NWMLS: Closed sales plummet, listings still scarce

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January market stats have been published by the NWMLS. Here’s a quick excerpt from their press release:

Home Buyers Still Competing for Sparse Inventory in Western Washington, Driving Up Prices – Especially for Sought-After Condominiums

“The Seattle area real estate market hasn’t skipped a beat with pent-up demand from buyers is stronger than ever,” remarked broker John Deely in reacting to the latest statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report on January activity shows a slight year-over-year gain in pending sales, a double-digit increase in prices, and continued shortages of inventory.

“The decline in sales last month can’t be blamed on the holidays, weather or football. It’s simply due to the ongoing shortage of housing that continues to plague markets throughout Western Washington,” said OB Jacobi, the president of Windermere Real Estate.

Bummer for home salespeople that they can’t use the “football” excuse they usually throw out in January. Not that there’s really anything in these latest numbers for them to be concerned about.

Now let’s dive into the numbers for January.

CAUTION

NWMLS monthly reports include an undisclosed and varying number of
sales from previous months in their pending and closed sales statistics.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

January 2018 Number MOM YOY Buyers Sellers
Active Listings 1,243 +6.4% -20.8%
Closed Sales 1,259 -39.9% -20.4%
SAAS (?) 1.01 +17.4% +26.1%
Pending Sales 1,747 +19.7% -9.9%
Months of Supply 0.99 +77.0% -0.5%
Median Price* $628,388 -1.0% +19.7%

Inventory is at its lowest January level ever, and new listings were only barely above last year’s record-low level. Despite having nearly the same number of new listings as last year, closed sales and pending sales are both down considerably. Meanwhile, prices are up nearly twenty percent year-over-year.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

King County SFH Closed Sales

Closed sales fell forty percent between December and January. Last year over the same period closed sales were down twenty-seven percent. Year-over-year closed sales were down twenty percent. That’s a pretty big decline. It will be interesting to see if sales pick up in the next few months or keep dropping.

King County SFH Pending Sales

Pending sales were up twenty percent from December to January, and were down ten percent year-over-year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

King County SFH Inventory

Inventory rose six percent from December to January, and was down twenty-one percent from last year. Total on-market listings are the lowest level for any January on record.

Here’s the chart of new listings:

King County SFH New Listings

New listings were up just 0.3 percent from a year ago—a whopping six more homes hit the market this January compared to January 2017.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. “Demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade (unlike pending sales from NWMLS).

King County Supply vs Demand % Change YOY

The drop in closed sales is actually pretty sudden and severe in this chart. The last time the year-over-year change in closed sales was anywhere near this low was late 2010.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

King County SFH YOY Price Change

Year-over-year price changes shot up to their highest level since March 2016, nearly hitting twenty percent again.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994 (not adjusted for inflation).

King County SFH Prices

Down slightly from December and currently about $30k below the all-time high hit last July.

January 2018: $628,388
July 2007: $481,000 (previous cycle high)

Here’s the article from the Seattle Times: King County housing market kicks off 2018 even hotter than before, as Seattle breaks price record


About The Tim

Tim Ellis is the founder of Seattle Bubble. His background in engineering and computer / internet technology, a fondness of data-based analysis of problems, and an addiction to spreadsheets all influence his perspective on the Seattle-area real estate market.

323 comments:

  1. 1
    Brady says:

    I would love to see where affordability is at.

  2. 2
    N says:

    It is quite interesting that the SAAS is up 26% YOY. Looking back at September it was down YOY. Adding up the arrows for buyers and sellers that Tim provides they total 3 favorable for Buyers and 3 favorable for Sellers.

    Sounds quite different than the recent past where it tilted nearly completely to the seller. Curious to what others think of this.

  3. 3

    The inventory graph is so compressed due to the high inventory periods prior to the peak that it really doesn’t reflect the situation well. That doesn’t look like a 20% YOY drop when you look at the graph.

  4. 4
    greg says:

    By N @ 2:

    It is quite interesting that the SAAS is up 26% YOY. Looking back at September it was down YOY. Adding up the arrows for buyers and sellers that Tim provides they total 3 favorable for Buyers and 3 favorable for Sellers.

    Sound quite different than the recent past where it tilted nearly completely to the seller. Curious to what others think of this.

    Pretty clear that RE is currently speculative , well at least to me.

    The gains have been stunning, RE and equites have been simply delightful. But we need a period of consolidation . Trees don’t grow to the sky….

  5. 5
    LessonIsNeverTry says:

    By Brady @ 1:

    I would love to see where affordability is at.

    Affordability has declined because of continued price increases and the recent jump in mortgage rates. If a buyer is looking at a 850k+ home the new tax laws also start to pick away at affordability compared to last year (at least from a Net Worth perspective).

    I updated my calculators to account for the new tax laws and mortgage rates. The current environment for an upper middle class financial situation, compared to six months ago, looks like this:

    Rent to purchase price for equivalent 10 year net worth
    7/1/2017 – Monthly rent $4000 ~= Purchase price of $1,000,000
    2/1/2018 – Monthly rent $4000 ~= Purchase price of $850,000

    The incredibly low supply to demand (and perhaps a bit of speculative spirits) is masking the fact that affordability at the upper end took a heavy wet fish slap to the face. However, unless supply increases there remains enough well off buyers at these prices to set the median easily. I would expect to see the purchase price rate fall to the 3-5% annual rate range this year, however. This should also put upward pressure on single family home rental prices, unless the upcoming apartment glut cuts into this.

    Lastly, I don’t see how supply increases until the UR6 starts to rise. No sign of that yet.

  6. 6
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: greg @ 4

    There is a lot of money sloshing around the world and it is looking for a safe return. That is driving the market for equities and it is driving this local Seattle real estate market.

    I wouldn’t hazard a guess on where the stock market will be 6 months or a year from now. It has seemed overhyped to me for quite a while. I for one am glad we let some of the air out this past week.

    But growth in the Seattle real estate market has more of what I consider to be a real economic basis. It is demand driven growth (from multiple sources here and abroad) and short and long-term supply constraints. Those supply constraints are now starting to impact the number and volume of sales in the region.

    Trees may not grow to the sky, but once Doug firs and Northwest cedars get their roots established, they grow pretty fast and very high.

    A few months ago, I said I thought we might see somewhat more moderate growth in the range of 8% although it wouldn’t surprise me if we saw low double digits again.

    Now I think what we will see in 2018 is a repeat of 2017 from a higher base. By summer, look for KC median to be well over $700K and the Seattle median to be well over $800K.

  7. 7
    Doug says:

    So happy to see the WSJ print this. The Fed completely overstepped and everyone should be upset about it regardless how you feel about Wells.

    https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/wells-fargos-political-penalty-1517961371?__twitter_impression=true

  8. 8
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Doug @ 7

    The Wall St Journal has always been two newspapers in one. Real trained journalists with real brains run most of the paper. But the editorial page has always been run by right wing ideologues, most of them straight out of the Dartmouth Review. There is virtually no communication between the two groups. They do not even eat lunch together or socialize, because they come from two different cultures. The journalists deal with facts, the ideologues deal in bloviating rhetoric. Anybody who reads the paper for any length of time knows to pass over the thoroughly slanted right-wing editorials, although the op-eds sometimes are worth a look.

    The banks and bankers led this country into the Great Recession, but they did not pay any kind of price. The rest of us did– and home builders in particular. Please don’t ask a builder like me to summon even a shred of sympathy for a bank being over-regulated, much less such a willfully stupid and public offender like Wells Fargo.

    If Janet Yellen and the Fed really had guts, they would conclude that the bank’s behavior shows that it poses a systemic financial risk to the economy. They would then fine and dismiss the board and break Wells Fargo into half a dozen smaller banks, shareholder interests be damned.

    That might actually send the kind of message we need sent to the banking sector in this country.

  9. 9

    I Hear New Home Loan Acceptance Where I Live is Getting Impossible

    We’re turning into a cash bag housing market whether we like it or not?

    My HOA can’t even use dues receipts as collateral for a maintenance loan anymore….they even tried putting liens against the home owners, their DIMWIT legal support failed to tell them that was illegal too…..LOL

  10. 10
    Erik says:

    RE: Doug @ 7
    I’d like to read the article, but the wsj wants to charge me money to see it. Any free version for us poor folk?

  11. 11
    N says:

    Realtors will soon be free of 10-year-old Justice Department decree — so what happens to housing now?

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/realtors-will-soon-be-free-of-10-year-old-justice-department-decree-so-what-happens-to-housing-now-2018-02-06

  12. 12

    RE: N @ 11 – I’m not sure it will have any impact. I don’t believe the NWMLS was part of that, but they tended to comply with the terms so as to not become a future target. I suspect that same thinking will carry forward.

  13. 13

    By Deerhawke @ 8:

    RE: Doug @ 7

    The Wall St Journal has always been two newspapers in one. Real trained journalists with real brains run most of the paper.

    I don’t know about “always.” This goes back some 20 years, but they once ran a “story” on Starbucks written by someone with a large undisclosed short interest that couldn’t even get basic facts right that you would get from an annual report, like number of stores open, etc. So other than a biased author and no fact checking, it was a great article! /sarc

  14. 14
    David says:

    It feels like 2007 all over again.

  15. 15
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: Erik @ 10 – There is a service which provides full-text indexing for the Internets, commonly known as the Googles. “Poor folk” are allowed to use it too.

    http://luxlibertas.com/wells-fargos-political-penalty/

  16. 16

    By wreckingbull @ 15:

    RE: Erik @ 10 – There is a service which provides full-text indexing for the Internets, commonly known as the Googles. “Poor folk” are allowed to use it too.

    http://luxlibertas.com/wells-fargos-political-penalty/

    Wreckingbull, you obviously don’t know how the Internet works! People ask questions so that other people can look up the answers! ;-) :-D

  17. 17
    greg says:

    RE: Erik @ 10

    private on edge and incognito mode on chrome will let you view most paid sites that allow a couple of free views a month.
    go incognito, (upper right corner the 3 dots, click and you see the option in the drop down)

  18. 18
    Doug says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 8 – Wells had nothing to do with the recession and in fact were among the shortlist of banks who did not need any sort of government assistance due to their strong balance sheet and conservative culture.

    These consumer abuses to millions of small depositors were absolutely unacceptable, but they paid the price for it not only financially, but with a knock to their brand reputation. But these actions were in no way systemic nor did they pose any sort of risk to the economy as a whole.

    So for the Fed to drop the hammer on them now 17 months later, for nothing related to their own mandate by the way, makes no sense and clearly was nothing more than pandering to Elizabeth Warren. America has long wanted someone’s head for the financial crisis and Wells, as the best capitalized bank in the world, was the perfect scapegoat as Yellen knew their balance sheet could handle this political slap in the face.

    The irony, however, is that the ultimate winners of the sanctions will be Sloan and shareholders. The Fed has just provided a massive discount to the share price at which Wells will be buying back 350mm shares this year per their disclosure last month. In addition, Wells will now have to figure out what to do with $22B of net income this year which I can only guess will go straight to shareholders as they can’t put it on the balance sheet.

  19. 19
    sleepless says:

    If we have such a severe housing inventory shortage, what is preventing the builders from building more homes? I don’t believe in “land shortage”, since land “shortage” wasn’t an issue in 2007 when the construction was at it’s highest. Also, i don’t believe in labor shortage either, same argument, no issues with labor in 2007? Same argument for construction materials. The oil is cheaper now than it was 10 years ago. Less housing is being built, how is construction materials are more expensive now than then? What is it then? The government regulations that prohibit from building new units or more dense construction?

  20. 20
    sleepless says:

    RE: sleepless @ 19 – And just before everyone jumps on “desirable area” wagon, like people move here, more high paying jobs, Amazon, MSFT, etc. let me remind you that the housing shortage is country wide, not just in Seattle Metro. All major areas experience housing shortage, even heroin and meth addict infested Spokane…

  21. 21
    sleepless says:

    Just to double down on the “shortage of skilled workers”. The employment participation rate is at multi-decade low. If the skilled trade is in such demand, why we don’t see the inflow of new skilled trade workers from the un(under)employed / or not “employment participants” i should say. The job should pay pretty well i guess if it is in demand…

  22. 22
    ess says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 13:

    By Deerhawke @ 8:

    RE: Doug @ 7

    The Wall St Journal has always been two newspapers in one. Real trained journalists with real brains run most of the paper.

    I don’t know about “always.” This goes back some 20 years, but they once ran a “story” on Starbucks written by someone with a large undisclosed short interest that couldn’t even get basic facts right that you would get from an annual report, like number of stores open, etc. So other than a biased author and no fact checking, it was a great article! /sarc

    Well “journalism” cuts all ways these days. I was in Paris for a vacation last month, and our hotel had copies of the international NY Times edition for their guests . I thought I was reading the newsletter of the Democratic National Committee.

  23. 23
    greg says:

    RE: ess @ 22

    international versions are for a wider audience than the US… US is a lot more right wing than you might think ess, so an international version must shift further left or risk being seen as fascist by many english speaking people… In fact Murdoch is struggling in his take over bid of SKY precisely because of the way has manipulated and damaged the US with his media empire.
    They are saying “too much control” but what they say off the record is “murdoch is a right wing thug who wants to turn the UK into the US”
    Murdoch has badly damaged the WSJ with his endless desire to shift politics to the right.

  24. 24

    By sleepless @ 19:

    If we have such a severe housing inventory shortage, what is preventing the builders from building more homes?. . . What is it then? The government regulations that prohibit from building new units or more dense construction?

    Seems like you answered your own question, but I would use the phrase “delays and makes more expensive the” instead of “prohibit from.”

  25. 25

    By Doug @ 18:

    These consumer abuses to millions of small depositors were absolutely unacceptable, but they paid the price for it not only financially, but with a knock to their brand reputation. But these actions were in no way systemic nor did they pose any sort of risk to the economy as a whole.

    I would add that in many cases the damages were nominal or even non-existant.

    What amazes me is how employers will never learn that employees will game almost any system if the system affects their compensation. This is an example, as is the situation where the teachers were changing their students’ standardized test score answers, and there are others. Employers never seem to learn!

  26. 26
    N says:

    Our financial system was on the verge of collapse, nearly no bank executives were charged criminally and we taught the banks that when they take stupid risks and fail we will bail them out with hardly any consequences. People should be mad at such a situation.

  27. 27
    Doug says:

    RE: N @ 26 – Bear and Lehman might not agree with you.

  28. 28
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Doug @ 18

    Parents know that they are not going to catch their kid every time they do something wrong. That is why good parents know it is important to be strict and punish them rather than accept a bunch of excuses when they actually are caught.

    I don’t know what your interest is in Wells Fargo. Do you work there? Hold their stock? What gives?

    My feeling is that the Fed has meted out pretty light punishment here and should have been much stricter. First the Fed needs to be get their attention– Wells just keeps screwing up over and over again. Second, the Fed needs to make an example of them, so that other banks get the message too.

    We had plenty of people calling for government to adopt a much lighter regulatory stance with banks from the 90’s onward. It was supposed to make them nimble and more competitive globally. Instead they turned banking into a casino. We all saw how that turned out during 2008.

  29. 29
    uwp says:

    By sleepless @ 19:

    If we have such a severe housing inventory shortage, what is preventing the builders from building more homes? I don’t believe in “land shortage”, since land “shortage” wasn’t an issue in 2007 when the construction was at it’s highest. Also, i don’t believe in labor shortage either, same argument, no issues with labor in 2007? Same argument for construction materials. The oil is cheaper now than it was 10 years ago. Less housing is being built, how is construction materials are more expensive now than then? What is it then? The government regulations that prohibit from building new units or more dense construction?

    It’s a combination of factors: strong economy, pent up demand, decent population growth. And you can’t snap your fingers build a house. There was a multi-year stretch post 2008 where the nation as a whole just didn’t build many houses: Chart

  30. 30
    Doug says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 28 – Yes, sorry, I should have disclosed that my interest in this is based on direct holdings of WFC among other banks. I’ve long held the banks as a hedge against rising rates. And I just generally hate government intervention.

  31. 31
    Richie Valez says:

    By sleepless @ 19:

    If we have such a severe housing inventory shortage, what is preventing the builders from building more homes? I don’t believe in “land shortage”, since land “shortage” wasn’t an issue in 2007 when the construction was at it’s highest. Also, i don’t believe in labor shortage either, same argument, no issues with labor in 2007? Same argument for construction materials. The oil is cheaper now than it was 10 years ago. Less housing is being built, how is construction materials are more expensive now than then? What is it then? The government regulations that prohibit from building new units or more dense construction?

    In 2008 a lot of the inventory added was sprawl development projects in the suburbs, or at least not directly in metro hubs. I’m talking all over America. I’m guessing that was also happening in Seattle?

