Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

51 responses to “Weekly Open Thread (2014-06-16)”

  1. softwarengineer

    Will Seattle’s Total Labor Market Growth Ever Catch Up With Demand from Job Seekers?

    The IMF says no.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-cuts-u-growth-outlook-135916506.html

    IMO, a $15/hr minimum wage makes it even worse in Seattle.

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  2. pfft

    By softwarengineer @ 1:

    Will Seattle’s Total Labor Market Growth Ever Catch Up With Demand from Job Seekers?

    The IMF says no.

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/imf-cuts-u-growth-outlook-135916506.html

    IMO, a $15/hr minimum wage makes it even worse in Seattle.

    we should give everyone who would get a raise under the new law a PAY CUT. that would stimulate the economy. nothing like less money in the pockets of people to get the economy roaring and businesses hiring.

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  3. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: pfft @ 2 – Pfft discussing economics. The second funniest thing I’ve seen today. This is the funniest.

    http://www.zillow.com/advice-thread/Your-market-price-for-my-mother%27s-condo-in-Burlington-Washington-at-1162-Decatur-is-seriously-flawed/545733/

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  4. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 3:

    RE: pfft @ 2 – Pfft discussing economics. The second funniest thing I’ve seen today. This is the funniest.

    look who is talking. didn’t you say the economy was doing bad because the President said if your bank got bailed out you probably shouldn’t go to vegas? didn’t you say that Obamacare would wreck the healthcare system? you have been proven disastrously wrong. you are 0-2.

    As usual my understanding of economics is soundly based upon evidence that I can cut and paste.

    Why Does the Minimum Wage Have No Discernible Effect on Employment?
    http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/min-wage-2013-02.pdf

    Kary last time you got a raise how many people got fired?

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  5. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 4:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 3:
    RE: pfft @ 2 – Pfft discussing economics. The second funniest thing I’ve seen today. This is the funniest.

    look who is talking. didn’t you say the economy was doing bad because the President said if your bank got bailed out you probably shouldn’t go to vegas? didn’t you say that Obamacare would wreck the healthcare system? you have been proven disastrously wrong. you are 0-2.

    Wow, you don’t understand squat AND you don’t know how to keep score.

    You don’t think that when Obama was critical of people having conventions in Vegas and companies were cancelling conventions that had any impact on employment? Do you think that the companies paid their employees to stand around picking their butts? But hey, go ahead and think unemployment was at acceptable levels back then. You’re the only person in the country who is a big enough Obamabot to think that.

    BTW, not even Obama is that big of an Obamabot. He apologized for the comments I was critical of. So you are literally a group of one on that issue.

    http://www.8newsnow.com/story/11922804/president-obama-apologizes-over-las-vegas-comments

    And on the economy overall, my position was that Obamacare would ruin the economy by EVENTUALLY created even more inflation in the healthcare industry, thus requiring that more and more of the economic output of the economy be spent their. That more insurance wasn’t the answer when too much insurance was already causing problems. But in any case, Obamacare has only been fully implemented now (ignoring Obama’s illegal deferrals) for less than six months, and during the first three months of that period the economy grew at a negative rate. And they’re now predicting double digit rates of increases for health insurance again this year, after the nearly triple digit increases last year. So again, WTF are you talking about? Only if you buy into Democratic politicians’ BS on Obamacare do you think things are going well.

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  6. Blurtman

    03/30/2003, Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense

    “We know where they are [Iraq's weapons of mass destruction]. They’re in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat.”

    http://zfacts.com/iraq-war-quotes

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  7. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 5:

    By pfft @ 4:
    By Kary L. Krismer @ 3:
    RE: pfft @ 2 – Pfft discussing economics. The second funniest thing I’ve seen today. This is the funniest.

    look who is talking. didn’t you say the economy was doing bad because the President said if your bank got bailed out you probably shouldn’t go to vegas? didn’t you say that Obamacare would wreck the healthcare system? you have been proven disastrously wrong. you are 0-2.

    Wow, you don’t understand squat AND you don’t know how to keep score.

