June Stats Preview: Sales Bump Edition

Now that June is over, let’s have a look at our monthly stats preview. Most of the charts below are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

First up, here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snhomish County Stats Preview

Listings are up 7 percent from a year ago in King County and over 32 percent in Snohomish. Sales flipped from year-over-year drops in King and Snohomish last year in May to a 7 percent increase in King and flat in Snohomish in June. Foreclosure starts and completions both continued to drop from last year’s levels.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County rose 7 percent between May an June (in 2013 they fell 5 percent over the same period), and were up 7 percent year-over-year, a flip from the previous seven months, when sales were falling from year-earlier levels.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish were up 15 percent month-over-month and were down 1 percent from June 2013.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosures in both counties were once again down considerably from a year ago. Month-over-month foreclosures fell in both counties. King was down 31 percent from last year, and Snohomish fell 58 percent.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were down 32 percent from a year ago, but rose slightly month-over-month.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

After double digit inventory gains in both counties between April and May, May to June saw smaller gains. King is currently up 7 percent from last year, while Snohomish is up 32 percent.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

6 comments:

  1. 1

    When I read the headline I thought you were being overly optimistic on the volume issue. Less than 24 hours ago I checked the data and it wasn’t clear the volume would exceed last month’s volume, and doubtful it would exceed last year. Currently the volume does exceed last month–lots of sales reported in less than 24 hours.

    References to data from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  2. 2

    The count just exceeded last June–seemingly lots of end of month sales.

    “Count” refers to data from NWMLS but not data compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  3. 3

    I’m showing YOY sales about the same for King County June, but some significant changes worth noting:

    16% less sold 6/14 than 6/13 in the $300k or less category
    2% more sold 6/14 than 6/13 in the $300k to $600k category
    16% more sold 6/14 than 6/13 in the $600k to 900k category
    33% more sold 6/14 than 6/13 in the $900k to $1.2M category
    34% more sold 6/14 than 6/13 for over $1.2M

    Median sf not much different at 1,891 vs 1,900
    Median price up 11%

    This not differentiating between condo and single family and the mix did not change much at 584 condos this year vs 598 condos last year in the totals.

    43% to 44%% of the market paid $300k to $600k with only about 1% change YOY

    Under $300k dropped from 35% of the market to 30% of the market.

    Over $600k increased from 22% of the market to 26% of the market.

    Now checking stats for 1st Half YOY and 2nd Quarter YOY to see if the numbers follow suit at least for 2nd Quarter, if not for the full 1st Half.

    Required Disclosure: Data not compiled, verified or posted by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

  4. 4
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 3
    What I am taking from this is the more expensive homes are more in demand right now. If the homes under 300k are not increasing in demand as much as the more expensive homes, I would expect the prices of those homes under 300k to not increase as rapidly as the more expensive homes.

    Why do you think the more expensive homes are rapidly increasing in demand?

  5. 5
    Erik says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 3
    And have a happy 4th of July Ardell. If you ever need any help moving stuff around, feel free to get a hold of me since I do have a pickup. You have helped me a lot and I would like to give back.

  6. 6

    RE: Erik @ 4

    Usually the reduction of homes sold under $300,000 is more about the homes selling under $300,000 last year cost more than $300,000 this year. Same homes are now over that $300,000 benchmark. Still checking. I like to give at least 10 days after June 30 for late posting stats given some people go away this week for the 4th. By July 10th or 11th most June 30 postings should be fairly complete.

    Thanks for the good wishes for the 4th and also the offer to help with lugging stuff around. :) Right now I’m working on a couple of tear down pocket listings…so no staging needed at the moment. But I’ll call on you if and when in case you are bored. :)

Leave a Reply

Use your email address to sign up with Gravatar for a custom avatar.
Your email address will not be published.

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <s> <strike> <strong>

Please read the rules before posting a comment.