Case-Shiller: Seattle home prices edged down just barely in October

Let’s have a look at the latest data from the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. According to October data that was released this week, Seattle-area home prices were:

Down 0.1 percent September to October
Up 12.7 percent year-over-year.
Up 20.0 percent from the July 2007 peak

Over the same period last year prices were up 0.1 percent month-over-month and year-over-year prices were up 10.6 percent.

Seattle still has by far the largest year-over-year price growth, despite falling off just slightly in each of the last three months of data. The only other city with double-digit price growth from a year earlier is Las Vegas at 10.2 percent.

Here’s a Tableau Public interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities. Check and un-check the boxes on the right to modify which cities are showing:

After a four-month reign on top of the heap between February and May this year, Seattle’s rank for month-over-month changes has dropped to near the bottom of the twenty cities—#19 in September and #14 in October.

Case-Shiller HPI: Month-to-Month

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 metro areas.

Seattle’s year-over-year price growth has now been the highest in the nation for over a year, ever since passing Portland in September 2016.

Four cities hit new all-time highs again in October: San Francisco, Denver, Charlotte, and Dallas.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty metro areas through October.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve metro areas whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

Case-Shiller HPI: Decline From Peak

In the 123 months since the price peak in Seattle prices are up 20.0 percent.

Lastly, let’s see how Seattle’s current prices compare to the previous bubble inflation and subsequent burst. Note that this chart does not adjust for inflation.

Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Price Index

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 2017-12-26)


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

81 comments:

  1. 1
    Justme says:

    One of the necessary conditions for my June 2017 prediction has come true: There must be a CS Seattle index decline, and the decline must occur in or start before the Jan 2018 index value (which will be released near end of March 2018, by the way, so please wait until the data is in before making the final judgement.)

    If certain readers do not know the definition of a necessary condition (in the sense of mathematical logic), or the difference between a necessary condition and a sufficient condition, please count to 1000 twice before even thinking about commenting. Then count some more. If the last thread is any indication, there will be a strong motivation and/or propensity to misconstrue and misunderstand.

  2. 2
    Toad37 says:

    RE: Justme @ 1 – can you remind us what the prediction was? Thanks

  3. 3
    Hugh Dominic says:

    Thank you Kshama Sawant! You have finally solved the affordability issue through your wise and learned leadership. If you can import another few thousand homeless people and create a few more taxes, you will finally have created an affordability that rivals that of Detroit.

    Seriously though, the Council’s attempts to interfere with macroeconomics are either pathetic or dangerous. The forces that influence housing prices are much bigger than they can control. Their laws are akin to poking a bear. They do nothing until the bear finally notices you, at which point nothing can stop the bear from eating you and walking away.

  4. 4

    RE: Hugh Dominic @ 3 – Crosscut is running a couple of pieces on Seattle and homelessness.

    http://crosscut.com/

    I think part of the problem is they’re trying to treat symptoms rather than causes.

  5. 5
  6. 6
    Alyx says:

    RE: Justme @ 1 – Seems like a really weak indicator, no?
    I mean looking at the history, the price goes down slightly almost every year around Oct/Nov?

  7. 7
    Rupert D says:

    Since were making predictions I predict the Seattle market will be up 10% year over year as of the most recent CS index. You heard it here first!

  8. 8

    RE: Alyx @ 6 – That’s discussed in the prior thread. The seasonally adjusted C-S number is still going up, so the downward motion isn’t more than typical. Also with inventory so low it does seem unlikely (unless buyers just give up in mass, which isn’t impossible).

  9. 9

    [From tax changes part 1 thread]
    By Kary L. Krismer @ 66:

    This looks like an interesting book.

    Congressman Ken Buck is blowing the whistle on the real-life House of Cards in our nation’s capital. Elected in 2014 as president of one of the largest Republican freshman classes ever to enter Congress, Buck immediately realized why nothing gets done in Congress, and it isn’t because of political gridlock—in fact, Republicans and Democrats work together all too well to fleece taxpayers and plunge America deeper into debt.

    https://www.amazon.com/dp/B01NAYT3HH/ref=docs-os-doi_0

    By ess @ 73:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 66

    Thanks for the heads up on the swamp book. Just ordered it from the library.

    I’ve read all but the last chapter and I’m now sorry I even mentioned this book. It does have some good parts which discuss how both parties keep their people in lock-step, campaign funding issues and things like committee assignments, budgeting, etc. That was reasonably interesting (although hardly well written or compelling). But the longer it goes on the more it gets into right-wing politics, some of which is possibly valid. Overall I would not recommend it.

    ess, have you started it yet? Thoughts?