    You don’t think that when Obama was critical of people having conventions in Vegas and companies were cancelling conventions that had any impact on employment? Do you think that the companies paid their employees to stand around picking their butts? But hey, go ahead and think unemployment was at acceptable levels back then. You’re the only person in the country who is a big enough Obamabot to think that.

    BTW, not even Obama is that big of an Obamabot. He apologized for the comments I was critical of. So you are literally a group of one on that issue.

    http://www.8newsnow.com/story/11922804/president-obama-apologizes-over-las-vegas-comments

    And on the economy overall, my position was that Obamacare would ruin the economy by EVENTUALLY created even more inflation in the healthcare industry, thus requiring that more and more of the economic output of the economy be spent their. That more insurance wasn’t the answer when too much insurance was already causing problems. But in any case, Obamacare has only been fully implemented now (ignoring Obama’s illegal deferrals) for less than six months, and during the first three months of that period the economy grew at a negative rate. And they’re now predicting double digit rates of increases for health insurance again this year, after the nearly triple digit increases last year. So again, WTF are you talking about? Only if you buy into Democratic politicians’ BS on Obamacare do you think things are going well.

    good god insurance premiums only went up triple digits in your mind. you are in complete denial. you are just wrong about obamacare. just because the economy contracted doesn’t mean it has anything to do with obamacare. the healthcare sector was a positive contributor to GDP. post any evidence from a respectable economist that the economy contracted because of obamacare. it didn’t in Mass when Romneycare was introduced. romneycare somehow hasn’t wrecked the mass economy.

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  8. pfft

    By Blurtman @ 6:

    03/30/2003, Donald Rumsfeld, Secretary of Defense

    “We know where they are [Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction]. They’re in the area around Tikrit and Baghdad and east, west, south and north somewhat.”

    http://zfacts.com/iraq-war-quotes

    lol. truly amateur hour for 8 solid years.

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  9. softwarengineer

    RE: pfft @ 7

    ACA Did One Good Thing IMO

    Its perhaps given the illusion of more competition in the healthcare insurance area, and in my case, my portion of my insurance premiums didn’t go up this year. Is this real or just a reset/mask of the worsenning deductibles, maximum coverages and co-payments?

    That’s the problem, if 99% of your out of pocket healthcare outlays go to the dentist anyway and you aren’t in the hospital hardly at all…..this will be a mystery until the hospital/medication bills are opened from the mail….then that cheap insurance may not seem so cheap anymore.

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  10. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 7:

    good god insurance premiums only went up triple digits in your mind. you are in complete denial. you are just wrong about obamacare. just because the economy contracted doesn’t mean it has anything to do with obamacare. the healthcare sector was a positive contributor to GDP

    By saying “good insurance” you’re proving my point that you’ve completely fallen for the Democratic politician BS. The only significant difference in my coverage now is the lack of a $3,000,000 lifetime cap (or was it $2,000,000). Well that and the higher deductible, which is likely necessary to keep the premium from increasing more than 100%. But hey, higher deductibles for more money is better right? I’m sure the Democrats have some explanation for that.

    And by pointing out that health care contributed as a positive factor to GDP during a quarter whare GDP fell you’re also proving my point about how health care under Obamacare will start taking up more and more of the economic resources of this country.

    So let’s recap this thread.

    You brought up Vegas, a topic Obama himself has appologized about.
    You brought up my predictions on the economy, which although much further out (something you repeatedly fail to understand), there is already some evidence of adverse impact.
    You brought up health care contributing more to GDP, which is exactly what I predicted.
    You brought up “good insurance” which proves the point I made here about you falling for Democratic politician BS.

    You’re really making this far too easy. Try to say something that doesn’t discredit your position. Oh wait, you can’t because the economy still sucks and Obamacare is making it worse.

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  11. Kary L. Krismer

    By softwarengineer @ 9:

    Its perhaps given the illusion of more competition in the healthcare insurance area, and in my case, my portion of my insurance premiums didn’t go up this year. Is this real or just a reset/mask of the worsenning deductibles, maximum coverages and co-payments?

