January Stats Preview: A Dark Winter For Homebuyers

Now that January is behind us, let’s take a look at the local housing market stats for the month. Short story: Somehow the market got even worse for homebuyers. Nearly nothing for sale and still strong competition.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snohomish County Stats Preview

Sales came in a good bit stronger than a year ago, but listings dropped to another new all-time lows in both counties. Foreclosures are still at their historic lows.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County fell 23 percent between December and January (a year ago they fell 36 percent over the same period), but were up 19 percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish fell 18 percent month-over-month (vs. a 34 percent decrease in the same period last year) and were up 18 percent from January 2016.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 44 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down 34 percent from last year.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were down 24 percent from a year ago. Still basically bouncing along the bottom.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

Inventory fell 12 percent between December and January in King County, and was down 24 percent from a year ago.

In Snohomish County it was the same story: Listings down 10 percent month-over-month and down 27 percent year-over-year.

Record low levels for both counties.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

95 comments:

  1. 1
    Deerhawke says:

    So … in our last episode in December, we saw 1,639 active listings , down a whopping 29.0% month-on-month and down 7.1% year-on-year. There was some speculation that listings were down because everything had been bought up in advance of the election and the rise in interest rates.

    This month , we were at 1444 actives in King county, down 12% MOM in a month when listings should be up substantially from December.

    People are voting with their listings. They are saying, in essence, “I am not going to sell because I think the price will go up again next month.”

    And weirdly, it is a self-fulfilling prophecy.

  2. 2

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1 – The 1639 number is a NWMLS number. The 1444 number is not. The NWMLS will 99.9999999% likely be higher. Stay tuned for Tim’s next post.

    Not that it isn’t down, but it isn’t that far down.

    Standard disclaimer that references to NWMLS numbers are from NWMLS sources, but not guaranteed.

  3. 3
    Macro Investor says:

    By Deerhawke @ 1:

    People are voting with their listings. They are saying, in essence, “I am not going to sell because I think the price will go up again next month.”

    Partly, hawk. Also, they are saying nothing but crap to buy so I’m stuck where I am.

  4. 4
    wilson_greatful_dead_69 says:

    The irony of Donald Trump is that he is going to drive more rich liberals to Seattle. This market is going nowhere but up for the next several years. There is a recession out there somewhere but the market is going up double digits easily by then. I feel sorry for average folks that will never be able to afford a home anywhere near Seattle, ever.

  5. 5
    Cap''n says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 3

    This. At this point I would think that most king county SFH listings are people cashing out, leaving the region or significantly down sizing. The move-up seller/buyer is pretty much dead in this market. I don’t think it is so much about waiting to sell until prices go up, but a self fulfilling prophecy in its own way nevertheless.

  6. 6
    ess says:

    By Macro Investor @ 3:

    By Deerhawke @ 1:

    People are voting with their listings. They are saying, in essence, “I am not going to sell because I think the price will go up again next month.”

    Partly, hawk. Also, they are saying nothing but crap to buy so I’m stuck where I am.

    I wonder if people are staying put because the costs of selling and buying have escalated. Sometimes the residence that one has occupied for a number of years appears to be more than adequate when factoring the expense of selling, buying, obtaining a new mortgage with associated expenses, and moving. It would be interesting to determine why people are not listing their properties. Is it anticipation of higher prices on the property they own, lack of a suitable replacement residence to relocate in the area, the overall cost of such a move, the realization that a bigger house isn’t required or some other factor? Other than direct surveys on this subject – how would one determine what the reasons are? Increase house remodeling activity YOY in any given Puget Sound area?

  7. 7

    RE: wilson_greatful_dead_69 @ 4
    Rich Liberals in Seattle???

    When did the Democrats become the rich….they were suppose to be for the working guy….LOL

    I guess Trump is the real Democrat Party now and the Progressives are just NWO Fascists for cheap labor….they accused the old Republicans of being the opposite of what they became too….

    Read Dean Koontz’s 1994 book about the NWO, its called Dark Rivers of the Heart…..its a fiction book but includes actual historical episodes/examples of real Government activities out of control against the majority electoral voters…you’ll be horrified to learn about the surveillance technology out there.

    Real News Headlines Today not in Seattle Times:

    FIRE OVER MILO AT BERKELEY…
    PROTESTERS MOUNT ASSAULT…
    Rampaging Students Destroying Campus…
    Anarchist violence…
    Man beaten unconscious…
    Trump threatens funds…

  8. 8

    By ess @ 6:

    By Macro Investor @ 3:

    By Deerhawke @ 1:

    People are voting with their listings. They are saying, in essence, “I am not going to sell because I think the price will go up again next month.”

    Partly, hawk. Also, they are saying nothing but crap to buy so I’m stuck where I am.

    I wonder if people are staying put because the costs of selling and buying have escalated. Sometimes the residence that one has occupied for a number of years appears to be more than adequate when factoring the expense of selling, buying, obtaining a new mortgage with associated expenses, and moving. It would be interesting to determine why people are not listing their properties.

    Yes it would be interesting, but I don’t know what costs you think have escalated. They’re pretty much the same or lower.

    The biggest thing is almost certainly the difficulty in finding a new home which is better than the existing home within a reasonable time. For those unable to get financing to buy first and sell later there would be a huge amount of uncertainty, and a great likelihood of needing two moves. Your existing home would need to be rather intolerable to your current needs to make that an attractive option. And with the higher prices and interest rates requiring greater income/assets to get that buy-first financing, fewer and fewer people have that option.

  9. 9
    js says:

    By Macro Investor @ 3:

    By Deerhawke @ 1:

    People are voting with their listings. They are saying, in essence, “I am not going to sell because I think the price will go up again next month.”

    Partly, hawk. Also, they are saying nothing but crap to buy so I’m stuck where I am.

    If interest rates continue to go up, homeowners with mortgages will have another reason to stay put.

