Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Neighborhoods'

April Neighborhoods Months of Supply Interactive Update

By The Tim on May 13th, 2009 at 9:25 AM · 133 Comments

Here’s your look at March’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here. In place of our usual boring static charts, this month we are proud to expand our usage of interactive data visualizations from Tableau Software into a new monthly update.

Unfortunately, due to a change in definition by the NWMLS last July, the number of active listings will be lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales will be higher, causing the months of supply to be lower than it would otherwise have been.

Summary

April MOS for King County as a whole dipped down further into so-called “seller’s market” territory at 4.5.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood. Again, take the below comparison with a giant grain of salt, since the NWMLS has changed the way they count listings and pendings since last year. As an example of how this data may be skewed, if there were 6,000 active listings last year (300 of which—5%—were “subject to inspection”) and 1,000 pending sales, we would have had 6.0 months of supply. However, this year under the new counting method, the same scenario would result in 5,700 active listings and 1,300 pending sales (300 being “pending inspection”), giving us 4.4 months of supply—27% lower.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Even with the change, most of the Eastside remains above 6 months of supply, while most of the other neighborhoods around King have dropped below 6.

Regional History

Months of supply decreased again in most neighborhoods from March to April, matching the normal seasonal pattern. Just nine of thirty neighborhoods remained in “buyer’s market” territory.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped further into “seller’s market” territory at 3.7, while the Eastside as a whole dropped as well, but remained a “buyer’s market” at 6.2.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Enumclaw (300) at 11.3, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 10.8, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 9.9.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 2.3, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 2.4, and North Seattle (710) at 2.7.

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March Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update

By The Tim on April 23rd, 2009 at 9:56 AM · 45 Comments

[Note: Stay tuned to this space next month, when we'll be introducing another round of sweet Tableau charts.]

Here’s your look at March’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

March MOS for King County as a whole dipped down into so-called “seller’s market” territory at 5.70 (compared to 6.19 for March 2008). The record run of county-wide 6+ MOS has ended at eighteen months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the thirteen-month period of March 2008 through March 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). The charts all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely overstating the magnitude of the “seller’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. March 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

KC SFH MOS: March '08 & March '09

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

[Read more →]

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Median Prices Down Over 50% in Parts of King

By The Tim on March 10th, 2009 at 8:14 AM · 45 Comments

Although the median price has its drawbacks, it does at least give us a reasonably accurate measure of the general direction and magnitude of price changes in an area.

While we have had regular monthly updates on the county-wide median prices, we haven’t really taken a look at the price breakdowns by neighborhood for a while. Let’s check in on the total drop in median prices by neighborhood.

The chart below shows the total drop in the single-family median price from the peak month to the lowest month to date for each of 29 NWMLS neighborhoods (701—Downtown Seattle excluded, see a map here).

Note that the peak months ranged from January to November 2007. For the price troughs came in February for 11 areas, in January for 9 areas, in October through December in 8 areas, and in June for Area 550 (Redmond, Carnation).

King County Peak to Trough Median Price Drop

The largest drops so far have been in Mercer Island (510) and Medina/Clyde Hill/West Bellevue (520) tied at 52%, Skyway (360) at 54%, and Vashon Island (800) at 55% off.

The smallest drops so far have been in Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 24%, Black Diamond/Maple Valley (320) at 23%, and East Bellevue (530) at 22% off.

It’s interesting that at 22% off, the county-wide drop from the peak is equal to the smallest drop that has been seen to date in any individual neighborhood. Due to the low volume of closed sales in individual neighborhoods, the median price tends to fluctuate more than it does county-wide. When comparing the individual peaks to February 2009, 8 neighborhoods have dropped 22% or less.

Does a median price drop of 50% off or more in a neighborhood mean that most houses in that neighborhood have had their values drop 50%? Probably not. But it is definitely more likely that houses in such neighborhoods have dropped in price considerably more than those in neighborhoods with only a 20% drop.

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September Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update

By The Tim on October 15th, 2008 at 12:06 PM · 30 Comments

Let’s have a look at “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

September MOS for King County as a whole came in at 6.57 (compared to 7.21 for September 2007 and 6.80 for August), bringing the current run to thirteen months—three times the previous record in the winter of 1994-1995.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of October 2007 through September 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0.

[Read more →]

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August Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update

By The Tim on September 22nd, 2008 at 9:00 AM · 25 Comments

Let’s have a look at “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

August MOS for King County came in at 6.80 (compared to 4.92 for August 2007 and 7.21 for September), bringing the current run to a full year (vs. the previous record of 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995).

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of September 2007 through August 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

[Read more →]

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July Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update

By The Tim on August 18th, 2008 at 12:17 PM · 49 Comments

Here’s the latest update on months of supply, or “absorption rates” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Don’t forget you can view a map of these areas here.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. July MOS for King County came in at 6.62 (compared to 4.06 for July 2007), bringing the current run to eleven months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of August 2007 through July 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

[Read more →]

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