  10. 10
    whatsmyname says:

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-29/goldman-sachs-takes-one-time-5-billion-hit-from-u-s-tax-bill

    Plus $20B for Citi, $3B for BAC, and we haven’t gone beyond the biggest banks yet. And not energy, not tech, not manufacturing… Repatriation could bring back $5 for each $1 used. Not a Trump fan, but tax policy is looking like a very big counterweight to FRB asset reductions – at least in terms of money that will be floating around this country and looking for assets.

    Good luck getting to sufficient condition in 2018.

  11. 11
    Justme says:

    RE: Alyx @ 6

    This is what my original prediction was:

    >>I’m making the call: The housing price peak in Seattle (as per Case-Shiller) will happen in 2017, unless FRB changes its policies again. (Indeed, prices may already have peaked, we don’t have the data yet.)

    >>There you have it. All the the bubbleheads on this blog have been goading me for a long time to call the peak and the burst. Well, I’m calling the peak to be in 2017, if not an outright burst yet.

    Now, I realize that the expression “the peak” can be subject to some interpretations of various strength. It deserves a strict definition, even if that makes life harder for myself. I will now tighten up the definition of “the peak”: I predict that there will be a peak, within year 2017, and that this peak will not be surpassed until the same month a year later, at the earliest. In other words, not just a local maximum, but a maximum that is not surpassed within 12 months, including the peak month. Again, the precondition is that the Fed (FRB) sticks with the current plan for QE-unwind and Federal Funds interest rate increases (dot plot median interest), and does not implement nor signal a change to these policies in year 2018. If the FRB gets cold feet and changes direction, anything can happen.

    There you have it. Go to town.

  12. 12

    It will be interesting to see how low the inventory number gets to at the end of the month. Being a Sunday and a holiday it’s almost the perfect storm, with few new listings probably being posted, but contracts still being negotiated. Below 1,200 is even possible, although maybe not likely.

    Not sure if a disclaimer is required, but 1,200 is a guess of a possibility based on information from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

  13. 13
    Alyx says:

    RE: Justme @ 10 – Sorry, I am still missing something. You’re predicting that 2017 is peak, until it is surpassed by 2018 peak? Isn’t that just a definition of a bubble? Each year surpassing the previous, until it doesn’t.

    I agree the Fed’s unwinding of QE will have *some* impact, but it’s not clear to me the leap that takes us to calling 2017 as the peak of this bubble.

  14. 14
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 10 – That is a very discrete and thorough definition of “peak”. But does this mean that a 13 month period of prices, say less than 2% below the peak, constitutes a bubble “burst”?

  15. 15
    ESS says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 11:

    It will be interesting to see how low the inventory number gets to at the end of the month. Being a Sunday and a holiday it’s almost the perfect storm, with few new listings probably being posted, but contracts still being negotiated. Below 1,200 is even possible, although maybe not likely.

    Not sure if a disclaimer is required, but 1,200 is a guess of a possibility based on information from NWMLS sources, but not compiled by or guaranteed by the NWMLS.

    Kary

    I have been watching the listings in south Snohomish County – the area of my interest for the past few years. It appears to me that not only are the number of listings for the lower third to half of housing way down compared to prior years, but the number of houses that are not pending is also much lower. Some areas effectively have no inventory that is available to a buyer.

    Interesting to note that San Francisco, one of the most expensive markets in the country had a strong month to month increase in housing prices. So apparently there is room for price increases in a market that has been cited as “overpriced”. So there is the possibility of more room for price growth in this area where housing is still substantially less expensive than SF, especially in the outlying areas.

    It is going to be an interesting spring if inventory does not rebound. Furthermore, it will be interesting to observe any impact the new tax laws have on the market.

  16. 16
    PrettyGood says:

    RE: Justme @ 10 – That’s a very boring prediction and it is pretty much meaningless. Your’re saying that if someone bought a house in 2017 it won’t be worth more than what they paid for it until sometime in 2018. So what….

  17. 17

    RE: ESS @ 14 – Yes, last time I looked there were no active listings in my HOA, which is over 1000 properties and has had a very good flow of listings in the past. And again, even where there are listings they tend to be stale (over two months old) for one bad reason or another.

    BTW, my comment about the Drain the Swamp book got held up in moderation, but you indicated you were going to read it. I didn’t care for it–only a small part was semi-interesting (more on that when the post clears moderation) and then it became too political. Have you read it yet?

  18. 18
    Justme says:

    RE: Alyx @ 12

    Let’s see if I can express this as succinctly as possible: My prediction is that the highest Seattle CS index value in 2017 will not be exceeded/surpassed in the next 11 consecutive monthly index values thereafter. That will make the max value of 2017 a 12-month peak. As always, the previously stated precondition of the FRB not changing course on QE-unwind and Federal Funds rate must apply.