    About half the insurance companies in health care are non-profit (if you ignore the CEO salaries). And the industry was highly regulated by the states. The idea that bringing in more insurance companies would save any significant amount of money was rather naive on the part of the politicians. But hey, Oregon needed something useless to spend $750,000,000 on.

    Most of the difference in price ended up being due to the restrictions they placed on which doctors you could see. Those savings were not all that significant. For example, I couldn’t restrict myself to Group Health doctors and still only pay anything close to what I was paying before.

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  12. Kary L. Krismer

    By softwarengineer @ 9:

    That’s the problem, if 99% of your out of pocket healthcare outlays go to the dentist anyway and you aren’t in the hospital hardly at all…..this will be a mystery until the hospital/medication bills are opened from the mail….then that cheap insurance may not seem so cheap anymore.

    The 99% figure is probably accurate if you’re looking at the number of transactions rather than the total dollar amount.

    As to actual hospital bills, our “crappy” insurance (per the Democrat BS) paid exactly what it was supposed to pay when my wife unexpectedly ended up in the hospital, and we paid not a dollar more than our deductible and maximum out of pocket. Washington state was a “leader” in what insurance had to cover, which was part of the reason why health insurance was so expensive in Washington.

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  13. wreckingbull

    RE: pfft @ 4 – As of two weeks ago, I am an Obamacare customer. So far, what I can tell you is this: it’s pretty much wrecked. I selected the Bronze CHPOW. Which plan did you select that you like so much?

    Your comments lead me to believe that you have heard of Obamacare, but don’t really understand it.

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  14. redmondjp

    RE: wreckingbull @ 13 – My friend, who is an independent contractor whose income varies widely over the course of the year, has told me similar nightmarish tales (which I knew would happen, since I work in gov’t and see the insanity, first-hand, every single day).

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  15. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: wreckingbull @ 13 – pfft’s main if not only factor for consideration is how many people Obamacare covers. It’s not even clear Obamacare will cover that many more people, but because it might he likes Obamacare.

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  16. Blake

    I’ll never understand why Obama – who didn’t really campaign on health care reform – suddenly decided to waste his first year in office on it!? I think his Wall Street advisors pushed him in that direction knowing that Wall Street reform would then take a back seat… and they could get a mandate forcing people to fork out money to the private insurance giants.

    It is one reason I say Obama is not a smart guy because our healthcare system was already a messed up, expensive racket with huge interest groups making billion$ – - incapable of reform (especially given how corrupt Congress is!) But now Obama “OWNS” healthcare… idiot! Americans hate their healthcare system and have for years, but in the future it will now all be Obama’s fault!
    This new report reconfirms what has been true for many years…
    http://io9.com/the-u-s-has-the-most-expensive-least-effective-health-1591403515
    … “Although the US spends more on health care than any other country and has the highest proportion of specialist physicians, survey findings indicate that from the patients’ perspective, and based on outcome indicators, the performance of American health care is severely lacking,” the report’s authors wrote. The US also came in last in the group’s reports from 2010, 2007, 2006, and 2004.”
    … and…
    “It’s important to note that this report was compiled prior to the onset of Obama’s Affordable Care Act.”…

    No matter…. from now on: IT’S ALL OBAMA’S FAULT!
    (…just like Iraq.)

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  17. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blake @ 16 – Obama during at least his first four years demonstrated zero understanding of secondary effects. I think he may have started to catch on. But that’s a problem that will reoccur the next time the United States elects a very inexperienced President.

    One thing that is obvious in the attorney world is there are people out there who can talk a good talk, and sound intelligent, but are really idiots. One attorney I know once described another attorney like that as being like a puppy, because he “made his mess on paper.” (Couldn’t write very well.) I’m afraid that’s what we have in Obama. Someone who sounds good to some people when he talks, but who really isn’t that bright.

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  18. Blurtman

    Obummer says no one escapes killing a representative of the empire. Other Americans, not so much.

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  19. Kary L. Krismer

    Your economy on Obamacare.

