Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Features'

Directed Thread: How do you find the best value?

By The Tim on November 16th, 2009 at 4:51 AM · 59 Comments

Well, today’s the last day of my trip to New York City, and since I didn’t quite plan far enough ahead to have a substantive post today, I thought we could try something new.

It’s called a “directed thread,” and it goes like this:

  • I’ll pose a question for discussion.
  • Everyone hashes it out in the comments.
  • Later this week I’ll parse the discussion.
  • The most useful or interesting posts will be mixed into a post of their own sometime next week, hopefully harnessing the collective knowledge of the community for the betterment of the whole.

So, here’s today’s discussion topic: How do you find properties that are the best value in today’s market?

Do you mostly look at specific neighborhoods? Are there certain property characteristics that often signal good value? What tools do you use, etc… Anything and everything related to finding the best value is fair game. Let’s hear it.

As something of a consolation prize for the lack of a more meaty post (and because I just think it’s cool and I want to share it), here’s a picture I shot last night of Times Square from the Empire State Building. See you all tomorrow.

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Seattle Bubble Commenters: Thank You!

By The Tim on November 5th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 69 Comments

Seattle Bubble hit a geeky milestone yesterday, with the posting of its 0×10000th comment! That’s hexadecimal—base 16—65,536 for you non-geeks out there. The 0×10000th comment was posted by Flying Ape.

In commemoration of this geeky occasion, here are a few statistics relating to the comments on Seattle Bubble.

As of the 0×10000th comment, 65,536 comments had been posted across a total of 1,852 posts, for an average of 35 comments per post. Seattle Bubble was launched on August 5, 2005, so that’s an average of 42 comments per day.

Stupid spam robots have attempted (and failed) to post 89,069 (0×15BED) spam comments, outnumbering comments by real people 1.4 to 1. And that’s just since Seattle Bubble’s move to its own domain in May 2007, meaning that the spambots (failed to) post an average of 99 comments per day. Yikes!

Top 10 most-commented posts:

  1. 2008.06 – May Reporting Roundup (330 comments)
  2. 2009.06 – May Foreclosures Up 69% from 2008 in King County (295 comments)
  3. 2008.08 – House Valuation Workshop (232 comments)
  4. 2009.01 – Official Word on Microsoft Layoffs: 1,400 Now, 5,000 Total (218 comments)
  5. 2009.07 – Are Home Price Drops Around Seattle Mostly Over? (218 comments)
  6. 2008.07 – June Reporting Roundup (206 comments)
  7. 2009.08 – Comment of the Week: Impulsive Behavior Disorder (198 comments)
  8. 2008.01 – Predictions: 2007 Revisited, 2008 Prognosticated (186 comments)
  9. 2008.09 – Breaking: House Votes Down $700B Bailout (179 comments)
  10. 2009.07 – NWMLS: Sales Edge Above ‘08, Median Up 5% MOM, Down 12% YOY (177 comments)

Top 10 12 most prolific commenters:

  1. Kary L. Krismer (2,548 comments)
  2. The Tim (2,085 comments)
  3. david losh (1,596 comments)
  4. deejayoh (1,504 comments)
  5. Scotsman (1,472 comments)
  6. patient (1,190 comments)
  7. Eleua (1,177 comments)
  8. softwarengineer (1,150 comments)
  9. meshugy (929 comments)
  10. Matthew (925 comments)
  11. Ray Pepper (869 comments)
  12. Jon (782 comments)

[Update: There was a glitch in the auto-generated top ten that caused some commenters' count to be split. I have updated the list to correct for this error.]

Technically, “Anonymous” was #1 with 2,651 comments (a throwback to Seattle Bubble’s old days at Blogger.com), but since that’s not really a single person, it doesn’t count. What’s really impressive about Kary’s spot at #1 is that he only just started commenting on Seattle Bubble in July of last year, so in less than 16 months he has managed to rack up nearly twice as many comments as the next-closest competitor (not counting myself), averaging 5.4 comments per day.

And let’s not leave out the forum!