    I’m specifically not predicting what will happen more than 12 months after the 2017 peak, whenever that peak is/was, mostly because I want to have a definite and not-too-distant point in time where my prediction can be evaluated and decisively deemed true or false.

    I am also specifically NOT making any prediction of the sort “until it is surpassed by 2018 peak”, as you phrased it. You may want to make that prediction, but I am not. I am also not making the opposite prediction.

    I’m probably just going to confuse you even more, but….right now, Aug 2017 is a possible candidate for the 2017 peak. Sep and Oct are not, because they are lower than Aug. Nov and Dec are other candidates that may become the 2017 peak. I think Nov/Dec as 2017 as peak are less likely, but I am not excluding the possibility.

  19. 19
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 13

    Glad that my attention to detail is appreciated. The reason I do not make predictions about the exact timeline of the BURST (deflation) of the bubble is that deflation can take time. And I don’t want to get into specifying what percentage drop constitutes a burst today.

  20. 20
    Justme says:

    RE: PrettyGood @ 15

    I think you may be committing the same fallacy as Alyx did. I’m not saying Seattle houses WILL be worth more sometime in 2018. I’m saying the peak value of 2017 will not be surpassed for 12 months.

    I could make grand predictions about CS index values 3 and 5 years from now. But I’m not. I’m setting up a very tight prediction that can be determined to be true or false no later than 12+2 months from today (the +2 months are for the CS reporting time lag).

  21. 21

    SWE’s 2018 Predictions Ahead

    Good blogs all….good mix of opinions…

    I see much the same ahead as last year, retired Baby Boomers [many with younger Milenial Basement dwellers and parking problems as a result] won’t sell [what would they buy?] which is the main reason for the stability in home prices. It certainly isn’t because of high wages with health care at work.

    How long will the retirees’ old money “house of cards” keep Seattle afloat? Cash inheritance from dead Baby Boomers to X-gens [mostly] generally is not invested properly and debt is way too high in Seattle for X-gens [X-gens generally lack the ability to budget and save].

    My guess is it will be drained dry in about 5 years. Then the housing price decreases will begin in the Sanctuary Cities too…

  22. 22
    wreckingbull says:

    By softwarengineer @ 20:

    SWE’s 2018 Predictions Ahead

    Good blogs all….good mix of opinions…

    I see much the same ahead as last year, retired Baby Boomers [many with younger Milenial Basement dwellers and parking problems as a result] won’t sell [what would they buy?

    A home outside of Seattle?

    Anacortes, WA
    Gig Harbor, WA
    Boise, ID
    Spokane, WA
    Sandpoint, ID
    Olympia, WA


    I am seeing quite the influx of Seattle Baby Boomers where I live. They can pay cash for a home and still have money left over for a boat. I first noticed this trend about two years ago. It has been gaining steam ever since.

  23. 23
    ESS says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 16

    BTW, my comment about the Drain the Swamp book got held up in moderation, but you indicated you were going to read it. I didn’t care for it–only a small part was semi-interesting (more on that when the post clears moderation) and then it became too political. Have you read it yet?

    Kary
    – yes – the book arrived immediately at the library, and I read it. It was OK – not too much that was earth shattering or anything most observers didn’t already know. To me the most interesting information was the inner workings of the parties, and that appointments to committees, as well as heading them are related to how much money one raises. Also interesting was the retaliation that was heaped upon wayward members within the party.

  24. 24

    RE: ESS @ 22 – Those are similar to my comments held up in moderation.

  25. 25
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 18:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 13

    Glad that my attention to detail is appreciated. The reason I do not make predictions about the exact timeline of the BURST (deflation) of the bubble is that deflation can take time. And I don’t want to get into specifying what percentage drop constitutes a burst today.

    Still, under your metrics; a 13 month period of prices below but within 2% of the peak, followed by consistently above peak prices, would be classified as a burst bubble. This goes to PrettyGood’s question about meaningfulness.

  26. 26
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 24

    Stop with your baiting and other disingenuous antics. None of what you said has anything to do with my prediction. You are making shit up and trying to conflate it with my prediction and metrics. Just stop. If you want to make up your own predictions, go right ahead, but don’t make up shit and try to conflate it with my prediction.