  10. 10

    RE: softwarengineer @ 7RE: ess @ 6
    Macroinvestor and Deerhawk

    News On Q13 This Morning

    Flint Michigan water now in the rich liberal Bellevue neighborhood too….Hades, before I moved out of Bellevue and sold in 1996 [divorce sale, BTW] the rusty water mains thrown into the “cheap lower class [at that time] neighborhood” was a crumbling Bellevue infrastructure and were constantly “leaking like sifts”….this was in the 90s BTW….its far worse today. They recommend “boiling your water” before using [baths and laundry too???]….CA rinse water used for bagged lettuce today is contaminated….we’re overpopulated and water is scarce in America now.

    The rich elite deserve Bellevue….LOL

  11. 11
    Deerhawke says:

    It will be a few days until the MLS comes out with its press release, but Estately (which a lot of people don’t trust either) has the KC inventory number at 1475. But the point is that we are going to see a drop from December to January during a period when we normally see an increase as the spring market kicks off. This is a sign that it is going to be a very tight spring for buyers. You are in the cat bird’s seat if you are a seller.

    I agree that it is not a good time to be a move-up buyer — unless you have enough cash to buy your new place without having to rely on your current home for financing. The last two buyers I sold a house to were able to qualify without including their current home equity. They bought their move-up home and kept their homes as rentals.

  12. 12
    Shoreline Mom says:

    We bought our house in Shoreline before the 2005 bubble popped. When interest rates crashed in 2008 we refied to 3.6% and remodeled our home to fit our needs since it was clear we couldn’t sell it at that point for what we had in it. Now it’s worth a lot, but where do we move to? I’m not willing to lose my husband to a long commute simply to have a 3000 sq ft new house. Most of our neighbors have followed the same path and given up looking to move to a bigger (or newer) house. Also in our neighborhood alone there are eight homes with three generations living in them and two homes with four! When a cinderblock house on your street sells for $635k I think everyone realizes they are in a new world of real estate.

  13. 13

    By Deerhawke @ 11:

    They bought their move-up home and kept their homes as rentals.

    That’s also another factor, and maybe also that many of the “accidental landlords” from 2009-2012 have maybe decided that being a landlord isn’t all that bad–particularly while the asset value is rising.

  14. 14
    Dave says:

    By js @ 9:

    By Macro Investor @ 3:

    By Deerhawke @ 1:

    People are voting with their listings. They are saying, in essence, “I am not going to sell because I think the price will go up again next month.”

    Partly, hawk. Also, they are saying nothing but crap to buy so I’m stuck where I am.

    If interest rates continue to go up, homeowners with mortgages will have another reason to stay put.

    Bang! there it is, a perfect trifecta of why there is no inventory;

    1. expectations of increasing value (multiple vectors causing this) +
    2. insufficient new construction (nothing but crap put there) +
    3. interest rate increases (less incentive to buy new home #2) =
    lower available inventory!

    Very predictable and kudos to those of you who saw this coming after the 2008 incident.

    If history is a teacher things might become a bit ugly from here, just as they did in my old hometown after the 20th century ended.

  15. 15

    RE: Dave @ 14 – I don’t know that the lack of new construction would impact move up buyers all that much. Only a fairly small subset of the population cares whether their house is new or used, and some don’t like new period. But with roughly a third of the active listings being new construction (and perhaps far more if you consider the houses not yet listed in developments), that really does further limit the choice of move up buyers who don’t want a new development or new house on a crappy lot.

  16. 16

    For those interested, last night the UW Law School had a Townhall meeting on Presidential powers. It’s not aimed at an attorney level of understanding, so it should be interesting to anyone interested in current events. The talking starts at about the 12 minute mark and lasts about an hour and a half.

    https://www.law.uw.edu/news/2017/presidential-power-event/

  17. 17
    Deerhawke says:

    I am going to agree with wilson_greatful_dead_69 that Trump really is, ironically, going to help the market here in Seattle. But it is not just rich liberals. A whole range of people who find the rest of the country incomprehensible and vaguely threatening right now will be looking at Seattle. This is going to accelerate trends that have already been in place for some time. Educated people, tech people, LGBT people, creative people, Moslems, Asians, non-evangelical brand Christians– you name it. Anyone who is a round peg in the small and increasingly intolerant square hole of the Trumpian flyover zone will be heading our way.

  18. 18

    RE: Deerhawke @ 17
    Yes Deerhawk

    The rich liberals blame the Obama mess on Trump….why do we need refugee asylum when we can’t even fix the blood bath in Chicago? Just because?

    I’m a Christian and believe me, the Progressives generally don’t like my religion [most of them are atheists anyway]. They told that to my face BTW. Muslims generally don’t like gays and don’t give women equal rights like Americans….its not an allegation, its in their religion. But they’ll all assimilate when they get here [after we teach them English]….LOL….wishful thinking in my book.

    Let’s see, our 2nd Amendment rights are under attack by our fine Governor….meanwhile ISIS is using axes, knives and diesel trucks against us anyway.

  19. 19
    Kit says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 18

    I’m a progressive – religion is the excuse for good and the excuse for bad. When it comes down to it, people all do chocolatey and great things in whatever portion including the Progressive atheists yelling at you using their Atheism as an excuse to look down on you.

    As for gun rights, most progressives I know are pretty pro 2nd amendment. I am not sure where majorities are, but during the primaries, most progressives backed Sanders and most super left people backed Clinton. The former wasn’t so asinine to allege that gun manufacturers should be held accountable for the stupid things people do with their weapons should they legally sell everything.

    Don’t lump progressives so neatly if you don’t want to be lumped with all of the terribly selfish things done in the name of Christianity.

  20. 20
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 17 – Increasingly intolerant square hole? You meant UW and Berkeley? LOL.

  21. 21
    Ryan says:

    Softwarengineer: your ignorance becomes more and more pronounced with each post. If you have something constructive to add to the conversation on the Seattle real estate market, go ahead. Otherwise, I’m sure Breitbart or the Christian Broadcasting Network or Ann Coulter’s website has a forum where you can connect with other mouth breathers.

