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Homeownership is a good thing, for the individual and for society. Or so American governments, whether Republican or Democrat, have long believed. The benefits have been cited repeatedly in justifying the existence and expansion of the tax breaks given to home buyers.

But maybe it isn’t nearly as good as had been thought.

A new study by two economists concludes that rising levels of homeownership in a state “are a precursor to eventual sharp rises in unemployment in that state.” As more homes are owned, in other words, fewer people have jobs.

This week’s poll is inspired by the story, but since I only linked to it in the comments and I’m interested in seeing more broad discussion on the topic, I’m dedicating a regular post to the topic. Commenter “whatsmyname” weighed in, accusing the study authors of having ulterior motives:

English translation:

Cutting taxes for the rich without decreasing tax revenues will require increasing tax revenues from the not rich. We think they’re too stupid to notice when we say it openly. Oftentimes, we are right.

Here’s the problem with that claim, though. It has been well-documented by numerous sources that most of the benefit from the mortgage interest deduction is in fact collected by “the rich.” The “not rich” have been duped into thinking it’s a great deal for them when in reality they get very little from it. Here are a few links on that topic:

• Despite Benefit Disparities, Middle Class Supports Mortgage Deduction
• Only Rich People Benefit From The Home Interest Mortgage Deduction
• The Stark Geographic Inequality of the Home Mortgage Interest Deduction
• Who Really Benefits From Interest Deductions

So what do you think about the claim that increasing homeownership in a region leads to a later increase in unemployment? I think the authors make a compelling case, although I admit that I have not yet read the entire original study. I’m a fan of homeownership, but I also understand that it’s not right for everyone, and it is ill-suited to the increasingly mobile workforce of today’s economy.

[Update: Here's the link to the original paper from the Peterson Institute for International Economics: Does High Home-Ownership Impair the Labor Market?]

The post Rising Homeownership May Lead to Rising Unemployment appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

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I attended a meeting last week sponsored by the National Association of Hispanic Real Estate professionals (NAHREP). This group has brought many high quality educational events to the greater Seattle area and I’m so impressed with NAHREP that I decided to join.  I have been following the success and growth of NACA, the Neighborhood Assistance Corporation of America, for several years. They are a non-profit association born out of disgust with predatory lending and the use of subprime loans by banks, lenders, and brokers during the housing bubble.  It’s founder, Bruce Marks, was featured on 60 Minutes, and many other national news programs.  NACA has two main goals:

1. To extend the reach of affordable lending and homeownership to every working person; and,
2. To combat discrimination and exploitation of working people by lenders and financial institutions.

NACA has offices in many states and is in the process of coming to the greater Seattle/Puget Sound. They have no physical office here but they are on the way.  NACA, a non-profit organization, also holds either a lender or mortgage broker license in the states in which they do business.

“Best Mortgage in America”

NACA is bringing their “Best Mortgage in America” to WA State. They hold a WA State Mortgage Broker license MB-4082 and currently have one licensed loan originator assigned to WA State with the intent to hire more, though their compensation plan is best served by loan originators who prefer salaries in line with working for a non-profit….because one of the many duties of NACA employees is to spend many hours thoroughly counseling their clients before the client becomes a homeowner, and requires long face-time office hours of 830-6PM.  So what is the “Best Mortgage in America?” Let’s find out.

• NACA acts as the mortgage broker; loans are funded by Bank of America or Citi
• Purchase money loan only (there is no refinance program)
• Less than perfect credit—Okay
• No credit score—Okay
• Affordability and Character-based lending
• Below market interest rates
• Interest rate buy downs at purchase are encouraged
• 30 or 15 year term
• 1-4 single family home, condo, coop
• Loan limits: Home or Condo for King, Pierce Kitsap. Snohomish county loan limit not yet available…SFR: $341,516, Duplex: $416,254, Triplex: $488,153, Fourplex: $583,514
• Rehab/Renovation Lending: 110% of after-repairs-completed value
• Owner occupied only
• Owner occupied for as long as the NACA loan is in existence
• No down payment
• No closing costs

NOTE: Actually there ARE closing costs.  The representative from NACA said, and I quote, “There is a fee, and there are non recurring costs but these are paid for by the lender.”

Before NACA goes wild with their “no closing costs” marketing program in WA State, I recommend their compliance department read our WA State Mortgage Broker Practices Act:
WA 208-660-440

(3) Is it a violation to advertise that third-party services are “free” when the licensee has paid for the services? Yes. Advertising using the term “free,” or any other similar term or phrase that implies there is no cost to the applicant is deceptive because you can recover the cost of the purportedly “free” item through the negotiation process. This is a violation of RCW 19.146.0201 (2), (7), and (11). See the Federal Trade Commission’s Guide Concerning Use of the Word “Free” and Similar Representations (16 C.F.R. §251.1(g) (2003))

Misc

• NACA fully underwrites the credit portion of the loan before the borrower is released to purchase a home from the Realtor and the pre-approval letter will contain the monthly payment including taxes, insurance, and homeowner’s assoc dues, if any, instead of just a sales price.
• One purchase every 5 years to discourage flipping.
• RE Condos: Requires 51 percent owner occupied in the complex w less than 10 percent of the units delinquent. Complex does not have to be FHA approved.
• Not just for first time homebuyers: Home buyer cannot own another piece of real property when receiving the NACA loan.  Note: the Homebuyer CAN own land or timeshare because we can’t “owner occupy” our land or timeshare.
• If purchasing a short sale, NACA buyers do not pay any of the seller’s fees including any third party short sale negotiator fee
• No income limits
• No time limit required to stay in the home
• ITIN (individual taxpayer ID number) okay
• Also avail: mixed use commercial-residential
• Buyer pays for home inspection
• Cannot use a NACA loan to purchase property at a foreclosure auction.
• NACA selects the title company
• Homebuyer’s loan closing will take place in the local NACA office.