    In 2018 what builder would invest in sprawl suburban projects instead of building downtown inventory to capture all of Amazon’s imported housing demand? It’s not just Amazon. Changing tastes generally are moving away from suburb style living, especially among environmentalist/leftish types who are drawn to Seattle. That’s exactly what’s happening. The record cranes over Seattle are all building in downtown Seattle. With real estate inflating so much and rates so low, why bother selling? Rent out high rise units at a premium, watch the appreciation mount, and sell later when rents start to rise or demand for rentals dries up.

    Looks like that may be happening now. Rents are going down and rates are going up. Stocks and bonds are tanking. Volatility on risk assets just rocketed. As soon as a small fraction of owners start selling, it creates a domino effect, reversing the previous feedback loop that was keeping inventory low.

  32. 32
    Erik says:

    RE: greg @ 17
    Thanks Greg, that’s a good tip. All the newspapers are denying me since I reached my max number of articles. I’ll do incognito.

  33. 33
    Erik says:

    RE: N @ 26
    Come on man, that is very unamerican of you. Those bankers simply misinterpreted the rules.

  34. 34
    Erik says:

    Based on the wonderful data the Tim has supplied once again, I’d say we are looking at another 2017. HQ2 was bad news, but we already have national and international attention. Like I said before, we need to put more constraints on builders if we want to keep supply low and prices high. I’m still calling a bust in 2024.

  35. 35
    S-Crow says:

    By Doug @ 18:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 8 – But these actions were in no way systemic nor did they pose any sort of risk to the economy as a whole.

    So for the Fed to drop the hammer on them now 17 months later, for nothing related to their own mandate by the way, makes no sense and clearly was nothing more than pandering to Elizabeth Warren. America has long wanted someone’s head for the financial crisis and Wells, as the best capitalized bank in the world, was the perfect scapegoat as Yellen knew their balance sheet could handle this political slap in the face.

    I agree 100%.

    Wells gets fines, board changes etc. …..Angelo Mozillo of Countrywide gets fined but not Jail. BofA “absorbs” Countrywide and BofA gets fined for what many says are solely Countrywide’s errors. Chase is “gifted” Washington Mutual.

    It continues to be one of the most incredible series of events that I’ve ever seen. I don’t think I’ve ever worked in the real estate/lending space and have experienced a “normal or stable” market. It’s just been Boom, Bust, Boom, Bust, Boom….tbd.

    If people want a stable market then make the large banks and regional banks/credit unions porfolio their own loans. That wouldn’t be good for real estate prices though. Instead risk is shifted to the US Taxpayer by offloading loans to the GSE’s who have expanded guidelines to 50% DTI ! and work to remove other barriers/regulations —-and people argue that guidelines are tough, lol. (BTW all these guidelines are based on gross income).

    “We feel very comfortable” with the increased DTI ceiling, Steve Holden, Fannie’s vice president of single family analytics”

    Crazy.

  36. 36

    By Erik @ 32:

    RE: greg @ 17
    Thanks Greg, that’s a good tip. All the newspapers are denying me since I reached my max number of articles. I’ll do incognito.

    The other thing you can try is using different browsers, e.g., Chrome, IE, Edge and Firefox.

  37. 37
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Doug @ 30

    Look, if you play in the stock market, sometimes things go up and you get to feel like you were smart. But sometimes things go down and you have to take your licks. Take them like a man. If you want to be feel pissed off, fine, but you have chosen the wrong target. Instead of being pissed at Yellen and Warren, you should be pissed off first at that guy in the mirror. Then if you still have some spite left over, go to a Wells shareholder meeting and throw rocks at the CEO and the directors. You might get locked up, but it would be a useful lesson for them in shareholder accountability. I would love to see it.

    Throughout the 90’s banks spent a boatload of money to lobby for deregulation and the end of Glass-Steagall. With K-Street’s help, they got just what they wanted. So when the idiocy ran its course and the banksters blew up the economy, real people got hurt. Builders were driven out of business and lost everything. Yes, literally everything. Borrowers lost their homes and often everything else with it. But somehow bankers got off scott-free. Sure the people at Bear Stearns and Lehman and WaMu lost some stock options and a few week’s income. But all of those people got recycled back into the economy really quickly. In fact, many of them ended up at the FDIC or TARP or continued working for the defunct banks or bankruptcy firms or the creditors’ committees. After all, they knew what kind of mess they had created, so they knew best how to unwind it. Or they went to work for the investment banks that worked out a sweet deal with their buddies at TARP to pick up hundreds of houses at pennies on the dollar.
    While builders were losing their savings, their houses, their kids’ college education funds, their marriages and their families, the bankers took a slight pay cut. What a pity….

    Pardon me if I don’t feel your pain or those of your banker friends. After what they did to this country and to builder friends of mine, some bankers deserved flaming hot tar and feathers. What they got, lucky for them, was not justice but extreme undeserved mercy.

    Now, to change the subject slightly, Sleepless you were wondering why “If we have such a severe housing inventory shortage, what is preventing the builders from building more homes? ” , there are many, many reasons, but part of it lies in the story above. A lot of the really good builders who used to be my friends and competitors were pile-driven into bankruptcy between 2008 and 2012. And the rest of us took on a very different view of risk after seeing how they were treated.

  38. 38
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 36
    I’ll be reading all the free articles I want from here on out. Seattle Times and Wall Street Journal here I come! Thanks for the tip.

  39. 39
    Erik says:

    Fred Foldvary said, “the next major bust, 18 years after the 1990 downturn, will be around 2008, if there is no major interruption such as a global war.”

    I took the words from the great professor Fred Foldvary and edited them for present time, “the next major bust, 18 years after the 2008 downturn, will be around 2026 if there is no major interruption such as a global war.”

    If there is actually anyone out there that reads my comments and believes them, I gave us a 2 year cushion since selling early is better than selling late. All the indicators seem to be aligning. If we sell early and you bought as much seattle real estate as you could, you’ll still probably double what you borrowed.

    2025 you can find me sucking down margaritas in Medellin with the real estate money I pulled out of Seattle. $1600 can last you a month as an expat in Medellin. Medellin or Barcelona, I haven’t decided yet.

  40. 40
    Green-Horn says:

    RE: Erik @ 10

    Check this out.

    https://chrome.google.com/webstore/detail/anti-paywall/likpiciaabojkjnaigjfhgdfokcahooc?hl=en

    Also useful for NYT, BezosBlog (aka Washington Post), FT as well as WSJ.

  41. 41
    Scotsman says:

    RE: ess @ 22
    ‘ our hotel had copies of the international NY Times edition for their guests . I thought I was reading the newsletter of the Democratic National Committee.”

    You were.

  42. 42

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 13
    The Wall Street Journal

    Has always been an open border progressive news source in general. But even the rich elite stock establishment stock hacks are softening to Populism and Trump. Ya can’t fight huge yearly stock gain momentum….worldwide too. I read that this week BTW in a business journal.

    Now the shutdown over DACA human smuggling wants to shut their[and your retirement] stock growth parade down….good luck open border progressives, you’re fighting the rich elite now.

  43. 43
    Doug says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 37 – I think we’re talking about 2 different things. I share your frustration about the banking sector blowing up the economy, but don’t throw the baby out with the bathwater.

    The reason I like owning Wells is because of their conservative nature and because they would never get caught holding exotic complicated derivatives on their balance sheet. They are the exact opposite of the fools at Lehman, GS, Deutsche, Morgan, etc.

    If they had a bad quarter and earnings suffered because of that, then yes, I would take it like a man. But they didn’t. This had nothing to do with their earnings or any current scandal. This was 100% political posturing and completely unfounded intervention. And that’s why I’m irritated and you should be to if you like living in a free market.

    I do believe long term shareholders are the winners here so I don’t really care about the ~10% short term drop. The idea that the Fed can now do whatever they want whenever they want should have everyone concerned. This isn’t China.

  44. 44

    RE: Scotsman @ 40
    Evidently Many of the NYT’s Stories Had Source Checks

    I’m rolling on the ground laughing now….

  45. 45

    RE: Doug @ 42 – Unless I’m mistaken, Wells was sued for steering people in certain neighborhoods to high interest loans, regardless of their qualifications, and settled the suit. Not exactly what you’re talking about, but still a risky behavior for a bank.

    It wouldn’t surprise me that the situation was yet another one where it resulted from employees gaming their compensation system.

  46. 46
    Doug says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 44 – Yes, that is correct. I was just saying they didn’t blow themselves up or anyone else by betting on housing through CDS contracts or derivatives thereof. Make no mistake, they have had their share of abuses, but they have paid a lot of money to make consumers whole along with additional punitive fees.

    Again, the whole point here is around unfounded central intervention. We have regulatory agencies for this sort of thing. The Fed is not one of them.

  47. 47
    Eastsider says:

    By uwp @ 9:

    And the 10 year dropped from a high of 2.88% to 2.73% right now. Will we get minute by minute updates on that from Eastsider as well?

    Someday (maybe tomorrow!) Amazon will fall.
    Someday Seattle house prices will fall.
    Someday mortgage rates will go up to 5% (6%, 7%!).

    And I’m sure they will be here to say I told you so no matter when it happens.

    You are simply a troll. 10yr Treasury is currently at 2.85% even as the DOW is off another 400pt.

    According to MND, 30yr mortgage is now at 4.45%.

  48. 48
    Doug says:

    I’ve said my piece — back to Seattle housing.

  49. 49
    Deerhawke says:

    RE: Scotsman @ 40

    Ess and Scotsman, you may not realize it, but you have cause and effect mixed up. If you are reporting the facts and those facts are becoming policy choices, then those who are not really paying attention may see the policy choices dictating the facts, not vice versa.

    My sons are fond of saying that facts have a well-known liberal bias. That was not always true, but given how bizarre the Republican Party and its leadership has become, it certainly is true now. The party of Trump is not the party of Lincoln and Eisenhower I used to admire.

    To put a finer point on it, do you really think that the Wall Fox News would have published the Pentagon Papers? Do you really think that they would have broken the Watergate story and made Nixon resign? Do you think they will do an objective job of reporting on the coming indictment of members of the Trump family?

    So then, go back and review what the founders wrote about the importance of a free press in a democracy and think hard about what this country would be like without it.

  50. 50
    N says:

    Redfin migration report finds a first for Seattle: More users searching for a way out of city than in

    https://www.geekwire.com/2018/redfin-migration-report-finds-first-seattle-users-searching-way-city/

  51. 51

    RE: N @ 49 – But the number 1 destination was L.A., so to sound like a DirecTV commercial, maybe they’re looking for higher prices, more polution, and/or more homeless people living on the streets. ;-)

    Seriously, that does seem odd. Is tech expanding in L.A.? There are plenty of other places with less rain.

  52. 52
    Doug says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 50 – For what it’s worth I’m constantly searching on Redfin in areas outside of Seattle just to see relative prices/values. I have no plans of selling anytime soon.

  53. 53
    Blake says:

    By Scotsman @ 40:

    RE: ess @ 22
    ‘ our hotel had copies of the international NY Times edition for their guests . I thought I was reading the newsletter of the Democratic National Committee.”

    You were.

    You are correct, the NYTimes and DNC have the same interests: proWallSt, proCorporation, antiUnion, proWar, proIsrael, proCIA/DeepState, proMilitaryIndustrialComplex.
    Do you understand this??

    Yet I know you are still gonna call the DNC “leftwing” and the NYTimes a”leftwing” paper… because that’s what Faux News and Rush Limbaugh says.
    Broken record… you are gullible idiots. Try to get a grip on reality.

    They are the Establishment which is the military/corporate elites! They are not socialists…

  54. 54
    Matt P says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 50
    The article speculated that they are looking for sun.

  55. 55
    sleepless says:

    Has folks received their new King County tax assessment yet? I heard some got increases as big as 25% this year. I wonder if that would chill the overheated market a little bit. Also, the stock market seems a bit shaky lately, same goes to the bond prices and 10y T-Bills that are the benchmarks for the interest rates. I would also like to hear from folks that took a second mortgage on their house to buy Bitcoins, how is that working out for them? Got bitcoins at $20K?

  56. 56

    RE: Eastsider @ 46

    Anyone talking about what is going to happen in the housing market instead of watching the stock market right now is just moving their lips with their fingers. :) Down 774. We could be ending the day at the bell in “corrrection” territory. I love watching the last few minutes. :)

  57. 57
    Blake says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 55:

    RE: Eastsider @ 46

    Anyone talking about what is going to happen in the housing market instead of watching the stock market right now is just moving their lips with their fingers. :) Down 774. We could be ending the day at the bell in “corrrection” territory. I love watching the last few minutes. :)

    Pretty steep descent now… -831 and counting.

    I still think this is a just a “cleansing” by the big players who will re position themselves and drive it up again. The casino is Open!

    I thought this was telling:
    “Banks Cheer Return of Wild Markets” [Wall Street Journal]. “Banks have blamed placid markets for lackluster returns in their big trading operations. This week they’re cheering the big market swings, seeing hope for a boost in fees that dropped off a cliff last year. ‘Anything that brings back volatility would be good,‘ said Peter Tchir, macro-investing strategist at New York-based Academy Securities LLC. ‘Maybe we could see a return to better quarters’ for banks across their fixed-income trading businesses, from currencies to interest-rate hedging.”

    The traders (Goldman Sachs, JPM etc.) want this…

  58. 58

    RE: Blake @ 56

    1,033 down at the bell!

  59. 59
    Justme says:

    “Find your dream home before not-you finds it” –realtor.com

    Obligatory sarcastic reference: “Suzanne researched this!”

    Background: My ad-blocker is malfunctioning the last 2 days. That nice ad from realtor.com was the best one of the day, right there on top of the marketwatch.com page underneath the screaming headline of another 1000+ point DJIA index drop.

    You couldn’t make this stuff up.

  60. 60
    Blake says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 57:

    RE: Blake @ 56

    1,033 down at the bell!

    For perspective, it’s dropped ~9% the last 5 days, but only back to where it was just after Thanksgiving!

    Even though I tend to be a bear (long term), I think the market will bounce back because all the economic fundamentals are currently bullish. But long-time investing guru Carl Icahn says beware! Tremors…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-06/icahn-says-market-turn-is-rumbling-of-earthquake-ahead
    Carl Icahn says he expects stock markets to bounce back after the massive selloff Friday and Monday, while warning that current market volatility is a harbinger of things to come.

    “This is just a little rumbling, a little fault line,” Icahn told CNBC in an interview Tuesday. “Before the earthquake, you get the rumblings and then maybe you don’t have an earthquake for 20 years, or 10 years, or five years. But these are the rumblings.”

    The billionaire investor said markets will get some help from a healthy economy, including strong fundamentals for U.S. corporations that include the new tax benefits taking effect this year.

    The volatility of recent weeks is cause for concern, Icahn said, adding that he doesn’t remember a two-week period as turbulent as this one. He said the problem is that too much money is flowing into the index funds, where investors don’t know what they’re actually investing in.

    “Passive investing is the bubble right now, and that’s a great danger,” he said.

    Eventually, that will implode and could lead to a crisis bigger than in 2009, he added.

    “When you start using the market as a casino, that’s a huge mistake,” Icahn said.

  61. 61
    Justme says:

    Actress Elizabeth Banks researched this!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=siDjdwL18b8

  62. 62

    By sleepless @ 54:

    Has folks received their new King County tax assessment yet? I heard some got increases as big as 25% this year. I wonder if that would chill the overheated market a little bit.

    The numbers should be posted any day now–I’ve checked the last two days. But again, some areas will be hit hard, some not at all.

    It is something buyers seem to look at based on the small sample of people I deal with. The newspapers covering it repeatedly is undoubtedly part of the reason. It’s almost SNL “Generalissimo Francisco Franco is still dead” type coverage at this point.

  63. 63

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 61

    I’m checking as well. There are some active listings in Snohomish showing 22% less than current taxes in the listing, based on houses I’m showing-seeing and I’m adjusting for my clients. Checked about an hour ago in King and nothing. Not sure if they do them all at once?

  64. 64

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 62 – S-Crow indicated that Snohomish had already done theirs, but I haven’t checked any up there. The latest King should get them posted would be about the 12th or 13th since I think they aim for the 14th for delivery by mail.

  65. 65
    Blake says:

    By Blake @ 56:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 55:

    RE: Eastsider @ 46

    Anyone talking about what is going to happen in the housing market instead of watching the stock market right now is just moving their lips with their fingers. :) Down 774. We could be ending the day at the bell in “corrrection” territory. I love watching the last few minutes. :)

    Pretty steep descent now… -831 and counting.

    I still think this is a just a “cleansing” by the big players who will re position themselves and drive it up again. The casino is Open!

