Posted by: Timothy Ellis (The Tim)

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

26 responses to “Weekly Open Thread (2014-08-18)”

  1. softwarengineer

    To Taper or Not to Taper Incentives for Lower Interest Rates in Housing?

    Yellen speaks out of both sides of her mouth on this one:

    “…While they haven’t changed that phrase, Fed officials have made some subtle shifts. Ms. Yellen in July testimony to Congress said that if the economy continues to improve more quickly than expected, the central bank will raise rates sooner than expected. That means earlier than mid-2015 is possible.

    Still, she and other top Fed officials believe they have been served well keeping the money spigots open in an economy that keeps disappointing. They will need some more proof before they heed the warnings of those who say they’re falling behind the curve….”

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/outlook-federal-bets-rate-rise-002100925.html

    Using today’s gloomy/cheerful at the same time news to project where housing interest rates will go soon is like driving in a deep fog….

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  2. ChrisM

    Amazingly, searching Google for “title insurance payback lawsuit” returns a whole bunch of results (who would have guessed given that Obama controls the Justice Department)….

    But, I’m primarily interested in: http://www.latimes.com/business/realestate/la-fi-harney-20140817-story.html

    “The suit, which was filed in U.S. District Court in Baltimore this month, alleges that Creig Northrop Team P.C. — a real estate group ranked among the highest-grossing nationwide in recent years — received payments totaling $1.3 million from 2001 to 2014 from a title insurance company, which the complaint characterizes as illegal “kickbacks” that were never disclosed to buyers. The plaintiffs also allege that the defendants used “sham” employment and marketing agreements to disguise the true nature of the payments.”

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  3. softwarengineer

    RE: ChrisM @ 2

    Couldn’t Open That LA Times Story With IE8

    Time to swtitch to Mozilla Firefox…..LOL….I hear the IE browser is a complete security joke anyway…

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  4. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: ChrisM @ 2 – It’s an affiliated business issue. Disclosures are required when you refer clients to businesses that your brokerage has an ownership (or other) interest in. The real disclosure in most instances should be: “The company I am referring you to is crap, and I am only doing it because of having a relationship with that company.”

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  5. pfft

    Looks like the vultures are going to get f’d!

    The Judge In The Argentina Vs. Hedge Funds Case Just Exposed A Big Weakness

    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/griesa-does-not-rule-argentina-in-contempt-2014-8#ixzz3B4TZ2bpQ

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  6. pfft

    There is a 55% probability that Democrats hold the Senate.

    http://election.princeton.edu/

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  7. pfft

    Obamacare now covers between 23-28 million people.

    http://acasignups.net/graph

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

  8. softwarengineer

    RE: pfft @ 6

    Your Polling Data Appears Too Old, Its June 2014

    It also doesn’t show a 55% clear lead, check the past month of June 2014 using a ruler on statistical polling trending, it’s flat [check out the graph on your Democratic Princeton College website]….polling population? Doesn’t document IMO.

    Are their more recent [and more neutral], dependable polls on that topic recently? I come up nada Pfft. Try Googling it.

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  9. softwarengineer

    RE: pfft @ 7
    The Big Problem With Your Democrat Data Pfft

    It shows signups [even adds in poor insurance, that's a joke], but doesn’t show cancellations for a mirade of reasons, like not paying your premiums. It needs to show both, or its a joke IMO.

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  10. pfft

    By softwarengineer @ 8:

    RE: pfft @ 6

    Your Polling Data Appears Too Old, Its June 2014

    It also doesn’t show a 55% clear lead, check the past month of June 2014 using a ruler on statistical polling trending, it’s flat [check out the graph on your Democratic Princeton College website]….polling population? Doesn’t document IMO.

    Are their more recent [and more neutral], dependable polls on that topic recently? I come up nada Pfft. Try Googling it.

    I only posted what is at the top of the page.

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  11. pfft

    By softwarengineer @ 9:

    RE: pfft @ 7
    The Big Problem With Your Democrat Data Pfft

    It shows signups [even adds in poor insurance, that’s a joke], but doesn’t show cancellations for a mirade of reasons, like not paying your premiums. It needs to show both, or its a joke IMO.

    democrat data? laughable.

    if you scroll down it does estimate some of the issues you raise for a good chunk of people newly covered. they can probably be reasonably estimated with past data anyway. you probably don’t really want that done though.

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  12. pfft

    Some people suggested we not count the expansion of medicaid because those people were eligible anyway. however we find that states that expanded medicaid saw their uninsured rates drop sharply while those that didn’t expand medcaid didn’t see the same. so we know that Obamacare is helping with medicaid.

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  13. Kary L. Krismer

    By pfft @ 12:

    Some people suggested we not count the expansion of medicaid because those people were eligible anyway. however we find that states that expanded medicaid saw their uninsured rates drop sharply while those that didn’t expand medcaid didn’t see the same. so we know that Obamacare is helping with medicaid.

