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Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Leads March Price Increases

Posted on May 28, 2014May 27, 2014 by The Tim

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

  • Low Tier: < $271,660 (down 2.7%)
  • Mid Tier: $271,660 – $435,955
  • Hi Tier: > $435,955 (down 0.8%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through March 2014.

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

Case-Shiller Tiered Index - Seattle

After turning in the weakest performance in February, the low tier shot up to the top in March Between February and March, the low tier increased 2.3%, the middle tier rose 2.1%, and the high tier gained 1.8%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through March 2014.

Case-Shiller HPI - YOY Change in Seattle Tiers

Year-over-year changes slipped further for the middle and high tiers, but increased for the low tier. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of March – Low: +18.1%, Med: +12.7%, Hi: +10.4%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Case-Shiller: Decline from Peak - Seattle Tiers

Current standing is 25.2% off peak for the low tier, 17.3% off peak for the middle tier, and 12.3% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.27.2014)

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Case-Shiller: March Home Price Gains Strong but Slowing
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Case-Shiller Second Derivative Weakness Continues

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