    I thought this was telling:
    “Banks Cheer Return of Wild Markets” [Wall Street Journal]. “Banks have blamed placid markets for lackluster returns in their big trading operations. This week they’re cheering the big market swings, seeing hope for a boost in fees that dropped off a cliff last year. ‘Anything that brings back volatility would be good,‘ said Peter Tchir, macro-investing strategist at New York-based Academy Securities LLC. ‘Maybe we could see a return to better quarters’ for banks across their fixed-income trading businesses, from currencies to interest-rate hedging.”

    The traders (Goldman Sachs, JPM etc.) want this…

    I was curious how the latest market gyrations compared to ’07-08. It seems kind of familiar, because I recalled there were quite a few “false alarms” before the big crash hit in late Sept ’08.

    DOW…
    2007
    Aug -6 1/2%
    Sept +7%
    to Nov -8%
    early Dec +5%

    2008
    Jan -11%
    to May +9 1/2%
    to July -15%
    Then pretty much flat til late September, AND then -26%!!

    Hmmm… What does this 9% drop the last 5 days mean? Where does it fit in?

    One difference: That ’02-07 market was up only 90% before the fall…
    This one has risen more then 300% since ’09!!

    History doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.

    (Me… I’m just trying to get my mother’s house on the market and sold by May or June!)

  66. 66
    Kmac says:

    My Snohomish County levy rate for 2018 is 12.08%

    previous years:
    2017 – 11.58%
    2016 – 12.08%
    2015 – 13.61%

    My land valuation is up drastically, at about 50% over 2017, but the rest of my gargantuan actual dollar increase this year is mostly because my 2017 tax rate was based on my then unfinished new construction in mid 2016.

    They look to be preparing for backlash though, because they are now breaking it down into:
    “voted amount” and “non-voted amount” on their website.
    Maybe people will actually see what their -feel good – voting practices actually amount to in dollars that they have to pay.

  67. 67
    ess says:

    RE: Kmac @ 65

    Kmac

    You got off easy -some cities, such as Lake Stevens and Mountlake Terrace are paying over 20%. That should get their attention.

    They have been placing the two amounts – highlighting the ones voted by the electorate for a number of years.

    Or in other words – don’t blame us – it isn’t our fault your fellow citizens keep on voting for all these initiatives that jack up the property taxes.

    I know more and more individuals that automatically vote no on any tax initiative. Don’t know if the negative no votes will offset those who vote yes for anything and everthing, and figure someone else (property owners) will pay for it.

  68. 68

    RE: Blake @ 64

    I was thinking back to Blue Friday and Black Monday of 87. I was a portfolio manager at that time and switched to Real Estate in 1990. There was a major housing market crash subsequent to the 87 stock market decline…a bit of a lag. But that 87 stock market crash took quite some time to recover. Keep watching…every day matters.

  69. 69
    S-Crow says:

    RE: ess @ 66RE: Kmac @ 65 – The land valuations are really going to blow people out of the water.

    Yesterday, I was waiting in line at the excise tax desk at SnoCo on a transaction and overheard a gentleman talking at the property tax desk a few steps over about how his taxes could go up so much. When I left I walked over to the staffer and said, “just wait until March and April.” She grinned at me.

    Everyone’s mortgage payments are going up. Many lenders will be adjusting for possible shortages in borrowers escrow accounts for taxes/insurance.

  70. 70
    Kmac says:

    What is drastically raising some locale’s levy rates?
    Is it Sound Transit?

    RE: ess @ 66
    I just noticed the voter -vs- non voter breakdown the last month or so, but maybe we are talking about a different source of info…

  71. 71
    ess says:

    By Kmac @ 69:

    What is drastically raising some locale’s levy rates?
    Is it Sound Transit?

    RE: ess @ 66
    I just noticed the voter -vs- non voter breakdown the last month or so, but maybe we are talking about a different source of info…

    I am referring to the printed assessment that Snohomish County auditor sends once a year with the two payment stubs for the year. I have noticed that breakdown for a number of years.

  72. 72
    ess says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 68

    Won’t be too many people grinning at that time – that is for sure

  73. 73
    sleepless says:

    Any Trumpsters here (SWE, where are you?)? I wonder, since Trump took all credit for the last years stock market bull run, will he have enuf balls to take the blame for the sell off? Is it time for Trump to fall on his sward? Or it will be Obama’s fault, business as usual, just blame the previous administrations for all the sins.

  74. 74
    JohnSmith says:

    Has the tide finally turned? Watch oil and semi stocks. Rates are going up up up finally.

  75. 75

    RE: Kmac @ 69

    And how do the school bond votes happening now impact all this? LWSD vote is 2/13. When does a yes vote on that impact taxes? If we see a 22% increase before the vote…what happens after the vote and when?

  76. 76
    sleepless says:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 73:

    RE: Kmac @ 69

    And how do the school bond votes happening now impact all this? LWSD vote is 2/13. When does a yes vote on that impact taxes? If we see a 22% increase before the vote…what happens after the vote and when?

    I have yet to see a single instance in history when people didn’t vote “for schools” or “for children” or whatever names the gubmint comes up with.

  77. 77
    Kmac says:

    RE: Matt P @ 53RE:
    Both Kary and Ardell stated a few days ago that they have never met a seller that was leaving because of the bad weather…… ;-)

    ess @ 66RE:
    Well, after checking out SCOPI, which is like King County’s parcel viewer, MLT is actually at 11.25% , Unincorporated (SnoCo) Bothell is 11.2%, City of Bothell is 10%, Uninc. Lake Stevens is 11.98% and City of Lake Stevens = 11.93% .
    You must be referring to a percentage increase instead of a levy rate ???

    And I noticed that the STA is **ONLY** .23% per 1k – (Boy am I glad I don’t have to pay for that- just want to rub that in-haha )

    RE: sleepless @ 72RE:
    and just a few months prior, he was going on and on about how phony the economy really was…..pfft

    Ardell DellaLoggia @ 73RE:
    I know…crazy huh? Just hand over your paycheck while you’re at it ;-)

    sleepless @ 74RE:
    Happens occasionally in some of the “less desirable” cities and towns in this great state

  78. 78
    Kmac says:

    Gosh – what sends comments to moderation?

  79. 79
    Eastsider says:

    FYI – XLRE (Real Estate Select Sector SPDR Fund) closed below its inception price on 10/7/2015. Also, 10yr yield has held up despite the stock market correction.

  80. 80
    David says:

    Seattle Transit Taxes compounded over 20 years at the 6.89% historical stock market return (after tax) is like giving away $80,000 of your savings before you even get on the train. Dramatically more if you could achieve higher annual returns than that.

    Assumption $1,000 extra train tax.

    Same amount invested in Berkshire Hathway stock over 20 years would have been = $377,464.77 (BEFORE you pay to ride the train)

    As Mark Twain said (who went badly bankrupt): “It isn’t what you know that gets you into trouble, it’s what you know that just ain’t so.”

    What I know that is true is how stupid Seattle area citizens can really be.

    Hello New California.

  81. 81
    Blurtman says:

    RE: sleepless @ 72RE: sleepless @ 72 – Clearly we need to ditch the Volker rule and get rid of Dodd-Frank. Let the eagle soar! Cisaillez les moutons.!

  82. 82
    Erik says:

    RE: Kmac @ 75
    When we see someone start to uncover the truth, we send that comment to be moderated by our Quality team. Some of these comments are locked up in a virtual safe and never come back. Be careful what you say…

  83. 83
    Erik says:

    RE: Blurtman @ 78
    I’ve been saying that for a while. These checks and balances are slowing us down from making money. We need to free ourselves from these constraints.

  84. 84

    Sanctuary City Flight From Taxation and High Priced Real Estate?

    http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/02/08/san-francisco-bay-area-mass-exodus-residents/

    When the retired folks die, even rich elite have trouble affording the prices and taxes…

  85. 85

    By sleepless @ 72:

    Any Trumpsters here (SWE, where are you?)? I wonder, since Trump took all credit for the last years stock market bull run, will he have enuf balls to take the blame for the sell off? Is it time for Trump to fall on his sward? Or it will be Obama’s fault, business as usual, just blame the previous administrations for all the sins.

    https://www.newyorker.com/humor/borowitz-report/trump-considering-firing-dow-jones-industrial-average

  86. 86

    By sleepless @ 74:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 73:

    RE: Kmac @ 69

    And how do the school bond votes happening now impact all this? LWSD vote is 2/13. When does a yes vote on that impact taxes? If we see a 22% increase before the vote…what happens after the vote and when?

    I have yet to see a single instance in history when people didn’t vote “for schools” or “for children” or whatever names the gubmint comes up with.

    You don’t look very hard. There are a lot of school districts that have difficulty passing levies. And just last year fire stations in the Maple Valley area were being shut down because people wouldn’t vote to fund them.

  87. 87

    By Kmac @ 75:

    Gosh – what sends comments to moderation?

    Seemingly random things, including too many links or even not cutting out all the back and forth when a post ends up quoting more than three people. Sometimes the person quoted also seems to impact it, as can the words used.

  88. 88
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    All of the country’s top cities have more people moving out than in. It’s called “gentrification”.

  89. 89

    RE: Wile E. Millenial @ 88 – Except I suspect the data we’re dealing with is regional, not just limited to the city limits of Seattle.

  90. 90
    greg says:

    By Blake @ 60:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 57:

    RE: Blake @ 56

    1,033 down at the bell!

    For perspective, it’s dropped ~9% the last 5 days, but only back to where it was just after Thanksgiving!

    Even though I tend to be a bear (long term), I think the market will bounce back because all the economic fundamentals are currently bullish. But long-time investing guru Carl Icahn says beware! Tremors…

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-06/icahn-says-market-turn-is-rumbling-of-earthquake-ahead
    Carl Icahn says he expects stock markets to bounce back after the massive selloff Friday and Monday, while warning that current market volatility is a harbinger of things to come.

    “This is just a little rumbling, a little fault line,” Icahn told CNBC in an interview Tuesday. “Before the earthquake, you get the rumblings and then maybe you don’t have an earthquake for 20 years, or 10 years, or five years. But these are the rumblings.”

    The billionaire investor said markets will get some help from a healthy economy, including strong fundamentals for U.S. corporations that include the new tax benefits taking effect this year.

    The volatility of recent weeks is cause for concern, Icahn said, adding that he doesn’t remember a two-week period as turbulent as this one. He said the problem is that too much money is flowing into the index funds, where investors don’t know what they’re actually investing in.

    “Passive investing is the bubble right now, and that’s a great danger,” he said.

    Eventually, that will implode and could lead to a crisis bigger than in 2009, he added.

    “When you start using the market as a casino, that’s a huge mistake,” Icahn said.

    I would not listen to a word Icahn says, the man will say whatever suits his needs. He is as dodgy as they come. He is the kind of guy who will bad mouth a business to drive down the price, he has been involved in a bunch of very questionable deals. Frankly i would not trust him with at all.

  91. 91

    Peaked Jan 26, 2018 for future reference for all market indicaters. We are today officially in correction mode in both The Dow and the S&P 500. Some prefer the latter as the better benchmark. I’m an “old school” DOW follower. Locally people prefer the NASDAQ which went into correction territory this morning between 11:30 a.m. and noon. Waiting for the bell…

  92. 92
    N says:

    @ Ardell 90 – Everyone has a stat right now, 10% of S&P 500 components are in a bear market etc, but one telling point is this is shaping up to be the worst week since 2009.

    Even with the reports Amazon is getting into the shipping business they are still down 62 points.

  93. 93
    Kmac says:

    Dow 14000.
    here we come ;-)

  94. 94
    greg says:

    By sleepless @ 76:

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 73:

    RE: Kmac @ 69

    And how do the school bond votes happening now impact all this? LWSD vote is 2/13. When does a yes vote on that impact taxes? If we see a 22% increase before the vote…what happens after the vote and when?

    I have yet to see a single instance in history when people didn’t vote “for schools” or “for children” or whatever names the gubmint comes up with.

    naw i have seen it a bunch of times. Often the schools put forward a real big ask, and then come back in the summer with the request for the money they need as opposed to want.

  95. 95
    Justme says:

    The FANGTA stocks are bifurcating into the ANT class (AMZN,NFLX,TSLA) and the FAG class (FB,AAPL,GOOGL) stocks today . The ANT stocks are the most severely overvalued of the bunch and are dropping ~4-5% while the FAG are dropping ~2%.

    I think specuvestors have realized that the ANTs are not much of a store of value, while the FAGs are deemed to be at least not quite as bad, for the moment.

    Then there is EXPE, another local Seattle heros that is down 20% and in a class of its own today.

    Interesting times.

  96. 96
    Blake says:

    Dow yow!! I’d like to recall my post @56… :-)
    Last night I read that the Chinese equities have shed $660 billion so far… and their market is 1/4 the size of ours! China has been the engine of world growth the last decade (which was built on unprecedented levels of debt!) and it appears they have been lying in their official economic data for years! Keep an eye on China.

    I also read that a lot of large speculators are being forced to close and cover long positions they were trying to hold onto – especially bets that interest rates would not rise! That forces selling in other asset classes to pay off their margin debt.

  97. 97
    N says:

    @Justme 94 – Your so called ANT stocks have PE’s of 208, 191, zero (no profit) while FAG has 31, 15, and 55.

  98. 98
    Justme says:

    RE: N @ 96

    That’s the general picture, yes, although I have not checked specific PE numbers today. Investors know this, and because the ANTs are so insanely speculative, they are dropping at 2X the rate of the FAGs when the selling picks up.

  99. 99
    Doug says:

    RE: Justme @ 94 – are you short those names?

  100. 100
    Doug says:

    Sharp bounce off the 200 DMA. Sell off is likely over. But at least the media got to increase their page views for a couple of days.

  101. 101
    sleepless says:

    By Blurtman @ 81:

    RE: sleepless @ 72RE: sleepless @ 72 – Clearly we need to ditch the Volker rule and get rid of Dodd-Frank. Let the eagle soar! Cisaillez les moutons.!

    How about ditching Trump and his whole cabinet which is nothing but a bunch of Goldman sucks swamp dwellers and war mongers. And replacing, or rather firing, 90% of congress wouldn’t hurt either.

  102. 102
    Blake says:

    CNBC is reporting that the DOW swung some 4,000 points today!
    The traders – especially the high frequency guys and “front runners” – are like pigs in sh!t today.
    Good for them! (sarc)

  103. 103
    Deerhawke says:

    I learned long ago that the best indicator of a stock’s short term performance is whether I purchase it. Then it immediately tanks.

    So for the most part, I view the stock market as somewhere you put long term money in low cost Vanguard index funds. It is my way of diversifying to balance all of my other money in real estate.

    I do have one Vanguard Large Cap Fund called Primecap that has been closed for a long time and does really well. Just after New Years, I looked at its performance since the last time I had the time to pay attention to it about 14 months ago. It had gone up about 40% or something crazy. I thought about it until mid-January and then decided that it was too much of a good thing. I took all the gains from the last 2 years and dumped it into a low cost diversified bond index fund.

    For the next week or so after that, I was absolutely kicking myself watching the Dow and S&P performance every day. Why didn’t I just leave it alone? Set it and forget it is what I always do. Why get involved in trying to manage things? Diversification is nice and rebalancing is one of those “eat your brocolli” things you are supposed to do every now and again, but dang, look at those big cap returns you are missing….

    Well, this past week I have finally started to see why the Bogleheads preach the beauty of rebalancing and diversification. I have slept a lot better.

  104. 104
    Toad37 says:

    Dow Jones long term trendline from 1987 low to 2018 high … if it corrects down to that first Fibonacci level it would be a 36% correction. I’m not saying the top is in to this bull, but it is likely only marginally higher if it isn’t already in.

    If Ardell is right, we might see a healthy retracement in home prices as well. Be careful out there and have a great weekend.

    https://content.screencast.com/users/toad379304/folders/Jing/media/fac9f1c9-9339-4731-a8e0-127003726285/2018-02-09_1725.png

  105. 105
    David says:

    A pretty good indicator why Trump won – Wall Street hates wages rising – stocks go down if they do. Meaning Wall Street/Democrats are actually vested in US Citizens failing in life.

    Very few people are actually invested in the stock market to a meaningful degree. So they are not as affected by stocks as globalists are.

    I expect Amazon is going to trend MUCH higher. It is ridiculous that the traders are vested in WAGES NOT RISING to sustain stock stability/prices.

  106. 106
    Toad37 says:

    Fascinating chart of 30 year average mortgage rates going back to 1971…. the big question to me is do rates go back towards 6+% or head towards 1% … I’m no expert, but since in my mind 1% seems more likely, it will likely be the 6+%… :-)))

    https://content.screencast.com/users/toad379304/folders/Jing/media/17b29e71-220c-44a8-8014-43614260c99e/2018-02-09_1815.png

  107. 107
    Kmac says:

    RE: Toad37 @ 105

    I have to ask how you are attaching pictures that show up in The Tim’s graphics slideshow?

