Posted by: The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

11 responses to “Consumer Confidence Hits 6.5-Year High in June”

  1. Shoeguy

    “The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 85.2, up 4 percent in a month, and at its highest point since January 2008.”

    This comment right there should set off massive economic alarm bells..

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 8

  2. wreckingbull

    RE: Shoeguy @ 1

    – Real estate always goes up.
    – Buy now or be priced out forever.
    – Real estate is a forced automatic savings plan.
    – Buy as much home as you can possibly afford.
    – You deserve it.
    – Offer void where prohibited.
    – May cause bloating and explosive diarrhea.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 12

  3. whatsmyname

    RE: wreckingbull @ 2RE: Shoeguy @ 1

    You guys know that 100 is neutral, (1985), right? So after 5 1/2 years of consistent negative sentiment, a positive movement that still leaves sentiment negative is now irrational exuberance? You should just put the gun in your mouth now.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 6

  4. wreckingbull

    By whatsmyname @ 3:

    You should just put the gun in your mouth now.

    Easy there, big guy.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 4

  5. AeroJD

    Wow, this is reason enough to be cautious about the U.S. economy. When the herd consensus is “all clear”, it’s time to hunker down.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

  6. Marie

    I find this comment offensive. I was trying to click to give it a thumbs down, but it seems to have made me give it a thumbs up!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  7. Erik

    RE: Marie @ 6
    In the future, please indicate which comment you are referring to. Also, push the correct button next time. I don’t see any comment that could offend anyone. I all kinds of ignorant comments on here daily. Nothing offensive though.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  8. boater

    RE: John Dovey @ 5

    It’s not so much saying everything is all clear as much as it’s saying it doesnt suck as bad as last time they were polled but it’s still not good.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  9. Deerhawke

    Let’s do a quick overview of recent statistics. Consumer confidence is well below neutral, but is on the mend. Employment is up in Seattle and especially in anything tech related. Lots of people are relocating here for the strong job market. Mortgage rates have dropped recently and are low by historic standards. Case-Shiller shows Seattle as the second strongest market in its 20-market survey but it shows the rate of increase cooling off.

    Without being panglossian, this might be seen as the best of worlds. We are finally coming out of a long and nasty recession. Maybe the past 2 years in the real estate market have seen a bit of irrational exuberance (especially this spring with multiple all-cash, no conditions offers on prime-neighborhood properties at prices in excess of 2007). But the flattening of the price growth curve could show that we are starting to achieve a more balanced and sustainable market.

    No, this time is not different. No, we have not found a technological fix for the business cycle. No, Seattle is not immune from periodic downturns. But I am guessing we have another couple of years before we need to really worry about the popping of this bubble.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 9

  10. Shoeguy

    RE: Deerhawke @ 9

    We will have a balanced and sustainable market when housing inventory and interest rates are back in line with historic norms, and when the Federal Reserve no longer owns 1.5 trillion dollars of MBS.

    Both interest rates and inventory should be about 75% higher than they are now to be considered historically nominal, and if that were the case today, Seattle prices would be nowhere near what they are right now.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 4

  11. whatsmyname

    By Shoeguy @ 10:

    Both interest rates and inventory should be about 75% higher than they are now to be considered historically nominal, and if that were the case today, Seattle prices would be nowhere near what they are right now.

    Yes, I see the linkage. One thing that would both move the Fed to increase interest rates and move more people to put their houses on the market would be higher prices. We seem to slowly be heading that way.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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