Real Estate Brokers

Real estate brokers go thru a NACA training program. Since NACA does a lot of homebuyer outreach education, if a buyer is referred from NACA to the real estate broker then the real estate broker will pay a referral fee to NACA of 33%.  They do not yet have a real estate license in WA State but will soon and mentioned “buyer broker representation” as part of their goal for WA State.  Their real estate broker program is not up and running yet but the NACA rep says plans are in place to bring the program into the Seattle/Tacoma area soon.

REOs: 14-Day First Look with B of A

NACA-approved home buyers have an exclusive option to purchase REOs from Bank of America before they are listed in the MLS. Not all REOs, and not all of B of A’s REOs…just some.  This “first look” list goes from Bank of America to NACA.  NACA sends the REO list to Realtors affiliated with NACA. B of A has three BPOs completed to determine the price.  Selling broker makes sure NACA-approved buyer can qualify.  If yes, then the NACA-approved buyer can view the home before it is listed on the MLS.  If a NACA-approved buyer submits a full list price offer within the 14 day “first look” window, then the offer must be accepted by B of A, even if other offers are higher.  IN ADDITION: If NACA-approved buyer makes a full price offer within the first 14 days…are you sitting down? Get this—B of A will give 10 points to the buyer to buy down the interest rate.  Typically 1 point = .25 of a rate buydown so this means the NACA-approved buyer could end up with a 2.5 percentage point interest rate buydown. The opportunistic side of my brain started thinking about how I could buy a home this way but the skeptical side of my cold black heart tells me that maybe the First Look homes are going to be mostly dog house former meth labs in Granite Falls.

NACA Homebuyers Are Heavily Counseled 

All bets are against the NACA borrower.  Zero down, less-than-perfect credit sounds like your typical FHA borrower using gift funds for the down payment. And currently FHA’s default rate is 15%. Zero-down-less-than-perfect-credit also sounds like a subprime borrower.  At the peak of the meltdown/housing reset, subprime loans defaults went as high as 40%.

So why should NACA’s default rate be any less?  Here’s why: The NACA borrower goes through heavy pre-purchase counseling and has access to after-purchase default support services such as help with forbearance/repayment plans and loan modification support. In addition, if you have a NACA loan and you are in financial distress, you can receive 3 monthly payments paid by NACA to bring your loan out of default.

So what’s the catch?

NACA homebuyers must join NACA at a cost of $20 per month while they are attending pre-homebuyer counseling classes and then the cost is $50 per month for 5 years ($3,000.) In addition, NACA homeowners must agree to participate in 5 NACA activities each calendar year. Activities include community volunteer work, hosting a NACA meeting in your neighborhood, organizing a homebuyer workshop, participating in advocacy campaigns against predatory lenders, and so forth.

Reasons For

Clearly this is a great deal for first time homebuyers who want a mortgage with a very low interest rate and don’t mind going through the extensive homebuyer counseling, don’t mind paying $50/month for 5 years, and don’t mind carving out time to participate in 5 volunteer activities each year.  Some consumers were burned by predatory lenders during the real estate bubble and burned again with the 2008 recession. Maybe they are now renters…it’s been 2 years since their financial distress event and they are considering buying once again.  This sounds like a good program for people with a previous foreclosure of bankruptcy due to the extensive pre-purchase counseling they will get at NACA.. Anyone against predatory lending should welcome NACA to town.

Reasons Against

Clearly this is not a good loan program for people who don’t want to commit to owner occupancy for the life of the loan, or do not want to become active NACA members, are financially uber smart and would consider the homebuyer counseling classes beneath them. Budget? Savings? They’ve been doing this successfully for years and don’t need somebody to hold their hand. On the other side of the financial spectrum, not all buyers are going to fit into the NACA box including those with higher debt-to-income ratios.  Yeah, we are free-throwing those high DTI loans into the FHA program for as long as that will last. NACA DTI is a more manageable 31/40.

Sustainable homeownership should be our goal in mortgage lending. This is NACA’s main priority and I welcome NACA to Washington State.

By the way, NACA’s loan default rate is less than 1 percent.

The post NACA: The Largest Housing Services Organization in America Comes to Washington State appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Multiple offers are “the new normal” for housing market around Puget Sound

“Multiple offers have become the new normal,” remarked MLS director Diedre Haines, the Snohomish County regional managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. “We have literally gone off the charts in absorption,” she stated, adding the dip in pending sales in that county “is all due to lack of inventory.”
…
Prices will continue to rise as current market conditions are sustained, predicts J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. Among the conditions he mentioned are historically low interest rates, pent up buyer demand, and a shortage of available inventory.
…
Whether the market becomes more balanced may depend on listings. Northwest MLS figures show every county in its service area had year-over-year gains in new listings during April. “Let’s hope this is the start of a positive trend for inventory,” commented Mike Grady, the president and COO of Coldwell Banker Bain, but then added, “Considering the overall market landscape, it’s likely there won’t be enough sellers to fill buyer demand, at least for the short term.”