  108. 108
    Kmac says:

    Will this happen here? :
    http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/02/08/san-francisco-bay-area-mass-exodus-residents/

    I’ve been told that this already is already going on:

    Operators of a San Jose U-Haul business say one of their biggest problems is getting its rental moving vans back because so many are on a one-way ticket out of town.

  109. 109
    Toad37 says:

    RE: Kmac @ 106 – I’m just posting links from my screencast jing.

  110. 110
    ess says:

    RE: Deerhawke @ 102

    Well, this past week I have finally started to see why the Bogleheads preach the beauty of rebalancing and diversification. I have slept a lot better.

    ————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————————-

    An interesting and simple exercise is to research one of the longer established S and P funds and view the yearly results. For the most part, the funds sustain a few years of increases, and then retrench for the next year or two. One can observe the benefits of rebalancing in that type of environment, especially when no one knows which years will be up or down.

    The two closed Primecap funds have done well over the years, but many favor index funds which provide an average result without having to pick winners (some) and losers (more). In the world of investing – average is pretty good, as a majority of actively managed funds can’t even meet their benchmarks.

  111. 111
    ess says:

    By Kmac @ 107:

    Will this happen here? :
    http://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2018/02/08/san-francisco-bay-area-mass-exodus-residents/

    I’ve been told that this already is already going on:

    Operators of a San Jose U-Haul business say one of their biggest problems is getting its rental moving vans back because so many are on a one-way ticket out of town.

    But yet housing prices in that area not only remain strong, but are increasing. So perhaps there is not a strong correlation between housing prices and the result of U Haul business in that area. Perhaps the people migrating to that area that are just starting out don’t need U-Hauls. When I moved to Seattle many moons ago – all my worldly possessions fit in two suitcases. Now as we contemplate leaving this area – one of the biggest challenges is getting rid of half the accumulated stuff, and we will still need to use a U haul, pod or moving company to make our escape.

    The article you posted referenced a resident of the Bay area relocating to Tennessee. In the course of our recent travels, we met a couple that had retired from the panhandle of Florida and relocated to Tennessee to take advantage of housing prices. As northern Florida housing prices appeared to be modest – Tennessee must have some great real estate bargains!

  112. 112
    Doug says:

    RE: Doug @ 98 – I didn’t think so. Honestly, until you put your money where your mouth is then just stop commenting here. Talking about our paper portfolios is a waste of everyone’s time.

    “Seek advice on risk from the wealthy who still take risks, not friends who dare nothing more than a football bet” — J. Paul Getty

  113. 113

    RE: Deerhawke @ 49
    Ever Wonder Why Bush Never Criticized Obama from 2009-2016?

    They both belong to the same Clinton Cartel Open Border Progressive Party. Ya can’t buy off Trump with Soros type billionaire CASH [or Clinton Foundation Russian Money] and Trump’s attorneys are top notch, not educated idiot low paid government ones….Trump can’t be bribed by anyone. He’s invested $1.3 Billion of his wealth into America so far and loves it! He’s untouchable.

    He’s far more intelligent and GENEROUS than open border DIMWITS that REPLACED normal paid legal American skills and experience with college graduates educated idiots and low skilled foreign welfare recipient immigrants, then lowered our pay and told us to vote for them? LOL, I’m rolling on the ground in laughter now….

  114. 114
    Kmac says:

    By ess @ 110:
    But yet housing prices in that area not only remain strong, but are increasing. So perhaps there is not a strong correlation between housing prices and the result of U Haul business in that area.

    Corrected it for you:
    “But yet housing prices in that area not only remain strong, but are increasing. So perhaps there is not a strong correlation between housing prices and the result of a mass exodus in that area. ”

    I do agree, but the U-Haul reference wasn’t the main focus of the article, just a side note, and it also resembles what I’ve been told by a local agent for a different brand of rental trucks locally several months ago.
    Yes, by itself, doesn’t mean much.

  115. 115
    ess says:

    By Kmac @ 113:

    By ess @ 110:
    But yet housing prices in that area not only remain strong, but are increasing. So perhaps there is not a strong correlation between housing prices and the result of U Haul business in that area.

    Corrected it for you:
    “But yet housing prices in that area not only remain strong, but are increasing. So perhaps there is not a strong correlation between housing prices and the result of a mass exodus in that area. ”

    I do agree, but the U-Haul reference wasn’t the main focus of the article, just a side note, and it also resembles what I’ve been told by a local agent for a different brand of rental trucks locally several months ago.
    Yes, by itself, doesn’t mean much.

    With the dramatic increase of prices in the Bay area – it would be interesting to determine if it is longer term residents cashing in and fleeing to areas with less expensive housing, or younger renters giving up because they just can’t make it.

    Imagine if there was no Prop 13 – the exodus of longer term residents would be massive as many probably would find it difficult to keep up with property taxes. Longer term residents of California pay a fraction of the property taxes we pay in this areas for houses that are worth considerably more.

    I don’t think Seattle has reached that level yet for renters , as there are still relatively inexpensive areas within hailing distance of Seattle that renters can afford as an alternative to trendy Seattle neighborhoods. On the other hand – longer term residents such as myself who have some equity think more and more of leaving this area, especially when stuck in traffic and thinking about the latest outrageous property tax increases that are in the works.

  116. 116
    whatsmyname says:

    RE: softwarengineer @ 112
    “To get back to the warning that I’ve received, you might take it with however many grains of salt you wish, that the brown acid that is circulating around us is not specifically too good. It’s suggested that you do stay away from that. Of course it’s your own trip, so be my guest. But please be advised that there’s a warning on that one, okay?”

  117. 117
    Kmac says:

    RE: whatsmyname @ 115
    Had to google that….
    Good one!

  118. 118

    RE: Deerhawke @ 49
    Watergate Makes FBI Corruption at HIGH LEVELS

    Seem like a joke in comparison. Watergate was a mole hill….this is Mount Everest.

    There will be long prison terms coming for the guilty anarchists.

  119. 119

    RE: whatsmyname @ 115
    Reminds Me of Medicaid Opioids

    Our AMA feeds them to America like brown acid and Americans die in flocks of 50,000-100,000 per year.

  120. 120

    Judging by the comments here, or more precisely the lack thereof, one difference between now and 2007-2008 is that the price increases don’t seem to be based as much on hype and speculation.

  121. 121
    Kmac says:

    I think people are just tired of the “”it’s a bubble….” no….”it’s not a bubble”” banter.

    So many things are not “right” or “normal”, but yet it continues……

  122. 122
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 119:

    Judging by the comments here, or more precisely the lack thereof, one difference between now and 2007-2008 is that the price increases don’t seem to be based as much on hype and speculation.

    Based on the number of “all cash” buyers, I have to disagree. This is exactly what the pricess are based on – hype and speculation. Ill gotten Chinese money combined with hype of “missing out” chasing the scarse assets. Stock market is a good example of the same type of hype where assets perpetually go up without any correction whatsoever regardless of the companies performance. BTW, just before you jump on “rasis” train for me calling on Chinese buying up West coast real estate, look no further than VA, BC. What happened after they intoduced the “foriegn” tax? Guess what would happen if WA were to have a tax like that.

  123. 123

    RE: sleepless @ 73
    Hi Sleepless

    You can call me a Trump Populist, not a Republican Progressive or Democrat….same party.

    Think long-term like Trump. Yeah the fight over crushing out chain migration OVERPOPULATION will be distasteful to a small percentage of America [according to the polls]. But won’t it be nice to have Manufacturing Engineering Boeing Headquarters in Seattle, instead of Tokyo? Homes in Seattle would fetch FAR more than now.

    After Obama was elected, George Bush didn’t criticize Obama, ever wonder why? They both are open border progressives and do not side with majority voters on immigration issues.

  124. 124
    Justme says:

    Maybe it is quiet because Amazon is shrinking its Seattle workforce, as is being reported today.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-laying-off-corporate-employees-in-rare-cutback/

    “Amazon is cutting several hundred jobs in Seattle, and hundreds elsewhere, a rare layoff that appears to fall predominantly on its established consumer retail business. The company continues to hire aggressively in other areas.”

  125. 125

    RE: S-Crow @ 69
    Yes My Property Tax Increase in 2018 Appears 33%

    Add to that my home insurance went up 100%….they canceled my PEMCO policy even though it had no claims [ever] and replaced it with double rates Foremost only insurance…

    My house is the lower tier 1 price, I pity you folks that own three times that per unit… and I don’t want those triple size utilities bills either [with comparable usage history for room temperature]….LOL….huge cathedral ceilings with window roofs really suck heat.

  126. 126

    RE: Justme @ 123
    They Fire MASSES in Stealth

    Then a Jack in the Box opens up to hire and its front page….LOL

  127. 127

    By sleepless @ 121:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 119:

    Judging by the comments here, or more precisely the lack thereof, one difference between now and 2007-2008 is that the price increases don’t seem to be based as much on hype and speculation.

    Based on the number of “all cash” buyers, I have to disagree. This is exactly what the pricess are based on – hype and speculation.

    People don’t tend to speculate as much with cash. Speculation tends to involve high amounts of leverage. Otherwise the return is too low.

    As to Canada, what has happened? The latest news I recall is that any impact was relatively temporary. And BTW, it’s only racist to refer to foreign buyers if you’re making the assumption that they are foreign only due to their race, last name or the language they speak.

    On that topic though, in the past I’ve mentioned that I don’t typically know the citizenship of my clients, because it doesn’t come up as a topic (at least buyers–for sellers there is FIRPTA). Anyway, I just learned one of my past clients recently became a nationalized citizen. I had no idea that she wasn’t a citizen.

  128. 128

    By softwarengineer @ 124:

    Yes My Property Tax Increase in 2018 Appears 33%

    Add to that my home insurance went up 100%….they canceled my PEMCO policy even though it had no claims [ever] and replaced it with double rates Foremost only insurance…

    I’m assuming you’re looking at the assessment increase, because King County still doesn’t have the new rates posted. If not, where did you get that information?

    As to Pemco, they’re pulling out of rural areas due to the wildfire risk. I’m a bit surprised that includes your areas (Maple Valley–right?).

  129. 129

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 127
    Hi Kary….Good Questions

    It took me days of research [what the heck I’m retired] to track down the fact that Mobile Home insurance really only has ONE insurance company [there’s another but its 4 times rates] nationwide….they can call it State farm, Allstate, Farmers, whatever [I called all over the country]….but the LEGAL declaration is Foremost. They just refer you to their subcontractor who has your legal contract [they probably get a finder’s fee from Foremost]. Its a ponzi-scheme IMO. I learned a lot of legal mumbo jumbo they use…..PEMCO was at least up front with me and truthfully just canceled my policy and told me to go to Foremost.

    The 33% property tax estimate for 2018 is just based on the King County Value Notice card I received last Fall….but it probably doesn’t include the Feb 2018 school and fire department property tax special election increases [these bills usually pass BTW] they’ll additionally ADD IN this month. I voted no on the special election ballot because the schools can’t teach math and science anymore; the fire department hires folks with degrees now, time to downsize pay and hire only high school graduates again?

  130. 130
    uwp says:

    By Justme @ 123:

    Maybe it is quiet because Amazon is shrinking its Seattle workforce, as is being reported today.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/amazon/amazon-laying-off-corporate-employees-in-rare-cutback/

    You left out some other good quotes from the article:

    Amazon’s job listings in its hometown have climbed in recent weeks, as executives approved plans for 2018, and granted teams — particularly those in the Amazon Web Services cloud computing unit and working on voice-activated Alexa software — permission to hire.

    The company on Monday had more than 4,000 job listings posted for Seattle, up 23 percent from the multiyear low in January.”

    The horror… the horror!

  131. 131

    By softwarengineer @ 128:

    The 33% property tax estimate for 2018 is just based on the King County Value Notice card I received last Fall….but it probably doesn’t include the Feb 2018 school and fire department property tax special election increases [these bills usually pass BTW] they’ll additionally ADD IN this month. I voted no on the special election ballot because the schools can’t teach math and science anymore; the fire department hires folks with degrees now, time to downsize pay and hire only high school graduates again?

    It doesn’t work that way, and then there’s also the impact of the McCleary decision. I’ll let you know when I see the numbers posted, but it might not be until the 15th (which would surprise me, but that’s what their website seems to indicate).

  132. 132
    sleepless says:

    By softwarengineer @ 122:

    RE: sleepless @ 73
    Think long-term like Trump. Yeah the fight over crushing out chain migration OVERPOPULATION will be distasteful to a small percentage of America [according to the polls]. But won’t it be nice to have Manufacturing Engineering Boeing Headquarters in Seattle, instead of Tokyo? Homes in Seattle would fetch FAR more than now…

    Obama sucked alright, so did Bush, so did Clinton, so did the grandpa Bush… you get the point. You pick one issue you agree on with the Team Orange and it automatically makes him a good POTUS? What about all the other issues? And what exactly did Team Orange do differently from the Team Obumer? You focus on populous issues lake immigration, racism, LGBT, etc, but you forget the fundamental ones, like Team Orange does exactly what Team Obumer did before him – continue to give more money to the Wall Street while driving the middle class out of the existence. Continue to give more power to the government agencies like DHS, FBI, CIA, while eroding the personal liberties and privacy. Continue to feed the military industrial complex that keeps bankrupting the country, keeps fighting Bush’s/Obama’s wars overseas. Keeps piling up on more government debt while taking away from social security and medicare. Keep filling all major gubmint roles with Goldman Sucks and Soros dwellers as well as Rusofobs/Iranofobs/Chinafobs war mongers. The “Wall” is a complete scam, which will not stop illegal immigration, nothing but the money laundering scheme, same as the “$1.5T infrastructure bill”. While this country has welfare state that encourages illegal immigrants, illegal immigration will never stop. Remove welfare state for illegals, and they will self deport next day. BTW, just for your knowledge, Obumer deported a record number of illegals during his presidency, more than the Team Orange will ever do. Also, i don’t remember him doing anything to improve trade deficits other than imposing lumber tariffs for CA as well as washing machines tarries for China. I don’t see him addressing the Fed issue either.

    You think Obumer was bad? Wait until the Team Orange doubles the national debt (the projected deficit for the next year is $1.5T already), take what ever is remaining of your personal liberties and freedoms. The Team Orange has already double Obumers number of drone kills and quadrupled the kill list.

    You keep falling into the same left-right paradigm. You keep criticizing Obumer while prefer to ignore completely what the Red team does. Both parties are the same, the puppets come and go, the puppet masters remain. It is time to admit that you were lied to and move along.

  133. 133
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 126:

    People don’t tend to speculate as much with cash.

    I guess, you haven’t heard on cryptocurrencies? More than 90% of cryptos are purchased with cash.

    On that topic though, in the past I’ve mentioned that I don’t typically know the citizenship of my clients, because it doesn’t come up as a topic (at least buyers–for sellers there is FIRPTA). Anyway, I just learned one of my past clients recently became a nationalized citizen. I had no idea that she wasn’t a citizen.

    I guess, the dollar figures make you blind and deaf :). Or is it your political correctness :). Lets deny the obvious and pretend not to to see or hear what is going on. I have lived in the area for 10 years and i have seen the demographic change from mostly predominantly white population in Bellevue to mostly Chinese. And yes, i do make “assumptions” since I don’t see the inflow of Chinese business in the area that would justify the inflow of high earners of Chinese origin. Also, since i have work in Tech for many years, no more Chinese work now at Amazon, Google, MSFT or FB than 5 years ago. And the most important part is that most of them don’t even speak English. I suggest you to walk in DT Bellevue sometimes, or go hiking in nearby mountains. And obviously, i don’t have any number to prove my observation since it would require some kind of census data which would be considered extremely “rasis”.

  134. 134

    By sleepless @ 132:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 126:

    People don’t tend to speculate as much with cash.

    I guess, you haven’t heard on cryptocurrencies? More than 90% of cryptos are purchased with cash.

    Which I guess explains why the credit card companies are cutting them off. /sarc

    Also, there’s the issue of money laundering.

    On that topic though, in the past I’ve mentioned that I don’t typically know the citizenship of my clients, because it doesn’t come up as a topic (at least buyers–for sellers there is FIRPTA). Anyway, I just learned one of my past clients recently became a nationalized citizen. I had no idea that she wasn’t a citizen.

    I guess, the dollar figures make you blind and deaf :). Or is it your political correctness :). Lets deny the obvious and pretend not to to see or hear what is going on. I have lived in the area for 10 years and i have seen the demographic change from mostly predominantly white population in Bellevue to mostly Chinese.

