Sales Mix Shifted Into Expensive Eastside Homes in June

With the big increase in the county-wide median price between May and June, let’s take an updated look at how King County’s sales are shifting between the different regions around the county. This data is interesting to keep tabs on since geographic shifts can and do affect the median price.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

  • low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
  • mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
  • high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of May data:

  • low end: $290,500-$409,200
  • mid range: $415,000-$850,000
  • high end: $528,444-$1,811,250

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

Median Price of Single Family Homes Sold

All three tiers saw month-over-month gains in their respective median-median price, but none are quite at record levels. The middle tier hit an all-time high in April, and the high tier hit its all-time high in December. The low tier still hasn’t beat its 2007 high. Month-over-month, the median price in the low tier rose 6.8 percent, the middle tier increased 5.2 percent, and the high tier gained 0.8 percent.

Twenty-eight of the twenty-nine NWMLS regions in King County with single-family home sales in June had a higher median price than a year ago, while sixteen had a month-over-month increase in the median price.

Here’s how the median prices changed year-over-year. Low tier: up 10.5 percent, middle tier: up 12.0 percent, high tier: up 5.4 percent.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions.

% of Total King Co. SFH Sales by NWMLS Area

Sales in all three regions rose again between May and June, while month-to-month the mix shifted slightly away from the South King low tier and into the Eastside high tier region. Month-over-month sales were up 2.1 percent in the low tier, up 3.8 percent in the middle tier, and up 20.2 percent in the high tier.

Year-over-year sales increased in all three tiers as well. Compared to a year ago, sales increased 17.3 percent in the low tier, rose 11.8 percent in the middle tier, and increased 23.4 percent in the high tier.

As of June 2015, 32.2 percent of sales were in the low end regions (flat from 32.2 percent a year ago), 34.0 percent in the mid range (up just slightly from 35.7 percent a year ago), and 33.8 percent in the high end (up from 32.1 percent a year ago).

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Bank-Owned: Share of Total Sales - King County Single-Family

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

% of Total King Co. SFH Sales by NWMLS Area since 2000

Prices are rising in most parts of the Seattle area, but the sales mix shifted pretty strongly toward the more expensive parts of the county in June. This shift is likely a big part of why the county-wide median price shot up from $480,000 in May to $500,000 in June.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

36 comments:

  1. 1
    sleepless says:

    Expensive housing is good, isn’t it, it keeps the filth out. I think, we should stop issuing building permits altogether and let the people move to the woods and deserts. I think, the grubbement should do something about home prices not rising fast enouf. That will benefit the few “elites” to preserve their crap shacks values.

  2. 2
    sleepless says:

    Housing market recovery means falling, not rising, housing prices to more affordable levels….

  3. 3
    Blurtman says:

    They are developing like mad in the hamlet of Sammamish. Trees and undeveloped land are public enemy number 1 in the drive to destroy the attractive qualities of the Microsoft bedroom community.

    Here is but on example that is quite typical of the frenzy:

    http://www.murrayfranklyn.com/homes/sammamish/reesesrun/
    http://www.zillow.com/homes/21750-SE-3rd-Pl,-Sammamish,-WA-98074-_rb/

    For those who may have had GI problems after consuming too many Reese’s Pieces and rum, an unfortunate name, to be sure.

  4. 4
    David B. says:

    RE: sleepless @ 1 – A valiant effort, but still not up to Erik’s standards. But keep trying, maybe you’ll get there.

  5. 5
    sleepless says:

    Want a waterfront home? You might actually be able to get one, probably even for free…
    http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/07/15/massive-mega-earthquake-will-destroy-pacific-northwest-scientists-predict

  6. 6
    sleepless says:

    By David B. @ 4:

    RE: sleepless @ 1 – A valiant effort, but still not up to Erik’s standards. But keep trying, maybe you’ll get there.

    Not even trying, Erik is a troll, I am the real stuff!!!

  7. 7
    scaredy cat says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 3
    They are developing like mad in the hamlet of Sammamish

    Yeah, well a median HH income north of 140k will do that …..