For once I’m on the same page as at least one of the real estate agents quoted in the NWMLS release (Mr. Grady). Of course, I’m hoping for more inventory so the market becomes more balanced, while they’re most likely motivated primarily by the additional commission checks that come with additional listings, but I’ll take what I can get.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: County home price back to $400,000

The double-digit percentage gain in home prices is triple the inflation rate and isn’t sustainable in the long run, [Glenn] Crellin said.

“We need inventory for the market to really stabilize,” he said.
…
Eastside broker Mike Chaffee said he represents a buyer who wants a house that will ensure her son attends popular Newport High School in the Bellevue School District. His buyer is well qualified, with a 30 percent down payment.

They’ve been looking for a year.

At homes in the neighborhood, Chaffee has sprinkled fliers with unsolicited offers for “top market value,” vowing to close a deal in 30 days and save the seller money on closing costs. Chaffee said it’s an example of how buyers are getting creative.

“I’m doing my best to get this buyer a house,” he said. “If I can do it without 10 other people putting in an offer, it relieves a lot of stress on the situation.”

Two people responded to the flier: One wanted $50,000 over what the house was worth, Chaffee said, while the other asked for $100,000 over the house’s market value.

His buyer didn’t bite.

Another month of great reporting in the Seattle Times. Kudos to Sanjay Bhatt for doing a great job filling the void left by Eric Pryne’s retirement.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: King County house price back up to $400,000

“I’d been hoping to see an increase in listing activity, and I really can’t figure out what everybody’s waiting for,” Crellin said. “It’s been tight now for several months, and that doesn’t bode well for stable prices.”

It looks to me like inventory did begin to show signs of life in April. We’ll know in a few months whether we’re finally heading toward a more normal market, but I was encouraged by April’s inventory.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Supply of homes for sale tightens in county

It’s 2007 all over again for the county real estate market as antsy buyers rush to buy what’s available in a tight supply of homes for sale.
…
Several factors are contributing to a “recipe for a frenzied May real estate market,” said John Deely, another member of the Northwest MLS board of directors and the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle.

“The market pace has not subsided from previous months with low inventory and low interest rates being the primary drivers,” he said.

Wait, that does not make sense. Low inventory is driving the “frenzied market pace”? Um, no. If anything, low inventory is holding back sales.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce housing sales, prices continue up

The Pierce County housing market enjoyed another good month, with both sales and prices rising again and extending a streak that started last October, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.
…
Another characteristic of the recent housing market has been fewer homes to choose from, and that continued into April as well.

Here we go again with the qualitative language, describing the market as “good” when it is clearly only good for sellers and is in fact quite frustrating for buyers. Boo.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales, prices rise in April

Thurston home sales and median prices rose in April, the fourth consecutive month of an improved housing market, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.

Once again, the full story from The Olympian is only in the print edition, so all we get online is a brief rehash of the press release.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 05.07.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 05.06.2013)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 05.07.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 05.07.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 05.06.2013)

The post Reporting Roundup: The New Normal Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

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Shame on you, Tim, for publishing misleading data. You cannot say that unemployment has dropped nationwide without also commenting on the record high not in the labor force number. I trust you are not turning into a NAR cheerleader at this stage. Remember, if there were zero jobs, and folks stopped looking, the unemployment rate would be zero, and yet no one would be working. Tsk, tsk…

The jobs posts, like most of the content on this site, are intended to be primarily about what’s going on in the local area, and as the first chart showed, the number of jobs in the Seattle area has been growing since late 2010. That’s hardly a “zero jobs” scenario.

That said, I love a good data request, so here’s a chart of national labor force participation alongside the unemployment rate:

Indeed, in 2006-2007 when unemployment was at its lowest (~4.5%) before the housing bubble popped, the national labor force participation rate was at 66.3%. As of March it is three points lower at 63.3%, while unemployment stands at 7.6%.

Here in the Seattle area the picture is somewhat different, though:

In early 2007 when Seattle’s unemployment was as low as 3.6%, the local labor force participation rate was at 69.5%. As of March, unemployment is at 5.5%—nearly two points higher than it was pre-bust—but the labor force participation rate is virtually the same, at 69.0%.

Even when you include the labor force participation rate in the local picture, the jobs situation is clearly improving. That’s not to say that the jobs that are being added pay well compared to those that were lost during the bust, but there’s no denying that the Seattle area is adding jobs and unemployment is falling fast.

The post Seattle Labor Participation Outperforming National Rate appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

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All of these claims focus on the just-foreclosed home—an empty, run-down shell with an overgrown lawn, missing appliances, and disconnected utilities. But the fact that a home was foreclosed at one point in time doesn’t mean that it will remain vacant and derelict forever. In fact, I contend that foreclosures benefit a neighborhood, and areas that have experienced the most foreclosures are poised to improve the fastest during a recovery.

Before I get into the benefits of foreclosure for a neighborhood, I want to be clear that the personal experience of foreclosure is not positive. Going through a foreclosure is disheartening, and losing your home takes an emotional toll, no matter the circumstances. I have a handful of friends who have been through foreclosure. It was not something any of them enjoyed, and I would not personally wish the experience on anyone.

At the national level, consider the markets that were the hardest-hit by foreclosures after the bubble burst. Las Vegas and Phoenix were both overwhelmed with foreclosures a few years ago, and yet today they are experiencing some of the largest price gains in the nation—15% and 23% year-over-year as of the latest data from Case-Shiller.

Just in the handful of blocks around my home there have been at least half a dozen foreclosures in the last few years. Instead of becoming worse with each new foreclosure, the overall character of the neighborhood has been noticeably improved through these foreclosures.

