“You hope beyond hope that you get this house…”

Last week the Seattle Times ran an editorial from a frustrated would-be home buyer currently in the trenches:

As I write this, I’m waiting to hear from my realtor on whether or not I just bought a house. It’s my sixth attempt at purchasing a home in Seattle this year, and you know what they say: The sixth time is the charm! Or maybe it’s the 16th?

There’s nothing quite like waiting for the call from your Realtor to find out whether you just spent your entire savings and then some on a house that may or may not survive even a minor earthquake. (You won’t know until said earthquake hits because you had to waive the once-standard opportunity to have the house properly inspected because inspection contingencies are so 2015.)

Nevertheless, you hope beyond hope that you get this house, despite the fact that the foundational supports are shimmed up with a log, a brick, a wedge of plywood — and is that a stack of plates? And if you have to write one more sickeningly earnest letter about why you’re the best buyer for this home, you might have to call it quits and move back to Iowa, where hundreds of thousands of dollars buys you an entire operational farm.

The whole piece has an eerily familiar ring to it… Here’s an excerpt from a piece that ran nearly 10 years ago in the Seattle P-I, the famous “last spaceship flight” piece:

But with friends who have not yet “squeezed in” to the housing market, I am reminded of how I felt when I got accepted by my first choice for college and my best friend got nothing but rejections. What do you say to each other? I try to offer soothing assurances: “I hear there are still some great deals up north.” “600 square feet is plenty of room!”

But no matter what I say, I know we all feel like they have probably missed their chance, like they didn’t buy their ticket on the last spaceship flight off a planet that’s about to explode. I fear they’re doomed to move back to Missouri in order to afford more than a studio condo on the fringes of the city.

Fortunately, none of my friends have left town — yet. And even if they don’t, even if they all hit the jackpot and land their cramped little dream homes, I guess I’ll never know who else may have left.

The author of the 2016 piece has apparently been getting lots of advice from her friends:

Well-meaning people keep offering unsolicited advice.

I wish people would stop telling me I need to keep the faith because my perfect house is right around the corner. I need them to stop suggesting I look for houses in neighborhoods they would never set foot in, let alone purchase property in. I would appreciate it if people stopped recommending fixer-uppers and tear-down-ers. And if one more person suggests that I include a heartfelt letter and photo of my adorable children in my offer packet, I will lose my mind.

The one piece of advice it seems nobody is giving her: Maybe you should just hold off and don’t buy a home in a ridiculously frenzied market. Just a thought.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

340 comments:

  1. 251
    David B. says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 249 – “It Worked for Me”

    Years (decades, likely) ago and in a totally different market situation.

    In a market (such as the current one) where multiple offers are common, as Kary recently pointed out a seller’s agent could probably be investigated for professional misconduct if s/he failed to inform the buyer that it might be a good idea to wait for another offer or two to come in (which it probably will, within the next day or two).

  2. 252
    David B. says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 244 – I’d be interested to know some examples of Tim’s posts which you consider to have “bordered on racist, and probably crossed that border a few times”.

  3. 253
  4. 254

    RE: David B. @ 251 – Not Tim’s, but those commenting here. I was thinking of the original post (235 Warren Hutch) which started this sub-thread when I wrote that, not the post I quoted. Sorry for the mistake.

  5. 255
    redmondjp says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 244:

    By David B. @ 239:

    RE: Warren Hutch @ 235 – Has the host of this blog “praised” foreign investors? Have I? We both own our own homes. Personally, I’d be very pleased if this market became more balanced between buyers and sellers.

    Stereotype much?

    If anything it’s been the opposite of praise. It’s bordered on racist, and probably crossed that border a few times.

    Oh cheeze and crackers, Kary, pulling the ‘R’ card out already? Give me a break.

  6. 256
    Warren Hutch says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 253
    Why would it be racist to point out a fact? There is more foreign money coming into this area into real estate; and teachers and such are priced out.

    Criticize my comment about the GREED (dollar signs in their eyes) that current homeowners feel about this inflow of money but it’s crazy to say that pointing out a fact is racist…sheesh.

    Also, you miss my point regarding this imbalance of equity. Communities want services that can build a great society but are unwilling to support the services and people that provide such services.

  7. 257

    By Marcel @ 78:

    FYI, for everyone’s reading pleasure. My sister’s in-laws are selling their home in Bellevue. 5 all cash offers. All foreigners.
    The struggle is real..

    By SFraz @ 138:

    This “temporary” exemption for foreigners, handed to the real estate industry in 2002, is now under fire. In their letter to the Treasury’s Financial Crimes unit, the 17 groups are asking that this exemption be yanked, that real estate professionals and banks be required to perform due diligence on these foreign buyers – just like they already have to with American buyers. Why should foreign buyers go scot-free?

    By SFraz @ 220:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 204 – Racist? If I attempt to buy a home with 10 million cash, I will be reported for suspicious activity as a US citizen. If a foreign national buys that same home with 10.5 million cash, they are waved through the process, while I am being investigated. Due to the loophole in the Patriot Act, real estate agents and brokers aren’t required to do due diligence on who the buyers are, and it is fueling the rise of international real estate buyers in the U.S. This is money laundering. It has nothing to do with racism. Don’t pull that card out.

    Seems like stuff you’d hear at a Trump rally to me, and that’s just this thread.

    It also reminds me a bit of condo owners complaining about the renters.

  8. 258

    By Warren Hutch @ 255:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 253
    Why would it be racist to point out a fact? There is more foreign money coming into this area into real estate; and teachers and such are priced out.

    Fact? There’s a fact there? I assume you mean “more foreign money.” Thank you for being so specific. I’ll work on making a chart.

    Or maybe it’s that teachers can’t buy houses in Bellevue? Yep, foreigners to blame for that.

    Your arguments are not based on statistics. They are based on whining and complaining. Us against them.

  9. 259
    SFraz says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 256 – You are a very angry rude man. Great salesmanship Kary. You know there is proof. You just don’t want to see it as it would not be beneficial to your pocket. Blaming the people who are being priced out of reach is easier, because it wouldn’t be prudent to step on the toes of those all cash buyers, aka money launderers.

  10. 260
    Anonymous Coward says:

    RE: SFraz @ 257 – I would respectfully like to see the proof that Kary has requested. I don’t live on the east side and have no desire to ever move there. I have always attributed the high price of east side real estate to the large number of households with relatively high incomes. IIRC, the top quintile for household income in Bellevue/Redmond starts at ~$180k/year. If you have data showing that there’s something else going on which is driving up prices, I’d love to see said data and be able to have a better informed opinion.