    That tint of optimism follows a dismal first quarter in which the economy contracted, forcing officials to reduce their projection for economic growth this year. Officials now see the economy expanding at a 2.2% rate in 2014, substantially slower than a projected growth rate of near 3% offered last March.”

    http://online.wsj.com/articles/fed-ups-projections-for-short-term-interest-rates-1403114981

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  20. softwarengineer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 19

    And They Say the Dismal Q1 GDP Was Actually Overly-Optimistic

    It was actually worse.

    If the Q2 lemming lines up in back of Q1 in the same state….guess what….we’re officially in another recession. Unofficially, IMO, we haven’t pulled out of the 2008 one yet….

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  21. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 10:

    By pfft @ 7:
    good god insurance premiums only went up triple digits in your mind. you are in complete denial. you are just wrong about obamacare. just because the economy contracted doesn’t mean it has anything to do with obamacare. the healthcare sector was a positive contributor to GDP

    You’re really making this far too easy. Try to say something that doesn’t discredit your position. Oh wait, you can’t because the economy still sucks and Obamacare is making it worse.

    prove it.

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  22. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: pfft @ 21 – Apparently you missed my later post on how economic growth forecasts are being drawn back. And you’ve apparently forgotten that GNP shrank last quarter.

    Find another explanation for that besides Obamacare (and besides “our President is incompetent” which is also an acceptable and likely explanation).

    Oh, and I’ll also point out that this later news makes the “weather” excuse even more absurd than it was back when the 1st quarter data was released. LOL, “the weather” is apparently affecting the entire year, and the shopping that didn’t occur because of “the weather” didn’t happen when “the weather” got better.

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  23. Blake

    By pfft @ 21:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 10:
    By pfft @ 7:
    good god insurance premiums only went up triple digits in your mind. you are in complete denial. you are just wrong about obamacare. just because the economy contracted doesn’t mean it has anything to do with obamacare. the healthcare sector was a positive contributor to GDP

    You’re really making this far too easy. Try to say something that doesn’t discredit your position. Oh wait, you can’t because the economy still sucks and Obamacare is making it worse.

    prove it.

    It’ll take some time to crunch the numbers pfft… the program just started and it’s effects (on the economy and the opinion of enrollees) will take a little time to discern. But I offered you a friendly wager a few months back on whether in 2014 or 2016 O’care will be a net plus or net minus for the Dems … who will be running O’care ads – Reps or Dems? Wanna bet? :-)

    That’s a slightly different outcome than the objective effect of the program on the economy and insurance rolls… but time will tell. But it is clearly apparent that the program as implemented (that’s generous!) is a poorly designed, Rube Goldberg contraption… I seriously doubt that even enrollees (the ones most likely to benefit) will like it! And… it is likely to get worse…

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  24. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blake @ 23 – I’m being slightly facetious claiming that the recent data is solely Obamacare, but without a doubt the economy would have been doing much better over the past 3 years if Obamacare had never been passed. Having a lot of uncertainty and disruption in the economy is not a good thing when you want to create jobs.

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  25. Blurtman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 24 – speaking of uncertainty, the odds of the next financial meltdown are greatly increased by no prosecutions and wrist slap settlements.

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  26. Kary L. Krismer

    When attacking the Bill of Rights and purposefully killing American citizens is not enough.

    http://www.sfgate.com/default/article/Betrayal-of-U-S-ruled-out-in-Boston-Marathon-5563044.php

    The Obama administration is beyond disgusting. The attorneys who signed those pleadings and argued that position should be disbarred for being racist.

    I wonder if our resident Obamabot has a problem with this one?

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  27. Kary L. Krismer

    By Blurtman @ 25:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 24 – speaking of uncertainty, the odds of the next financial meltdown are greatly increased by no prosecutions and wrist slap settlements.

    I don’t know about that. People don’t learn, and those who do learn have very short memories. The dot.com bust apparently taught investors nothing, based on the valuations in the tech industry today. The next financial meltdown might be based on that activity rather than anything illegal.