Some foreclosures are purchased, fixed up, and lived in by the family that bought from the bank. Some are bought by flippers, dramatically refurbished (often after being gutted to the studs), and sold for a decent profit. Others have been bought, fixed up, and are now rentals. In every case, within a year of being repossessed by the bank each the foreclosed homes in my neighborhood has become nicer, as evidenced by the photos throughout this post.

Homes that—even before foreclosure—were the most run-down and neglected in the neighborhood have often become the nicest home on the block. Former homeowners who could not afford even the most basic maintenance have moved on to more affordable rentals, replaced by investors and families who have both the resources and the motivation to keep these homes looking nice.

Here’s a quick rundown of what’s happened with a few of the foreclosures near my home. The homes listed below appear in the same order as their photos in this post.

• 3431 Oakes: Purchased by a family. Since foreclosure they have refurbished the interior, added a railing to the front porch, put in a nice fence, and cleaned up the yard.
• 3609 Wetmore: A small investment group that has fixed and flipped a number of homes in Everett bought this home. After their high quality work was complete, the home sold to the new owner for over double what they paid.
• 3331 Wetmore: Totally gutted, remodeled, and refinished over the course of nine months. Major work includes a whole new front porch, all new windows and doors, a new back porch, and an all new interior. Currently on the market.
• 3616 Rockefeller: The family that bought this home built a matching garage with second floor living space on the back of the lot (not seen in the photo) and is completely renovating the main house.
• 1710 36th: Purchased by a small investor, totally gutted and refurbished with new windows, doors, insulation, floors, all-new kitchen, etc. The finish work was nice enough that he was able to charge above-market rent.

The house directly across the street from mine was foreclosed in January. Rather than causing me concern about the detrimental effect that this will have on the “value” of my home or worrying about how the neighborhood is going downhill, instead I am excited to see how the home will be improved by its eventual new owners.

Foreclosures are not the dark cloud over neighborhoods that they are claimed to be. On the contrary, they are the leading edge of positive changes that improve the character of a neighborhood and lay the groundwork for a sustainable recovery.

The post Foreclosures Benefit a Neighborhood, Not Hurt It appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

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Here’s the data as of March:

At 57.9, the Present Situation Index has gained 187% from its December 2009 low point, but fell 6% from its February level. The index is at roughly the same place it was in September 2008. The expectations index also fell in March, dropping 16% from its February level.

It will be interesting to see if the ongoing “sequestration” cuts combined with the increasingly noisy posturing from North Korea have an effect on Consumer Confidence this month.

The post Consumer Confidence Dips Again in March appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

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To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Prices "spiking" as home buyers compete for scarce inventory

CASH MONEY

“All price ranges are feeling a lift,” reported Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma. Northwest MLS director John Deely echoed that comment: “We are seeing many homes in Seattle meet and exceed pre-bubble price levels,” stated Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle.

“The recovery continues on a slow and steady pace in most areas and surging hard in others,” concluded Darin Stenvers, vice chair of the MLS board.
…
The upward spike in prices is largely the result of limited supply. “Whenever we get down to a severe shortage of homes for sale, we get double-digit home price appreciation,” observed J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate.

Demand continues to outpace supply, creating high absorption rates, Deely stated, adding “Open houses are drawing large crowds.” For example, he reported several open houses from the past weekend experienced traffic exceeding 50 people per day.

Sweet, we’re back to using the old realtor standby of “open house traffic” as a measure of market demand. Never mind that pending sales had their first year-over-year decline in nearly two years. Open house traffic is on the rise! The market will expand forever!

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: King County house prices jumped almost 20 percent over year

About a quarter of buyers are paying all cash for homes, said OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate in Seattle. The rest are putting down, on average, between 20 and 50 percent cash, he said.

“I think that is pretty shocking,” Jacobi said. “It’s crazy.”

Foreclosed properties are drawing an even higher rate of all-cash offers. Seattle real-estate broker Keith Brown, who sells only foreclosed homes, estimated that roughly half the offers on a property he lists are all cash.

“I’m not quite sure where everyone is coming up with all this cash, but there’s definitely been a huge increase in the last few months,” Brown said.

Data > anecdote. All-cash deals were 38% of the Seattle-area market in 2011. I happen to have just run these numbers for Q1 in King County, and it’s up to 42%. Mr. Jacobi and Mr. Brown’s observations are both underestimating the scope of all-cash transactions, and overstating the recency of any change. All-cash deals have been growing steadily and strongly since 2007. There has been no sudden increase of all-cash sales in 2013.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Homes even harder to find in Seattle area in March

Observers of the local real estate market had hoped March would come with increasing listings, helping ease the area’s shortage of homes for sale. It didn’t, although there was a sign the sales surge could be starting to abate, or at least that people are running out of homes to buy.

“I’m a little surprised that we didn’t pick up more listings than we did,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington. “I was really hoping that we’d start to see some balance coming into the listing side of the equation, and these numbers indicate that we’re going to have a really challenging summer. … These numbers are just amazingly low.”

It gets old talking about how few listings there are, month after month, but when that’s still the biggest story in the real estate market, leading with something else doesn’t make sense.

No article has been posted yet in the Everett Herald. I’ll update this post later if they post an article today.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County real estate market continues rebound

Pierce County’s streak of improved home sales and higher median prices continued in March, with both sales and prices rising again, likely cementing the view that the slower housing market finally is behind us, according to new Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Thursday.
…
But the March data also show that sellers are beginning to sense a new direction in the market. For the third month in a row, new listings are outpacing the figure from last year.