  11. 261
    AJT says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 258

    This is a quote I found on realtytrac. Note author of the quote.
    “According to the Asian Real Estate Association of America, Seattle is currently the sixth most popular destination for Chinese immigrants in the world. And there’s good reason for it; Seattle is the closest mainland U.S. city to travel to from Beijing and offers things that really appeal to the Chinese, like clean air, quality education, and employment opportunities with several Fortune 500 companies,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market. “This is why Chinese buyers are now estimated to represent upwards of 40 to 50 percent of all real estate activity in Seattle’s most expensive neighborhoods, of which at least 75 percent are paid in cash. While some call this a trend, I believe it’s an emerging aspect of our market that’s here to stay for the foreseeable future.”

  12. 262

    By SFraz @ 257:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 256 – You are a very angry rude man. Great salesmanship Kary. You know there is proof. .

    No, I don’t know there’s proof, and as I indicated in post 128 I am really skeptical of any claims regarding the number of foreign buyers. There’s no realistic way to determine how many foreign buyers there are!

    All you have is some anecdotal evidence, which probably not only based in reality, but to the extent it is probably based on skin color, accent or language spoken. Hence my comments that this discussion borders on racist (although nationalist would possibly be a better term, since the discussion is apparently based on citizenship).

    Also, I would suggest some of you Google the term “Fair Housing.”

  13. 263
  14. 264

    By AJT @ 259:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 258

    This is a quote I found on realtytrac. Note author of the quote.

    . . .

    said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market.

    I just want to note the irony of someone from this site using that type of source as evidence.

  15. 265
    ESS says:

    By AJT @ 259:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 258

    This is a quote I found on realtytrac. Note author of the quote.
    “According to the Asian Real Estate Association of America, Seattle is currently the sixth most popular destination for Chinese immigrants in the world. And there’s good reason for it; Seattle is the closest mainland U.S. city to travel to from Beijing and offers things that really appeal to the Chinese, like clean air, quality education, and employment opportunities with several Fortune 500 companies,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market. “This is why Chinese buyers are now estimated to represent upwards of 40 to 50 percent of all real estate activity in Seattle’s most expensive neighborhoods, of which at least 75 percent are paid in cash. While some call this a trend, I believe it’s an emerging aspect of our market that’s here to stay for the foreseeable future.”

    By AJT @ 259:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 258

    This is a quote I found on realtytrac. Note author of the quote.
    “According to the Asian Real Estate Association of America, Seattle is currently the sixth most popular destination for Chinese immigrants in the world. And there’s good reason for it; Seattle is the closest mainland U.S. city to travel to from Beijing and offers things that really appeal to the Chinese, like clean air, quality education, and employment opportunities with several Fortune 500 companies,” said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate, covering the Seattle market. “This is why Chinese buyers are now estimated to represent upwards of 40 to 50 percent of all real estate activity in Seattle’s most expensive neighborhoods, of which at least 75 percent are paid in cash. While some call this a trend, I believe it’s an emerging aspect of our market that’s here to stay for the foreseeable future.”

    ————————————————————————————————————————–

    That is great news for the homeowners of Puget Sound – I didn’t know that Seattle was so high up on the list of desirable places for immigrants. These buyers are helping to support the real estate market in all of Puget Sound, and by paying all cash are also stabilizing the market in any future downturn. They aren’t going to walk away from their houses if the market drops ten or twenty percent as in the past. We have all witnessed what life can be like in a declining real estate market environment, it isn’t pretty.

    There are many more homeowners than buyers – so this is actually good news rather than bad news for a larger group of people residing in the Puget Sound area. We hear the sad stories of potential home owners that can’t secure a residence, but we don’t hear about those who sell at a premium and are thrilled to get the money out of their homes, especially if they retire to another part of the country. That is in part because bad news sells, and good news puts people to sleep.

    These top end home buyers create increased wealth for all homeowners by their activity. With more bidders than homes, every home sold that had multiple offers creates a domino effect as other potential homeowners bid either on less expensive homes or in less trendy neighborhoods, thus supporting the prices of homes in other areas. And those who are outbid don’t continue to bid, they continue to rent, which also helps the real estate economy.

    It is also good news for various governmental entities, because it gives them all more valuable assets to tax. This is why there may be talk about clamping down on questionable real estate transactions, but it will never totally happen. Government officials are not going to crack down on the goose that lays the golden (salary and pension) egg.

    And while I don’t own real estate in those expensive areas that are the target of our rich new neighbors and friends, that type of activity has a ripple affect in the entire area. Or as they say, all boats in a rising tide are elevated. And that not only includes yachts, but also rowboats like mine.

  16. 266
    AJT says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 261

    Not sure if one can extrapolate what is going on in Irvine to Seattle area any better than NY but here is some more recent information.

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-09-30/80-all-new-home-buyers-irvine-are-chinese

  17. 267

    RE: AJT @ 263 – Zerohedge is not a credible source for anything, but I will note that when searching I did find a Zerohedge article that had been pulled–so apparently they have some standards. But note the source for their quote–the guy quoted is just pulling a number out of his ass!

    I don’t know how many ways to say this, but there is no way of knowing the citizenship of people buying real estate! For sellers there would be some records, due to IRS regulations, but I’m not sure that information is public.

    Now maybe we could switch the subject a bit and blame the rise on prices to the tech industry. I realize that though will be only temporary because someone will then note that many of the tech workers are foreigners–but hopefully they won’t make Trump-like assumptions that those employees are money launderers.

  18. 268
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Blake @ 252 – Consume and obey, citizen.

    Hillary PAC Spends $1 Million to ‘Correct’ Commenters on Reddit and Facebook
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/21/hillary-pac-spends-1-million-to-correct-commenters-on-reddit-and-facebook.html

  19. 269
    AJT says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 264
    I completely agree that there is no way of knowing who is buying. I don’t think one can argue, though, that there is an affect from foreign monies on Seattle area RE. I guess that is my point. I also believe the primary driver for this frenzy is the super stinking strong job market. When I interject the foreign buyers I would really like feedback about if that changes would that put downward pressure on the demand side of the equation at the margins?

    I’m not a huge fan of Zero Hedge myself as I am not a prepper by an means and it was the first to come up in my search engine, but here is a link to the Seattle Times that we can probably extrapolate that not all foreign nationalists are buying only the megamansions.

    http://old.seattletimes.com/html/realestate/2027958940_luxurysalesxml.html?syndication=rss

    Also, as far as quoting realtytrac? I’m new here and was unaware that that was a fopaux.