  27. 27
    Anonymous says:

    RE: Justme @ 10
    Couple other factors that might affect 2018 market are:
    1. AMZN HQ2
    2. Less number of foreign workers because of the proposed policies on H1-B visa to prevent massive visa fraud
    3. Decreased household income for temporary foreign workers’ (on H1-B visa) spouse because of the proposed plan to end work authorization for their dependents (search for H-4 EAD). This was added during previous presidency and I personally know several folks who bought a second house just because of this
    4. China’s crackdown on money transfers – although I don’t actually believe this is going to happen

  28. 28
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 25 – I am not making anything up. I am testing your metrics. I used your definitions. If you could show me where I’m wrong, you would. Your tool is useless.

  29. 29
    Alyx says:

    RE: Justme @ 17 – Looks like the FED is not unwinding the QE at the pace they announced,

    http://bullmarkets.co/how-qe-unwind-will-impact-the-stock-market-bond-market-yield-curve/

  30. 30
    N says:

    @ 21 WreckingBull –
    This certainly shows in the rental markets where rents have continued to rise in second tier markets (ie Spokane sized cities) while leveling off in the top tier cities.

  31. 31
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 27

    Wow, can you get any more dishonest? You are just a troll. You have nothing useful to say, so you resort to making up crap about other people. “Testing my metrics” my big fat behind. Get lost.

  32. 32
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 30 – Yes, your metrics.

    Let me quote you from post number 10 of this thread:

    “This is what my original prediction was:
    >>I’m making the call: The housing price peak in Seattle (as per Case-Shiller) will happen in 2017, unless FRB changes its policies again. (Indeed, prices may already have peaked, we don’t have the data yet.)
    >>There you have it. All the the bubbleheads on this blog have been goading me for a long time to call the peak and the burst. Well, I’m calling the peak to be in 2017, if not an outright burst yet.”

    Also in post 10 you explain your algorithm to determine that you have been correct:
    “I will now tighten up the definition of “the peak”: I predict that there will be a peak, within year 2017, and that this peak will not be surpassed until the same month a year later, at the earliest. In other words, not just a local maximum, but a maximum that is not surpassed within 12 months, including the peak month.”

    Obviously, you have linked peak and burst. Besides, it is the entire context of why anyone here would care about the peak. It took about 2 seconds to envision a scenario that would give you a false positive, so I asked in post 13:
    “But does this mean that a 13 month period of prices, say less than 2% below the peak, constitutes a bubble “burst”?”

    You answered that it is too difficult to predict timing the bust – although you clearly assume it. You say in post 19: “I’m setting up a very tight prediction that can be determined to be true or false no later than 12+2 months from today (the +2 months are for the CS reporting time lag).”

    You say that you can prove a 2017 peak based on data 8 months into 2018.
    You do not provide a requirement for meaningfully lower prices.
    You explicitly recognize potential higher peaks may occur in the very year after your chosen “peak”.

    As my example points out, your metrics allow you to claim a correct prediction for circumstances that do not remotely rise to the level most people would call a bubble. So if that is correct, who cares?

    But that’s now how it was originally presented. Now go back and read your prediction again.

  33. 33
    toad37 says:

    RE: Justme @ 5 – Thanks… we’ll see…

    RE: Anonymous @ 26 – excellent post

  34. 34
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 31

    Here are the top three lies by whatsmyname in the previous posts

    >> I am testing your metrics.

    This thing that you call “testing my metrics” consist of you making up some misrepresentation of what I predicted.

    >> Obviously, you have linked peak and burst.

    I specifically did NOT link peak and burst . This is your biggest lie. QUOTE: “Well, I’m calling the peak to be in 2017, if not an outright burst yet.”

    >>You say that you can prove a 2017 peak based on data 8 months into 2018.

    Lie. I said no such thing. I said that a necessary condition has been satisfied that Aug *can* be the peak of 2017. As I said in my first post, if do not understand what necessary and sufficient conditions are, and how they are different logical concepts, do not comment.

    1-2-3 lies, right there. Here’s what I think: whathisname is not stupid, although maybe not much of a logician, but he is very dishonest and hell-bent on misrepresenting my prediction, being one of the chief bubble-mongers on this site.

    Whatsmyname, I am done with you. No reader should assume that I agree with whatsmyname about anything he writes unless I explicitly say so. In particular, do not assume that I agree with any of his dishonest re-characterizations of anything that I wrote.

  35. 35
    Justme says:

    RE: toad37 @ 32

    You’re welcome. We shall indeed see!

    RE: Anonymous @ 26

    I also agree that the factors you list are significant, and in fact I have invoked factors 1 and 4 in earlier discussions on this blog. Factors 2 and 3 I had not considered before, and indeed I find the H1B angle very interesting.

    I made a conscious decision not to predicate/precondition my grand prediction upon known factors 1 or 4, making my prediction stronger and cleaner and therefore easier to disprove.