Top 10 forum posters:

  1. rose-colored-coolaid (1,976 posts)
  2. deejayoh (1,154 posts)
  3. TJ_98370 (837 posts)
  4. The Tim (790 posts)
  5. Alan (780 posts)
  6. Robroy (681 posts)
  7. sniglet (679 posts)
  8. Markor (602 posts)
  9. biliruben (573 posts)
  10. WestSideBilly (550 posts)

A giant THANK YOU goes out to everyone that participates in the discussion here at Seattle Bubble. I have learned a lot from you, and I think on the whole we have made a positive contribution to the understanding and demystifying of real estate and related economic issues in the Seattle area. I hope that we can continue the conversation for many 0×1000s of comments to come. ;^)

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Affordability Declined in Q3 as Housing Market Heated Up

By The Tim on October 30th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 3 Comments

The latest issue of Sound Housing Quarterly has been published. Sound Housing Quarterly is a subscription-based sister project to Seattle Bubble. Here are a couple of highlights from the third quarter issue.

The Real Estate Heat Index (a proprietary index I created that uses supply, demand, and home prices to calculate the general “heat” of the housing market) rose in all seven Puget Sound Counties in the third quarter, but still remains below pre-bubble levels.

Real Estate Heat Index: King, Snohomish, Pierce

Meanwhile, affordability dropped in every county but Snohomish, despite interest rates in the 5s.

Affordability Index: King, Snohomish, Pierce

The full version of Sound Housing Quarterly includes detailed data and analysis for King, Snohomish, Pierce, Kitsap, Thurston, Island, and Skagit counties.

Head over to HousingQuarterly.com to subscribe to Sound Housing Quarterly. You can also download a free single-page summary of this quarter’s report, or head over to the free archive to check out last year’s Q3 report in full.

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Avoid Pitfalls When Appealing Your Property Tax Valuation

By Charlie Walsh on October 29th, 2009 at 12:00 PM · 15 Comments

Note from The Tim: The following is a guest post from Charlie Walsh, the Founder and CEO of ValueAppeal, a new startup based in Seattle. ValueAppeal is a simple online tool that homeowners can use to help them appeal their property tax assessments.

King County Property Tax Appeal Deadline Is Soon!

Each year counties around the country send out notices in the mail letting homeowners know what the new assessed value of their home is for property tax purposes. Unlike most counties around the country, King County doesn’t send out all of their assessment notices at the same time. Over the course of the summer, the King County Assessor sends out assessment notices for a different neighborhood each week. Homeowners have sixty (60) days from the postmark date on their mailing notice to file their appeal (a.k.a. Real Property Petition Form) with the King County Board of Equalization. That means each neighborhood’s appeal deadline is a little different.

When homeowners receive their notice in the mail that their property tax assessment has gone up above the market value of the home, the gut reaction is “there’s no way I could sell my house for that much.” That’s exactly what happened recently to the Thompson family in Seattle. They received a notice in the mail that their four bedroom, 3 bathroom home was assessed for over $675,000, way more than they could possibly sell it for on the open market.

Unfortunately, most homeowners leave it at that. They pay their bill grudgingly and try to forget about it. A lot of homeowners may not even realize how much they’re overpaying because their mortgage company pays the property taxes on their behalf and then adds it to their statement each month. Fortunately the Thompsons didn’t just accept their unfair assessment, they figured out the rules for filing and appeal and lowered their assessment by just over $110,000, saving them over $1,300 on their property tax bill.

The first thing the Thompson’s did correctly was to make sure they filed their Real Property Petition Form before the end of their 60 day appeal window. (The Real Property Petition Form is available on the King County Assessor’s website, or by calling 206-296-7300) All King County homeowners receive an assessment notice in the mail between April and September of each year. The mailings are intentionally staggered over the course of the summer and homeowners have 60 days from the date of their mailing notice to file a notice of intent to appeal their assessment. The Thompsons received their assessment notice in the mail on September 10th so they had to file their appeal by November 9th at the latest.

In their research, the Thompsons learned that in order to prove their case for a lower assessment to the Board of Equalization, they needed to present 3-5 comparables homes “comps” along with the Real Property Petition Form they downloaded from the assessor’s website. This meant finding nearby homes similar in square feet, lot size, bedrooms, bathrooms, etc, that sold for less than their home was assessed for. This was the Thompson’s first big hurdle; where were they going to get the comps?