  20. 270

    By AJT @ 266:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 264 – Also, as far as quoting realtytrac? I’m new here and was unaware that that was a fopaux.

    It’s not Realtytrac, it’s who they quoted. Tim has or used to have a monthly piece that would be primarily quotes of agents in newspapers.

    Most of my problem with this, ignoring the Trump-like money laundering claims, is just the total lack of data. There are a lot or real estate topics where someone makes a bunch of claims and then the press and others accept it. This old blog piece of mine is a good example of that, and the study there had a lot more data than this area has, and it still was worthless.

    http://blog.seattlepi.com/realestate/2009/08/06/have-we-become-a-nation-of-the-extremely-gullible-its-on-the-internet-it-must-be-true/

  21. 271
    AJT says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 267
    Thank you for your insight!

  22. 272
    Blake says:

    By Blurtman @ 265:

    RE: Blake @ 252 – Consume and obey, citizen.

    Hillary PAC Spends $1 Million to ‘Correct’ Commenters on Reddit and Facebook
    http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/04/21/hillary-pac-spends-1-million-to-correct-commenters-on-reddit-and-facebook.html

    heh heh… leave it to Hillary’s team of corporate lawyers to find loopholes in the laws they can exploit. $1 million to try to control social media… what idiots! I love how “Bernie Bros” like me are causing such problems for the elites!
    Best part is: The last 6+ months Hillary has spent $155,000,000 and blown a 55 point lead against a cranky, old Jewish Socialist from Vermont! I would love to be a fly on the wall each evening when she is berating her advisors… “Why can’t you make me more likeable!!?”

    Check out Hillary’s dark money operation:
    http://sunlightfoundation.com/blog/2015/12/03/behind-the-clinton-campaign-dark-money-allies/
    … among other things, her minion David Brock took over the ethics watchdog “Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington!”
    … they will stop at nothing…

  23. 273
    Anonymous says:

    Can you have low inventory and still have a bubble? Or is it incongruous? I mean if people are setting new comps for price per sq ft and over bidding by $80k or $100k can there be a bubble? Or bidding on properties without mortgage or inspection or appraisals? If it is a crazy market can it still be a bubble with low inventory?

  24. 274
    Doug says:

    Polling the group here to see who uses Zillow, Redfin, Trulia, Realtor, and/or Xome for home value estimates.

    I use them all to generally track the market and notice that Zillow and Trulia seem to be consistently high while Redfin seems maybe a bit low. Realtor and Xome seem pretty fair.

    What do others think? Does anyone have any insight into the specific differences in methodology each platform uses?

  25. 275

    RE: Doug @ 274 – Out of curiosity, are you using those just on your own house or on houses in many different areas. If just on one house I could see how they would act consistently, but on many different houses I would be surprised.

  26. 276
    Doug says:

    RE: Kary @ 275

    My own as well as others Seattle.

  27. 277
    Eastsider says:

    By Anonymous @ 273:

    Can you have low inventory and still have a bubble? Or is it incongruous? I mean if people are setting new comps for price per sq ft and over bidding by $80k or $100k can there be a bubble? Or bidding on properties without mortgage or inspection or appraisals? If it is a crazy market can it still be a bubble with low inventory?

    The FED’s money printing is creating bubbles everywhere you look… RE, stocks, bonds. I believe the FED is holding the vast majority of mortgages on their balance sheet. Without FED’s intervention, mortgage interest rate will be higher and property values will be lower as a result.

  28. 278

    RE: Eastsider @ 277 – Clearly it directly would have pushed bond prices higher. I wonder if it also was enough to offset losses on some types of mortgage debt held by large entities/investors? Mortgage assets wouldn’t get the same bump due to the possibility of refinancing, but there should be some effect.

  29. 279
    GoHawks says:

    RE: Anonymous @ 273 – demand is vastly exceeding supply. I vote no bubble.

  30. 280
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 277 – Perhaps the Fed should be audited. Recall that Bernanke used the same criminal rating agencies to rate the crap the Fed began accumulating. These criminal organizations should have lost their Nationally Recognized Statistical Rating Organization (NRSRO) designation, but that would take action by a corrupted SEC. How much toxic dreck that the Fed paid face value for will never recover? And yes, more and more of the same with Hillary.

  31. 281
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 277:

    The FED’s money printing is creating bubbles everywhere you look… RE, stocks, bonds. I believe the FED is holding the vast majority of mortgages on their balance sheet.

    You believe wrong. The 1-4 family mortgage market is just shy of $10T. The Fed balance sheet at 3/31/16 holds not quite $1.7T in government guaranteed mortgages.

    If real estate prices are flat in some areas of the country, rising moderately in others, and exploding in yet others; how is the last group a FED driven bubble?

  32. 282
    Irrational Exhuberance says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 209

    So essentially what you are saying is, “the low, middle and recently middle-high income earners cannot afford the services that the real estate, commercial, State and Federal governments provide to its citizens and most likely should move to a country that has a lower price. In effect liberty and justice is not for all, it is for the very wealthy and high cash flow earners, representative democracy is a luxury item with this world view and that is a vile outlook on society and I am appalled that this reasoning is spread on a real estate blog.

  33. 283

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 210
    Trump Wants Kasich and Cruz to Drop Out of the Race

    The establishment doesn’t want the GOP unified, so fight Trump or steal lose delegates from him? The GOP is pro-Democrat if that’s true….?

    Get used to it Seattle Bubble Sellers and Buyers….the home prices have to go up if Trump gets our manufacturing jobs back…..ohhhhhh….that’s right, the brainless establishment alleges Americans are too stupid to make their own stuff….LOL….and jobs disappear when we get manufacturing back?

    We’ve become brainless when it comes to business common sense…and Gates is the non-engineer engineer expert on job planning too….LOL….anyone is called an engineer now….

  34. 284

    RE: Blake @ 205
    That’s Why I Believe Trump Wins Washington St in a Landslide in a General Election

    Sick “crooked Hillary” voters switching to Trump because Bernie lost [the Silent Majority votes]….Trump and Bernie [along with 70%+ of Americans] hate lobbyists control of the RNC and DNC….Hillary makes huge profits from her superpacs….Trump and Bernie agree on stop paying for NATO’s refugee mess too…UK agrees with Trump and Bernie too…they pulled out of the pro-refugee EU.

    Now watch home prices in Seattle really surge with Trump American manufacturing and engineering jobs momentum!