Sounds like the inventory situation might be a little better in Tacoma than it is in the Seattle area.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Home sales in county continue to rebound

The March housing data is in for Thurston County and it looks a lot like it did in January and February, with home sales and median prices showing positive gains, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Windermere Olympia is the busiest it has been in the past four years — particularly for those homes priced between $185,000 and $225,000, which in some cases are attracting multiple offers, owner Steve Garrett said.

“Activity has picked up ten-fold,” he said, adding he expects a very productive 2013.

Ten-fold from… last month? Last year? 1880? Hmm…

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 04.04.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 04.04.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 04.04.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 04.05.2013)

The post Reporting Roundup: Spiking Prices Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

“All price ranges are feeling a lift,” reported Dick Beeson, principal managing broker at RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma. Northwest MLS director John Deely echoed that comment: “We are seeing many homes in Seattle meet and exceed pre-bubble price levels,” stated Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle.

“The recovery continues on a slow and steady pace in most areas and surging hard in others,” concluded Darin Stenvers, vice chair of the MLS board.

I think it’s a mischaracterization to say that prices are “spiking.” I get into the reasons for this a little more below. I’m also having a hard time rectifying the “spiking” headline with the “slow and steady” comment from Mr. Stenvers. Whatever.

All righty, on with our usual monthly stats.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

March 2013	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,972	+0.8%	-40.3%
Closed Sales	1,825	+39.6%	+11.1%
SAAS (?)	1.36	-3.1%	-9.9%
Pending Sales	2,936	+18.9%	-2.7%
Months of Supply	1.01	-15.2%	-38.6%
Median Price*	$392,000	+7.4%	+18.8%

Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003 format), but keep in mind the caution above.

For the third month in a row now, we’re looking at the lowest months of supply has ever been as far back as my data goes (January 2000). The number of listings on the market at the end of the month was barely higher than the number of pending sales. Remember thoug that the NWMLS changed the definition of “active listing” in July 2008, so months of supply before and after that point aren’t really directly comparable, and closed sales still aren’t coming anywhere near pending sales, but barely over one month of supply is still pretty abysmal.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Same basic pattern as every year, with sales surging between February and March.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Inventory inched up, but remains at record lows.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the “demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.

The listings curve is moving closer to zero (flat year-over-year), but the sales curve turned back up again in March.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

More or less the same as last month at a nearly 20% year-over-year gain. Remember that this large of a jump is mostly due to a decrease in distressed sales (short sales, bank-owned) and a geographic shift toward the more expensive parts of the county.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.

March 2013: $392,000
December 2005: $393,000

So far I haven’t seen any articles from the Times and P-I, but I’ll update this post later if they show up.

Update:
Seattle Times: King County house prices jumped almost 20 percent over year
Seattle P-I: Homes even harder to find in Seattle area in March

Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.

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Here’s the data as of February:

At 63.3, the Present Situation Index has gained 213% from its December 2009 low point, and rose 13% from its January level. The index is at roughly the same place it was in September 2008. The expectations index also shot up in February, gaining 23% from its January level, but is still 12% below where it was in October.

The post Consumer Confidence Bounces Back Up in February appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

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To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Western Washington housing indicators aligned "for spring market to remember"

“The market is struggling to provide enough inventory for anxious buyers seeking to take advantage of low interest rates,” reported Dick Beeson, principal managing broker of RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma. Also, he lamented, considering 25 percent of the selection is distressed, “It leaves some buyers with tough choices.”
…
“Low supply and high demand continue to drive our market,” stated Northwest MLS director John Deely. He said multiple offers are the “rule rather than the exception” for new listings in core urban areas that are priced well. Deely, the principal managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain in Seattle, noted a new listing in North Seattle recently drew 12 offers and the property was bid almost 10 percent above its listing price.

OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate Company, noted the month’s supply of homes in King County has dipped to about 1.2 months, well below the six-month threshold that many in the industry consider to be “normal.” Jacobi, who is also on the MLS board of directors, noted supply is at its lowest level since May 2005 during the peak of the housing boom. “The impact of low inventory levels is stiff competition among buyers, often resulting in homes selling for well over asking price,” he remarked. Also, he added, the imbalance also leads to rising median prices.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott, Inc., attributes surging sales and prices to several factors, including positive job growth, historically low interest rates and fewer homes being listed. “This restriction of homes for sale is prevalent in the price ranges where more than 90 percent of activity is taking place, causing prices to rise,” he stated.

It is still worth pointing out that home prices are not really “surging,” with the non-distressed median price only up 3.8% as of January. That said, the market right now is definitely not buyer-friendly.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times: Inventory crunch drives King County home prices up

First-time homebuyers are jumping into the market, observers say, since housing prices hit bottom a year ago. When the median house price in King County hit $308,125 in February 2012, that was the lowest level in eight years.

But inventory isn’t keeping pace for several reasons:

Some sellers are waiting for prices to climb higher before listing their homes. Others still owe more on their homes than they’re worth.

A third group of sellers is unwilling to interrupt the cash flow they receive from renting out their homes at high rates.

Eric Pryne has retired, so Sanjay will be taking over the reigns for real estate reporting over at the Seattle Times. He’s done a good job in the past filling in when Eric has been out, and this month’s article is no exception.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: More home sales, fewer listings driving up prices

A continuing shortage of homes for sale drove up prices in the Seattle area in February, according to a new report. But there are signs the market could be changing.

…Pending sales — which don’t all close, but can be the best indicator of recent activity — fell 1.6 percent in Seattle and rose just 0.5 percent countywide. That could reflect an abating of the sales surge or people having trouble finding something to buy.