  22. 22
    GoHawks says:

    Are homes now trading/operating a bit like stocks? People sell when they go down, not when they go up?

  23. 23

    RE: GoHawks @ 21 – Since you’re dealing with human nature I think it’s always been that way to some extent.

    Look how few people wanted to buy when houses were cheap. And some people who owned homes risked or sought out foreclosure even if that meant still owing tens of thousands of dollars on a second mortgage or significant tax debt. Decisions to buy or sell are not always rational.

    That said, I think several reasons have been identified here as to why someone would not want to sell now. And as a practical matter, at any given point probably well over 90% of homeowners don’t want to sell. That it’s even fewer now isn’t that surprising.

  24. 24
    Brian says:

    RE: GoHawks @ 21

    That’s actually what I’ve been wondering. It seems like with the 2008 run-up and now this run-up that there’s more investors playing the game of real estate. I guess with savings rates and bond yields so historically low, many people see real estate as pretty lucrative yet still safer than the stock market. Plus during the run-ups, they can have rent income like a dividend to back them up.

    If you look at real estate prices historically, they’ve always had a pretty steady rise. Now with the 2008 bubble and this bubble (?), it’s looking more like a stock index with big run-ups and pull backs.

  25. 25
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 22 – I was dying to buy during the crash. But inventory was terrible. Loan qualification was hard too, although that was not as a big an issue compared to inventory.

  26. 26
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Kit @ 19 – Regarding the 2nd amendment and other limits on government power: I find it ironic that it’s a Republican “tyrant” that reminds us why those are important.

    Maybe we’ll get more libs on board now that the tables are turned. I consider socialism a form of tyranny, and “social justice” closer to a nazi crackdown than any movement in my lifetime. But somehow that went unnoticed.

  27. 27
    Cap''n says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 24

    Yeah. I remember when everyone said inventory is terrible 2011-2012. But look where we are now. And people are frothing at the mouth.

  28. 28
    Macro Investor says:

    By Cap”n @ 5:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 3

    This. At this point I would think that most king county SFH listings are people cashing out, leaving the region or significantly down sizing. The move-up seller/buyer is pretty much dead in this market. I don’t think it is so much about waiting to sell until prices go up, but a self fulfilling prophecy in its own way nevertheless.

    To generalize the discussion, the real estate market lacks LIQUIDITY. There is nothing to buy in the neighborhood/condition/specs that you want. Try to buy a 3 bedroom house, with a certain size yard, style, commute, school system, etc… and you come up with 1 choice. There is a huge hidden cost to this because if you sell your house you will have to bid up anything acceptable.

    Essentially, it costs 10% to sell, plus 20% (or more!) to buy, plus moving costs, plus months of running around to open houses.

    Compare this to the stock market, which is hyper liquid. On a moment’s notice you can buy the exact stock you want for a one cent premium above market.

    Real estate is always hard, but since the crash the market has been broken because of liquidity.

  29. 29
    Macro Investor says:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 24:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 22 – I was dying to buy during the crash. But inventory was terrible. Loan qualification was hard too, although that was not as a big an issue compared to inventory.

    Not to toot my horn, but I actually predicted the bottom to within 6 months. And I still didn’t buy because it was all junk in places I didn’t want to live.

    I saw neighborhoods deteriorating, traffic beyond intolerable — and I am a job hopper. I didn’t want to be like our blog host having to commute 40 miles each way and finding out the neighbors are registered s3x offenders.

    Good luck out there… it’s a jungle.

  30. 30
    Cap''n says:

    RE: Macro Investor @ 27

    Don’t worry. You’re not. Calling the bottom correctly is great. Taking zero advantage sounds more like a toot without a horn.

  31. 31
    Erik says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 1
    In engineering, you call that a positive feedback loop. When real estate prices go up, people pay more. When people pay more, prices go up. When prices go up, people pay more. This cycle repeats until it doesn’t.
    I read Animal Instincts by Robert Shiller. It describes in the book that people do this based on fear of higher prices or greed to make more money or whatever the emotional reason is. Makes sense to me. Dale Carnegie says people make decisions based on emotions. Real estate is no exception.

  32. 32

    RE: Macro Investor @ 27RE: Hugh Dominic @ 24 – How were you two looking for properties back then? Unless you were maybe looking in a rather small geographic area (which I never recommend), I find it odd that you couldn’t find decent properties back then. Yes when you actually visited the properties 70-80% of the listings were “not great,” to put it politely, but that just meant you needed to look at ten properties a day to find two or three good ones which are at least worthy of consideration. And back then you could do that practically day in and day out for a not insignificant period of time.

    Contrast today, where even for buyers looking in a wide area there may be only 10 houses to look at and 2 or 3 popping up during the week, with the same 70-80% not being worthy of consideration.

  33. 33
    Kit says:

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 25

    I don’t find it ironic at all given the current trends. Rabid sj warriors may be annoying and have their own faults, but I’d rather deal with their “but you didn’t consider my feelings about being called a dude” than the worst that the right has endured to the same degree – white supremacists who say “genocide isn’t bad in theory”. So it seemed somewhat predictable that this current round had a much deeper line on the right.

    Furthermore, I’m totally for people owning guns, but apparently, wanting to let the CDC study gun-related deaths might make me “left”. So when politicians/the NRA address “gun-hating liberals”, liberals includes people from my stance all to way to the uncommon “lets be like the UK and criminalize non-police gun usage”. So with Trump in power pushing some controversial orders and not talking about guns, of course you’ll hear from the non-fringe left and libertarians and less from the gun lobby screaming about liberals taking away your rights.