  35. 285
    Som says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 282 – Manufacturing jobs are just a level up minimum wage jobs. Moving from agrarian to an industrialized economy uplifted the collective wealth of the masses century ago. Moving from a manufacturing to a technological innovation economy is the next evolution path. We are already on that path with our r&d, silicon valley, biotech, AI, stem cells, and much much more.

    Problem is majority of Trump supporters do not have the education and do not want to work smart. Standing in a manufacturing line is hard work but not smart work. So to appease the poorly educated, Trump wants to drag everyone down rather than tell the moochers on the right to educate themselves, work hard and smart, and stop watching fox news and drinking 2 gallon pepsi every day.

    Race to the bottom to serve the bottom feeders. Funny how the narrative on the right is so twisted – truth is that the folks on the right are largely incompetent and their fear of competition drives their narrative.

  36. 286
    Anonymous Coward says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 283 – I don’t see how Seattle real estate prices are going to surge under the “Trump brings back American manufacturing jobs” scenario. Where are those jobs going to come from? From China, right? And Boeing is going to continue to build and sell all those airplanes to all those Chinese airlines paid for by all those newly jobless Chinese buying airplane tickets so their can go on vacation? Or are the newly hired American workers now going to be traveling to Macau on vacation and back to Chongqing to visit their parents in the old village for the holidays?

  37. 287
    redmondjp says:

    By Som @ 284:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 282 – Manufacturing jobs are just a level up minimum wage jobs. Moving from agrarian to an industrialized economy uplifted the collective wealth of the masses century ago. Moving from a manufacturing to a technological innovation economy is the next evolution path. We are already on that path with our r&d, silicon valley, biotech, AI, stem cells, and much much more.

    Problem is majority of Trump supporters do not have the education and do not want to work smart. Standing in a manufacturing line is hard work but not smart work. So to appease the poorly educated, Trump wants to drag everyone down rather than tell the moochers on the right to educate themselves, work hard and smart, and stop watching fox news and drinking 2 gallon pepsi every day.

    Race to the bottom to serve the bottom feeders. Funny how the narrative on the right is so twisted – truth is that the folks on the right are largely incompetent and their fear of competition drives their narrative.

    You are hilariously deluded. So the bottom-feeders on the right are dumb, left-leaning progressives are smart. Got it.

    And you are right about the progression of things, agrarian > manufacturing > tech. But guess what? The EXACT SAME THING that happened in those sectors, is right now starting to happen in tech. What’s that, you say? Automation. Do you really think we need millions of people writing code? Get real. The next shift will leave thousands of tech workers unemployed, thus lowering real wages in that sector since they have been flat for over a decade:

    http://www.epi.org/publication/causes-of-wage-stagnation/

  38. 288
    Som says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 286 – Umm…let’s see. There is one side that talks about science, technology, college education, space exploration, innovation. There is the other side that talks about guns, guns, killing nasa budget, preaching 2000 year old books, hatin em lgbt/mexicans/chinese. I seriously cannot fathom the human mind that does not see the obvious.

    Tech is not just writing code (gotta get out of redmond sometimes). Even so, every industry will be disrupted with tech and underlying that is code. Things are just getting started and there is still a century of work left in just standard tech work, as per your definition.

    But then yes there will be tech workers (like softwareengineer on seattlebubble) who will not evolve and move to the status quo party (hate me some progress party). And there will be those that will work smart and evolve and push progress.

    The right has twisted the narrative so bad that it is unbelievable what em incompetents get away with. A patriot to them is a beer drinker draped in a flag, shooting duck with machine guns, and hatin some foreigners.

    A real patriot is one who pushes progress to take the country to it’s next potential. Truth hurts even though it is not true. Wrap your mind around that.

  39. 289
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Som @ 284 – If you want to see that argument shredded, review the series of Charlie Rose 1994 interviews with Sir James Goldsmith and Laura Tyson. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PQrz8F0dBI

    Having myself had a similar discussion with Janet Yellen at UC Berkeley 1988’ish time frame, I am not happy to report that I was right and she was wrong. The Yellen and Tyson argument is just ivory tower claptrap – that the USA should focus on high tech jobs where it has an edge, and let manufacturing go to the lower cost markets. How is that working out for most Americans?

    Lost Dream: 90% Of Americans Are Worse Off Today Than They Were In The Early 1970s
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2016/04/23/lost-dream-90-of-americans-are-worse-off-today-than-they-were-in-the-early-1970s/#171a1f345dde

  40. 290
    Eastsider says:

    By whatsmyname @ 281:

    You believe wrong. The 1-4 family mortgage market is just shy of $10T. The Fed balance sheet at 3/31/16 holds not quite $1.7T in government guaranteed mortgages.

    If real estate prices are flat in some areas of the country, rising moderately in others, and exploding in yet others; how is the last group a FED driven bubble?

    To give some perspective, the FED held ZERO MBS in 2009. As you mentioned, it now holds over $1.7T of MBS. (Significant amount of MBS is held by foreign CBs and institutions.)

    Here is a quote from the FED –

    “The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way.”

    In practical terms, it means continued FED purchase of nearly *ALL* newly originated MBS. That is, every new mortgage loan issued in the past few years was funded by the FED. Without FED support, we would have no housing market to speak of. How would you explain the meteoric rise in home prices in the past 8 years otherwise?

  41. 291
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Som @ 287 – Som, I’m so glad you decided to come to this country to make it better. You’re a real patriot in my book. We need more people just like you. Too bad that we can’t send all of the Trump supporters back to where you came from.

    Science, technology, space exploration, free syringes, college, and innovation will solve all of society’s problems. Just take Seattle, for example. Seattle is so full of intelligent, left-thinking, progressive patriots that they will soon run out of problems to solve. I look forward to living in this brave new world.

    In the mean time, come over to Redmond and buy a shiny new $1.6M house. The realtor sat inside it today for the open house for five hours without a single visitor that I could see. And the two new houses next door will be on the market next weekend too so there are plenty to go around. Buy now before those Vancouver B.C. buyers get wind of what a relative bargain Seattle real estate is and snap them up.

  42. 292
    whatsmyname says:

    By Eastsider @ 289:

    “To give some perspective, the FED held ZERO MBS in 2009. As you mentioned, it now holds over $1.7T of MBS. (Significant amount of MBS is held by foreign CBs and institutions.)”

    To give it a little more perspective, 70% of that increase occurred from mid-2009 to mid 2010. It was a big part of QE. No surprises there.