Short article this month from Aubrey, but he still squeezed an insight in there, pointing out that sales are likely to switch from year-over-year gains to losses soon.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: County home prices surge as inventory shrinks

Shrinking home inventory once again drove a double-digit increase in year-over-year median home and condominium sales prices in Snohomish County.

“In my 37 years working in the real estate industry, I have never seen inventory this low,” Diedre Haines, regional managing broker for Coldwell Bank Bain-Snohomish County and a member of the Northwest Multiple Listing Service board of directors, said in a news release.

This month’s Herald article is little more than a minor rewrite of the NWMLS press release.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Home sales, prices continue to climb in Pierce County

The Pierce County housing market put together another impressive month in February, highlighted by a double-digit increase in median prices, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Tuesday.

That’s welcome news for homeowners, but median prices still have a way to go to match the median prices set during the boom in housing.
…
Allen Realtors of Lakewood President Mike Larson said all the metrics he follows — transactions, pending sales and phone calls to the office — are on the rise.

“We’re finally seeing some traction and momentum and that’s fueling what we’re seeing in values,” he said.

He also said he senses more confidence among consumers, partly because the election is over. Larson admitted the national economy is not exactly rosy, citing the sequester, but the “stock market is setting records just about every day.”

It’s not clear exactly what this agent means by “we’re finally seeing some traction,” but right now the market is being pretty limited by the lack of inventory. I don’t really see how an extreme shortage of homes for sale is “traction.”

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston home sales increase in February

The Thurston County housing market continued to show improvement in February, with home sales rising nearly 30 percent in the year-over-year period, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Tuesday.

“I think the real estate recession is in the rearview mirror,” Windermere of Olympia real estate agent Gregory Moe said.

Home sales rose 29.9 percent to 200 units last month from 154 units in February 2012, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.

The Olympian’s article is pretty short and to the point.

(Sanjay Bhatt, Seattle Times, 03.05.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 03.05.2013)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 03.05.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 03.05.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 03.06.2013)

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Here’s the data as of January:

At 57.3, the Present Situation Index has gained 184% from its December 2009 low point, but fell 11% from its December level. The index is now back below the pre-crash low point of 59.7 in September 2003, and at roughly the same place it was in September 2008. The expectations index also took a dive in January, falling 13% from its December level. In just the last three months, the expectations index has given back 29%, falling from 84.0 in October to 59.5 in January.

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To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Brokers report brisk sales, but rising frustration for home buyers

Punxsutawney Phil’s prediction of an early spring is showing up in the latest housing activity report from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. Its statistics for January showed a 14.4 percent year-over-year increase in pending sales and a 23.6 percent jump in closed sales amid a 31.3 percent decline in inventory.
…
“I personally have never seen the ratio between active buyers and available inventory in Seattle’s close-in neighborhoods so out of balance,” remarked Mike Skahen, owner/designated broker at Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle. Skahen, a real estate professional since 1976, said multiple offers and bids well over the list price are common. “Even homes that were hard to sell for various reasons are being snapped up so those sellers were wise to list,” he added.

Lena Maul, a new member of the Northwest MLS board of directors, and the designated broker/owner at Windermere/North in Lynnwood, agreed now is a good time for sellers to list. “Sellers who are considering a spring or summer listing may want to consider listing now as demand is outweighing supply,” she noted, adding, “This has given well priced sellers the advantage with the benefit of quick sales and multiple offers.”

I actually agree with that last part. While it’s become a fairly lousy time to try to buy a home, it is currently a pretty great time to sell. We haven’t seen a market with supply and demand this skewed toward sellers in a long time, if ever, and it won’t last forever.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: King County home prices dip to March lows

A change in the mix of houses sold also played a part in the drop in the median, an analysis of listing-service data by online brokerage Redfin suggests.

“Distressed” sales — bank-repossessed houses and “short sales” for less than what sellers owe lenders — accounted for a bigger share of sales last month: 24 percent, compared with 19 percent in December.

That’s meaningful because distressed houses generally sell for significantly less than “non-distressed” properties.

As usual, great work from Eric at the Seattle Times. Such a dramatic contrast with the “reporting” that used to be printed over there during the bubble years under the reign of Rhodes.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Low home inventory driving up prices

The Seattle area continued to have incredibly few homes for sale in January, according to a new report.

thanks to fewer homes hitting the market and more selling, Seattle itself had 1.9 months worth of homes on the market in January, at the current sales pace, while King County had 2.2 months worth of homes, according to the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. That’s down from 4.2 months and 5.2 months, respectively, a year earlier.

“I personally have never seen the ratio between active buyers and available inventory in Seattle’s close-in neighborhoods so out of balance,” Mike Skahen, owner of Seattle’s Lake & Co. Real Estate, said in a news release. “Even homes that were hard to sell for various reasons are being snapped up.”

Somewhat of a short piece from Aubrey this month. No much more than a rehash of the press release. I guess he’s busy with other projects.

No story has been posted in the Everett Herald again. Perhaps I should give them a call to see if they need some help with real estate reporting.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Prices, sales improve in Pierce County home sales

Fewer homes to choose from, combined with steady demand, is thought to stimulate home prices.

Home sellers, though, might be sensing an improved market because the number of new listings for January rose compared with the year-ago period. New listings just in January rose to 1,260 units from 1,043 units in January 2012.