  34. 34
    Eastsider says:

    Check this out –

    China’s Army of Global Homebuyers Is Suddenly Short on Cash
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-01-26/world-s-biggest-real-estate-buyers-are-suddenly-short-on-cash

  35. 35
    jon says:

    Apparently China’s foreign currency reserves got down close to the minimum level required by the IMF. The latest restrictions have reversed the outflow. It will be interesting to see how long they keep the restrictions in place. The communist “civil servants” still want to buy their million dollar offshore properties.

    https://betterdwelling.com/city/vancouver/vancouver-real-estate-sees-a-91-decline-in-luxury-foreign-buyers/

  36. 36
    wreckingbull says:

    By Deerhawke @ 17:

    I am going to agree with wilson_greatful_dead_69 that Trump really is, ironically, going to help the market here in Seattle. But it is not just rich liberals. A whole range of people who find the rest of the country incomprehensible and vaguely threatening right now will be looking at Seattle. This is going to accelerate trends that have already been in place for some time. Educated people, tech people, LGBT people, creative people, Moslems, Asians, non-evangelical brand Christians– you name it. Anyone who is a round peg in the small and increasingly intolerant square hole of the Trumpian flyover zone will be heading our way.

    This comment is hilarious. There is a fascinating irony between these imperious lines. Keep it up! We need more material like this.

  37. 37
    N says:

    http://vancitycondoguide.com/chinas-capital-controls-chokehold-luxury-sales/

    China’s Capital Controls Chokehold Luxury Sales – interesting time for our neighbor to the north.

    Recently China implemented new capital controls forbidding citizens from exporting cash to purchase international real estate. (The Chokehold). The timing could not have come at a worse time as sales were already slowing from a 15% foreign buyers tax.

    So what happens when you turn off the tap?

    In January, Richmond detached sales fell 66% year over year, Vancouver West fell 72%, while West Vancouver sales fell 74%. For Vancouver West and West Vancouver it was the worst January on record. It was the second worst January for Richmond sales, trailing only January 2009 (Financial crisis).

    Make no mistake this is not a return to normal from a hot 2016. As seen in the chart above, Vancouver West detached sales fell 61% below the 10 year average, West Vancouver fell 51% below the 10 year average, and Richmond dropped 46%.

  38. 38
    Brendan says:

    “Vancouver, B.C., home sales plunge 40%, extending string of declines”
    “Home prices in the Greater Vancouver region are headed for an 8.5 percent drop this year”

    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/vancouver-bc-home-sales-plunge-40-extending-string-of-declines/

    Interesting to see our market booming while a few hours away Vancouver’s market tanks.

    My guess is if Chinese money dried up, it would mostly effect the eastside. Seattle itself seems to be mostly driven by domestic money. On the other hand, if Trump cracks down on H1B visas, it could effect both sides of the lake by constricting both Amazon and Microsoft’s ability to hire.

  39. 39
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 36

    Well, the comment may be hilarious, but officials in the red states are hardly laughing. There is a brain drain going on that helps places like Seattle at the expense of Dayton and Dubuque.

    https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/22/upshot/the-states-that-college-graduates-are-most-likely-to-leave.html

  40. 40
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: jon @ 35
    Interesting article. Foreign purchases of Vancouver homes over $3MM dropped 91%. But here’s the really interesting part:

    “Foreign buyers didn’t retreat – they’re actually showing steady growth. The 4 most recent months of data actually show month over month increases. The change seems to be the type of home involved in transactions.

    The median price bought by a foreign buyer has declined for the 4 most recent months of data. From July peak, prices declined 28% to $516,650, 3% lower than the first set of data collected. In case you didn’t catch that, buying is showing steady growth in the data set for the number of homes bought. Foreign buyers are just buying at a lower price point.”

    I don’t know if this article is correct. If so, it’s great news if you’re looking to buy at over $3MM. But that money appears to be going to compete against buyers in the $500,000 range. So not so good for those buyers. Would that behavior also be mimicked in the US?

  41. 41

    RE: whatsmyname @ 40 – Probably related to the new tax? They can’t afford as much? Just a guess.

  42. 42
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 41 – Probably capital controls as well. You wouldn’t want leverage or a need to feed it or lose it. SWE (yes) made a good comment alluding to empty real estate as a wasting asset. One would best be served by something that a responsible renter could want and afford. You would want to minimally collect enough to cover good management, maintenance and taxes. As it gets harder to get money out of China, it seems like you would see more emphasis on sustaining what does get out. Also just a guess.

  43. 43
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 7:

    RE: wilson_greatful_dead_69 @ 4
    Rich Liberals in Seattle???

    When did the Democrats become the rich….they were suppose to be for the working guy….LOL

    are you really this stupid? for years I used to skip over your posts…

  44. 44
    pfft says:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 26:

    RE: Kit @ 19 – Regarding the 2nd amendment and other limits on government power: I find it ironic that it’s a Republican “tyrant” that reminds us why those are important.

    Maybe we’ll get more libs on board now that the tables are turned.

    why, there are still plenty of guns out there that you can buy even in the most liberal of states. even the most inane gun laws always come with cries of confiscation from the right and the 2nd amendment industrial complex. they are just trying to scare you into buying guns. it works too!

  45. 45

    RE: pfft @ 44 – Yep, anti-gun politicians are responsible for a lot of gun sales every few years going back to at least the Clinton administration. And due to gun buyback programs and things like Seattle melting down guns, the guns purchased are largely new guns which will last even longer into the future.

    It’s almost become an economic stimulus program like the “Cash for Clunkers” program for cars, which stimulated new car sales and made used cars more expensive, but didn’t stop anyone from owning a car, it just made buying a car more expensive. The difference is at least for cars the politicians intended that result.

  46. 46

    RE: Kit @ 19
    Yes….there’s all opinions

    And I, like Trump, welcome opposing peaceful disagreement…but these recent “Sanctuary State anti-Trump” revolution violence acts are criminal thugs that need prosecution and prison terms. Berkley police arrested only one protester [did this one even get charged???? LOL] after the campus was stormed by a huge open border mob with steel girders slamming into windows, large bonfires at the campus and fireworks exploding [all in the name of preventing Free Speech, with open border controlled police watching and doing nothing]. Sounds like Clinton’s WTO Battle of Seattle in 1999….they used rubber bullets against the populists then….then it turned violent too.