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  28. softwarengineer

    RE: Blurtman @ 25

    Like DHS and Obama Allowing 60,000 Abused Foreign Minors

    To legally illegally cross the southern border….I heard they just let the kids free and homeless too. More minor drug dealers and prostitutes I suppose now…..and our Democrats in charge call it progress on immigration, LOL

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  29. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: softwarengineer @ 28 – As I understand it, that’s largely a result of our war on drugs ruining other countries. And the news this morning is that the war on drugs is making the Taliban rich! Just shocking. /sarc

    Good thing we don’t allow people to purposefully ruin their lives by choosing to use drugs. Instead we ruin entire societies. And that is probably the Republican’s fault more than the Democrat’s fault (although they’re both at fault).

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  30. softwarengineer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 29

    Speaking of the Mexican Drug Cartel Invasion Into America

    There was a good 2013 movie about how the DEA, Medical Marijuana Growers and the Mexican Mafia get all mixed together and one thing’s for certain, its not nice and they team for evil together…British news had pictures of El Paso pasted with Mexican Mafia signs and dummies on hangmen nooses, with spray painted signs, “take the bribe money or die” addressed to American police authorities.

    Legalization of marijuana occurred “just in time” in Wash and Colorado before this “politically incorrect to talk about” immigration crime slime spreads north too. Dare we talk about the truth…LOL

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  31. softwarengineer

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 29

    Green Cards for Political Drug Violence in Other Countries [Political Assylum]

    Is another lame excuse for overpopulation legalization and open borders in America….hades, we’ll have 3 billlion of ‘em invading our country on that brainless lame excuse alone….LOL…besides, if we let ‘em in, they bring their crime with ‘em….

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  32. whatsmyname

    RE: softwarengineer @ 31
    Hey, I know that song. It used to be about the Irish,
    and the Italians,
    and the Jews.

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  33. One Eyed Man

    RE: whatsmyname @ 32

    I’ve heard that song before too. So . . . “What Makes America Great?”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N-4YF7S7rHo

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  34. Blurtman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 26 – Fixed it for you.

    “A federal judge ruled Wednesday that “betrayal of the United States” should not be a factor in considering whether economic collapse suspect Jamie Dimon gets the death penalty if convicted.”

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  35. Blurtman

    RE: One Eyed Man @ 33 – Don’t crush that dwarf.

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  36. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blurtman @ 34 – That’s the only comment here about the Obama Administration arguing it has the power to kill someone because of where they were born and their decision to become a citizen? Apparently everyone is distracted by the press coverage of the “Redskin” story, because that is obviously a more important form of racism than racism involving the government actually trying to kill someone.

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  37. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: whatsmyname @ 32 – John Oliver on Last Week Tonight pointed out the absurdity of the press arguing immigration reform is dead because of how a small number of Republicans voted in a state no where near a border. (The Cantor primary). How did immigration reform become a topic like gun control, where neither side makes any sense?

    And on the topic of not making sense, Oliver claimed there is a study indicating that it is not true that illegal aliens take jobs. Sounds like the study from several years ago which concluded that three strikes does not lower crime. Or one of the many studies that pfft points to. Is there a college somewhere that offers a degree in producing studies which are obviously wrong?

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  38. Kary L. Krismer

    Per this article, Obamacare only increased the number of insured by about 5,000,000 people, and many/most are struggling to pay the premiums.

    http://www.komonews.com/news/health/Poll-Many-still-struggle-to-pay-health-premiums-263865871.html

    I wonder how many more people would have jobs today, and employer provided insurance, if Obamacare had never been passed?

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  39. Blurtman

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 36 – Obama says no one kills an American citizen and gets away with it. Where are you going with this, Kary? Are drones headed to the Big House?

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  40. redmondjp

    RE: Blurtman @ 39 – I guess our president doesn’t keep up with the goings-on in his old neighborhood then . . .

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  41. Blurtman

    RE: redmondjp @ 40 – It’a an algorithm in the NSA Death Program. An analysis is run on the potential target, and a kill or no kill recommendation is issued. Listening to Fox News is a plus if you are liberal to conservative. But a negative if on the far right. A history as a RE agent would be a negative, but not due to a potential for terrorism, but just because.