Of course, in January of 2012, the whole Seattle area was covered with inches of ice for a week, which might have caused listings to be somewhat depressed. I wouldn’t put much stock in year-over-year comparisons of new listings for January for that reason.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Thurston County housing sales, prices up

Fewer homes to choose from, combined with buyer demand, is thought to stimulate prices.

Thurston County Realtors Association President Pat Pieroni didn’t go so far as to say the turnaround in the housing market is complete, but it is a sign that the market has hit bottom and is beginning to rise again, he said.

“There’s just a good feeling out there right now,” Pieroni said Tuesday, adding that prospective buyers are a little more motivated than they were a few months ago.

January also was much busier than it typically is, he said.

Nothing like “just a good feeling” to drive the market. Or something.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 02.05.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 02.05.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 02.06.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 02.06.2013)

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Here’s the data as of December:

At 62.8, the Present Situation Index has gained 211% from its December 2009 low point, but still sits well below 100. The index is now slightly above the pre-crash low point of 59.7 in September 2003, and at roughly the same place it was in September 2008. Meanwhile, the expectations index took a dive in December, probably thanks to the “fiscal cliff” nonsense that was dominating the media all month.

The post Consumer Confidence: Expectations Dipped in December appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Northwest MLS Tallies Busy December as First-time Buyers, Investors Return

While the expected seasonal slowdown occurred last month, determined buyers were undaunted by sparse inventory and record-breaking rainy days, according to December statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

Frenzy!

“This is a unique housing market,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. “There is nothing normal about the combination of factors fueling the current market,” he added.
…
Brokers expect the housing market rebound to continue, while cautioning sellers to refrain from becoming too greedy and expressing hope for “controlled natural growth” to sustain the recovery. They also believe distressed properties, rising rents and re-engaged investors will have an impact on activity for the foreseeable future.
…
Looking ahead, many brokers expect a strong market in 2013, with some expressing concern about “frenzied bubble growth.”

Oh yeah. I bet they are real concerned about that prospect. I’m sure it keeps them up at night.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Local supply of homes for sale hits another record low

The number of houses for sale in King County has hit yet another record low, according to statistics released Monday by the Northwest Multiple Listing Service.

“There’s just nothing available out there,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of research at the University of Washington’s Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies.
…
Inventory — or lack of it — has been driving the Seattle area real-estate market for several months. Brokers and analysts attribute it mostly to the large number of “underwater” homeowners who are disinclined to sell because they owe lenders more than their houses are worth.

The UW’s Crellin predicted inventory will increase in coming months, in part because rising home prices mean fewer homeowners are underwater.

2012 was indeed the year of crappy selection, start to finish.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: December saw slowing home sales, rising prices

One reason for the decrease in pending sales is that sales had started to pick up last December, said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

Another may be the dearth of homes for sale, he said. “It could be that the potential buyers aren’t finding anything they like.”

And, unlike during the bubble years, he said: “This time they’re not willing to jump in and buy anything that’s on the market in their price range.”

Crellin is on a roll the last couple of years. He’s spot on here.

It seems that the Everett Herald has not posted a story about the December data yet. If I see one later today I will update this post to include it.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Home sales offer happy ending to 2012 in Pierce County

The Pierce County housing market ended 2012 on a positive note as median prices rose 14.48 percent, the largest percentage increase of the year, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.

Median prices rose to $200,563 last month from $175,199 in December 2011, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show. Home sales in the same year-over-year period weren’t as strong, rising just 2.15 percent to 808 units from 791 units, the combined data show.

Hmm, here we go again, describing “the market” as “positive,” when really it’s only positive for sellers. I had hoped that we would leave this kind of language behind with the bursting of the bubble.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Fewer homes for sale, but prices remain low

The number of homes for sale in Thurston County fell under 1,000 units in December for the first time in six years, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Monday.

The number of homes for sale fell 25.38 percent to 988 units in December from 1,324 units in December 2011, the combined single-family residence and condominium data show.

A combination of factors have contributed to the lower inventory levels, and it could mean that less supply and buyer demand stimulate home prices, Washington Realtors Association President Mark Kitabayashi said Monday.

Inventory levels are lower because sellers are waiting for prices to rise, but also because of the holidays, and the uncertainty created by the election and the so-called “fiscal cliff,” he said.

“It all kinds of adds up,” he said.

So, inventory fell between December 2011 and December 2012 “because of the holidays”? I wonder which holidays we had in 2012 but not 2011…

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 01.07.2013)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 01.07.2013)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 01.08.2013)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 09.06.2013)

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10. 128 comments, 01/03: December Stats Preview: Inventory Erasure Edition
9. 131 comments, 02/24: Buy vs. Rent: A Real Life Pre-Peak Example
8. 133 comments, 01/24: 18-Months Later, Reflections on "A House By The Park"
7. 148 comments, 02/12: Poll: Do you care who wins the Republican nomination?
6. 150 comments, 02/09: Reader Rant: Seattle Home Prices Still "Make No Sense"
5. 167 comments, 01/30: A Look at WA SB 6337 "Protecting Short Sale Sellers"
4. 168 comments, 03/14: Reader Question: Telltale Signs of Neighborhood Decline?
3. 173 comments, 05/02: Reader Question: Did I Just Step Into a Shark Tank?
2. 200 comments, 10/28: Poll: For President, I am voting…
1. 228 comments, 04/16: Surprise! You Owe Thousands of Dollars!

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Assuming Case-Shiller is posted tomorrow, I’ll be here with your regularly-scheduled post. It just might show up a little later in the day than usual.

