Consumer Confidence Hits 6.5-Year High in June

Consumer Confidence Hits 6.5-Year High in June

Let’s check in on how Consumer Confidence and mortgage interest rates fared during June.

First up, here’s the Consumer Confidence data as of June:

Consumer Confidence

The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 85.2, up 4 percent in a month, and at its highest point since January 2008.

At 85.1, the Present Situation Index increased 6 percent between May and June, and is up 24 percent from a year earlier. The Present Situation Index is currently up 321 percent from its December 2009 low point, and sits at its highest level since April 2008. The Expectations Index rose in June as well, up 2 percent from May.

Here’s your chart of home mortgage 30-year interest rates via the Federal Reserve:

Mortgage Interest Rates

As of this week, the 30-year mortgage rate sits at 4.14 percent, down almost half a point from the recent high of 4.58% set back in August, roughly flat at the same level for the last month or so. Current interest rates are roughly on par with where they were in August 2011 and nearly two and a half points below the 6.41 percent average rate during the height of the housing bubble through 2006.

Click below for the interactive Consumer Confidence chart (only works in Google Chrome).

You can use the sliders under the interactive chart below to zoom in on the data for a specific period.

  

About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

11 comments:

  1. 1
    Shoeguy says:

    “The overall Consumer Confidence Index currently sits at 85.2, up 4 percent in a month, and at its highest point since January 2008.”

    This comment right there should set off massive economic alarm bells..

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 8

  2. 2
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Shoeguy @ 1

    – Real estate always goes up.
    – Buy now or be priced out forever.
    – Real estate is a forced automatic savings plan.
    – Buy as much home as you can possibly afford.
    – You deserve it.
    – Offer void where prohibited.
    – May cause bloating and explosive diarrhea.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 12

  3. 3
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 2RE: Shoeguy @ 1

    You guys know that 100 is neutral, (1985), right? So after 5 1/2 years of consistent negative sentiment, a positive movement that still leaves sentiment negative is now irrational exuberance? You should just put the gun in your mouth now.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 6

  4. 4
    wreckingbull says:

    By whatsmyname @ 3:

    You should just put the gun in your mouth now.

    Easy there, big guy.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 4

  5. 5
    AeroJD says:

    Wow, this is reason enough to be cautious about the U.S. economy. When the herd consensus is “all clear”, it’s time to hunker down.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 3

  6. 6
    Marie says:

    I find this comment offensive. I was trying to click to give it a thumbs down, but it seems to have made me give it a thumbs up!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  7. 7
    Erik says:

    RE: Marie @ 6
    In the future, please indicate which comment you are referring to. Also, push the correct button next time. I don’t see any comment that could offend anyone. I all kinds of ignorant comments on here daily. Nothing offensive though.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  8. 8
    boater says:

    RE: John Dovey @ 5

    It’s not so much saying everything is all clear as much as it’s saying it doesnt suck as bad as last time they were polled but it’s still not good.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  9. 9
    Deerhawke says:

    Let’s do a quick overview of recent statistics. Consumer confidence is well below neutral, but is on the mend. Employment is up in Seattle and especially in anything tech related. Lots of people are relocating here for the strong job market. Mortgage rates have dropped recently and are low by historic standards. Case-Shiller shows Seattle as the second strongest market in its 20-market survey but it shows the rate of increase cooling off.

    Without being panglossian, this might be seen as the best of worlds. We are finally coming out of a long and nasty recession. Maybe the past 2 years in the real estate market have seen a bit of irrational exuberance (especially this spring with multiple all-cash, no conditions offers on prime-neighborhood properties at prices in excess of 2007). But the flattening of the price growth curve could show that we are starting to achieve a more balanced and sustainable market.

    No, this time is not different. No, we have not found a technological fix for the business cycle. No, Seattle is not immune from periodic downturns. But I am guessing we have another couple of years before we need to really worry about the popping of this bubble.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 9

  10. 10
    Shoeguy says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 9

    We will have a balanced and sustainable market when housing inventory and interest rates are back in line with historic norms, and when the Federal Reserve no longer owns 1.5 trillion dollars of MBS.

    Both interest rates and inventory should be about 75% higher than they are now to be considered historically nominal, and if that were the case today, Seattle prices would be nowhere near what they are right now.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 4

  11. 11
    whatsmyname says:

    By Shoeguy @ 10:

    Both interest rates and inventory should be about 75% higher than they are now to be considered historically nominal, and if that were the case today, Seattle prices would be nowhere near what they are right now.

    Yes, I see the linkage. One thing that would both move the Fed to increase interest rates and move more people to put their houses on the market would be higher prices. We seem to slowly be heading that way.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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