Finding the correct comps is harder than you might think.

Many homeowners will start by typing their address into a service like Zillow to get a long list of about 40 comps and picking the ones that seem best at first glance. Unfortunately, this often leads to their comps being disqualified and their appeal case being unceremoniously thrown out.

Why? There are a number of reasons comps are disqualified during an appeal hearing. For starters, the King County Assessor evaluates your home’s value as of the January 1st assessment date each year by looking at comps that sold PRIOR to that assessment date. Therefore, in order to successfully appeal, the homeowner must also submit comps that sold PRIOR to the assessment date as well. Zillow’s data is constantly updated to attempt to determine a real time market value, so most of the comps you see displayed for your property sold AFTER January 1st, 2009 and would be disqualified by the assessor.

And that’s not all. Homeowners are not allowed to submit comps that sold as part of a foreclosure, short sale, inheritance or divorce transaction, donation to charity, or any other non arm’s length transaction. Yet all of these transactions are technically “sales” and show up in official records. Unfortunately if you look up comps on Zillow, many of these important details get lost.

As you can see there are some hurdles that homeowners have to deal with when appealing their property taxes. Finding the correct comps to use in a property tax appeal is difficult. Fortunately for the Thompsons, today there are online property tax appeal resources available to help homeowners select the correct comps that didn’t even exist as recently as 2008.

On August 27th, 2009 the King County Assessor mailed assessment notices for the following neighborhoods: Queen Anne, Western West Seattle, Rainier Beach, Broadview, Blue Ridge, and Shilshole. That means the sixty (60) day window for these neighborhoods closes on Monday October 26th, 2009. If you’re only a week or two late filing your Real Property Petition Form they’ll usually let it slide, but don’t push it. If you never received your assessment notice in the mail you can sign an affidavit saying you never received it and they’ll allow you to file your petition after the deadline.

Click below for the remaining upcoming appeal King County property tax appeal deadlines. [Read more →]

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The rain returns, and with it the perfect house-shopping season.

By The Tim on October 26th, 2009 at 8:42 AM · 27 Comments

There’s no doubt that the gloomy, dark, wet weather has returned to Seattle. While everyone around Seattle retreats into the warm confines of their living rooms and local coffee shops, I’d like to offer a bit of contrarian advice for the house-shoppers out there. Seize the winter.

Winter is hands down the best time to go house hunting in Seattle, for three major reasons.

1. Less Competition

If home sales were spread evenly throughout the year, each month would see roughly 8.3% of the yearly total. Of course, anyone who has spent even a little bit of time following the real estate market knows that this is not the case. Over the last nine years, four months have consistently accounted for less than their fair share of closed sales each year: November, December, January, and February.

Monthly Percentage of Total Yearly Closed Sales: King Co. SFH 2000-2008

Keep in mind that we’re talking about closed sales, so these represent people who were house-hunting roughly a month or so earlier. In other words, if you want the least amount of competition, you should be out there looking for your next home in December or January. October and November are also good, though not quite to the same degree.

It is true that inventory also tends to decline in the winter months, giving you less selection to choose from, but sales usually decline more, as winter almost always sees the yearly highs for “months of supply” (inventory divided by sales). And less inventory isn’t necessarily a bad thing anyway, as that leads us to the second point…

2. More Motivated Sellers

How many times have you heard a hopeful seller declare as winter approaches: “I’ll just pull my house off the market for the winter and try again in the spring.” These are the kinds of houses you don’t want to buy, because the sellers are obviously not very motivated.

Typically, sellers who leave their homes on the market through the long, dark winter are those that need to sell for some reason or another, and will therefore be more likely to be willing to bargain with you.

Look for homes that have been on the market for 4-5 months in the middle of December, and you’ll probably find a highly motivated seller.

3. Easier to Spot Major Problems

In the summer, Seattle homes look great with a fresh coat of paint, the blue sky in the background providing a delightful contrast to the gleaming reflection of the sun on the bright white trim. But what you don’t see is the host of problems that may be lurking under the surface, ready to spring out the first time the rains return.