    We must protect violent anarchists against America destroying public property for our security sake??? Throw the mayor, police chief, governor all in jail over this in my book.

  47. 47

    RE: pfft @ 43
    All You Progressives Do is Defamation of Character [that’s against the law too]

    Answer my questions, give me a reasonable retort for possible compromises.,…be civil IOWs.

    I know, you open border folks just call us “basket of deplorables” and we’re all racist if we disagree with the establishment. LOL

    52% of America supports the Trump EO on enemy nation travel “temporary” [my gosh, its only 90 days] ban. Its that simple.

    Now, do everything you can do to prevent the majority of voters from controlling our Republic. Didn’t Benedict Arnold try that one before? You and your Governor Inslee should leave America and live in Japan or China instead, where you’re real motherland is. Make up your own Constitution as you break all our laws in your Sanctuary Nightmare…and call us all “pigheads” for disagreeing with you. LOL

  48. 48
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 39

    People move for economic reasons. This is particularly true for recent college graduates. There is also a migration pattern for seniors to warmer climate and low tax states.

    But there is no proof that people migrate based on their political leaning. Otherwise, many liberal/progressive Seattleites and Hollywood celebrities would have moved to Canada/Mexico since the election. Btw, the same group of people also supported free speech… until they don’t.

  49. 49

    RE: Eastsider @ 48 – I know one person who moved for political reasons, but I would agree that’s very rare. But politics could affect WHERE someone moves once they decide to move, just as you note that tax rates could affect the location. Or another topic discussed here, gun laws. Humidity could also affect the decision (that would be high up on my list). There are lots of things once someone decides to move.

    But returning to local real estate, people tend to be more liberal in their younger years, and so Seattle’s politics could be a draw for many of the recent college graduates you mention. That would be offset by those moving out, but as you note, politics won’t likely be a cause.

  50. 50
    pfft says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 45:

    RE: pfft @ 44 – Yep, anti-gun politicians are responsible for a lot of gun sales every few years going back to at least the Clinton administration. And due to gun buyback programs and things like Seattle melting down guns, the guns purchased are largely new guns which will last even longer into the future.

    It’s almost become an economic stimulus program like the “Cash for Clunkers” program for cars, which stimulated new car sales and made used cars more expensive, but didn’t stop anyone from owning a car, it just made buying a car more expensive. The difference is at least for cars the politicians intended that result.

    it’s paranoia, the NRA(more paranoia) and the gun manufacturers that want to sell you guns not the politicians who just want to save lives. gun safety lives save lives. that’s what all the studies conclude.

  51. 51
    pfft says:

    By softwarengineer @ 47:

    RE: pfft @ 43
    All You Progressives Do is Defamation of Character [that’s against the law too]

    my bad.

  52. 52
    Dave says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 48
    That makes me a funny counter-example.

    In 1946 my Grandfather migrated his family from Kirkland, WA to Santa Monica, CA for economic reasons. His job was replaced by automation so, “follow the work and care for the family,” he would say.

    In 2009 I migrated my family from Santa Monica, CA to Shoreline, WA for economic reasons. My job was replaced by AI (that I built) so, “I’ll create my own work, find semi-functional as opposed to non-functional schools and escape the rental trap,” is something I would say.

  53. 53
    Dave says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 47
    I’m not sure what “Progressive” means anymore. My friends that call themselves progressive are actually disenchanted democrats so there’s that.

    I call myself a law school dropout, (computer science is way more fun), so I do know executive orders must comply with the law. In this case, U.S. Code › Title 8 › Chapter 12 › Subchapter II › Part II › § 1182

    (f) Suspension of entry or imposition of restrictions by President
    Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate.

    That’s all there is to it. The supreme court will weigh in next week and the dust will settle.
    Nice country hmm? Those checks and balances come in handy. ;)

  54. 54
    redmondjp says:

    RE: Dave @ 53 – Thanks for posting that, Dave! The president clearly has the power to do what he did.

    As to Bob Ferguson’s suit, we all know why he really did it – because it threatens the inflow of the immigrant workforce that our Seattle area tech companies so desperately need.

  55. 55
    pfft says:

    By Dave @ 53:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 47
    I’m not sure what “Progressive” means anymore. My friends that call themselves progressive are actually disenchanted democrats so there’s that.

    I call myself a law school dropout, (computer science is way more fun), so I do know executive orders must comply with the law. In this case, U.S. Code › Title 8 › Chapter 12 › Subchapter II › Part II › § 1182

    (f) Suspension of entry or imposition of restrictions by President
    Whenever the President finds that the entry of any aliens or of any class of aliens into the United States would be detrimental to the interests of the United States, he may by proclamation, and for such period as he shall deem necessary, suspend the entry of all aliens or any class of aliens as immigrants or nonimmigrants, or impose on the entry of aliens any restrictions he may deem to be appropriate.

    That’s all there is to it. The supreme court will weigh in next week and the dust will settle.
    Nice country hmm? Those checks and balances come in handy. ;)

    is country of origin a class under the law?

  56. 56
    Macro Investor says:

    RE: Dave @ 53

    Good information there, Dave.

    I’m glad I have the right to own a gun to defend myself against those free speech-loving professional protestors. As a reformed democrat my vote will be for more strict interpretation judges.

    I think before the year is out the money funding this will be traced and some folks will be in a lot of trouble.

  57. 57
    Hugh Dominic says:

    By pfft @ 50:

    gun safety lives save lives. that’s what all the studies conclude.

    Gun safety saves lives. I’ll buy that.

    However, a lack of guns in private hands costs lives. Millions of lives by act of genocide. I think it’s ironic that the people who might think they need a private militia the most right now, as a matter of last resort, are the same ones that have been lobbying against them for decades.

  58. 58
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Dave @ 53 – I hope the Supreme Court will strip away all the hysteria over this and show that this is easily within the law.

    – Refugees are not citizens and are afforded no constitutional protection when outside the country
    – It’s not a Muslim ban. Lots more countries are Muslim-majority, like Indonesia.
    – If religious discrimination on immigration is illegal; maybe the preference granted to Christians in those countries is illegal. Fine, drop that and restore the ban.