    Yes, and I assume you walk up to them and demand to see their passports! /sarc

    Give it a break. You don’t have a clue whether those people are citizens, resident aliens or non-resident aliens.

  135. 135
    wreckingbull says:

    By Kmac @ 78:

    Gosh – what sends comments to moderation?

    Seriously, it’s usually overly-zealous use of triple periods (dot dot dot). Perhaps viagra ads use a similar punctuation scheme. I don’t know any more details, but that is what I have noticed in the past.

  136. 136
    greg says:

    By sleepless @ 132:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 126:

    People don’t tend to speculate as much with cash.

    I guess, you haven’t heard on cryptocurrencies? More than 90% of cryptos are purchased with cash.

    On that topic though, in the past I’ve mentioned that I don’t typically know the citizenship of my clients, because it doesn’t come up as a topic (at least buyers–for sellers there is FIRPTA). Anyway, I just learned one of my past clients recently became a nationalized citizen. I had no idea that she wasn’t a citizen.

    I guess, the dollar figures make you blind and deaf :). Or is it your political correctness :). Lets deny the obvious and pretend not to to see or hear what is going on. I have lived in the area for 10 years and i have seen the demographic change from mostly predominantly white population in Bellevue to mostly Chinese. And yes, i do make “assumptions” since I don’t see the inflow of Chinese business in the area that would justify the inflow of high earners of Chinese origin. Also, since i have work in Tech for many years, no more Chinese work now at Amazon, Google, MSFT or FB than 5 years ago. And the most important part is that most of them don’t even speak English. I suggest you to walk in DT Bellevue sometimes, or go hiking in nearby mountains. And obviously, i don’t have any number to prove my observation since it would require some kind of census data which would be considered extremely “rasis”.

    IN 2016 Bellevue’s pop was 34.xx% asian , and asian includes Indians too. so your “mostly Chinese ” nonsense is in your head.
    In 2000 is was 17.xx% and MSFT has massively changed over the same time frame, they went from almost completely white american men to over 30% asian (they hit 30% a few years back).

    Sleeper you are likely suffering from Frequency illusion, and maybe some confirmation bias.

    go to city data.com look up any city you like everything is there , that is what they do. You can see the change in racial profile by looking at the census data they provide and even use the link they provide to compare time frames.

    What you might be missing is that it does not take a lot of people entering a market to drastically alter prices.

  137. 137
    Anonymous Coward says:

    RE: greg @ 135 – But that doesn’t tell you anything about citizenship status, let alone source of funds…

  138. 138
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 133:

    Yes, and I assume you walk up to them and demand to see their passports! /sarc
    Give it a break. You don’t have a clue whether those people are citizens, resident aliens or non-resident aliens.

    Have you ever heard of common sense, although, it is not that common lately, especially in liberal infested areas? I guess, you cannot see even obvious when it is in pain sight in front of you, can you? And continue to pretend like this is not happening. Chinese bought up Vancouver, BC, i have friends in VA, they call it Hongcouver for a reason. They must be all “rasis”. Now, they have been buying the west coast, not just Seattle, but also Portland and California. Same goes to other pristine locations like NYC, London, Sidney, etc. Yup, it is all imaginary because no one asked they to show their passports.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/chinas-real-estate-agents-explain-why-they-love-seattle-and-if-they-think-foreign-homebuying-will-keep-surging/
    http://q13fox.com/2017/05/10/more-chinese-investors-buying-up-puget-sound-affecting-housing-market-as-a-whole/
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/chinese-millionaires-pick-seattle-as-no-2-place-in-the-world-to-live-survey-shows/
    http://citylivingseattle.com/Content/News/Urban-Dwellings/Article/How-China-s-crackdown-on-foreign-investment-could-affect-Seattle-home-prices/22/169/91895

    Keep living in your delusional world…

  139. 139
    sleepless says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 133
    Have you ever heard of common sense, although, it is not that common lately, especially in liberal infested areas? I guess, you cannot see even obvious when it is in pain sight in front of you, can you? And continue to pretend like this is not happening. Chinese bought up Vancouver, BC, i have friends in VA, they call it Hongcouver for a reason. They must be all “rasis”. Now, they have been buying the west coast, not just Seattle, but also Portland and California. Same goes to other pristine locations like NYC, London, Sidney, etc. Yup, it is all imaginary because no one asked they to show their passports.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/chinas-real-estate-agents-explain-why-they-love-seattle-and-if-they-think-foreign-homebuying-will-keep-surging/
    http://q13fox.com/2017/05/10/more-chinese-investors-buying-up-puget-sound-affecting-housing-market-as-a-whole/
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/chinese-millionaires-pick-seattle-as-no-2-place-in-the-world-to-live-survey-shows/
    http://citylivingseattle.com/Content/News/Urban-Dwellings/Article/How-China-s-crackdown-on-foreign-investment-could-affect-Seattle-home-prices/22/169/91895

    Keep living in your delusional world…

  140. 140
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 133:

    Yes, and I assume you walk up to them and demand to see their passports! /sarc
    Give it a break. You don’t have a clue whether those people are citizens, resident aliens or non-resident aliens.

    Have you ever heard of common sense, although, it is not that common lately, especially in liberal infested areas? I guess, you cannot see even obvious when it is in pain sight in front of you, can you? And continue to pretend like this is not happening. Chinese bought up Vancouver, BC, i have friends in VA, they call it Hongcouver for a reason. They must be all “rasis”. Now, they have been buying the west coast, not just Seattle, but also Portland and California. Same goes to other pristine locations like NYC, London, Sidney, etc. Yup, it is all imaginary because no one asked they to show their passports.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/chinas-real-estate-agents-explain-why-they-love-seattle-and-if-they-think-foreign-homebuying-will-keep-surging/
    http://q13fox.com/2017/05/10/more-chinese-investors-buying-up-puget-sound-affecting-housing-market-as-a-whole/
    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/chinese-millionaires-pick-seattle-as-no-2-place-in-the-world-to-live-survey-shows/

    Keep living in your delusional world…

  141. 141

    By Anonymous Coward @ 136:

    RE: greg @ 135 – But that doesn’t tell you anything about citizenship status, let alone source of funds…

    On the source of funds topic I believe foreign buyers came up in the context of speculation. For foreign buyers the use of foreign funds wouldn’t necessarily be due to speculation that prices would go up further, but instead speculation that their home country might someday have some sort of a political or economic crackdown or maybe a currency collapse relative to the US. For those concerns money might be flowing out of the country too! ;-)

  142. 142
    greg says:

    RE: Anonymous Coward @ 136

    never claimed it did. But it does completely refute the poster who was claiming there were more Chinese poeple in bellevue than white. I think it was very clear that was my primary point.

    As to who is buying, we don’t need perfect information we need good enough information.

  143. 143
    sleepless says:

    By greg @ 135:

    IN 2016 Bellevue’s pop was 34.xx% asian , and asian includes Indians too. so your “mostly Chinese ” nonsense is in your head.
    In 2000 is was 17.xx% and MSFT has massively changed over the same time frame, they went from almost completely white american men to over 30% asian (they hit 30% a few years back)…

    Bellevue has the 14th largest Asian population of any city in the U.S. with 34.1 percent of residents from that large region.
    https://patch.com/washington/bellevue/new-data-show-bellevue-population-39-foreign-born

  144. 144
    Eastsider says:

    RE: greg @ 138 – He stated clearly that it was based on his observation. In certain Bellevue neighborhood, it may actually be true. You obviously don’t live where he lives.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newport_High_School_(Bellevue,_Washington)

    In the 2016-2017 school year, the total student enrollment was 1,720. The demographics are: 2% Black/African American, 6% Hispanic, 8% Multi-Ethnic, 48% Asian and 36% White. 34% of students speak a first language other than English. 6% of students receive ELL service, and 15% of students qualify for free/reduced lunch.

  145. 145
    David says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 137 – I travel frequently into China and this is indeed their primary motivation. The Chinese military mostly exists to protect the Government from the people. Historically, the Chinese people destroy the government forcefully and suddenly.

  146. 146
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 139

    I believe the District Report indicates that only includes students “who choose to self identify as such”. They further state that back at that time only 40% of all students chose to do so and the number who choose it has continued to decline.

  147. 147
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 141 – You can visit the high school, Somerset neighborhood, or the Factoria mall area to observe for yourself. The statistic I quoted pretty much reflect the demographics in south Bellevue. Many Chinese families choose to live in that area rather than other parts of Bellevue (e.g. Lake Hills.) I won’t be surprised if there are many (rental) homes owned by absentee Chinese investors in that neighborhood.

  148. 148
    redmondjp says:

    By Eastsider @ 142:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 141 – You can visit the high school, Somerset neighborhood, or the Factoria mall area to observe for yourself. The statistic I quoted pretty much reflect the demographics in south Bellevue. Many Chinese families choose to live in that area rather than other parts of Bellevue (e.g. Lake Hills.) I won’t be surprised if there are many (rental) homes owned by absentee Chinese investors in that neighborhood.

    Exactly. Cheeze and crackers, people, why so touchy about the truth? At my local public elementary school in Redmond it is the same way – Asian students are the vast majority – and yes, I know that is a very broad term which includes many different cultures, languages and countries.

    Now for six posts from Kary huffing and puffing about this . . .

  149. 149
    Kmac says:

    RE: wreckingbull @ 134

    You’re probably right.
    That is a bad habit I have picked up on lately.

  150. 150

    RE: Eastsider @ 142

    Not disagreeing, but since you used specific numbers (which are very different from those showing on Great Schools.org) I thought it appropriate to note that those exact numbers may represent less than half of the students responding to the request to state their race.

  151. 151

    RE: redmondjp @ 143

    I was very surprised when I was told I was white. :)

  152. 152
    Eastsider says:

    RE: Ardell DellaLoggia @ 145 – Not trying to pick on you but it makes no sense that GreatSchools.org has better data than Bellevue School District. If the trend keeps up, Bellevue will be like Vancouver in 20 years. Vancouver feels like an Asian city today if you haven’t visited recently.

  153. 153
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 147

    I’m not too sure about that given the report on the website is old and Great Schools data would have to be prior to 2014 to not be more recent. More likely there is more recent data not put into a report yet. But you can’t quote specifics like “34%” without also noting 60% or less weren’t counted at all, which is a fact in the same report.

  154. 154
    Eastsider says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 148 – If you have an issue with Wikipedia data, you should contact Wikipedia about it, or just visit the school! Let me know when it gets ‘fixed’ lol. That said, I suggest that the quoted demographics data reflects very closely the student body.

  155. 155

    By redmondjp @ 143:

    Now for six posts from Kary huffing and puffing about this . . .

    Whatever. I’d first point out that the topic has been Chinese, and not all Asians are Chinese, as has already been pointed out by someone else (although I’d go beyond mentioning India).

    But my core issue on this has been the blatant nonsense that someone can tell something specific about someone by their appearance or language used. There is a word describing such claims, and the word is racist. But go ahead and rather than making snide comments, tell me exactly how I was wrong. How can whoever here who makes the claim tell that the person they see or hear is a citizen, resident alien, non-resident alien, illegal alien, etc.? The simple fact is that they cannot, and their statements are the textbook definition of racist.

    And to what point? People in this country are allowed to own land regardless of their race, national origin or citizenship. And because of that fact there are no valid statistics of what the percentages are of people buying real estate in this country. So let’s go ahead and pretend that we know what we don’t know and place partial blame (or partial credit) for rising prices on a certain group of people. And while we’re pretending, let’s also pretend it’s not racist, even though it obviously is.

  156. 156

    By Eastsider @ 149:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 148 – If you have an issue with Wikipedia data, you should contact Wikipedia about it, or just visit the school!.

    I’m sure just driving by she’ll also be able to determine not only their citizenship and national origin, but also how long each student’s family has been in the country, when they first bought a house, and determine what year they had on impact on real estate prices. /sarc

  157. 157
    Blake says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 151
    Agree Kary… bigots… idiots.
    See this?
    https://twitter.com/DavidKlion/status/963178794952556544
    Bari Weiss is the editor of the NYTimes’ opinion section. She knows an immigrant when she sees one!

  158. 158

    RE: Blake @ 152 – I had not seen that, but this is probably a better link in that it explains the situation better.

    https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/bari-weiss-mirai-nagasu-twitter-backlash_us_5a82262be4b0892a035213f5

    But yes, that is very similar. Assuming due to the color of her skin, race, name, etc., that she was somehow not born here.

  159. 159
    David says:

    My wife is Japanese – she bought a house the minute she set foot here and before she had permanent residency. If I was Chinese though, I’d think LONG and HARD before turning my back on China. China is where the excitement should be.

  160. 160

    RE: sleepless @ 131
    Trump is No Puppet

    He accepts no lobby money….its that simple. Admit it.

    He does fund his agenda with his own $1.3B he kicked in though.

  161. 161

    RE: David @ 104
    Yes Amazon Hires Slave Wage Warehouse Workers [similar to Jack in the Box type wages] in MASSES

    But the high wage techies buying Seattle Real Estate are All on the current Butcher Block.

    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/amazon-cutting-hundreds-corporate-jobs-181115341.html

  162. 162
    ess says:

    An article about the most expensive city to buy a house – hint – it isn’t Seattle.

    As a matter of fact, Seattle did not make the short list.

    But it is interesting to note that in the most expensive city to buy a residence, prices have totally outstripped wage increases. Thus it isn’t only in Seattle and Puget Sound where housing costs are forging ahead of wage income.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-most-expensive-city-to-buy-a-house-and-its-not-even-close-2018-02-13

  163. 163
    Kmac says:

    RE: ess @ 157
    Do you think having housing prices outstripping wages is a sustainable event long term and still have a vibrant middle class?

  164. 164
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    If we all team up, we can push the first racist comment on the page to at least #50. Maybe #100 by 2027.

  165. 165
    David says:

    RE: Kmac @ 158 – Since the ‘vibrant middle class” keep approving massive tax increases, they deserve what they get.

  166. 166
    sleepless says:

    By softwarengineer @ 155:

    RE: sleepless @ 131
    Trump is No Puppet
    He accepts no lobby money….its that simple. Admit it.
    He does fund his agenda with his own $1.3B he kicked in though.

    Whether he accepted or not accepted someones money is up to debate. I guess, we will never know this for sure.
    But, what is clear is that he is a puppet just like all before him. Look at his cabinet, try to find at least a single conservative who is not pro-Israel Rusofob/Iranofob/Chinafob war monger and or police state supporter. Trump keeps cutting social benefits while increasing police state and military spending. He supports most of the same failed policies that Obozo did. More wars overseas, more domestic drug wars and civil forfeiture, more corporate welfare, more “ponzy spending” on the Wall and other nonsense. More illegal and unconstitutional tortures.

    Trump is everything he ran against, just like Obozo supported more of the Bush’s failed policies. You are just like Kary, delusional in your little world, don’t want to wake up to the reality.

    I want to make it clear, i do not support welfare state, but if i have to choose, i would rather give money to the poor, seniors, in need, even though many abuse that, than to MIC to make more weapons and kill brown people overseas.

  167. 167
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 150:

    Whatever. I’d first point out that the topic has been Chinese, and not all Asians are Chinese, as has already been pointed out by someone else (although I’d go beyond mentioning India).

    Actually, Indians are too “poor” to afford Bellevue this is why they are migrating to the north – Bothell, Kenmore, etc.

    But my core issue on this has been the blatant nonsense that someone can tell something specific about someone by their appearance or language used. There is a word describing such claims, and the word is racist.

    Here we go. I was waiting for your to bring up the “racis” card :). It must be “racis” because i don’t like it. The leftist brainwashed liberal argument.

    And to what point? People in this country are allowed to own land regardless of their race, national origin or citizenship. And because of that fact there are no valid statistics of what the percentages are of people buying real estate in this country. So let’s go ahead and pretend that we know what we don’t know and place partial blame (or partial credit) for rising prices on a certain group of people. And while we’re pretending, let’s also pretend it’s not racist, even though it obviously is.

    The argument wasn’t about Chinese “illegally” buying up real estate in Northwest, but simply stating the fact. You claim yourself that there is no statistics that could disprove this claim and yet you argue with the people who actually live here and observe the demographics change. I shared a couple links here, bother to read them before replying.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-becomes-no-1-us-market-for-chinese-homebuyers/
    http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/chinese-real-estate-investors-are-reshaping-the-market/
    Seattle is the closest to Vancouver what Chinese buyers can get, this is why Vancouver BC fever is spread to Seattle. This why Vancouver BC government wanted to chill the housing a bit and introduced the foreign tax. This why Seattle’s government considered to do the same. Whether such a tax is legal or not is different topic, but it doesn’t change the fact that Chinese cash is looking for places to hide, in Seattle metro is one of them.