  36. 36
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 33:

    This thing that you call “testing my metrics” consist of you making up some misrepresentation of what I predicted.

    So you didn’t write, “I predict that there will be a peak, within year 2017, and that this peak will not be surpassed until the same month a year later, at the earliest. “? And you also didn’t write, “The reason I do not make predictions about the exact timeline of the BURST (deflation) of the bubble is that deflation can take time. And I don’t want to get into specifying what percentage drop constitutes a burst today.”?

    specifically did NOT link peak and burst . This is your biggest lie. QUOTE: “Well, I’m calling the peak to be in 2017, if not an outright burst yet.”

    So you wrote to a bubble blog to call the peak, and only randomly talked about the timing of the burst in the same sentence? And that’s not linkage? And of course, nevermind the quote about why you are not predicting the exact timeline.

    I said no such thing. I said that a necessary condition has been satisfied that Aug *may* be the peak of 2017.

    I’ll partially give you that, but don’t we already know that enough subsequent months have been enough lower that any three month period after August has an extremely strong probability of being lower? Now who’s being disingenuous, Michael?

    Hey did you notice that while we were chatting today, the Estately inventory for King County dropped 17 houses? That’s 1.4%.

  37. 37

    By whatsmyname @ 35:

    I’ll partially give you that, but don’t we already know that enough subsequent months have been enough lower that any three month period after August has an extremely strong probability of being lower?

    That’s the seasonality factor I mentioned in the prior thread. 2015 was unusual in that the C-S unadjusted index kept rising through the end of the year, but more typically it peaks in July or August. Unless I’m missing something, 2011 was the last time the seasonally adjusted C-S index didn’t continue to rise through the end of the year, so what those numbers do for 2017 will be telling. So far the SA numbers are continuing upward.

  38. 38

    RE: wreckingbull @ 21
    Yes Wreckingbull

    I hear a lot of Baby Boomers retired in RVs to save cash too [but complain to me there is no place to permanently store their RV in the Seattle area] ….the Outside Seattle area counties on the Olympic Peninsula attract Boomers too [like Ocean Shores]….access to Medicare is severely limited in these outlying areas so the less populated portions of Washington have a SERIOUS problem with Boomers retiring there too….

    There is always a yang to the yin….

  39. 39

    RE: Anonymous @ 26
    Anonymous

    I assume you’re a lower waged [with no employer provided healthcare too] Milenial, and I empathize with you….I have a Milenial daughter too…

    You’re right too. The Progressives’ NWO is TOAST….its officially dead. The MAJORITY LEGAL VOTER Electoral College in America determines the President’s Agenda now….not foreign controlled courts and foreign controlled Fake News.

    You may be fired now for supporting the NWO….what comes around goes around…you don’t need to be anonymous now….

  40. 40

    Finding Incomes for Seattle Real Estate Bank Loan Approvals for Manufactured Homes

    Is almost impossible now I hear [albeit stick homes have the same problem too I assume from EXCESSIVELY high prices]; only Foremost [sounds like the old milk company…..LOL…..yeah, they’re milking Manufactured Home dwellers now] is the sole national insurance company for standard double wide modular homes.

    I switched to the SINGLE AMERICAN MILK COMPANY [Foremost] too….its like RANSOMWARE from MSFT…ya pay the organized crime their protection money or get no laptop or in this case, home loan insurance. Where is our insurance commissioner on this? Doing nothing about it, like typical Organized Crime Foreign Controlled Progressives.

    Perhaps the hypocrite Progressives [who all drive cars] will get us out of cars in Seattle by limiting car insurance to one company too, then doubling our rates….

    You think I’m exaggerating?

  41. 41
    Anonymous says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 38
    I am perplexed!
    But I have to say, very interesting and creative thought process.

    Unfortunately, I am neither a millenial nor a minimum wage earner (by an astronomical margin).

    Have a prosperous new year and, given your line of work, a great cerebral health.

  42. 42

    RE: Justme @ 34

    Is there an actual $ figure on this past-tense 2017 “peak” that your “grand prediction” says we will not surpass in 2018? I’ve read most of the comments, but to know if we go a dollar over that number, I need the number. I didn’t see it. Maybe I missed it.

    Thanks!

  43. 43
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 35

    Alright, one last time. This is what you said:

    >>But does this mean that a 13 month period of prices, say less than 2% below the peak, constitutes a bubble “burst”?

    I have made no statement as to whether it does or not. I specifically said I am not predicting the timeline of a burst, nor am I defining what constitutes burst. My prediction stands on its own. It has nothing to do with your made-up “test” marked >> above.