When it’s wet and rainy outside, it is far easier to spot lots of common Seattle-area house problems:

  • leaky roof
  • leaky basement / crawl space
  • mold
  • flooding / muddy yard
  • poor insulation
  • bad window or door seals

Buying a house is a major financial commitment beyond the mortgage, and it’s best to go into it knowing about these kinds of issues before they rear their ugly heads. House shopping in the pouring rain is a great way to help make sure you don’t miss something.

Seize the winter.
Obviously if everyone took this advice, some of the benefits of house-hunting in the winter would be lost. Fortunately for you, most people will continue to let things like school schedules and sunny skies dictate their house shopping plans, making the winter the perfect time for you to get the best house for the least amount of money.

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Reader Question: No Debt & An Impending Raise – Time to Jump In?

By The Tim on October 19th, 2009 at 11:00 AM · 74 Comments

Here’s a question I received from a reader over the weekend:

I have $50k in the bank, no debt, make 50k per year and am confident in a position that will pay 75k per year starting 06/10. Let’s assume that if the position doesn’t happen, I will take a second job to make up the difference.

I’ve never owned a home. Rent for me is one room in a house and just $400/mo. A place I buy would need to be on the eastside.

I’ve lived well below my means for years (and also been a Seattle Bubble reader for that amount of time). But in my current situation I’m seriously considering a first home. Your opinion on my situation would be appreciated.

- “Seattle Bill”

Here’s my advice for Bill:

1) Structure your budget around what you already have today, not what you might have sometime in the near future.

You’re making $50,000 today. That’s what you have to work with, not $75,000. If you buy today, setting your budget based on a future expectation of a massive increase in salary, you’re setting yourself up for failure.

Here’s what I recommend to anyone that is considering buying, in any market. First, go to your preferred mortgage broker, bank, or credit union and find out what kind of loans you are qualified for, how much you can borrow, and what your monthly payment would be. Getting a pre-qualification does not require you to commit to a lender or a loan, but will tell you for sure how much you can borrow.

For example, let’s say you were pre-qualified for a $250,000 loan, with a monthly principal + interest payment of $1,100. Add in probable taxes and insurance (we’ll say another $350 / month), and you’ve got a total monthly PITI obligation of $1,450. With a yearly salary of $50,000, that comes out to 34% of your gross income.

Here’s a simple affordability calculator I posted earlier this year to help you quickly calculate your own personal affordability situation.

Personally, my absolute upper limit would be 30%, but even that would come out to $1,250 a month for you, which is over three times what you’re paying right now. Figure out what you think you’d be comfortable with, and then force yourself to live with that budget for six months, saving the difference between your current rent and your expected monthly house payment.

If you succeed in living within that budget for six months, you’ll have a pretty good idea of what other sacrifices you’ll have to make to buy the house, and you’ll have another $5,000+ in the bank to help pay for closing costs or your down payment. If your salary does end up rising by 50%, either stick to what you could afford with $50k, or get pre-qualified again with the new salary, and “test drive” your budget again with the new salary.

2) If you decide to buy, pay a price that you think is fair for the house today (assume that it may stagnate or decrease in value in the future).

One surefire way to set yourself up for financial problems in the future is to rationalize your decision to buy a house by convincing yourself that it is a great financial investment.

There are plenty of great reasons to buy a house. Buy a house because you want a place that you have control over. Buy a house because you want stability. Buy a house because you want to plant a garden. Buy a house because you want to breed Irish Wolfhounds. Just don’t buy a house because you think it will make you money. Maybe it will, maybe it won’t, but that factor should not be a part of your decision-making process.

3) Keep your eye on bank-owned houses, and look for homes that need a little work.

There are definitely some good deals to be found out there today, but they’re not in the owner-occupied homes that have been “upgraded” with hardwood floors, granite countertops, and a fresh coat of paint on the outside. High curb appeal may sell a house fast, but it doesn’t sell a house at a good bargain. If you’re willing to put in a little bit of work, look for bank-owned fixers.

The Bottom Line: Know what you’re getting into.

Nobody can tell you what you should do, since no two people have the same financial situation. My recommendation is just that you do the research, critically evaluate your finances, and should you decide to buy, do so with realistic expectations.

So what’s your advice for Seattle Bill? Let’s hear from the commenters.

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