  8. 8

    By Blurtman @ 3:

    They are developing like mad in the hamlet of Sammamish. Trees and undeveloped land are public enemy number 1 in the drive to destroy the attractive qualities of the Microsoft bedroom community.

    That war was lost a long time ago. I remember maybe 20-25 years ago or so, driving up to Pine Lake. In less than a year an entire forest was totally wiped out. Not sure how many acres, but it was a lot of land. I’ve been though there again (obviously) but don’t know exactly what is sitting there instead, but it’s undoubtedly housing.

  9. 9
    Jonness says:

    By sleepless @ 5:

    Want a waterfront home? You might actually be able to get one, probably even for free…
    http://insider.foxnews.com/2015/07/15/massive-mega-earthquake-will-destroy-pacific-northwest-scientists-predict

    I bought a waterfront home not long after watching the Japanese fiasco. I was going to purchase low-bank due to the outrageous lifestyle it supports, but I decided instead to buy medium bank for a margin of safety. Judging from the video, maybe I should have went with high-bank. :)

    That said, the sunset tonight was absolutely spectacular. If I’m going to eventually drown, at least I’ll live a good piece of life in between now and then.

    Thanks for posting the video. I found it really interesting!

  10. 10
    Erik says:

    RE: sleepless @ 6
    I’m a troll that went from living in the hood in north Everett unable to make my payments to living on the water in Seattle and having no problem making payments. They key was reading Tim’s data and making good decisions. I may be a troll, but atleast I’m not a broke troll anymore.

  11. 11

    RE: Jonness @ 9 – The Fox News coverage of that story (not necessarily that particular video) has been panned by earthquake experts. There was a portion of the original article that was a bit over the top–talking about everything west of I-5 being “toast” but the Fox coverage apparently took that and ran with it.

  12. 12
    Blurtman says:

    The Bertha Highway 99 tunnel fiasco

    Tunnel-boring machine Bertha, whose front end remains in pieces along the downtown waterfront, is to resume digging Nov. 23, according to a new timetable from the construction team.

    The extra time points to a March 2018 grand opening for traffic to enter the four-lane, tolled Highway 99 tunnel from Sodo to South Lake Union

    Before tunnel boring started July 30, 2013, state officials said the tunnel would open by the end of 2015.

    “There were over 1,000 changes from the previous schedule,” said Todd Trepanier, Highway 99 administrator for WSDOT. Trepanier said the technical plan looks logical, but it’s too early for him to say with confidence whether Bertha will really burrow forward by Nov. 23.

    To date, WSDOT says contractors haven’t requested additional state money for this summer’s work. An expert-review panel this spring said Seattle Tunnel Partner’s (STP’s) total requests for change orders would likely top $300 million, including a placeholder $125 million STP reported last year, based mostly on project delays.

    The contract with STP is for $1.35 billion. Disputes about overruns could take years to resolve.

    It is unclear whether STP might try to pass on the additional costs to the state.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/transportation/new-bertha-start-date-nov-23/

    Bravo governors Gregoire and Inslee.

    Bravo mayor Murray.

    How about firing some folks?

    No, let’s just raise taxes and spin, baby, spin.

  13. 13
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 12
    This is frustrating watching these fat hogs waste our tax dollars.

  14. 14
    Jonness says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 11:

    RE: Jonness @ 9 – The Fox News coverage of that story (not necessarily that particular video) has been panned by earthquake experts. There was a portion of the original article that was a bit over the top–talking about everything west of I-5 being “toast” but the Fox coverage apparently took that and ran with it.

    That part didn’t make sense to me. If everything west of I-5 is toast, the body count would be way above 15k. But the take-away seems to be Seattle’s fault zone is much more powerful than California’s.

  15. 15
    boater says:

    RE: Erik @ 13
    It’s frustrating that this was all obvious before the project was approved but delusional wishful thinking convinced enough people to go along with it.