    “The Committee is maintaining its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its holdings of agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities in agency mortgage-backed securities and of rolling over maturing Treasury securities at auction, and it anticipates doing so until normalization of the level of the federal funds rate is well under way.”

    They are 1. Reinvesting principal payments from mortgage related investments, (holding a constant balance), and 2. reinvesting maturing treasuries, (holding a constant balance) – All this means is “no taper this week, boys”.

    “In practical terms, it means continued FED purchase of nearly *ALL* newly originated MBS. That is, every new mortgage loan issued in the past few years was funded by the FED.”

    There are $1T in mortgage originations, even in bad years. In big refinance years like 2013 and 2014, there can be over $2T. Six years of this does not add up to $1.7T.

    “How would you explain the meteoric rise in home prices in the past 8 years otherwise?”

    There has been no meteoric rise in home prices in Atlanta, or Detroit, or Cleveland, or Charlotte, or Chicago, or Tampa. Does the FED have no mojo in these places?

  43. 293
    Blurtman says:

    “The threat by Saudi Arabia to “dump US treasuries” (yes that would constitute a genuine dump), is nothing more than an obvious bluff. If Saudi sold treasuries it would get US dollars. What would it do with them?”

    https://mishtalk.com/2016/04/24/understanding-the-saudi-chinese-economic-nuclear-war-threat-saudi-911-round-up/#more-37225

    Buy RE in the Northwest.

  44. 294
  45. 295
    Kmac says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 291 – LOL!!

  46. 296
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By Som @ 288:

    RE: redmondjp @ 286
    A real patriot is one who pushes progress to take the country to it’s next potential. Truth hurts even though it is not true. Wrap your mind around that.

    A real patriot is one who understands what makes their country unique*, buys into the premises, and advocates for the things that make their nation a nation. “One who pushes progress to take [their] country to it’s next potential” is so ambiguous as to be next to meaningless. For example, technological “progress” could consist of a gov’t having logged access to all of it’s people’s communications or it could consist of a people having access to secure communication methods completely immune from any snooping by nosy gov’t employees.

    *aka why are we a country even; why not unite with other country [XYZ]? What makes us different from every other country and why are those things important?

  47. 297
    Marcel says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 262

    As I stated previously, and to all the naysayers, let me provide you some evidence. My sister’s in-laws are selling their home in Bellevue. They got FIVE, yes FIVE, all cash offers from ALL Chinese families. $35k above asking price.

    From my observation, the Chinese are taking their money out of China and pouring it into the U.S. real estate market. Why? potentially an economic downturn in China just around the corner.

  48. 298
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 296 – Well-stated, AC! Way back in the 1950s, the globalists (those advocating for one-world government) stated that the strong nationalism/patriotism of the United States was a significant obstacle to overcome. One can easily recognize this globalist mindset in some of the comments above. This issue is innately connected to our local housing market as has been discussed previously.

    Oh, yesterday was another dead Open House Sunday at the new $1.6M McMansion near me. I did not see a single car all day long. Has the market turned, or is it just overpriced? Only time will tell . . .

  49. 299

    By Marcel @ 297:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 262

    As I stated previously, and to all the naysayers, let me provide you some evidence. My sister’s in-laws are selling their home in Bellevue. They got FIVE, yes FIVE, all cash offers from ALL Chinese families. $35k above asking price.

    From my observation, the Chinese are taking their money out of China and pouring it into the U.S. real estate market. Why? potentially an economic downturn in China just around the corner.

    And that is proof of what–that people who read things on the Internet are gullible? Why should we accept your so-called proof?

    Also, did your sister-in-law check the buyers’ passports? If so, did the listing agent fire her immediately?

  50. 300
    Som says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 298 – Incompetence breeds pseudo nationalism. I thought we were done with that stuff when we got rid of you-know-who in the 1940s.

    But I forgot that incompetent shills will always be there in this world in every country. Progress != globalism but I can see the myopic view through which folks see it like that.

    Well I don’t enjoy talking to a wall. Peace out.

  51. 301
    Marcel says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 299

    With that kind of reasoning, why should we accept anything that is said by ANYONE in this entire thread? Why should we accept anything you say, right? Clearly that’s not the route we want to take.

    I gave you facts and data. With enough data, one can make a logical conclusion.

    No, she didn’t. It doesn’t take an FBI background check to tell if someone is Chinese or if they’re African american.

    I’ve simply noticed you are one of the few naysayers on this thread that keeps saying something to the effect of ‘there’s no proof or data that Chinese money is flooding Seattle.’ I, and others, have provided data otherwise.

    We’ll let the readers make their own conclusion now.

  52. 302

    RE: Marcel @ 301 – Well, first you’re anonymous. What that means should be obvious. You could say whatever you want and it could not be verified. Not everyone here is anonymous and/or can actually point to facts that can be verified.

    Second, it’s extremely unlikely that your SIL knows the citizenship of the buyers, which is the topic. Sellers don’t typically know the citizenship of buyers. I once had a buyer who had to wire funds from a foreign country. I knew his national origin was that country, but I have no idea what his citizenship at the time of purchase was, nor did his seller.

  53. 303
    Dave says:

    Our friend Michelle Meyer, US economist for Bank of America Merrill Lynch, laid out the problem in today’s chart-of-the-day.

    To paraphrase, “Something is wrong with the housing market, and it’s the opposite problem of the most recent housing crisis.”

    Instead of too many people buying homes they can’t afford, there simply aren’t enough homes available for people who want them. This is causing prices to go up and keeping would-be new homebuyers out of the market.

    Nicely explained with no economic (poor) or demographic (race) card necessary to play. ;)

  54. 304
    redmondjp says:

    By Som @ 300:

    RE: redmondjp @ 298 – Incompetence breeds pseudo nationalism. I thought we were done with that stuff when we got rid of you-know-who in the 1940s.

    But I forgot that incompetent shills will always be there in this world in every country. Progress != globalism but I can see the myopic view through which folks see it like that.

    Well I don’t enjoy talking to a wall. Peace out.

    Som, you need to look in the mirror sometime, because what you just said equally applies to you.

    Anybody who doesn’t hold Som’s progressive, neopatriotic view is obviously an incompetent Trump-supporting shill (and by association must sympathize with thou-who-shan’t be named from the 1940s and other organizations like the kay-kay-kay). Nice Democratic talking points you are using there.

    Instead of you being the wall, coming here and then trying to bulldoze over generations’ worth of history, culture, and traditions to make this country into something that it isn’t, why don’t you go back home and do the same thing there. I doubt that they would be nearly as receptive to your progressive ideas.