    This is the left seeing what it wants to see and blowing it way out of proportion. The hypocrisy is so thick. They’ve convinced themselves they’re right and better than everyone else on the basis of a set of self-serving principles. They stamp out dissent. If anyone needs a “safe space” it’s a Trump supporter in Berkeley.

    This country is so used to socialism that it now thinks that ordinary governance is fascism.

  59. 59

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 58
    Well Said Hugh

    I’m so ashamed to live in this sanctuary city that considers unlawfulness goodness.

    My gosh, Obama signed a similar ban against Iraq….but that’s OK?

    Chuck Schuller [minority Dem senate leader] stated about a year ago a pause in enemy nation migration a good need for national security, now the Progressives contradict their word? That same Seattle federal judge also supports black lives matter…he’s another Bush Rino or Open Border Progressive [same thing].

  60. 60

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 57
    Governor Inslee’s answer to terrorism:

    Ban automatic gun sales….like that will make a bit of difference when ISIS routinely uses axes, knives, diesel trucks, bombs, etc….against us. The 911 terrorist infiltrated America years before their attack….the more that sneak in as innocent starving families….the stronger they base themselves in America.

    Hades the Syrian Refugees in Germany are already swinging axes and plowing through crowds with trucks…Merkel [like Hillary] can kiss her NWO job good-bye…

    Are we that stupid?

  61. 61

    RE: pfft @ 55
    Ask Obama Why?

    He did the same ban against Iraq….ya didn’t care then? LOL

  62. 62

    This site deserves a ticket for making a right turn without a signal.

    Personally I’m surprised that EO became such a big deal. I didn’t care that much when it was implemented and I didn’t care that much when it was struck down. I do wish though our state wasn’t the one that brought it about. Actions have consequences and some people can’t see the forest for the trees.

  63. 63
    Dave says:

    By Hugh Dominic @ 58:

    RE: Dave @ 53 – I hope the Supreme Court will strip away all the hysteria over this and show that this is easily within the law.

    – Refugees are not citizens and are afforded no constitutional protection when outside the country
    – It’s not a Muslim ban. Lots more countries are Muslim-majority, like Indonesia.
    – If religious discrimination on immigration is illegal; maybe the preference granted to Christians in those countries is illegal. Fine, drop that and restore the ban.

    This is the left seeing what it wants to see and blowing it way out of proportion. The hypocrisy is so thick. They’ve convinced themselves they’re right and better than everyone else on the basis of a set of self-serving principles. They stamp out dissent. If anyone needs a “safe space” it’s a Trump supporter in Berkeley.

    This country is so used to socialism that it now thinks that ordinary governance is fascism.

    Thanks for this; “This country is so used to socialism that it now thinks that ordinary governance is fascism.” I could write an entire syllabus with that one.

    Perhaps it’s a bit off topic for this thread but I have a second cousin in Germany who recently looked me up trying to find specific information about the Puget Sound area. She desperately wants to move her family away from Germany as the refugee situation and according to her, “the hypocrisy and absolute intolerance of dissent,” has made raising kids there a bit more than challenging.

    Remember that whatever your political bias is we’re better off than our cousins abroad, relatively speaking.

  64. 64
    Deerhawke says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 62:

    This site deserves a ticket for making a right turn without a signal.

    Very well said Kary. Sorry I think that was my fault. I made a real-estate relevant comment about something that will continue long-running trends in net inmigration that effect demand for Seattle real estate, but this comment opened the door to people who really should be hanging out in their own political echo chambers.

  65. 65
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 64 – Good post. If we want to fight on this site, we should be fighting about real estate.

    Shoreline Mom at 12 says:
    “Also in our neighborhood alone there are eight homes with three generations living in them and two homes with four!”

    I’ve not really seen that in my microcosm, but the first thing that suggests to me is pent up demand. What do the bears think?

  66. 66

    RE: Deerhawke @ 39

    I have to agree with the comments on that linked article that the data is flawed. Expecting people to stay in the State where they went to College-University, and calling them moved and migrating if they don’t stay in the State they chose for their higher education, is a bit ludicrous. Being from Philadelphia, I would never have expected people who came to attend The University of Pennsylvania to stay in Pennsylvania. Same with my family living in Massachusetts. They don’t expect Harvard and Yale graduates to stay in Massachusetts. People come from all over the World to go to those institutions.

    They are choosing a place to go to school, not their new “home State”.

  67. 67
    jon says:

    An excellent idea in HuffPo, of all places. Award H1B visa based on an auction rather than a lottery. That will cause companies to use them to bring in higher quality rather than just to lower cost.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/trump-h-1b_us_5890d86ce4b0522c7d3d84af?

  68. 68

    By Deerhawke @ 64:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 62:

    This site deserves a ticket for making a right turn without a signal.

    Very well said Kary. Sorry I think that was my fault.

    I didn’t mind the topic–my comment was just my noticing how one-sided the responses were. Unusual for this site.

  69. 69

    The official numbers are out. The active listings were at 1,569, about 100 higher than the Estately number, which is always low for some reason. The median is down MOM by about $25k if I recall December correctly. Volume pretty good at over 1,500. All King Cty SFR.

    Numbers from NWMLS sources but not guaranteed.

  70. 70
    jason says:

    Just reading the posts, it seems that most people say the prices will only go up, and are very confident of that. I purchased a Bellevue home about 4 years ago and according to Zillow, and the city, it has nearly doubled in price. Is this not reminiscent of 2007-2008? If the price ever doubles on a house, it is very likely to regress in short order. When most people are holding on to houses, it is really a good time to sell because most investors are just wrong. Sure, the FED has flooded the system with printed money and a sea of liquidity, but that cannot go on forever. The population demographics with the aging baby boomers has not changed and it is just a matter of time until these demographics catch up with us. I am looking to be a seller in the near future and rent for some time to see if the market cools.

    Any thoughts?