    I can’t realistically prevent you from making up some statement that you call a “test”, but when you try to associate and conflate your moronic and disingenuous “test” with my prediction, and claim that “Obviously, you have linked peak and burst.”, that is a flat out lie. My prediction specifically does not link peak and burst. Claiming that it does is a FLAT OUT LIE. JUST STOP LYING.

  44. 44
    Justme says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 41

    My prediction involves the CS Seattle index, which is not denominated in dollars.

  45. 45

    RE: Justme @ 43 – So the number Ardell is looking for is 231.57, right?

  46. 46
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: Justme @ 42 – Mr Logician, the things you are missing here are called context and deduction. Example:

    Justme: ” A is more than B”
    Justme two hours later: “B is more than C:.

    Whatsmyname: “Just me says that A is more than B, and he says B is more than C. Therefore he believes that A is more than C.”

    Justme: “Whatsmyname is lying. I never made that statement. In fact I specifically declined to say that is what I thought.”

    Happy new year.

  47. 47
    David says:

    I predict prices increase after the start of the year especially in the surrounding areas like Burien, South Park, etc. That might cause a slowdown in Seattle increases – but they will still increase.

    However, if Amazon’s 2nd HQ is announced I don’t know what will happen. Name another company in the US with 2 HQs? I think it is a sneak-out of Seattle quack culture. Bezos spends a lot of time in Texas and has probably found normal people more appealing.

  48. 48
    Deerhawke says:

    Re: Justme many posts

    If there were a bet on the table about your prediction, I would take the other side… and raise you.

    It is really about demographics. Pick up a copy of the Puget Sound Business Journal. Lots of tech and medical companies moving here. Lots of them expanding. Lots of law firms, accounting firms, venture capital firms and other overpriced service firms expanding here to provide infrastructure for that growth.

    And yet inventory numbers are not just weak, they are cratering.

    Strong demand. Weak supply. Even with interest rates going up a bit, this tells you that prices are going to increase.

    I would like to see things slow down a bit and have the price increases limited to 5 percent. But that is not what I think is going to happen. I think it will be around 8% this year in King County and 10% in Seattle. It would not surprise me if it were solid double digits in both.

  49. 49
    Deerhawke says:

    Re: Justme many posts

    We don’t have the NWMLS inventory figures yet, but the inventory numbers provided by Estately (above and to the right) give an accurate approximation. ( If I recall correctly, the main difference is that Estately’s numbers include SF homes but not townhomes.)

    January 31, 2016 1597
    January 31, 2017 1171

    And that 26.6% contraction is from what was already a very small base. Inventory has been contracting quite consistently every year since 2011.

    Do you really think a 26.6% drop in inventory is a sign that we are at a peak and possibly ready for a collapse in prices? How would that work?

  50. 50
    ESS says:

    Speaking of predictions, here is what some of the media is thinking

    http://gordcollins.com/real-estate/seattle-real-estate-forecast/

  51. 51

    By Deerhawke @ 48:

    ( If I recall correctly, the main difference is that Estately’s numbers include SF homes but not townhomes.)

    That’s my recollection too, and it works out about right.

  52. 52
    Doug says:

    Uh oh. I’m seeing price increases for some homes I track on Zillow, Realtor, and Redfin. Purely anecdotal, but those three generally keep a good pulse on real-time price direction.

    The only way 2017 was the peak is if we get the ultimate black swan event and soon. Outside of that, congrats to all Seattle-area property owners.

  53. 53
    Doug says:

    And Y-o-Y inventory just keeps getting worse. As of 5am this morning, Y-o-Y inventory decline is now -28%.

  54. 54
    Blurtman says:

    Desperation definition: citing Zillow as an accurate gauge of anything.

    It may not be any one thing that causes a decline in home prices. May be a number of things related to the area and/or related to other areas or something at the macro level.

    But if you do find a better place to live, don’t tell anyone.

    And man, did the Hawks stink it up. Great play calling on that last series. Good move getting rid of Hauschka. Time to clean house starting at the top.

  55. 55
    Doug says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 53 – I’m not suggesting Zillow’s price is accurate, just that the directional movement is worth considering especially when confirmed by the other big 2.

    At least we didn’t have to feel how painful that Walsh miss could have been thanks to Cam Newton sucking.

  56. 56
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Doug @ 54 – I hope they are drug testing Cam. Something not right with that guy. And are politics a refuge for the career impaired? Just look at the Niners now.

  57. 57

    By Doug @ 51:

    The only way 2017 was the peak is if we get the ultimate black swan event and soon.