  55. 305
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 302

    1. You may discount his anecdote evidence but I don’t believe he made it up. Many of us have experienced or witnessed a flood of Chinese cash buyers.

    2. It is not too difficult to tell the citizenship when the buyer asks to extend closing time to bring money out of China (which happens rather frequently.) Sometimes you even see Chinese notary document during the sale.

    Yes, I am anonymous too. LOL.

  56. 306
    Blurtman says:

    A $1.1 million dollar home in the neighborhood just came on the market, The seller must love Yellen as he bought for over $900k in 2006. A stroll by the home revealed two families checking out the home. Guess which countries they were from?

    In the neighborhood are two recent home buyers from China – extended families. I say hi to the them when the dog is out walking me. The grandparents always take a morning and evening constitutional around the hood. I think that is cool.

    Two homes to the right of BlurtManse are two Indian families from India. Great cooking smells frequently emanate. One of the kids turned into a juvenile delinquent, pothead, in trouble with the law. Can’t get any more American than that.

  57. 307
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 306 – Same in my neighborhood. How do I know what citizenship my new neighbors have? I go ASK them! Pakistan, Pakistan, China, Russia, India, Kentucky, India are the birthplaces of the newest owners in my neighborhood. You do the math.

  58. 308
    Warren Hutch says:

    I’m not interested in proving a fact. For those who already agree with the fact, here’s an interesting piece regarding the NY market:

    “Foreign buyers have accounted for anywhere from 15 percent of total New York City purchases, to as much as 40 percent of Manhattan’s high-priced buys in recent years, real estate expert Jonathan Miller told DNA Info.

    The U.S. Treasury Department’s recent mandate that the identity of foreign buyers be made known, for purchases above $3 million, could be discouraging overseas investors from buying pricey real estate. And that could have a dramatic impact on sales going forward.”
    -http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/28/this-real-estate-market-is-about-to-crash-commentary.html

    That the US Treasury recently mandated this intrigues me. Maybe the mandate has diverted buyers to the Seattle area…

    Also, I don’t really care where people are coming from to buy Seattle homes. What I do care about is that they provide the tax base necessary to help us make our communities livable and affordable. I don’t want to see our new citizens erode our past or current quality of life. The property tax formula should include the last sale price of the house in some way [not sure how it’s currently calculated so if someone would like to enlighten me, I’m all ears].

  59. 309
    Marcel says:

    Kary L. Krismer would tell poster 305, 306, 307, 308 and myself that unless we’re personally checking passports or conducting DNA tests, we’re delusional or making this up.

    I’ll be honest, I was really skeptical about the data as well. I kept reading on this blog about foreign buyers and I was skeptical to believe it myself… until it happened to my extended family. Now I know it to be true.

  60. 310
    Blurtman says:

    RE: redmondjp @ 307 – Kentucky? There goes the neighborhood.

  61. 311

    By Marcel @ 309:

    Kary L. Krismer would tell poster 305, 306, 307, 308 and myself that unless we’re personally checking passports or conducting DNA tests, we’re delusional or making this up.

    No, what I’m saying is it’s not credible evidence of anything.

    Seriously, who in their right mind walks up to a neighbor and asks them about their citizenship? That might come up in conversation, but you’d have to know them fairly well for that to occur. But when it comes to knowing the citizenship of five different families that made an offer on one house, this is particularly uncredible.

    It wouldn’t surprise me that 30% or more of these supposed Chinese citizens aren’t even Chinese, but instead some other Asian ethnicity. But I’m focusing more on knowing their citizenship. Not something a seller or even their real estate agent is likely to know.

  62. 312

    By Warren Hutch @ 308:

    I’m not interested in proving a fact. For those who already agree with the fact, here’s an interesting piece regarding the NY market:

    “Foreign buyers have accounted for anywhere from 15 percent of total New York City purchases, to as much as 40 percent of Manhattan’s high-priced buys in recent years, real estate expert Jonathan Miller told DNA Info.

    -http://www.cnbc.com/2016/03/28/this-real-estate-market-is-about-to-crash-commentary.html

    More if it’s in print is must be true. There is no data on that topic. Just someone pulling a number out of their ass.

  63. 313
    redmondjp says:

    By Blurtman @ 310:

    RE: redmondjp @ 307 – Kentucky? There goes the neighborhood.

    Heh heh heh! The most surprising thing is that they are agnostic.

  64. 314

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 312

    Jonathan doesn’t pull numbers out of his butt, nor does he like to make predictions. But to correct the quote in the above comment, he didn’t say 15% to 40%. That would be a huge spread. He said around 15% overall and as much as 40% for new construction. He also said there was no real, hard data. But given his connections (he is not a real estate agent) I’d say he’s about right or he wouldn’t say it. Also, he is talking about “foreign” as in not citizens and not any specific Country. While he is talking about Manhattan, those numbers as to overall and new construction are likely not far off from what we see here.

    Interesting that some of the new construction in NYC is “marketing directly to China, Malaysia and Singapore before advertising to locals.”

    https://www.dnainfo.com/new-york/20160126/midtown/5-things-you-need-know-about-how-foreign-buyers-affect-local-real-estate

    That the Feds targeted only two markets for the “who is buying” crackdown also suggests that they have an inside track to numbers that are not far off from Jonathan’s.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/14/us/us-will-track-secret-buyers-of-luxury-real-estate.html?_r=0

    Also I’m surprised to hear you say this:

    “But I’m focusing more on knowing their citizenship. Not something a seller or even their real estate agent is likely to know.”

    You often speak of how much an agent should know about a buyer’s ability to finance and your vetting specific lenders. Given various lenders have different policies based on citizenship and type of visa status, I would think you would support that agents would or should know these things as part of the pre-approval process on the buyer side and part of the selection in multiple offers process on the sell side.

  65. 315

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 314:

    You often speak of how much an agent should know about a buyer’s ability to finance and your vetting specific lenders. Given various lenders have different policies based on citizenship and type of visa status, I would think you would support that agents would or should know these things as part of the pre-approval process on the buyer side and part of the selection in multiple offers process on the sell side.

    I would not even consider asking a buyer their citizenship if I were representing a seller. Would you ask a buyer: “Your name is funny–what is your national origin?” It’s a protected class!

    I’m actually a bit surprised to see some agents even bring up their made up statistics, because it raises the question why they are looking into such things. I’m not sure the feds would look at that favorably, and I don’t see a valid explanation that an agent could give as their reason for trying to track such things.