  16. 16

    By Jonness @ 14:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 11:

    RE: Jonness @ 9 – The Fox News coverage of that story (not necessarily that particular video) has been panned by earthquake experts. There was a portion of the original article that was a bit over the top–talking about everything west of I-5 being “toast” but the Fox coverage apparently took that and ran with it.

    That part didn’t make sense to me. If everything west of I-5 is toast, the body count would be way above 15k. But the take-away seems to be Seattle’s fault zone is much more powerful than California’s.

    The San Andreas fault won’t (can’t?) produce that powerful of a quake compared to the one off the coast, but I’m not sure how far down into California that latter fault goes. Like us, they have a number of different faults. Also, San Andreas is a slip/slide, while the one off the coast is a subduction, which can build up a lot more force before releasing.

    But power is also affected by proximity. I read recently that a subduction quake off of Oregon would feel in Seattle about like the Nisqually quake did. So a more local quake of less power could do a lot more damage in Seattle.

  17. 17

    RE: Blurtman @ 3

    Yes Blurtman

    I saw the $1.1M 4.5 bdrm [whatever that means] was still available….throw your bag of cash away and grab it up, its a good investment and should sky rocket in price. The property tax is only about $1200/mo and add in its approximate $300/mo insurance, estimated $1000/mo HOA fees…ohhhh, $600/mo utilities in winter and $500/mo central air….you get the gist.

  18. 18

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 8

    The 2500 acres of Standard Oil woods with bears and coyotes, next to Paine Field in Alderwood Manor is where I rode dirt bikes as a kid. Its been clear cut and gone, replaced with 1000s of over-sized homes on small lots. I don’t even visit my dad’s old home, its still there, but the neighborhood’s destroyed.

  19. 19

    RE: Erik @ 10
    The Mix on Engineering Pay

    Means the NWO wage degradation can put a Masters Mechanical Engineer in $16.50/hr wages. Some are still making like $50-70/hr…..for now. Its not gonna last long with the feds threatening to pull the debt plug. I see retirements plunging too.

    I imagine as the jobs become portable, engineers too, look to more simple minded engineering careers applied with puny pay….especially just building hand electronics assembled in foreign countries. Kiss aerospace good bye too…OKC is getting a lot of the defense work.

  20. 20

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11
    Tornados in Kansas City?

    The few that hit residential areas destroy maybe a mere block or two. A major earthquake in Seattle would flatten the whole section of the state….we’re in far more risk.

  21. 21

    RE: Blurtman @ 12

    We Must Build a Tunnel for Whatever Cost

    To make the waterfront land available for the rich elite.

  22. 22

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16RE: Jonness @ 14

    Actually the Waves of a Richtor 8 are Huge

    Richtor 7 after shocks have small waves and do much more killing and destructions than the 8.

    The San Andreas fault could send half of California underwater into the ocean….the Olympic mountains shield Seattle from that possibility.

  23. 23

    By softwarengineer @ 20:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 11
    Tornados in Kansas City?

    The few that hit residential areas destroy maybe a mere block or two. A major earthquake in Seattle would flatten the whole section of the state….we’re in far more risk.

    Actually, after the big earthquake that hit down in CA during a World Series game, parts of Santa Cruz looked as if a tornado had gone through, or maybe a bulldozer. The severe damage was very localized, and ran in a meandering route, like a tornado would.

    The only thing that would flatten a whole section of land would be a Tsunami.

  24. 24
    Jonness says:

    By softwarengineer @ 22:

    The San Andreas fault could send half of California underwater into the ocean….the Olympic mountains shield Seattle from that possibility.

    I’m not afraid of earthquakes. But a 600 mile long 100 foot high wall of water headed for the CA, OR, WA and Canadian coastline seems a little scary to me. Keep in mind, this will not appear to be a 100′ high wave. It will appear as if the entire ocean has lifted up 100′ into the air and is speeding right at you.

  25. 25
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 21 – The waterfront area in Boston where they knocked down their freeway is quite nice, experienced as a tourist or business traveler. But condos there are quite pricey as is a lot of Boston/Cambridge.