    I would tend to agree, with the exception of my thought that super low inventory might cause buyers to lose interest in mass. I don’t think we’ve ever seen this sort of inventory situation in our lifetimes (that I recall), so no one really knows what will happen. So far it hasn’t been that bad because there have been a fair amount of listings coming on the market each month, just not enough to keep up. But if that changes . . ..

    I’m not even clear on what Justme is basing his prediction on, beyond merely QE being undone. I don’t see that by itself being sufficient.

  58. 58

    By Doug @ 52:

    And Y-o-Y inventory just keeps getting worse. As of 5am this morning, Y-o-Y inventory decline is now -28%.

    There was a significant drop due to listing expiring 12/31/17. I don’t know when the NWMLS takes it’s reading on the inventory–before or after midnight.

    This could have been worse because the listing number used to be such that agents didn’t want to have a prior year’s listing number. Now it’s not as obvious that a listing is a carryover from a prior year.

  59. 59

    By Blurtman @ 53:

    And man, did the Hawks stink it up.

    Yes, most of the season. I quit expecting anything good from them about halfway through the season.

    How about the Pac-12 in bowl games? Only one win. Now some of it was not unexpected (e.g. Oregon and the Cougars losing a big game), some didn’t have key players for all or part of a game (e.g. Hercules and Falk), and some were playing higher ranked teams so the loss wasn’t completely unexpected. But even with those excuses, the results were dismal. Unfortunately, I think I recorded all of those games and way too many bowl games in general. I have a bit of burnout and am not really looking forward to the BCS games.

  60. 60
    Ess says:

    Housing has not increased in value at all for all of 2018. It must be the bubble bursting.

  61. 61

    The Seattle Area Made National News on Homelessness DEATHS

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/homeless/deaths-rise-amid-growing-homelessness-crisis-in-king-county/

    The evil rich elite in Seattle recently closed the LARGE 2017 Homelessness Camp in Skyway. Forced ’em in the woods in soggy sleeping bags…..good stewards?

  62. 62

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 58
    Yes Kary

    The Huskies should of sent the party girls home earlier before the game….LOL….I’m still proud of them for 2017.

    The Seahawks are TOAST in 2017…..imagine that.

  63. 63
    Justme says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 45

    Deduction my big fat patootie. Rather, completely bogus and blatant lies. I made no claim that is the logical equivalent of your symbolic proposition. You will not doubt continue to make up blatantly false statements. Good riddance.

  64. 64
    Justme says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 44:

    RE: Justme @ 43 – So the number Ardell is looking for is 231.57, right?

    The number cannot be known with certainty until end of Feb 2018, when CS Dec 2017 Seattle index is published.

  65. 65
    Justme says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 48

    Deerhawke is making an argument of the form “I don’t think your prediction will come true because of specific factor X that I think will affect pricing”, with X being certain current inventory conditions.

    The above is a perfectly okay argument to make, and time will tell whether my prediction is correct, although if it fails it may be hard to attribute the failure to any specific factor X or Y or Z.

    Contrast the above with Whatshisname, who claims “because you are predicting P, you are also predicting Q”, where in fact Q is something that is NOT logically implied by P. That is a complete lie and a dishonest claim to make. Whatshisname calls his method “context and deduction”. I call it what is it, namely systematic and willful lying.

  66. 66
    Kmac says:

    RE: Justme @ 64

    I think you should stay silent now that you are have made your prediction.

    If you continue to argue over this or that and other minutia, the extra stuff you have said (or have had drawn out of you) will become the new focus of how you were wrong (even though you may be ultimately proven correct…..).
    This is the way internet arguing works.

    Quit feeding the endless poking and prodding.

  67. 67
    Eastsider says:

    I agree with Kmac.

    Whatshisname is not going to stop trolling. Just ignore him.

  68. 68
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 62:

    I made no claim that is the logical equivalent of your symbolic proposition. .

    So many unanswered questions through this thread. When you predicted that,

    “I’m making the call: The housing price peak in Seattle (as per Case-Shiller) will happen in 2017, unless FRB changes its policies again. (Indeed, prices may already have peaked, we don’t have the data yet.)
    There you have it. All the the bubbleheads on this blog have been goading me for a long time to call the peak and the burst. Well, I’m calling the peak to be in 2017, if not an outright burst yet.”…..

    Weren’t you predicting a secular market peak?
    Did you think that others would interpret this as anything else?
    Is there anything here to suggest you were only predicting a 12 month mini-slowdown?
    Wasn’t your later move to a 12 month peak merely a case of pathetic goal post shifting?

