’t have to rely on our recollection. If you look at the first graph, it was the low tier which peaked first and headed down.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

Leave a Reply

Do you want a nifty avatar picture next to your name, instead of a photograph of Tim's dog? Just sign up with Gravatar, and make sure to use the same email address in the form below. It's that easy!

Please read the rules before posting a comment.

You have 5 comments remaining on this post.

Archives

Find us on Google+