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  42. pfft

    By wreckingbull @ 13:

    RE: pfft @ 4 – As of two weeks ago, I am an Obamacare customer. So far, what I can tell you is this: it’s pretty much wrecked.

    wrecked? really? what are your metrics?

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  43. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 15:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 13 – pfft’s main if not only factor for consideration is how many people Obamacare covers. It’s not even clear Obamacare will cover that many more people

    yes it’s absolutely clear.

    Survey: 57 percent of Obamacare enrollees were previously uninsured
    http://www.vox.com/2014/6/19/5821662/survey-57-percent-of-obamacare-enrollees-were-previously-uninsured

    that backs up the gallup poll I’ve posted at least twice.

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  44. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 22:

    RE: pfft @ 21 – Apparently you missed my later post on how economic growth forecasts are being drawn back.

    that doesn’t mean anything. it doesn’t mean it was because of obamacare. GDP forecasts are notoriously inaccurrate.

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  45. Blurtman

    Paul Bremer says Iraq was a success until Obama came along.

    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/erin-burnett-grills-paul-bremer-on-iraq-arent-you-the-one-who-got-us-into-this-mess/

    I’ve seen this movie before at corporations where management bands together to repeat a clearly failed strategy rather than the unallowable alternative – to admit gross incompetence and face the consequences. The hallmarks are there – never waiver from the official message, even in the face of incontrovertible evidence of failure. Promotions based upon failing upward. Surreal pomp and circumstance.

    Amazing that W Bush and his crew of morons could have been elected at least once. A sad commentary on the USA.

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  46. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: Blurtman @ 44 – It was screwed up before and after 2008/2009. But what is happening there really does call into question Obama’s Afghanistan policy. Afghanistan is just another example of Obama being on a huge power trip. Nothing he’s doing there is different from what he was critical of in Iraq, except for the fact that he’s calling the shots (pun intended).

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  47. DrRick

    RE: Blurtman @ 44

    Bremer comes across as a pompous ass.

    Fel Temp Reparatio

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  48. Kary L. Krismer

    By Blurtman @ 44:

    Paul Bremer says Iraq was a success until Obama came along.

    Well, that’s a bit of a stretch, but it had been moving in the right direction for a couple of years until Obama. But clearly it’s been a mess for years and years. It’s amazing how many people want to blame one side or another, not being willing to accept that failure was a group effort.

    I even saw one liberal commentator on TV claim it was Bush who wanted to get out of Iraq. A year or two or three they would have been crediting Obama with getting the troops out of Iraq. Bush did set the table for getting out, but it was Obama who failed to negotiate a continuing presence (I’ll agree with McCain on that, although the Iraqi government is so screwed up I’m not sure it would have mattered). And I will blame Bush for the formation of the Iraqi government.

    Bottom line is the middle east hasn’t been this messed up since the 60s, and it’s rapidly getting more and more screwed up.

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  49. Blurtman

    Surreal Mclaughlin Group show today. (More so than usual). The pundits are no longer disguising the reason for meddling in Iraq – we need the freaking oil. Increasing gas prices will blunt the recovery.

    http://www.mclaughlin.com/video.htm?i=1014

    The oil is the property of another country. But we want it so we don’t have to pay more at the pump. And so we will kill people for it.

    What has become of America? What pigs Americans have become! Or always have been?

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  50. softwarengineer

    RE: whatsmyname @ 32

    When Masses Came in Around 1900

    Your reference in time, we needed workers….we don’t need workers now. I know you’ll allege we need cheap slave labor instead? The rest of us can eat cake.

    The Irish, Jews, Italians and Europeans came in legally too, big difference.

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  51. softwarengineer

    RE: whatsmyname @ 32

    Too Bad No Ones’ Humming Any Tune at this Horrifying Youth Neglect Embarrassment By the Open Border Pundits’ and Our News Ignoring American Rule of Law

    Read the blogs and everyone is horrified, not just SWE…..and what’s the historical statue of liberty got to do with today’s brainless anarchy and this tragedy against helpless minors? Nada.

    http://news.yahoo.com/few-immediate-consequences-child-immigrants-140607050.html

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