    By the way, can you clarify your meaning just over a year ago in post 328 of December 26, 2016 when you said: “Here’s what I think: People planning to sell had better get their house on the market on soon after Jan 1, and at a competitive price, or the house will languish all year unsold.”?

    Was that a prediction because the statement clearly infers what will happen to the market?
    Or was it not a prediction because you didn’t use the word “prediction”?

    Thanks so much.

  69. 69
    David says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 67 – Brutal takedown.

  70. 70
    S-Crow says:

    It looks like there is discussion about how inventory or lack thereof cannot possibly reduce demand and prices can only go up since inventory is so low. Basic economics of supply and demand, right?

    Tell me, did growing inventory LEAD the market tanking during the bubble bursting? IIRC, substantial media reported that housing was in a shortage and demand was off the charts.

    Does anyone recall that four letter word that is the foundation of the real estate and lending industry?

    Eagerly awaiting your commentary…..

  71. 71

    Off topic but worth noting. The ranking system of GreatSchoolsDOTorg that carries over to both Redfin and Zillow has changed DRAMATICALLY. For instance one notable and preferred TEN rank school in Bellevue is now a SIX! Overnight.

    This may shake up the market for a bit. Some schools have stayed the same, but many in very high priced areas have taken a nose dive.

    Whether you are buying or selling…don’t miss that. I’m still studying the ins and outs of what they have changed and why.

  72. 72
    wreckingbull says:

    Rather than CS numbers, I prefer to use the real estate chearleader testiness index as a way to gauge the market. Not perfect, but seems to predict overvaluation rather well. That index is reaching some new highs in early 2018, not seen since 2007. When Mack McCoy jumps back into the comments, that’s it – I am selling all my RE holdings.

  73. 73

    RE: wreckingbull @ 71

    I’m on record as being bearish, so no guessing needed. :)

  74. 74
    Justme says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 66
    RE: Kmac @ 65

    Thanks Eastsider, a bit of support stating that someone else thinks Whatshisname is just trolling goes a long way. Kmac, also good advice.

  75. 75
    Justme says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 69

    Did you mean FOMO = Fear Of Missing Out?

  76. 76
    Justme says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 71

    That funny, “real estate cheerleader testiness index”. I’m sensing the same thing.

    There is also the closely related “real estate cheerleader dishonesty index”. Most people do not get very dishonest unless they are getting desperate, with exceptions for certain psychopathologies.

  77. 77
    whatsmyname says:

    By Justme @ 75:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 71
    Most people do not get very dishonest unless they are getting desperate, with exceptions for certain psychopathologies.

    I agree. That’s why I can answer simple questions.

    Weren’t you predicting a secular market peak? -Yes you were.
    Did you think that others would interpret this as anything else? -Not if you have an 80+ IQ.
    Is there anything here to suggest you were only predicting a 12 month mini-slowdown? -No.
    Wasn’t your later move to a 12 month peak merely a case of pathetic goal post shifting? -Seemingly*.
    Was that a prediction because the statement clearly infers what will happen to the market? -Yes.
    Or was it not a prediction because you didn’t use the word “prediction”? -No

    *A 13 month period of prices below but within 2% of the peak, followed by consistently above peak prices meets all of your necessary conditions. It is a sufficient condition.
    Is this what you intended?
    If not, why did you not alter your conditions when it was pointed out to you?
    Why did you attack the messenger?

    I’m not desperate. I don’t have to hide. How about you?

  78. 78

    For the record, I am neither bullish or bearish (as always). My main issue with Justme was his claim that no data was refuting his prediction when both the seasonally adjusted C-S data and the NWMLS inventory data would strongly question it. But even if you brought 10 or 20 additional pieces of data into the mix, that still wouldn’t let us know where the market is headed with reasonable certainty.

  79. 79

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 77
    Exactly Kary

    Even without federal tax decreases the stocks surged on optimism of the decrease, due to decreased bureaucracy and policies….??

  80. 80

    Single Home Buyers in Seattle Rule for 2018

    You married/remarried folks get your married lower tax tables [and bracket creep penalty, if there are two workers] and us singles get no one sharing our savings, pensions and house equity. No wonder Seattle home owners stay single….God forbid they have to share their Seattle Home wealth….LOL….albeit they’re lonely?

    What is the definition of lonely anyway? Richer?

  81. 81
    uwp says:

    Predicting “the peak to be in 2017, if not an outright burst,” (Justme’s words) but later clarifying that you won’t rule out prices being higher in 2018 is just about the most useless “prediction” ever.

    My prediction for 2018: Prices will be higher this year, but they might also be lower, in 12 months, plus or minus 2 months.

    But seriously, inventory is scary low. I have no idea what will happen.

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