    But curious, if you don’t think he’s pulling numbers out of his butt, where do you think he’s getting the numbers?

  66. 316
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 315

    Oh please stop your nonsense Kary, almost every single agent I have ever met asks me where I am from once we start talking. It is a completely natural and normal thing to do.

    People ask where people are from, what they do and such like as a matter of course. it would be weird to have a client and ignore that they are clearly not from the area.
    (And your pretense that this is about asking clients about their citizenship is a patent ploy. )

  67. 317

    RE: greg @ 316 – Just because you don’t understand something, it doesn’t mean it is nonsense. It means you don’t understand.

    And again, I’m talking about citizenship, not where someone “is from.” That alone shows you don’t understand what I’m talking about. So again, not nonsense, just something you don’t understand.

    And again, I’m primarily talking about sellers and seller’s agents. But even as a buyer’s agent I would be unlikely to know their citizenship, unless the topic came up somehow.

    And again as in Post 262 I would suggest Googling the term “Fair Housing” and then maybe you’ll understand.

  68. 318
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By greg @ 316:

    Oh please stop your nonsense Kary, almost every single agent I have ever met asks me where I am from once we start talking. It is a completely natural and normal thing to do.

    It’s also completely natural to ask a pregnant woman when she’s due. That does not mean you won’t lose the inevitable lawsuit should you ask that while interviewing a candidate for a job.

  69. 319
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 317

    Oh kary I understand it. The real issue is your nonsense pretense that the issue is citizenship. It is NOT and you know it is not. But lacking any rebuttal to the other posters you launched into nonsense about citizenship rather than stay on point.
    It is a tactic you use time and again when you find you have painted yourself into yet another corner.

    In short once you figured out that you had no strong rebuttal ref Chinese buyers you took off on a BS tangent inserting your straw man citizenship BS in place of the original point .

    shame on you Kary, you claim to be a pro but act like a petulant child.

  70. 320

    By greg @ 319:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 317

    Oh kary I understand it. The real issue is your nonsense pretense that the issue is citizenship. It is NOT and you know it is not. .

    Okay, I was giving you the benefit of the doubt that it wasn’t just you being racist. I was assuming you thought that US citizens of asian backgrounds had an equal right to buy property in the United States and that there would be no reason to complain of, mention or track such activity. But now that we know you’re just being racist I’ll quit trying to engage you in a logical discussion.

  71. 321
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 320

    once again you resort to lies and slander rather than engage in meaningful discussion.
    Your new tangent is to pretend it is racist to talk about where people come from .

    Good luck with that Kary, people ask me where I am from all the time. From the guy at the check out to the RE agent I spoke with a few days ago. Only in your distorted mind is it racist to engage in friendly conversations such as “where are you from” etc…

    Hell now that i think of it , that makes my first US based RE agent a complete racist! (according to your bs made up standard) Within 5 mins of meeting us she asked where we are from, so in your books that made her a racist! But as a true Pro she was finding out more about us to help us make better choices and to figure out what level of support we might need.
    In fact she even introduced us to a few people she had met earlier that year, who were from the same area as ourselves.

    I have said it before but I will say it again, Shame on you Kary. You discredit your entire industry with your petty egoistical rants.

  72. 322

    By greg @ 321:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 320

    once again you resort to lies and slander rather than engage in meaningful discussion.
    Your new tangent is to pretend it is racist to talk about where people come from .

    Not what I said. You’re really dense, but I’ll try it one more time.

    No one should be concerned about “Chinese” people buying local real estate any more than anyone should be concerned about African Americans, Hispanics or any other ethnic group buying real estate.

    The topic apparently comes up here though because some people think foreign money is flowing in from China. There’s also nothing wrong with that, but some people think that this group of people are apparently more inclined to be involved in money laundering than other groups of people.

    The only way to distinguish between whether a person is likely to be bringing in foreign money is their citizenship.

    You don’t think citizenship is relevant to this discussion, and that bringing citizenship into this just a pretext. If citizenship is not relevant, then you apparently have an issue of people of certain races buying local real estate. That makes you a racist.

    Comprehend, or is that over your head too?

  73. 323
    Anonymous Coward says:

    greg @ 321:

    Within 5 mins of meeting us she asked where we are from

    Do you look/sound as if you’re from somewhere within the US? If she’s trying to figure out what state or town you grew up in, that would not place her in a bind as people from California (or even people from Kent) are not a protected class; i.e. no one is going to lose a lawsuit when they decide not to sell a house to someone relocating from California to Seattle. One will lose a lawsuit if theyrefuse to sell/do business with someone on the basis of their nationality or country of origin. If the agent asks that question and the answer comes back with anything other than somewhere in the US, it opens the door to future liability…

  74. 324
    Blurtman says:

    By Anonymous Coward @ 318:

    By greg @ 316:

    It’s also completely natural to ask a pregnant woman when she’s due.

    Never ask a woman who isn’t actually pregnant that question. The only pregnant thing that follows such a faux pas is the pause.

  75. 325
    greg says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 323

    clothing /makeup/haircuts can tell you a lot… but otherwise none of us look American ….

    I have a accent, it results in all sort of people asking where I am from, mostly they just want to be friendly.
    You see this is how I know kary is full of BS, I meet agents all the time, they all talk freely about such things.
    his pretense that they do not is just him acting the fool to protect his fragile ego.

  76. 326
    greg says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 324

    you make it look like you are quoting me, in fact at no point did I say that….in post 316…or any other post. please do not put words in my mouth.

  77. 327
    Blurtman says:

    By greg @ 326:

    RE: Blurtman @ 324

    you make it look like you are quoting me, in fact at no point did I say that….in post 316…or any other post. please do not put words in my mouth.

    Sense of humor, greg. You apparently lack one, as well as perhaps reading comprehension.

  78. 328
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 322

    In this case when you were shown to be incorrect (a number of posters corrected you) you went off point and starting chiming on about citizenship .(post 299) It is very typical of your posting habits.
    it is a tactic you use time and again. Rather than accepting your were wrong you instead fling random accusations.
    Kary ….this is your post (299)
    “””And that is proof of what–that people who read things on the Internet are gullible? Why should we accept your so-called proof?
    Also, did your sister-in-law check the buyers’ passports? If so, did the listing agent fire her immediately? “”””
    this is the post where you attempted to shift ground from people talking about Chinese buyers.
    You were lost and instead of providing a rebuttal you started pretending the issue was a legal one related to discussing citizenships…

    you deliberately threw a few red herrings into the thread to avoid having to acknowledge the posters example.