  71. 71
    Brendan says:

    Related article in the Seattle times today:
    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-prices-grow-at-slowest-pace-in-three-years/

    So apparently the growth of housing prices has slowed, and actually there have been decreases in a couple of neighborhoods. On the other hand, condo prices are surging.

    That fits in with my hypothesis that we don’t really have a shortage of SFH. Maybe even a surplus. Just saying.

    An alternative (not necessarily exclusive) explanation is that single family homes are already at the limit of affordability, even for highly paid tech workers. As a highly paid tech worker, I’d say I can’t afford most of the single family homes on the market… so probably no one can. Except older retirees with a lot of savings. Presumably not a growth market in Seattle.

  72. 72
    Go Hawks! says:

    RE: jason @ 70 – Jason, appreciate your thoughts and candor. What will you be paying in approximate rent vs. your current monthly mortgage payment?

  73. 73
    jason says:

    RE: Go Hawks! @ 72 – I have already found a rental house, in Kirkland and the rent is about 10% less than the mortgage of my prior house. The house is newer, but the neighborhood is more modest.

  74. 74
    Deerhawke says:

    The Seattle Times summary for January is certainly interesting.

    http://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-home-prices-grow-at-slowest-pace-in-three-years/

    Really, Bellevue west of 405 is in freefall? Queen Anne and Magnolia are suddenly becoming dramatically more reasonable? And real estate in West Seattle can now be had on the cheap?

    Oh, the sky must be falling. Or … maybe … there is another explanation.

    It will take a while for the data to be analyzed more fully, but this month could just be one of those weird months when the data is particularly skewed or lumpy. I have no problem believing that this market is finally seeing a slower and more sustainable growth rate after rocketing along these past few years. But after being in a 12-way shootout for a teardown in Wallingford this past month, I really don’t believe the market is tanking.

    I think it will turn out there are interesting technical reasons these sub-markets are showing severe drops during this period.

    Anybody have a theory?

  75. 75
    Brendan says:

    On the muslim ban:
    If Trump had never referred to it as a muslim ban, it would probably stand up in court. However, because he used that term, and also said he was going to favor Christians in immigration, those statements will be used to establish intent.

    Similarly, if you tell an employee “you have to sleep with me, or I will fire you.” Then later you fire that employee, but claim it’s for a different reason… you will still get sued. You’ve already established intent to break the law.

    Trump can say “it’s not a muslim ban!” now, but it’s basically the same as saying “we’ve always been at war with eastasia!” That kind of gimmick is not going to fly in court.

  76. 76
    jon says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 74 – I don’t see the actual January data in that article. NWMLS still has the results from January on their website.

    I like to see the breakdowns by area, but unfortunately the sales volume at that level of details is not enough to give statistically useful results for just one month of data. It is even worse when they use a pair of months for a YOY calculation.

  77. 77

    RE: Deerhawke @ 74

    I’m seeing a consistent approx. 30% over asking in the last 30 days in one of the areas they say is down, all were multiple offers and no contingencies. The ones coming on after these three that set 2017 pricing will come on at higher start prices.

    Living and working in Seattle and living and working on the Eastside is a little more stable. But for people buying on The Eastside for schools but commuting to Downtown Seattle for work, the areas that work best for that are in a bit of a frenzy. Those with the best of schools, of course.

    A personal note to Deerhawke, still not “sucking air”. LOL!

  78. 78
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Brendan @ 71 – There is certainly precedent in current US law for favoring non-Muslim immigrants from Muslim majority Iran. See the Lautenberg immigration amendment which was extended to cover persecuted non-Muslim religious minorities in Iran.

  79. 79
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 78:

    RE: Brendan @ 71 – There is certainly precedent in current US law for favoring non-Muslim immigrants from Muslim majority Iran. See the Lautenberg immigration amendment which was extended to cover persecuted non-Muslim religious minorities in Iran.

    source please trumpman. this is what he himself said about his amendment.

    I created this program to allow religious minorities to come live safely in the United States and I am proud that it helped hundred of thousands of people.

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2013/06/06/the-lautenberg-amendment/

    it would also be silly, especially since the Iraq War II, to assume there aren’t religious minorities w/in the muslim community.

  80. 80
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 79 – Under a program established by the U.S. State Department and negotiated with the government of Austria, members of certain Iranian non-Muslim religious minority groups are eligible to receive visas to travel to Austria, where they can be safe while the U.S. government processes their applications for refugee resettlement. This arrangement is a lifeline for Iranian religious minorities, since the United States has no embassy in Iran, and cannot interview applicants there.
    Without the Lautenberg Amendment, U.S. refugee processing in Vienna of Iranian Christians, Jews, and Baha’i would be limited or even terminated. Closing the door to Iranian religious minorities now puts people seeking religious freedom in danger and sends the wrong message about the pervasive violations of religious freedom in Iran.
    https://www.hias.org/sites/default/files/lautenberg_amendment_backgrounder.pdf

  81. 81
    Blurtman says:

    RE: pfft @ 79 – Under a program established by the U.S. State Department and negotiated with the government of Austria, members of certain Iranian non-Muslim religious minority groups are eligible to receive visas to travel to Austria, where they can be safe while the U.S. government processes their applications for refugee resettlement. This arrangement is a lifeline for Iranian religious minorities, since the United States has no embassy in Iran, and cannot interview applicants there.

    Without the Lautenberg Amendment, U.S. refugee processing in Vienna of Iranian Christians, Jews, and Baha’i would be limited or even terminated. Closing the door to Iranian religious minorities now puts people seeking religious freedom in danger and sends the wrong message about the pervasive violations of religious freedom in Iran.
    https://www.hias.org/sites/default/files/lautenberg_amendment_backgrounder.pdf

  82. 82
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Brendan @ 71 – Ahh, after a long day I can finally relax with a beer and some Seattle Bubble..

    That fits in with my hypothesis that we don’t really have a shortage of SFH. Maybe even a surplus.