  168. 168
    sleepless says:

    Also, a couple more “facts” to support my argument. Local schools rely heavily on volunteers for different events. From my “racis” and “sexis” observation, most of the volunteers are stay at home white moms. Guess what is happening lately? Our school is running out of volunteers and canceling the events because stay at home white moms are no where to be found and stay at home Chinese moms do not volunteer. It is a different culture, and it is sooooo “American” to volunteer at the events.

    Call this laughable, it is just another nugget to prove my argument, where as i have seen none from Kary. Kary thinks if there is not gubmint statistics than the statement must be “racis” since people should not trust their observations and everyone who thinks otherwise is “racis”.

  169. 169
  170. 170
    sleepless says:

    This is a bit old, but it is from Realtor, so must be true (sarc):
    http://realtormag.realtor.org/for-brokers/network/article/2016/03/working-chinese-buyers

    What percentage of your deals come from Chinese clients?
    While statistics for the market at large show 7 percent of all sales in California are from international buyers, our sales are higher by approximately 10 percent. Buyers from mainland China, Hong Kong, and Taiwan made up 43 percent of international purchases in California in 2015.
    Realtors must be “rasis” too…

  171. 171
    sleepless says:

    Since Kary doesn’t bother to read the articles, i will post some “facts” from CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/16/chinas-real-estate-investors-on-a-200b-global-spending-spree.html
    Prominent commercial markets include Hong Kong, Australia, the U.K. and North America, particularly Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Francisco, Seattle, Toronto and Vancouver.
    Over the last decade, more than 400,00 Chinese invested the $500,000 to take advantage of the U.S. program.
    By sleepless @ 138:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 133:

    Same goes to other pristine locations like NYC, London, Sidney, etc. Yup, it is all imaginary because no one asked they to show their passports…

  172. 172

    By sleepless @ 167:

    Actually, Indians are too “poor” to afford Bellevue this is why they are migrating to the north – Bothell, Kenmore, etc.

    Wow, blatant racisim. Must be nice to be anonymousl so that you can spout your racist nonsense without consequence.

    [by me]But my core issue on this has been the blatant nonsense that someone can tell something specific about someone by their appearance or language used. There is a word describing such claims, and the word is racist.

    Here we go. I was waiting for your to bring up the “racis” card :). It must be “racis” because i don’t like it. The leftist brainwashed liberal argument.

    Please explain how it isn’t racist, rather than just making up nonsense arguments. I’ve specifically described how looking at someone and deciding by their skin color, race or language spoken and then deciding specific things about them is racist. Prove me wrong!

    The argument wasn’t about Chinese “illegally” buying up real estate in Northwest, but simply stating the fact.

    Nice strawman argument. No one has claimed they were illegally buying property. I just added in that you also could not tell whether someone was an illegal alien from their appearance.

    You claim yourself that there is no statistics that could disprove this claim and yet you argue with the people who actually live here and observe the demographics change. I shared a couple links here, bother to read them before replying.
    https://www.seattletimes.com/business/real-estate/seattle-becomes-no-1-us-market-for-chinese-homebuyers/
    http://www.macleans.ca/economy/economicanalysis/chinese-real-estate-investors-are-reshaping-the-market/
    Seattle is the closest to Vancouver what Chinese buyers can get, this is why Vancouver BC fever is spread to Seattle. This why Vancouver BC government wanted to chill the housing a bit and introduced the foreign tax. This why Seattle’s government considered to do the same. Whether such a tax is legal or not is different topic, but it doesn’t change the fact that Chinese cash is looking for places to hide, in Seattle metro is one of them.

    I’m not going to bother reading those links because they are undoubtedly the same ones posted here before which merely quote a real estate agent or two or some web search statistics. Those are not facts, those are proxies for facts and very poor proxies.

  173. 173

    By sleepless @ 171:

    Since Kary doesn’t bother to read the articles, i will post some “facts” from CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/16/chinas-real-estate-investors-on-a-200b-global-spending-spree.html
    Prominent commercial markets include Hong Kong, Australia, the U.K. and North America, particularly Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Francisco, Seattle, Toronto and Vancouver.
    Over the last decade, more than 400,00 Chinese invested the $500,000 to take advantage of the U.S. program.
    By sleepless @ 138:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 133:

    Same goes to other pristine locations like NYC, London, Sidney, etc. Yup, it is all imaginary because no one asked they to show their passports…

    RE: sleepless @ 170

    Wow, you actually posted something somewhat relevant and possibly even a real statistic. I don’t know if those numbers are right, but there are actual statistics on how many people take advantage of the $500,000+ to enter the US. That doesn’t directly relate to residential real estate of the type we are talking about, but it is a real statistic.

    Now maybe you’ll understand the difference. There are no statistics on the citizenship or residency of buyers of real estate in Washington state. Information in the press that tries to make such claims are typically based on questionable Realtor studies and quotes of real estate agents looking for publicity. There are statistics on how many people come into this country by various legal means. Those come from the government.

    But if you think you can tell which buyers are foreign buyers, please pick out the ones from yesterday that bought real estate in King County but are foreign buyers. Here’s the link to where you can search yesterday’s transactions: https://recordsearch.kingcounty.gov/LandmarkWeb

  174. 174

    By sleepless @ 171:

    Since Kary doesn’t bother to read the articles, i will post some “facts” from CNBC:
    https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/16/chinas-real-estate-investors-on-a-200b-global-spending-spree.html
    Prominent commercial markets include Hong Kong, Australia, the U.K. and North America, particularly Los Angeles, Miami, New York City, San Francisco, Seattle, Toronto and Vancouver.
    Over the last decade, more than 400,00 Chinese invested the $500,000 to take advantage of the U.S. program.

    My comment on this somehow got stuck in moderation, but that $500,000+ program actually has statistics. Unlike real estate purchases, the government does track that. It doesn’t directly pertain to the topic we’re talking about, but it is an area where there are real statistics.

    Try to stick to real statistics rather than articles based on Realtor surveys or quotes of real estate agents.

  175. 175
    greg says:

    RE: Eastsider @ 144

    cool story, but once again let me point out I was responding to a patently false claim made by sleepless…

    here i quote sleepless…
    “””” I have lived in the area for 10 years and i have seen the demographic change from mostly predominantly white population in Bellevue to mostly Chinese. “””

    that was factually wrong. in fact every wrong. there are less asian people than white people in Bellevue. And while the asian pop as a % is large there are more Indian asian people than Chinese asian people. and that is just a fact.

    Ref FOREIGN BORN residents of Bellevue wa.

    2016:

    13,098 Indian born
    07,230 chinese born ( about 11k if you include Taiwan)
    03,846 Korean born
    and a whole bunch of other countries in a long tail.

    USE YOUR HEADS FOLKS, Bellevue does not have more chinese people than white people , sleepless got it wrong, plain and simple.

    Is a wall of chinese money buying up bellevue? well i don’t know but then my comment was in response to a silly alarmist comment made by a poster on this thread.

  176. 176

    This just isn’t my day. Today on a neighborhood group someone posted: “Downtown has really cleaned up and there’s [sic] white ladies walking their dogs now.”

  177. 177
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 173:

    Wow, blatant racisim.

    What exactly is “racis” in my statement. You keep bringing race every time you fail to disprove someone. It is sooooo SJW of you :p.

    Nice strawman argument. No one has claimed they were illegally buying property. I just added in that you also could not tell whether someone was an illegal alien from their appearance.

    You clearly don’t understand a definition of straw man argument.

    Must be nice to be anonymousl so that you can spout your racist nonsense without consequence.

    So, you bringing the strawman argument now :)

    Try to stick to real statistics rather than articles based on Realtor surveys or quotes of real estate agents.

    Just like i said before, I, at least, bothered to find articles to support my thesis besides my own observation, which somehow are “racis” by your opinion meaning they are invalid. You, on the other hand, has failed to prove me wrong :p in any way other than claiming”show me the real statistic”, of which none exists and you know that. Keep looking for your gubmint statistics to tell you what is going on, while we all will keep laughing at you in the meantime.
    BTW, since your are a real estate agent and hasn’t proved anything, meaning your argument is just a “bogus” as the links i provided.

  178. 178
    Robert says:

    What neighborhood do you live in, Kary?

  179. 179
    uwp says:

    Is “racis” something different from racist?

  180. 180
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 175:

    This just isn’t my day. Today on a neighborhood group someone posted: “Downtown has really cleaned up and there’s [sic] white ladies walking their dogs now.”

    I guess, living in your own reality isn’t easy when you have to deal with the real world that is full of dangers and bad people… and facts that we don’t like or disagree with. It is easier to just pretend and ignore anything around you that doens’t fit your SJW agenda :) :) :)

  181. 181

    By sleepless @ 176:

    You clearly don’t understand a definition of straw man argument.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

    A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent’s argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent.[1] One who engages in this fallacy is said to be “attacking a straw man”.

    You clearly don’t understand what racist means. You can’t even spell it.

  182. 182
    sleepless says:

    By uwp @ 177:

    Is “racis” something different from racist?

    It is a bogus leftist term liberals use to describe anyone who disagrees with them. There is another popular one – “sexis” :) :) :)

  183. 183
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 179:

    By sleepless @ 176:

    You clearly don’t understand a definition of straw man argument.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Straw_man

    A straw man is a common form of argument and is an informal fallacy based on giving the impression of refuting an opponent’s argument, while actually refuting an argument that was not presented by that opponent.[1] One who engages in this fallacy is said to be “attacking a straw man”.

    You clearly don’t understand what racist means. You can’t even spell it.

    Must be nice to be anonymousl so that you can spout your racist nonsense without consequence.

    So, you bringing the strawman argument now :).

  184. 184

    By sleepless @ 180:

    By uwp @ 177:

    Is “racis” something different from racist?

    It is a bogus leftist term liberals use to describe anyone who disagrees with them. There is another popular one – “sexis” :) :) :)

    So you’re using bogus terms to refute arguments rather than actually trying to refute an argument? That explains a lot.

    Let’s keep this simple. Please explain how claiming to determine someone’s citizenship or country of origin from their appearance isn’t racist. No links not articles, no stupid spelling of words. Just come up with an argument.

  185. 185

    RE: sleepless @ 181 – You really are dense. How is pointing out the fact that you are making a racist comment somehow a strawman argument? The proper response would have been to explain how your comment somehow wasn’t racist.

    But to flush this out further, if I was anonymous I’d probably be willing to let the racist comments on this site slide. But because I’m not anonymous I feel it important to counter them whenever I see them for fear someone might think I too a racist due to my participation on this site. Guilt by association is the concern.

    You, on the other hand, can make as many racist comments as you want, without consequence, because you are anonymous. That was my point.

  186. 186
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 179:

    By sleepless @ 176:

    You clearly don’t understand what racist means. You can’t even spell it.

    Racism is the belief in the superiority of one race over another, which often results in discrimination and prejudice towards people based on their race or ethnicity.

    I have never claimed Chinese are “bad” or i hate Chinese, i state the fact that Chinese have the largest number of oligarchs who are buying up the west coast. You should probably look at Chinese housing bubble and ghost cities. This mania is spread around the world where hot Chinese money chase scarce resource. I make it about economics, you make it about race. China is also not a race, it is a country, this is why i explicitly made a separation between Indians and Chinese because i was referring to the country residents, not Asian race.
    You clearly don’t understand what racism means and just keep making fool of yourself, you are good at it.

  187. 187
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 183:

    RE: sleepless @ 181 – if I was anonymous I’d probably be willing to let the racist comments on this site slide. But because I’m not anonymous I feel it important to counter them whenever I see them for fear someone might think I too a racist due to my participation on this site…

    So, you are a SJW :), it explains your nonsense. Also, i care not whether you are anonymous or not. I don’t know if you name or picture are real, nor i bother. Significant majority of this forum are anonymous, so what?
    On the other head, your judgment of what is racist and what is not doen’t go beyond your opinion. Just because you said it is “racis”, doesn’t make it so. You entitled to your opinion.

  188. 188
    ess says:

    By Kmac @ 163:

    RE: ess @ 157
    Do you think having housing prices outstripping wages is a sustainable event long term and still have a vibrant middle class?

    Although wages are not keeping up with house prices in San Jose, demand apparently is still outstripping supply, as witnessed by the 26% increase in prices YOY. Someone has money to not only buy in San Jose which is increasing prices, and apparently rising prices in the United State’s most priciest housing market is not a deterrence (so far).

    The percentage of home ownership has increased over the past few years as a result of the recovery from the housing down turn of the last decade. So while there may be difficulty in purchasing real estate in some of these very expensive areas, as a whole home ownership is once again inching up. A recent article in the WSJ indicated that millennials are finally getting into the home ownership act.

    The cities listed are the most expensive cities in the United States for owning a residence. Housing prices are not nearly as expensive throughout most of the US. These expensive prices appear to be most prevalent in the West Coast cities, as well as some of the cities back east. There are many cities in the US where housing is still quite reasonable.

    And in those expensive cities, as in the trendy areas of Seattle, prices tend to be very expensive, and less so in the surrounding outer areas. For example, one may raid their entire bank account as well as borrow from their future inheritance to buy a co-op in the middle of Manhattan, NYC, but one can obtain fairly reasonably priced housing both in New Jersey, north of NYC, and in Connecticut. I have friends and relatives that live in all of those places, and their house prices and values (not taxes) are lower than even our suburban prices. I was actually quite surprised as to either how much they had purchased their residence, or what the current value was. Compared to even our suburbs – quite reasonable, and within commuting distance of NYC.

  189. 189
    sleepless says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 183 – BTW, your original post was about the hype and speculation. My post has never been about race until you made it all bout race. I was talking about Chinese hosing bubble that is spread outside of china and creates ghost cities in Canada, Australia and now here, in Bellevue. Of course, i have no gubmint issued proof of that, i just do my own observations that happens to be “racis” even though majority of the real estate “experts” agree with me. I guess, you are the smartest guy on the west coast that knows something no one else does…

  190. 190

    By sleepless @ 184:

    Racism is the belief in the superiority of one race over another, which often results in discrimination and prejudice towards people based on their race or ethnicity..

    I tend to focus more on the discrimination and prejudice part, and assume there is a feeling of superiority if there is discrimination or prejudice. If someone mentioned several factors that they thought would have a positive impact on real estate prices, and one of them was the inflow of money from foreign countries, I wouldn’t consider that racist in any way. There’s no judgment there as to whether that’s good or bad, only a noting that it would have a positive impact on prices.

    But in the context raised on this site, with the exception of maybe those like Erik who likes higher price trends regardless of the cause, the talk of Chinese money is generally viewed as a bad thing, and in fact the imposition of discriminatory taxes often comes up as a topic–you mentioned it yourself with regard to Vancouver BC.

    But even without getting to the second part, the idea that a non-citizen should somehow be treated differently with regard to an otherwise legal activity, that is an argument of superiority. The suggestion is that they have less of a right to buy property here than others. Now maybe technically speaking that’s nationalism, but that has not been the focus here where references are made to census data and looking at students in schools. The focus is clearly on race.

    And remember, real estate has quite a history in this area where racial covenants cover many of the core parts of local cities and towns. Clearly those who caused the documents to be recorded intended to discriminate, and most likely it’s because they felt superior. So I think it’s a very long stretch to suggest that focusing on Chinese money and concern they are buying up too much property is not somehow racist. It’s “us versus them” and those positions are almost by definition based on feelings of superiority.

  191. 191

    By sleepless @ 187:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 183 – BTW, your original post was about the hype and speculation. My post has never been about race until you made it all bout race. I was talking about Chinese hosing bubble that is spread outside of china and creates ghost cities in Canada, Australia and now here, in Bellevue. Of course, i have no gubmint issued proof of that, i just do my own observations that happens to be “racis” even though majority of the real estate “experts” agree with me. I guess, you are the smartest guy on the west coast that knows something no one else does…

    As to the flow of money, my point is simply that there are no valid stats. That you have to put real estate experts in quotes sort of indicates what the value of their opinions are. I’m not denying that there is foreign money flowing into the country and into the area. I’m just saying that you cannot quantify it, and therefore cannot determine its effect (except that it drives up prices to some unknown extent).

    In a way it’s sort of like short sales before the NWMLS started making a separate field for them. There was a year or two where they were impacting the market, but it was impossible to know how much until the time it became a separate field.

  192. 192
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: sleepless @ 185

    If you think it is merely opinion, you obviously don’t understand the role of real estate agents in insuring fair housing practices.

    When people ask why we even need agents in this Country, my number one answer is to prevent discrimination. We do it all the time. It comes up more than you might think.

