June Stats Preview: Listings Inch Up, Sales Still Strong

Let’s take a look at regular monthly “preview” charts. Now that June is in the past let’s take a look at the local housing market stats for the month. Short story: Inventory bumped up slightly, but is still in the gutter. Sales are still very strong.

Here’s the snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

King & Snohomish County Stats Preview

Listings are still very scarce, but at least they’ve bumped up quite a bit from the all-time low. Sales are strong, and hit their highest point since sometime before 2009 in Snohomish County.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

King County Warranty Deeds

Sales in King County increased ten percent between May and June (a year ago they rose 19 percent over the same period), and were down two percent year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Snohomish County Deeds

Deeds in Snohomish increased eleven percent month-over-month (vs. an eight percent increase in the same period last year) and were up six percent from June 2016.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

King County Notices of Trustee Sale

Snohomish County Notices of Trustee Sale

Foreclosure notices in King County were down 34 percent from a year ago and Snohomish County foreclosure notices were down 39 percent from last year. At some point soon we’ll stop seeing big year-over-year declines, as the number of foreclosures levels off at the bottom.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

King County Trustee Deeds

Trustee Deeds were down 55 percent from a year ago.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with previous months’ inventory data from the NWMLS.

King County SFH Active Listings

Snohomish County SFH Active Listings

Inventory rose 22 percent between May and June in King County, but was still down 17 percent from a year earlier.

In Snohomish County it was a similar story: Listings up 21 percent month-over-month but down 11 percent year-over-year.

In both counties the month-over-month increase in listings for June was larger than it was over the same period a year ago.

Note that most of the charts above are based on broad county-wide data that is available through a simple search of King County and Snohomish County public records. If you have additional stats you’d like to see in the preview, drop a line in the comments and I’ll see what I can do.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

10 comments:

  1. 1

    Happy 4TH of July Week Bubbleheads!

    We still have American freedoms per the Constitution….irrespective of Fascist local governments telling folks how to celebrate without fireworks and a Democratic vote. Fascist City Councils run our 4th of July now…

    Come on man, its just one day….why all the worry and fuss over completely unimportant fireworks, whether ya like ’em or not…

  2. 2

    RE: softwarengineer @ 1
    Seattle City Council Fascists Approved a City Income Tax Now

    Read the comments on the MSM article….SWE isn’t the only one horrified, we all are.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/m/7e473b85-82c9-36a3-92be-4bb445320cd9/ss_seattle-income-tax-on-wealthy.html

  3. 3
    SoonToBeSeller says:

    SE, Does your post have anything to do with real estate? You know what they say about opinions.

  4. 4
    justme says:

    @The Tim,

    I have developed an interest in how new listings, pendings, and inventory and other market statistics fluctuate on a daily or even hourly basis, rather than having just the end-of-month data. Do you plan to post any daily or hourly graphs of your estately data, for example? I suppose you must be collecting it each hour and not just disposing of it?

  5. 5
    Erik says:

    RE: justme @ 4
    Click on the number of houses for sale in the inventory section. You can scroll through 10 years of inventory data in king county.

  6. 6
    Blurtman says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 2 – Loony Tunes city council: You didn’t earn that.

  7. 7

    By justme @ 4:

    @The Tim,

    I have developed an interest in how new listings, pendings, and inventory and other market statistics fluctuate on a daily or even hourly basis, rather than having just the end-of-month data. Do you plan to post any daily or hourly graphs of your estately data, for example? I suppose you must be collecting it each hour and not just disposing of it?

    I’m not sure why you think Tim would be collecting data more than 3x a month (at the end of the month personally, when the NWMLS reports and when C-S reports).

    I don’t think getting the additional information would necessarily get you more insight. At best it would probably show you that listings are following more of a pattern of listing on Wed-Fri now than in the past so that the listing can have a greater chance of generating multiple offers.

    I really hope that Tim will be able to add an absorption rate chart when he reports last month’s data. I think that will be informative. The rest of the numbers not so much.

  8. 8
    Brian says:

    Interest rates (and thus mortgage rates) sure are rising back up at a healthy pace… wonder if this is because of the feds increasing talk of unwinding their trillions in bonds.

  9. 9
    greg says:

    RE: Brian @ 8

    what am i missing, rates look about the same over the last 6 months.

    freddie ‘s monthly data jan – jun

    4.1
    4.1
    4.2
    4.0
    4.0
    3.9
    july 6th 3.96…

    freddiemac. /pmms/

    not sure if you can post links here so pulled out the “COM” but the chart on that page shows some pretty chill rates.

  10. 10
    Jasper says:

    RE: greg @ 9 – You can post links on this site, but they might cause your comment to get caught in moderation. The Tim will eventually remove the comment from limbo, one way or the other.

    As the instructions below the comment entry box say, “You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> …”

    If you are not familiar with writing HTML, put the URL in the quotes after href=, put the link text after the right angle bracket, and put </a> after the link text. If you reply to another comment, the system will provide you with an example.

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