    Now when that has failed you are trying out “Racism” as yet another distraction .

    Shall I remind you , you are still the only person talking about passport and citizenship, everyone else was talking about the presence and impact of foreign investors.

    racism, passports, citizenship these are just your red herrings thrown out to distract from the original points raised.

    I have said it before and most likely will have to say it again. Shame on you Kary. I suggest you stop your nonsense and try to be a better ambassador for your occupation.

  79. 329

    RE: greg @ 328 – First, the issue came up in post 205 in response to an article posted at 190. So woooow, I waited a hole 15 posts to comment on something that came up.

    I don’t know what you think was incorrect in anything I said previously in this thread. In any case, it was probably just something else you didn’t understand. Others have tried to explain to you in recent posts why what I’m saying is a concern. You can’t understand them either. What does that tell you about your ability to understand things?

    But the bottom line is it’s very unlikely that a seller or a listing agent would know the citizenship of any buyer making an offer. Typically they only know the last name of the person because they never met them. That sellers don’t typically meet buyers is pretty basic stuff. Can you even understand that?

  80. 330
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 329

    nope, the bottom line is that you are in denial.

    The topic was NEVER about citizenship, that was something you injected . It was very simply people talking about the impact of Chinese monies, and the volume of Chinese buyers.

    You got all silly and started pretending it was about being able to “prove” where they were from.

    So again , nice try kary, but all this denial just makes you look childish.

  81. 331

    By greg @ 330:

    The topic was NEVER about citizenship, that was something you injected . It was very simply people talking about the impact of Chinese monies, and the volume of Chinese buyers..

    Chinese, as in people from China, who are citizens of China and bring in foreign money? For that you need to know citizenship.

    Chinese, as in anyone whose ancestors are from China? For that you don’t need to know citizenship, but if you’re concerned about that group (as you are), then you’re a racist.

    I was assuming most of the rest of the people here (subject to a couple of exceptions) were not being racist, and thus citizenship was relevant. But I’ll admit, it isn’t relevant to racists, so I can see why you don’t think citizenship is relevant. What I don’t understand is why you’re so dense that you can’t see how it’s relevant.

  82. 332
    Anonymous says:

    I noticed that after a neighboring house posted a record breaking $360/sq ft sale price that the ones for sale these past two weeks are more in the $300-315/sq ft price. Are they hoping for a bidding war? Or was that peak crazy? Or will it hit $400/sq ft first?

  83. 333

    RE: Anonymous @ 332 – Focusing on PPSF will get you some odd results. For one thing, smaller houses will sell for more per SF, all other things being equal.

    Note that appraisers don’t start with a PPSF figure and then multiply by the size of the house, and then adjust from there.

  84. 334
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 331

    It is pretty clear that rather than debate the topic you wish to wrap your self in the moral high ground by shouting racist…

    Here is a hint Kary, the term “Chinese” is it not racist, not even close. my guess is you are over compensating for something inside you….

    Frankly I am done dealing with your BS on this topic Kary. And you do yourself no favors arguing like a child on a public forum.

  85. 335

    So I guess when people in the 60s were worried about black people moving into their neighborhood, that was somehow different than some people today worrying about “Chinese” people buying into an area?

    People are people. Some have money and some don’t. If you’re worried about buyers’ race, and blaming rising prices on a certain race, you are a racist.

    And that gets me back to my original point–this is all imaginary. There are no stats on what race is currently buying what property. No one checks passports and names can be misleading. That there are no stats is part of what makes it racist.

  86. 336
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 335

    Again with the race card.

    When will you get it through your head, you are the only one here concerned about race. Every other poster is talking about the impact of MONEY , where it comes from relates not to race but to predicting the future course of events.

    I think at this point you are simply projecting your concerns about race on to others. You really need to take a long look at yourself.

    Punters here were talking about monies, both foreign and domestic, many are wondering about the nature of the monies , where it comes from , how long it is likely to stay and how much might come.
    The fact is extremely clear that about 1 trillion has left China, much of it headed into RE across the globe.

    But to you (just you,) it is racist to discuss Chinese monies unless we have documented proof of origin.

    I know I have said it many times before. But shame on you Kary, nobody is buying your weak sauce race card.

  87. 337

    When will you get it through your head, you are the only one here concerned about race. Every other poster is talking about the impact of MONEY , where it comes from relates not to race but to predicting the future course of events.

    Ignoring your absurd comment that you can somehow predict the future by determining where money comes from, you apparently forget there’s a record of what was said here. For example:

    By greg @ 89:

    RE: I’m just here so I won’t get Fined @ 85

    I see lots of Chinese buyers , mostly in the 750-1.5 m range , mostly homes that are “turn key”.

    Before this post by you, posts 2, 38,57,79, 81, 85, 87, 88 and 89 mentioned the Chinese. None of them were me.

    And if we take you at your word that “where it comes from” is somehow important, that gets back to my discussion of passports.

  88. 338
    AJT says:

    RE: greg @ 336
    This is what you need to say so that ethnicity is not questioned. “There seems to be a lot of Yuan converted into Greenbacks in order to purchase a home.” There, problem solved. This way no one can accuse you of being racists when we all know it is really just about where money is coming from that is stoking the fire of house prices.

  89. 339
    greg says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 337

    and again you are the one who tried to move this conversation from discussing monies to one of racism and passports.

    In other words, you had nothing to add to the conversation apart from name calling and accusations of racism.

    Again shame on you Kary.

  90. 340
    Anonymous says:

    @333 agrees but ppsf is a starting point. I’m curious if we’ve hit a new level of pricing. If instead of $250-300 it’s $300-350 but that might be the new ceiling. Why? Because buyers can’t afford more and these starter homes on the east side can they hit $800-900k in another 8 months? Can they increase another 25% in 8 months or is it just some people caught up in a bidding war emotion? Plus the bigger homes how much more expensive can they get? $1m? $1.5m? How many buyers are there in that market price point and higher?

    Normally economics suggest the higher the price point the smaller the pool of buyers. This would suggest that average working Joe’s price out versus really wealthy. I think we are hitting the ceiling of what dual income families are being allowed to borrow.

    Also I noticed a new construction bought last June for $705k, finished and sold in April 2016 for $735k close and relisted a week later for $830k. Its fine but I wonder if this type of speculation is indicator of a bubble . I am waiting to see how fast it goes pending. I did notice a couple of houses bought last year in February March 2015 were priced $100k higher in March 2016 Sat on the market a bit longer.

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