  193. 193
    Blake says:

    RE: sleepless @ 185
    Wow…off track a bit? I’m glad Kary has been trying to explain this “racis” sh!t, but I doubt it is sinking in. Racism is associated with feelings of racial superiority, but more common racism is making generalized statements about a person based on their skin color or ethnic background. Indians are like (this)… Chinese are like (this)… etc. (btw: India and China are VERY diverse countries.!!)

    This is a racist statement:
    “Actually, Indians are too “poor” to afford Bellevue this is why they are migrating to the north – Bothell, Kenmore, etc.”
    (It is also idiotic… many racist bigots also happen to be idiots, I’ve found. Not ALL of course!)
    You mean the senior engineers and managers at MSFT, AMZN and GOOG from India are poor? Seriously? Chinese are rich, but Indians are poor?

    So is this:
    “Downtown has really cleaned up and there’s [sic] white ladies walking their dogs now.”
    My former neighbors were cooking up crack, stealing and threatening the neighborhood until they got busted. And yes they were white and walked their dogs!

    Let’s bring this back to bubble-related talk…
    An unsustainable bubble is largely related to speculative money that is “hot” and can disappear quickly. So if foreigners (!!) are getting jobs at MSFT and buying houses in Bellevue, big deal. Yes, they drive up demand, but that is real demand for a place to live. If the demand comes from “hot” money or speculative investments from Blackrock, flippers, or airbnb’ers, then you should worry about the potential for that money to bid prices up too high, then sell quickly to take their profits or cut their losses. The money can come from China, New York or wherever. I’m more interested in finding out how many houses are sitting empty or bought as rentals/investments. I think Vancouver has some 70,000 at this point and there are an estimated 1.3 million across Canada. I’m not sure if there are any good estimates for the US.

  194. 194
    Blake says:

    btw: I have to add that I value these unfiltered blogs/comments. I really do. All the MSM is sanitized and only in these unfiltered forums do we get an idea of what people truly think! And most people censor themselves, but with a little anonymity they can let it all hang out!

    It’s ugly, but reality tends to be that way. The truth is stranger (uglier) than fiction!

  195. 195

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 190:

    RE: sleepless @ 185

    If you think it is merely opinion, you obviously don’t understand the role of real estate agents in insuring fair housing practices.

    When people ask why we even need agents in this Country, my number one answer is to prevent discrimination. We do it all the time. It comes up more than you might think.

    After a long lapse, I’m again reading the book Weapons of Math Destruction. In that book the author explains how some employers filter out all identifying information of the applicant so as to avoid discrimination and bias.

    I almost wish that were possible with real estate, and I do wish that “love letters” were illegal. But as to name, as I noted recently the seller does have the right to check out a buyer’s ability to get financing, particularly given our rather one-sided financing contingency form.

    Fortunately, I’ve never been in the situation where a seller wanted to discriminate on the basis of race or other protected class.

  196. 196
    Toad37 says:

    Amazon shot up to $1500 per share on super thin volume. A trip back to $500 could be very fast if the bears come out. Even $500 is seems frothy… $1000, then 750, then 500… the market likes big round numbers.

    https://content.screencast.com/users/toad379304/folders/Jing/media/a5b8ab35-dc7f-4090-80e0-cb0461b5bb3c/2018-02-13_1601.png

  197. 197
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 188:

    By sleepless @ 184:

    I tend to focus more on the discrimination and prejudice part, and assume there is a feeling of superiority if there is discrimination or prejudice.

    Now, you are just making stuff up.

    But in the context raised on this site, with the exception of maybe those like Erik who likes higher price trends regardless of the cause, the talk of Chinese money is generally viewed as a bad thing, and in fact the imposition of discriminatory taxes often comes up as a topic–you mentioned it yourself with regard to Vancouver BC.

    Housing prices going up is a bad thing, just like any other form of inflation such as food, clothing, medical care, education, etc. Housing is a necessity. High housing prices create more problems, but i don’t blame Chinese investors for that, you missed the whole point, no surprise here. I merely mention they contribute their share just like the Blackstone alike corps. I stated this as a fact that you refute to admit and keep bringing the racism instead of a valid argument. Who do you think the “cash” buyers represent? They are retail investors, not the corm investors. I wanted to make that distinction.

    But even without getting to the second part, the idea that a non-citizen should somehow be treated differently with regard to an otherwise legal activity, that is an argument of superiority.

    You just keep making stuff up, this is hilarious. And then you accuse me of bringing a strawman argument. Try to actually think about what i wrote, not to see that you want to see in your delusional world.

    The suggestion is that they have less of a right to buy property here than others.

    Again, you just keep making stuff up. Does it hurt to think that if the Chinese buyers dry up it will hurt your income? Now i see where all that anger comes from. Please read above, i already addressed that in my comment.

    Now maybe technically speaking that’s nationalism, but that has not been the focus here where references are made to census data and looking at students in schools.

    Kary, you can actually read now :) :) :)… And probably use some common sense…

    The focus is clearly on race.

    It clearly wasn’t, you just keep making stuff up again. The focus was on Chinese origin of the investors.

    And remember, real estate has quite a history in this area where racial covenants cover many of the core parts of local cities and towns. Clearly those who caused the documents to be recorded intended to discriminate, and most likely it’s because they felt superior.

    You clearly have issues with some “history” which has nothing to do the argument. Keep bringing it up, I have yet to see you prove me wrong and bring at least one fact to disprove me.

    So I think it’s a very long stretch to suggest that focusing on Chinese money and concern they are buying up too much property is not somehow racist.

    China is known for bubble, whether it is their stock market bubble, or crypto market bubble, that is, BTW, is primarily driven by Chinese miners (oops, too “rasis”, my bad…) or the biggest of them all – the real estate bubble. You can live your denial and claim otherwise, i guess, google search is no help here…

  198. 198
    sleepless says:

    By Blake @ 191:

    RE: sleepless @ 185
    This is a racist statement:
    “Actually, Indians are too “poor” to afford Bellevue this is why they are migrating to the north – Bothell, Kenmore, etc.”
    (It is also idiotic… many racist bigots also happen to be idiots, I’ve found. Not ALL of course!)
    You mean the senior engineers and managers at MSFT, AMZN and GOOG from India are poor? Seriously? Chinese are rich, but Indians are poor?

    You clearly have no idea what i was talking about. By saying Indians were “poor” i was trying to address the Asian argument where the increased number of Asians in the area (see link above) are not due to Indian Asians which are mostly work in tech (Amazon, MSFT, etc). I quoted the word “poor” to make a point that they are not millionaire oligarchs, but rather regular upper middle class and cannot afford pristine area like West Bellevue. I am in tech, Principal level SWE, and i am too “poor” to buy in Bellevue, this is why i rent. Indians Asians are not buying west Bellevue because tech doesn’t pay high enuf salaries to do so, thus “poor”. Most Indians i work with either bought long time ago or buy in more remote areas like Bothell, Eastern Redmond, Eastern part of Sammamish. I hope this clarifies the argument.

  199. 199

    RE: sleepless @ 195 – Whatever. I’m not making anything up, but go ahead and dismiss arguments you are incapable of refuting. That doesn’t change the fact that you can’t refute the arguments, and you know what that means, right?

    Your problem may be that you’re equating superior with genetically superior, or some such thing. There is no such limitation.

    China is known for bubble, whether it is their stock market bubble, or crypto market bubble, that is, BTW, is primarily driven by Chinese miners (oops, too “rasis”, my bad…) or the biggest of them all – the real estate bubble. You can live your denial and claim otherwise, . . ..

    As to this last paragraph, that is making stuff up. I’m not ignoring what China is or the problems it has. You might want to re-read my post 141 where I mentioned reasons why money might flow into this country. I didn’t specifically mention China there, because what I wrote could apply to a lot of countries, but all of those things could easily apply to China (including Hong Kong).

  200. 200
    sleepless says:

    By Kary L. Krismer @ 197:

    RE: sleepless @ 195 – Whatever. I’m not making anything up, but go ahead and dismiss arguments you are incapable of refuting. That doesn’t change the fact that you can’t refute the arguments, and you know what that means, right?

    I, at leased, bothered to provide my own observations for which i was called “racis” with links to the mainstream fake new resources to prove my point. You, on the other hand, only bothered call others “racis” because it doesn’t fit your leftist agenda. I have yet to see you refuting any of my arguments, besides calling me “racis” which you always do anyone who disagrees with you.

    I didn’t specifically mention China there, because what I wrote could apply to a lot of countries

    Of course you didn’t, you don’t want to be called “racis” even when stating the obvious. Don’t bite the hand that feed you.

  201. 201
    Blake says:

    Kary… your leftist agenda has finally been exposed!

    I also learned in this thread that George W Bush was a progressive!?

  202. 202
    sleepless says:

    By Blake @ 199:

    Kary… your leftist agenda has finally been exposed!

    I also learned in this thread that George W Bush was a progressive!?

    They all are :) :) :). DemoCRIPS and ReBLOODlicans are just the two sides of the same coin :) :) :). When it comes to Kery, he only believes the gubmint numbers and anyone who doesn’t have them is “raaaaceeeeeeezzzz” :)

  203. 203
    Blurtman says:

    RE: Blake @ 191 – Racism and claims thereof are the third rail.

    -ism definition: a distinctive practice, system, or philosophy, typically a political ideology or an artistic movement.

    And so racism can be nothing more than the philosophy of race itself. But the common definition is not that.

    The very definition of racism is filled with illogic and contradiction.

    Black pride is OK. White pride, controversial.

    We have defined a group of diverse people based upon colonization and exploitation by the same European country, Spain. In fact, sheeple consider Hispanic to be a race when it is nothing of the sort. Nor is Latino. But there is no Anglic group that would include the Irish and folks from India.

    Elizabeth Warren is pilloried for essentially being an undocumented American Indian, not able to show proof of being on a tribal register, while Indians from south of the border are held to no such standard.

    This type of nonsense is propagated for reasons of self interest and politics. And it will hopefully finally be a nail in the Democrat party who thrive on divisive identity politics and approved racism, i.e., race based preference policies like affirmative action.

    I still recall Pramila Jayapal running on how she helped everyone but white males. But that is OK because.

  204. 204
    Blake says:

    Whatever blurtman… my key point was simply; “common racism is making generalized statements about a person based on their skin color or ethnic background.”

    Yes, many black people are racist and there is a lot of racism within countries like India and China towards Indians and Chinese… usually the poorest. I worked with a fellow from China who had some Korean blood and he described the way he was treated to me…. horrible!

    As I wrote in a previous thread: It’s all about power… always is! Who has the power… and abuses their power?

    (And if any of you pinheads think that the US is “on the edge” of Sharia Law or Black Power is going to kill all whities soon you ought to have your heads examined. )

  205. 205
    Erik says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 188
    Heck yah, I want more money in my pocket. I could easily take Seattle real estate money and move somewhere better. I think gay people are moving to West Seattle, so I bought real estate here. Gay people often lead to higher real estate prices, so I support that. I’m not trying to save the world, but rather save myself.

    You can’t control anything but yourself folks. Make as much money as you can and have as much fun as possible! Stop worrying about what everyone else is doing, you have no control of that.

  206. 206

    RE: sleepless @ 198 – Whatever. I’m going to give up on you because you never say anything even semi-coherent or responsive. But yes, I was “afraid” to mention “China” because I’m afraid to bite the hand the feeds me. That’s funny! Rather obviously you don’t know anything about me.

    But I’ll ask you again, please explain how claiming to determine someone’s citizenship or country of origin from their appearance isn’t racist. No links not articles, no stupid spelling of words. Just come up with an argument. You’ve yet to come up with a single argument, but that doesn’t stop you from typing.

  207. 207

    Here’s confirmation of something I suggested in the past. Part of the reason for the increase in real estate taxes is the transition from one system to fund schools to another. The old system levies are still in effect as the new system kicks in. Thus at least the Pierce County Assessor is claiming that 2018 will be a high water mark for taxes.

    http://komonews.com/news/local/sticker-shock-property-taxes-jump

  208. 208
    Kmac says:

    RE: sleepless @ 200
    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 204

    You two are giving me a space needle sized headache.

    sleepless- you have made your point
    and
    Kary- you feed right into it. Do you own this website?

    Ughh

  209. 209
    David says:

    If you want some racism, go to China – the Chinese aren’t politically correct AT ALL. They would hold most of the virtue signaling up above in absolute contempt. Then call you a ‘white monkey’ and beat your arse if say something bad about China!!

    After that, you could head over to a restaurant specializing in golden retriever BBQ – which is delicious by the way.

  210. 210
    Blake says:

    RE: David @ 207
    Good point David… China is the place to be! Anti-PC. They combine the best of capitalism and communist, one-party dictatorship! And by best I mean worst… like a bad nightmare.

    It’d be great to live in an anti-PC country where men are free to denigrate women and minorities with abandon… ah freedom!! (Didn’t you write earlier about what a bright future China has?)

  211. 211
    David says:

    RE: Blake @ 208 – China HAS a bright future in the present – depending on where you are. They don’t have minorities other than people who look Chinese to me but supposedly are not. Women have a high status in China as well, You leave the State alone and the State will leave you alone.

    As the ex-pats say: “Freest place on Earth. Unless you mess with the Government.”

    Also, if you do drugs and they catch you – DiRT. Drugs are not an issue including marijuana.

    Homeless? Nope – you just starve to death – so everyone works.

    Also, China has shockingly few police.

    They have been pressuring foreigners to depart the country now for a couple of years however. They don’t want us culturally tainting their country unforunately.

  212. 212
    David says:

    RE: Blake @ 208 – I’d also point out there was unrestrained gleeful celebration about the death of caucasian people across the USA prior to Trump being elected.

    Other countries have taken note of and instituted policies to prevent that sort of thing happening there.

    It should also be noted that Barack Obama’s portrait has just been painted by a guy famous for paintings of a ‘minority’ beheading white women.

  213. 213

    By Kmac @ 206:

    Kary- you feed right into it.

    You have a valid point there. Arguing over whether racist comments are racist is sort of pointless. And it detracts from my main point which there are no valid statistics to quantify the number of foreign-funded purchases or the markets affected. The same could be said about tech-employee purchases of real estate. If done as a Venn diagram those would overlap to some extent, but the point is we cannot quantify either and thus don’t know how much either is driving up prices, but they are both undoubtedly contributing.

    But none of that stops people complaining about others moving into an area, whether they be foreign or techies or both.

  214. 214
    wreckingbull says:

    By Blurtman @ 201:

    RE: Blake @ 191 – Racism and claims thereof are the third rail.

    This type of nonsense is propagated for reasons of self interest and politics. And it will hopefully finally be a nail in the Democrat party who thrive on divisive identity politics and approved racism, i.e., race based preference policies like affirmative action.

    I think this is a pretty good prediction. Note this NYT article written by Ayaan Hirsi Ali:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/24/opinion/southern-poverty-law-center-liberals-islam.html

    For more evidence, look at the exploding popularity of people such as Dave Rubin and Sam Harris, two rather liberal individuals who have called B.S. on identity politics and are turning traditional left and right labels on their head. We are seeing the beginning of the end.

  215. 215

    Here’s a second article in as many days that mentions the transition issues of high real estate taxes and the McClearly fix.

    http://crosscut.com/2018/02/property-taxes-soar-seattlelites-stop-new-tax-levys-washington/

    Was the Seattle Times not mentioning this to create more hype (or ignorance), or was I just missing it?

  216. 216
    Kmac says:

    Pay your higher taxes and you will like it.
    If not, you’re just a complainer.

    After all- you voted for it!

  217. 217
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    ess @ 186:

    “one can obtain fairly reasonably priced housing both in New Jersey, north of NYC, and in Connecticut. I have friends and relatives that live in all of those places, and their house prices and values (not taxes) are lower than even our suburban prices. I was actually quite surprised as to either how much they had purchased their residence, or what the current value was. Compared to even our suburbs – quite reasonable, and within commuting distance of NYC.”

    Take it from one who has owned property in NYC and suburbs, this ain’t true. You have to go 60, 80 miles from the city before there are “cheap” towns that aren’t total dives. If you buy a house in Mountlake Terrace or LFP or any of a number of N Seattle burbs, you will come out hundreds of thousands of dollars ahead of someone buying a house in an equivalent NYC burb (and you will live much further from NYC and have a hellish commute). Nice burbs start at $600k with debilitating property taxes. Connecticut is a little better but the commute is unworkable for mere mortals.

  218. 218
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 213

    Excellent article. I’ve been seeing a lot of that “Just Say No” in the school levy vote topics. In my local groups.

    I find myself wondering if pending sales will be impacted by the tax hike becoming reality mid escrow. Could push some borderline qualified people over the edge.

  219. 219
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    Last time NYC was cheap Seattle was cheap too. I remember looking at a cute little house in Fremont in the $400s several years ago, but instead I moved to New York and bought a rowhouse in the $600s. I looked this weekend and my old house in NY is now worth about $1.2M. The Fremont house has had similar performance.