  26. 26
    Jonness says:

    By softwarengineer @ 21:

    RE: Blurtman @ 12

    We Must Build a Tunnel for Whatever Cost

    To make the waterfront land available for the rich elite.

    I agree! And then build another one from Fauntleroy to Southworth while we’re at it. :)

  27. 27
    Mike says:

    By sleepless @ 2:

    Housing market recovery means falling, not rising, housing prices to more affordable levels….

    Did you miss that?

  28. 28

    By Jonness @ 24:

    By softwarengineer @ 22:

    The San Andreas fault could send half of California underwater into the ocean….the Olympic mountains shield Seattle from that possibility.

    I’m not afraid of earthquakes. But a 600 mile long 100 foot high wall of water headed for the CA, OR, WA and Canadian coastline seems a little scary to me. Keep in mind, this will not appear to be a 100′ high wave. It will appear as if the entire ocean has lifted up 100′ into the air and is speeding right at you.

    I don’t think that’s an accurate description of the likely waves either, but I’m not as familiar with the specifics of Tsunamis.

  29. 29

    Did We Forget the Reason for Our Earthquakes?

    Active Volcanos, like St Helens and Rainer. Now its ash, killing heat waves and mudslides flattening a portion of the state. The Auburn Valley would fill with mud. I’d take tornados any day.

  30. 30

    RE: softwarengineer @ 29 – The volcanoes are more a symptom of what’s going on underneath the surface, not the explanation for other events. But yes a Lahar from an eruption is yet another risk we face.

  31. 31

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 30

    Montana has the super volcano, Yellowstone…so its not all coastal areas. The array of volcanos in the world is related to seismic trending like fault lines off the Olympic Peninsula threatening us. They are tied together.

  32. 32
    Michael Snyder says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 22

    This post is so full of fail Im not sure where to start.

    The San Andreas fault over time (millions of years) will eventually and slowly move a portion of California into the Pacific, creating some new waterfront.
    One event no matter the size would NOT accomplish this feat itself.

    As for your uninformed Tsunami predictions, its not the magnitude as much as the land displaced, or area of fault rupture that makes the wave. A shallow 6.9 on the Seattle Fault could spawn deadly waves in the sound, yet some large 8.0+ quakes on certain faults do not create Tsunamis.

    And 7.0 aftershocks are far weaker than an 8.0 initial quake, and FAR less likely to be damaging as the 8.0 initial quake. Sure, an aftershock might take down a damaged building or two, but this is a far cry from the devestation of the initial quake.

    Like Ive said before, have you ever said anything factual on this website?

  33. 33

    RE: Michael Snyder @ 32 – I believe a Tsunami is even possible in Lake Washington. There is that submerged forest in the lake, and it’s a pretty good guess that when that even occurred there was significant wave action.

    This is interesting though. It indicates that boats were damaged in Lake Union from the Alaska earthquake back in the sixties, and that “seiches” (large vertical waves) in Lake Washington are a risk to both bridges and people standing on shore. No mention of the houses.

    http://www.seattle.gov/Documents/Departments/Emergency/PlansOEM/SHIVA/2014-04-23_TsunamiandSeiches.pdf

    Note though that it is suspect both because it’s created by the City of Seattle and it references waves from Elliot Bay destroying buildings weakened by an earthquake which occurred in 900 A.D. ;-)

  34. 34
    boater says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 33
    Thanks Kary. I read the article and its not a tsunami but something akin to the waves made when yoy slosh back and forth in the tub. It requires resonance which means the earthquake frequency have to match up with the geography of the lakes. But the height was i believe 8 feet on the upper end.

    I’m glad i have high bank waterfront. Unless the waves are higher than 30ft all I lose is a ski boat, lift, dock and a shed. The dock i think would take it though so all relatively cheap stuff to replace.

  35. 35
    David says:

    I live near pine lake, the only thing keeping more development from happening is lack of sewer capacity.

  36. 36

    Maybe the Tsunami risk in Washington is worse than I thought. I just saw a Tsunami Evacuation Route in Renton on 104th about 4 blocks south of Carr/Petrovitsky. That has to be at least 300′ above sea level!

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