    And we also know that they could have done more if they had just done the same thing as part of a separate bill expanding Medicaid that didn’t violate the 10th Amendment. But hey, whatever.

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  14. Blurtman

    Just in case there were any doubts about the USA being a banana republic, here is another reminder of who runs the country. BTW, Hank Paulsom was CEO of Goldman Sachs, leaving in June 2006 to become US Treasury Secretary. This particular bit of fraud occurred from 2005-2007, clearly on Hank’s watch. What a joke the USA has become!

    *********

    Goldman Sachs, U.S. agency in mortgage settlement worth $1.2 billion

    The FHFA’s primary case against Goldman Sachs accused the bank of misleading the two mortgage finance giants in the sale of over $11.1 billion in mortgage-backed securities sold to Fannie and Freddie from 2005 to 2007.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/08/22/us-goldman-fhfa-idUSKBN0GM1VN20140822

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  15. wreckingbull

    Wow, pfft is really stinking it up in here this week. Sort of keeps the intersting discussion away. Maybe next week will be better.

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 2

  16. Kary L. Krismer

    One bad effect of our improving market is some of the bad agents who gave up are starting to come back.

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  17. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 13:

    By pfft @ 12:
    Some people suggested we not count the expansion of medicaid because those people were eligible anyway. however we find that states that expanded medicaid saw their uninsured rates drop sharply while those that didn’t expand medcaid didn’t see the same. so we know that Obamacare is helping with medicaid.

    And we also know that they could have done more if they had just done the same thing as part of a separate bill expanding Medicaid that didn’t violate the 10th Amendment. But hey, whatever.

    oh we have a tenther! The tenth amendment was never intended to be implemented as you say and has never been ruled that way. literally everything would possibly be unconstitutional potentially which is not what the founders wanted.

    Also this:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taxing_and_Spending_Clause#Constitutional_text

    you still are obsessed with Obamacare being one bill aren’t you? Isn’t Newhart on?

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  18. pfft

    By wreckingbull @ 15:

    Wow, pfft is really stinking it up in here this week. Sort of keeps the intersting discussion away. Maybe next week will be better.

    nobody was posting anything so I gave myself free reign.

    who else is giving better Senate updates of telling you how bad the vultures are doing?

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  19. Kary L. Krismer

    RE: pfft @ 17 – WTF are you talking about? Don’t you know that Obamacare was ruled to have violated the 10th Amendment? Your memory really sucks.

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  20. pfft

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 19:

    RE: pfft @ 17 – WTF are you talking about? Don’t you know that Obamacare was ruled to have violated the 10th Amendment? Your memory really sucks.

    no it hasn’t. maybe you are talking about the states having to expand medicaid part. A ruling like that has never happened before and keep it mind it’s the very pro-business Roberts court which said racism is over…

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  21. Blurtman

    Cornel West: “He posed as a progressive and turned out to be counterfeit. We ended up with a Wall Street presidency, a drone presidency”

    No, the thing is he posed as a progressive and turned out to be counterfeit. We ended up with a Wall Street presidency, a drone presidency, a national security presidency. The torturers go free. The Wall Street executives go free. The war crimes in the Middle East, especially now in Gaza, the war criminals go free. And yet, you know, he acted as if he was both a progressive and as if he was concerned about the issues of serious injustice and inequality and it turned out that he’s just another neoliberal centrist with a smile and with a nice rhetorical flair. And that’s a very sad moment in the history of the nation because we are—we’re an empire in decline. Our culture is in increasing decay. Our school systems are in deep trouble. Our political system is dysfunctional. Our leaders are more and more bought off with legalized bribery and normalized corruption in Congress and too much of our civil life. You would think that we needed somebody—a Lincoln-like figure who could revive some democratic spirit and democratic possibility.

    http://www.salon.com/2014/08/24/cornel_west_he_posed_as_a_progressive_and_turned_out_to_be_counterfeit_we_ended_up_with_a_wall_street_presidency_a_drone_presidency/

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 1

  22. DrRick

    By pfft @ 6:

    There is a 55% probability that Democrats hold the Senate.

    http://election.princeton.edu/

    That makes me feel better.

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  23. DrRick

    By pfft @ 7:

    Obamacare now covers between 23-28 million people.

    http://acasignups.net/graph

    An now I feel even more better.

    Felt Temp Reparatio

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  24. DrRick

    By pfft @ 7:

    Obamacare now covers between 23-28 million people.

    http://acasignups.net/graph

    An now I feel even more better.

    Fel Temp Reparatio

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  25. DrRick

    RE: Blurtman @ 21
    Great link!! Blurty, you win something. Not sure what but definitely something. Cornel West is a canary in a coal mine for me, kinda like Noam Chomsky, only not quite. But still a canary.
    Thanks for posting.

    Pfft, my man, you should check out the link.

    Fel Temp Reparatio

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  26. Blurtman

    RE: DrRick @ 25 – Noam Chomsky rules!

    Rate this comment: Thumb up 0

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