    My brother was trying to shop for a house in Bronx (!) or north NYC burbs last month. Budget $450k. There were essentially no options in safe, convenient areas. That budget would do fine in the north burbs here. (And he’d make more money.)

  220. 220
    Ross says:

    By David @ 209:

    RE: Blake @ 208 – China HAS a bright future in the present – depending on where you are. They don’t have minorities other than people who look Chinese to me but supposedly are not. Women have a high status in China as well, You leave the State alone and the State will leave you alone.

    As the ex-pats say: “Freest place on Earth. Unless you mess with the Government.”

    Also, if you do drugs and they catch you – DiRT. Drugs are not an issue including marijuana.

    Homeless? Nope – you just starve to death – so everyone works.

    Also, China has shockingly few police.

    They have been pressuring foreigners to depart the country now for a couple of years however. They don’t want us culturally tainting their country unforunately.

    You have a somewhat naive picture of China.

    There’s a variety of ill treated minorities in China, including: Tibetans, uighurs, blacks (who are common in certain cities like Guangzhou), Mongolians and basically anyone who is not ethnically han. Worse, the society doesn’t really even admit that racism exists, though it is endemic.

    There are plenty of homeless people and beggars, though there is little safety net.

    Police presence is massive in china. In big cities there can be police stationed at nearly every major intersection. Also there are local police bikes and huts everywhere. In a sort of friendly, you like the state way.

    Drugs are less common and quite underground, though Opium, Meth and some other drugs certainly exist.

    Gun ownership is extremely low; if you will be robbed on the street it would be at knife point. But anyways, violent crime rates are way lower generally.

    There’s a certain tension of conformity that you find in many communist/authoritarian regimes, though it is below the surface.

    The culture is definitely misogynistic, and while a women can run her own business, there are massive social pressures for a woman to marry by around 25/26 and immediately produce children.

    It’s a mixed bag, certainly not a paradise.

  221. 221

    By ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 216:

    I find myself wondering if pending sales will be impacted by the tax hike becoming reality mid escrow. Could push some borderline qualified people over the edge.

    Good question. I wonder if lenders even follow up on that sort of thing.

    Probably good agent practice to update any active listings ASAP after the new numbers are known because a buyer could also find that information out on their own during the inspection period and back out. Alternatively if past inspection they could feed the new number to their lender so that they might not still qualify for financing.

  222. 222
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 216 – What is killing me is not levies, but massive bond measures. They knocked down three perfectly good schools and replaced them with very high-end structures, complete with fireplaces in the libraries, hardwood inlays, and computer controlled electro-pneumatic weight rooms. I will be paying for this for nearly 20 more years, or until I move, whichever comes first . I’ll let you guess what comes first :)

    When I was young, my school had painted cinderblock, steel weights, and damn good teachers. Was that not good enough?

  223. 223
    Blake says:

    By David @ 210:

    RE: Blake @ 208 – I’d also point out there was unrestrained gleeful celebration about the death of caucasian people across the USA prior to Trump being elected.

    You’ve got my interest… Please elaborate. Specifically WHICH “caucasian people” died and WHO celebrated?

  224. 224
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: Kary L. Krismer @ 218

    The lender will know as impounds and payment will be adjusted. S-Crow likely the best source for this info. I’m pretty sure escrow will make the adjustment and it will come up on the final resolution of the closing statement between escrow and the lender. So they could be very late in the day failures.

    For pre-approvals in place, but buyer not yet in escrow, the buyer’s agent should update the pre-approval after the new taxes become known. Supposedly that will happen by Friday.

  225. 225

    RE: ess @ 186
    Los Angeles Suburbs Same Story

    The mountains are like 100 miles away….plenty of desert land 10-15 miles east of LA and yes, cheaper than Seattle prices too, bigger lots.

  226. 226
    ess says:

    By Wile E. Millenial @ 215:

    ess @ 186:

    “one can obtain fairly reasonably priced housing both in New Jersey, north of NYC, and in Connecticut. I have friends and relatives that live in all of those places, and their house prices and values (not taxes) are lower than even our suburban prices. I was actually quite surprised as to either how much they had purchased their residence, or what the current value was. Compared to even our suburbs – quite reasonable, and within commuting distance of NYC.”

    Take it from one who has owned property in NYC and suburbs, this ain’t true. You have to go 60, 80 miles from the city before there are “cheap” towns that aren’t total dives. If you buy a house in Mountlake Terrace or LFP or any of a number of N Seattle burbs, you will come out hundreds of thousands of dollars ahead of someone buying a house in an equivalent NYC burb (and you will live much further from NYC and have a hellish commute). Nice burbs start at $600k with debilitating property taxes. Connecticut is a little better but the commute is unworkable for mere mortals.

    This may be true, but for many – 60 -80 miles is commuting distance for more and more people on both coasts. as well as in the Puget Sound area. There are actually daily commuter buses that travel between a number of Philadelphia neighborhoods and Manhattan for commuters. And the price of Philadelphia real estate has been quite reasonable, although it too is starting to take off.

    My friend has a beautiful house in Connecticut on one acre of land in a wealthy town whose scenic beauty and charm puts most towns around the Puget Sound to shame. His house has two issues that is keeping his real estate from appreciating in this current round. One is that Connecticut is facing severe budgetary issues and taxing policies that are encouraging both business and wealthy individuals to relocate out of state. The other is that he does have a significant drive to the suburban commuter train that travels to Manhattan. In the greater NYC area, living near a commuter train does increase the value of one’s property, as it will do so in the Puget Sound area. What amazes both of us is at present his bigger house in a much fancier area is now worth less than my smaller house on just a regular lot in South Snohomish County. That is a change over the past decade.

    My other friend and her husband relocated to a decent suburban town in NJ in a modestly priced house. They are within walking distance to a Manhattan commuter train (one hour) as well as a ferry that travels to lower Manhattan. Before they bought their detached single family house, they resided ina a beautiful 1100 sq foot townhouse that sold for less than 250K a few years ago after some difficulty and price reductions.

    No doubt about it, housing in Manhattan, and single family houses in some of the outer NYC boroughs is going to set one back a significant sum. On the other hand, townhouses and co-ops are much more “affordable”, and many are within hailing distance of NYC. And apparently single family houses can be purchased in the area for a “reasonable amount”- although as you say, a greater distance out.

    There are more and more Puget Sound individuals whose commute is longer than an hour, as to both distance and traffic issues. So the same pattern is emerging here as housing in the immediate Seattle area is much more expensive, and those who can’t afford are simply moving further out. And that “further out” is really getting to be “further out”.

    As to debilitating property taxes, Puget Sound legislatures, voters, with an occasional boost from the courts are all doing their best to mirror the high property taxes so prevalent on the east coast.

  227. 227

    RE: wreckingbull @ 219
    When I Went to High School in Seattle Area

    We had half the teachers per student [half the property tax costs] but still graduated almost everyone. We even had study halls back then….you younger folks don’t know what that means. Our math and science grades were not based mainly on homework like today…it was 100% TESTS. A 9th grade level GED substitute was something only a small percentage of derelicts and convicts got at graduation…now its a main graduation method for our high schools….pathetic!

    And our loser school system wants even more money? LOL

  228. 228
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    No question Philly is a great value, if you like the city. The quality of life is a bit lower but you can get a great home for a reasonable price, and live among the hipsters without having to be wealthy.

  229. 229
    wreckingbull says:

    RE: ess @ 223 – You keep using the term ‘hailing distance’. As in a 25 watt VHF radio? Are you sure you don’t mean ‘soul-crushing commute’ distance?

  230. 230
    Minnie says:

    RE: Wile E. Millenial @ 215

    Nice ‘burbs here start at 600K too…depending on the size of the home. $600K might get you a 1400 sf home in LFP in OK condition, but it will be on a busier street and no views. And the yard probably needs a ton of work.

  231. 231
    Wile E. Millenial says:

    I have friends who commuted to Wall Street from Philly and the Poconos. They broke after two years and moved back to overpriced homes in Jersey. I commuted from Jersey and frankly that’s intolerable too. Seattle is so, so much easier.

  232. 232
    N says:

    Food for thought – Could we see Mortgage rates approaching 7% again.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/12/four-rate-hikes-in-2018-as-us-national-debt-will-spike/

    And if 2019 also sees four rate hikes, those mortgage rates are likely to climb above 7% by the end of 2019. No one is prepared for this. Four rate hikes a year don’t sound like much – until it starts adding up.

  233. 233
    ess says:

    By N @ 229:

    Food for thought – Could we see Mortgage rates approaching 7% again.

    https://wolfstreet.com/2018/02/12/four-rate-hikes-in-2018-as-us-national-debt-will-spike/

    And if 2019 also sees four rate hikes, those mortgage rates are likely to climb above 7% by the end of 2019. No one is prepared for this. Four rate hikes a year don’t sound like much – until it starts adding up.

    This is why the purchase of real estate, especially when financing the endeavor, should involve an analysis more detailed than just the price. Yes the price may drop 5% in the following year which may warrant waiting, but that drop may be offset by dramatic increases in the cost of borrowing money. While 5-6% mortgage rates for a thirty year mortgage appear high to the short term observer, those rates are still modest in comparison to the traditional rate of mortgage rates over the past 35 – 50 years.

  234. 234
    Blake says:

    Meanwhile, for most Americans…
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-14/inflation-takes-big-toll-on-americans-pay
    “Inflation just took the biggest bite out of Americans’ paychecks in almost five years. Real average hourly earnings of production and non-supervisory workers, who make up more than 80 percent of employees at companies, fell 0.5 percent in January, according to government figures released on Wednesday. It marked the fifth decline in the last six months and could go a long way in explaining the abrupt slowdown in January retail sales, and why fourth-quarter credit-card debt registered the second-largest percentage increase since 2007.”

    Yet the party goes on at Wall St and the big casino.
    Unfortunately the Fed is going to pull the punch bowl away… soon!

  235. 235
    ronp says:

    Wow, there are some real idiots commenting here now. Terrible.

  236. 236
    ARDELL DellaLoggia says:

    RE: ronp @ 232

    Forever talking about King County as if it’s one cohesive and equally moving market is just as goofy as talking about Philly and OMG commuting from The Poconos to Wall Street.

  237. 237
    ronp says:

    RE: ARDELL DellaLoggia @ 233 – Well, now we match the rest of the internet! :)

  238. 238
    redmondjp says:

    RE: ronp @ 232 – Ron – our better, progressive world dictates that we are tolerant of diverse expressions of thought.

  239. 239
    Blake says:

    By redmondjp @ 235:

    RE: ronp @ 232 – Ron – our better, progressive world dictates that we are tolerant of diverse expressions of thought.

    Oh what BS! I’m progressive/leftist and I have no tolerance for outright LIES and Racism… obviously! All this horrible crap that Trump has stirred up and exploited must be countered. It’s poisoning the country… and this forum as well!!

  240. 240
    David says:

    They passed the tax levy in my area. These education funding claims are a scam.

    How did Southerners put men on the moon if education funding was the determinant of the outcome?

  241. 241
    S-Crow says:

    Quick Drive by comment:

    Snohomish County School District Levy Prop. 1 currently is failing: Prop 1 covers educational programs & Operations replacement Levy.
    LEVY YES 4,559 48.74%
    LEVY NO 4,795 51.26%

    It appears that the property tax increases are becoming burdensome. I presume that many have yet to fully appreciate the full impact of their property tax increases due this year because they have not checked online (King Co. is still not posted publicly) or have yet to receive, but will receive, either their new property tax bill in the mail or their lender will contact them because there will be an escrow shortage. An escrow shortage with a mortgage is when the lender becomes aware the amount collected as part of the monthly payment will fall short of the annual taxes due. To make up the short fall lenders will increase the monthly amount due (probably most popular option for borrowers) or pay the total shortfall amount up front.

    Approx. 23% voter turnout. Pretty lousy. My guess is that once the public becomes aware of the tax increases turnout next time will be higher.

  242. 242
    sleepless says:

    By Blake @ 231:

    Unfortunately the Fed is going to pull the punch bowl away… soon!

    Why is it unfortunate, I would argue it is a quite opposite? And i will only believe it when i see it :). FED talks a lot, i have seen much action yet as the rates are still extremely low by historical measures.

  243. 243
    sleepless says:

    By Blake @ 236:

    By redmondjp @ 235
    Oh what BS! I’m progressive/leftist and I have no tolerance for outright LIES and Racism… obviously! All this horrible crap that Trump has stirred up and exploited must be countered. It’s poisoning the country… and this forum as well!!

    Most left/progressive and often right/conservatives both demand freedom of speech when they need to express themselves. But when they disagree with something, it is always hate crime, racism, sexism, etc-ism and needs to be banned. You either have free speech or you don’t, there is no “between”. Now run to your safe place and hide :).

  244. 244
    Minnie says:

    RE: S-Crow @ 238

    Thanks for the info, S-Crow! I really enjoy your posts.

    My thoughts (ramblings)
    1) I don’t love the increase in property taxes, but I also realize that we don’t have state income taxes, and I think from where I stand, I’d be hit much harder in state taxes than my prop taxes. Perhaps that’s too simplistic.

    2) School levys. Oh boy. I think that good schools are directly tied to good neighborhoods, and places where people ultimately prefer to live. Bellevue, for example. Mercer Island. Northshore Schools, Shoreline Schools. Woodinville – it’s kind of in the boonies but they have great schools so property values are high. Bothell, there are 2 school districts dividing it and – guess what…the part in the good district is more expensive. Seattle I can’t figure out because it’s one school district yet there are still “good schools” and “bad schools”. My coworkers who live in Seattle all pretty much send their kids to private school. Very strange…I don’t have kids so I can’t comment but even when buying our first house we paid attention to the local schools.

    So it seems that Snohomish, Kent and Tacoma (which I heard was failing), that might be a short-sighted vote. But again, perhaps that’s too simplistic and there’s more to it. I’d love to hear opinions and observations.

  245. 245
    Kmac says:

    RE: sleepless @ 240

    Yes- freedom of speech
    So many act like they have a right to not be offended [sorry- but you don’t].

    RE: Minnie @ 241

    Woodinville= boonies? Bwahaha!
    I grew up in Seattle schools back in the eighties and they were the pits.
    Broadview elementary kids had mandatory bussing [on unsupervised] Metro busses down to Columbia in early eighties. The trip was in hours of darkness for a portion of the year too.
    Ridiculous for a kid in the 3rd or 5th grade to have to endure that.
    Not sure if they still do that.
    But that was back before Seattle was so COOL and somewhat normal people lived there ;-)

  246. 246
    Kmac says:

    RE: Minnie @ 241

    And your part about income taxes.

    Why does there always have to be a want of more?
    Is the choice of the lesser of two evils really a choice?

    People need to learn to say Enough Already!
    No reason to care what other areas are doing.

  247. 247

    RE: sleepless @ 240

    There are limits. When you are selling your house in this Country, you don’t have the right to be a racist. We have laws against that. That is why racist chat on a real estate blog is worse than racist talk in a different forum, lest one forget or not know that housing…Fair Housing…is a huge exception.

    A lot of people think it’s just a business or a person’s right to do whatever with their own property. It’s important to keep noting that is not the case when it comes to housing issues.

  248. 248

    RE: Minnie @ 241

    Minnie: “Seattle I can’t figure out because it’s one school district yet there are still “good schools” and “bad schools”. ”

    Minnie, there are good schools and bad schools in every district. From what I’m seeing so far the ones not passing the levy were already on the weak side as to schools and property appreciation and the ones passing were on the high side. I expect it represents a long history of caring and not caring. Still trying to check what passed and what didn’t, but the results are not all in. I expect we’ll see the results around the same time we see the new taxes.

  249. 249

    By Minnie @ 241:

    2) School levys. Oh boy. I think that good schools are directly tied to good neighborhoods, and places where people ultimately prefer to live. Bellevue, for example. Mercer Island. Northshore Schools, Shoreline Schools. Woodinville – it’s kind of in the boonies but they have great schools so property values are high.

    Maybe we should make King County like cruise ships. Parts of the county can be like Disney Cruises, and set up for good education systems and having a lot of kids around. Parts of the county can be like Royal Caribbean, and set up for older folk. You could also have Celebrity X (party!) and Princess (???) areas. Segregation at its best!

  250. 250

    By Ardell DellaLoggia @ 244:

    RE: sleepless @ 240

    There are limits. When you are selling your house in this Country, you don’t have the right to be a racist. We have laws against that.

    I’m not so sure that’s true if you just put a “For Sale” sign up in front of your house and don’t use an agent, at least at the federal level. Not sure about city and state laws. Not something we have to worry about since anything we do is clearly covered.

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