    **pffft** whaaat?

    Please tell me you’re trolling. But don’t tell me that after literally years of picking over lousy listings, losing bidding wars, and reading about historically low inventory that somewhere in this city there is an excess of homes languishing, waiting to be dumped on the first buyer. Don’t tell me that the 9-month wait for building permits and 12-month waits for construction labor have just been a matter of calling the wrong people.

    My friends who moved here to work for Amazon, the building full of renters nextdoor, and I would be delighted if you’d give us some tips as to where to find this excess SFH inventory.

  83. 83
    Brendan says:

    Hugh, my hypothesis is that a large number of baby boomers in single family homes want to downsize, possibly to a smaller home or to a condo, but can’t because the market is too tight at the low end.

    In other words, I think the high SFH prices are not because there is a lot of demand, but simply because of a log jam in the market. So I think condo and townhome construction will do more to alleviate SFH prices than actual SFH production.

    My thinking is just based on demographics. The number of families with young children in Seattle proper is quite low. On the other hand, there are a large number of empty nesters.

    Or maybe I’m completely wrong, but it’s my current pet theory. Note that the east side is a bit different market since there are so many immigrant families there. Different demographics.

  84. 84
    Hugh Dominic says:

    RE: Brendan @ 82 – if they are sitting on a ton of home value, why not sell and move to Mill Creek? Or Flagstaff?

    It’s *possible* that Seattle’s leaders socialist policies could create a tipping point of homeowner flight. The Mayor is actively working to destroy neighborhoods and create a bland city with no character or soul. Add to that a range of taxes where the funds are squandered on pointless social programs like equity analysts and bikeshare systems. I suppose that could create an unexpected exodus of people.

    I more than half believe that the Mayor wants to solve for affordability by making Seattle a worse place to live. If he can’t solve supply, he’ll focus on reducing demand.

    If so, then we are just one recession away from Detroit, let alone a SFH surplus.

  85. 85
    Anonymous Coward says:

    By Brendan @ 82:

    [M]y hypothesis is that a large number of baby boomers in single family homes want… a smaller home… but can’t because the market is too tight…

    If I understand your hypothesis correctly, you think there’s a lot of boomers who want to buy a different house, but can’t because there aren’t any available. And this means there’s less demand for SFHs than most people think?

  86. 86

    By Anonymous Coward @ 85:

    By Brendan @ 82:

    [M]y hypothesis is that a large number of baby boomers in single family homes want… a smaller home… but can’t because the market is too tight…

    If I understand your hypothesis correctly, you think there’s a lot of boomers who want to buy a different house, but can’t because there aren’t any available. And this means there’s less demand for SFHs than most people think?

    Overall I agree with your point, but in fairness there is also the condo market, and it technically is a different market. That said, it is also a very tight market, particularly when you exclude the condo HOAs that are not in great financial shape. And “churn” in houses can create buying opportunities, which I think was more Brenden’s point.

    More to that point though, I don’t typically see the urge to downsize creating that much urge to move. So yes older couples may have an extra bedroom or three, but the most common solution to that problem is to just keep some doors closed. The urge to move will more often be driven by maintenance concerns, stairs, etc. Having too much room is not really something viewed as an urgent problem.

  87. 87
    Erik says:

    RE: jason @ 70
    My only thought is….that’s the worst idea I’ve heard in a while. Inventory is at an all time low. For the bubble to pop, we need supply to exceed demand. Hold onto your real estate. It is very likely to go up in price a lot these next 5 years. My guess is that it doubles again in the next 5 years.

  88. 88

    RE: Erik @ 87 – That would be an annual rate of almost 14.5%. Not likely absent inflation, in which case owning real estate might be very good, particularly if you’re leveraged.

  89. 89
    Brian says:

    By Erik @ 87:

    RE: jason @ 70
    My guess is that it doubles again in the next 5 years.

    Heh. Yeah, right. Maybe in California where property taxes never go up because of prop 13.

  90. 90
    pfft says:

    By Blurtman @ 81:

    RE: pfft @ 79 – Under a program established by the U.S. State Department and negotiated with the government of Austria, members of certain Iranian non-Muslim religious minority groups are eligible to receive visas to travel to Austria, where they can be safe while the U.S. government processes their applications for refugee resettlement. This arrangement is a lifeline for Iranian religious minorities, since the United States has no embassy in Iran, and cannot interview applicants there.

    Without the Lautenberg Amendment, U.S. refugee processing in Vienna of Iranian Christians, Jews, and Baha’i would be limited or even terminated. Closing the door to Iranian religious minorities now puts people seeking religious freedom in danger and sends the wrong message about the pervasive violations of religious freedom in Iran.
    https://www.hias.org/sites/default/files/lautenberg_amendment_backgrounder.pdf

    a law is different than an unconstitutional executive order. also there is no Embassy in Iran so that sounds like an extenuating circumstance.

  91. 91
    ARDELL says:

    RE: Brian @ 89

    While they have prop 13 they also have a counter-balance as the only State that automatically ups the tax value to purchase price immediately upon closing. That may be only in LA County. I don’t remember if they did that up in the Sacramento Area.

  92. 92
    redmondjp says:

    RE: pfft @ 90 – There you go lying again, pfft – there was nothing unconstitutional about it.

    Try talking about housing for a change. Oh wait, Soros isn’t paying you to do that, nevermind!

  93. 93
    jon says:

    Because California Prop 13 charges higher taxes to recent home buyers, people who retire and want to downsize are driven out of state. The outflow of retirees means that their retirement benefits go to other states, and that makes it look like Californians are paying more to the federal government than they get back. Really what is happening is the Californians are simply getting the money back when they live in a different state.

  94. 94

    RE: jon @ 93 – I suspect a lot would leave the state anyway. Someplace not so crowded, but more importantly, cheaper. That would be particularly true if their income was limited but they’d managed to accrue significant equity in their CA house.

  95. 95
    Som says:

    RE: Erik @ 87 – Second that. A rambler with hole in the roof sells for 1.5MM in Cupertino. Miles to go before …

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