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At 56.6, the Present Situation Index has gained 180% from its December 2009 low point, but still sits well below 100. The index is now just 5% below the pre-crash low point of 59.7 in September 2003, and sits between levels seen on the way down in September and October 2008. Meanwhile, as expectations for the future continue to climb, they have hit 85.1 as of November.

No big surprises in this data. The slog continues, with slow but steady improvement most months.

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To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

High demand, low inventory sparking multiple offers, market momentum

Woo! Momentum!

“The market is done with needed correction,” declared one broker.
…
“There continues to be extremely low inventory levels and high buyer demand which is causing multiple offers in many local areas,” reported OB Jacobi, president of Windermere Real Estate. He also noted a “definite uptick” in the number of cash buyers, “many of which are investors.”
…
Frank Wilson, another MLS director and the branch managing broker at John L. Scott Real Estate, described the current market as “the best of most worlds: low interest rates, a supply of homes to choose from that are aggressively priced, and lenders who are beginning to engage in ‘make sense’ loans.”

Moorhead noted short sales are up significantly from two years ago “and now outpace bank owned (REO) listings,” prompting outreach to hesitant sellers. “We all have a call out to sellers who are on the fence to remind them this is the first ‘sellers market’ we have seen since 2007. This also means sellers who were on the edge of being in a short sale situation may actually be on the positive side of the ledger,” he added.

It’s always a great time to buy or sell a home! I also love the claim that somehow today’s market is great for buyers because of “a supply of homes to choose from.” Never mind that it’s the smallest supply we’ve seen since they started keeping records.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: More buyers, few sellers, push up King County home prices

Inventory — or a lack of it — is driving King County’s residential real-estate market, brokers and industry observers say. Statistics released Wednesday by the listing service underscore the impact.

Countywide, just 3,720 houses were on the market as of Nov. 30, 14 percent fewer than at the end of October and 43 percent fewer than a year ago.

Inventory always dips in winter. But it hasn’t been this low since at least 1999.

Closed sales in November, however, were up 19 percent year-over-year. There were 16 percent more closings than new listings last month.

As usual, a straightforward take on the latest data from Eric Pryne. Nothing overly sensational and a clear explanation of the various factors that are driving the market.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Seattle-area house prices surge

“Incredible,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Research at the University of Washington. “I’m surprised by how much they’ve jumped.”

Median prices can go up if there’s a change in the makeup of houses that sell in a given month. It could be, for instance, that buyers are taking advantage of record low interest rates to buy pricier houses. Indexes that look at repeat sales of the same houses have shown smaller gains.

But the median price “is indicative of how much money people are spending in the marketplace,” Crellin said.

It “certainly” reflects the extremely low inventory of homes for sale, particularly nice homes close to urban centers, he added. “There are bidding wars.”

I still think it’s a stretch to describe what’s going on right now as a “surge” in home prices. Bank-owned sales have fallen through the floor, so when we compare the median sale price in November 2011 to the median sale price in November 2012 we’re looking at two very different sets of homes.

Herald Staff, Everett Herald: Home sales steady in number, higher in price

The number of homes sold last month in Snohomish County was on par with November 2011, but prices were up.

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service indicated in a report Wednesday that a total of 806 single-family homes and condos sold in the county last month.

That’s half of the entire “story” from the Herald this month. Apparently they didn’t have anyone available to write a real piece this month.

Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune: Pierce County home sales, prices continue to rise

Pierce County home sales and median prices rose in November, the second consecutive month in which both categories showed improvement, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service data released Wednesday.

Home sales increased nearly 11 percent to 841 units last month from 758 units from November 2011, the combined single-family residence and condo data show. Median prices rose, too, climbing 5.5 percent to $195,000 last month from $184,848 a year ago, the combined data show.

And that’s about half of the News Tribune’s story, too.

Rolf Boone, The Olympian: Increases in Thurston home sales stop

An eight-month streak of improved home sales in Thurston County came to an end in November as sales fell 11 percent, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service released Wednesday.

Thurston County home sales fell 11.66 percent to 197 units last month from 223 units in November 2011, the combined single-family residence and condo data show.

Several Thurston County real estate brokers could not be reached to comment on November’s data.

Now that is interesting. I did not notice that home sales were down year-over-year in Thurston. I’ll have to look at this a bit more in the next few weeks to see if there’s anything more noteworthy behind this blip in Thurston.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 12.05.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 12.05.2012)
(Herald Staff, Everett Herald, 12.05.2012)
(Rolf Boone, Tacoma News Tribune, 12.05.2012)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 12.06.2012)

The post Reporting Roundup: Market Momentum Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

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Seattle’s apartment boom extends far beyond Ballard. Nearly 8,400 units are under construction in the city now — the largest number in at least 20 years, according to Dupre + Scott.

Developers are building them because demand has risen, led by a demographic surge of young adults who prefer in-city living, at a time when there’s little new supply.

Few projects were built during the recession. The last new complex in Ballard opened more than two years ago.

But analysts such as Cain and Dupre + Scott’s Mike Scott forecast that, in a year or so, all the new construction will start to tip the balance between demand and supply.

Vacancies will rise, they say. Rents will stabilize, perhaps drop. Landlords will start offering tenants concessions like free rent again.

And the turnaround could be most dramatic in neighborhoods like Ballard where developers have been most active.

“That submarket is getting an awful lot of product in a very short time,” says Scott. “It’s bound to have an impact.”

“It … could be a disaster,” Cain, whose clients are mostly landlords, wrote of Ballard nearly a year ago.

“Except, of course, for the tenants.”

It’s definitely worth reading the whole thing. It definitely sounds like the apartment rental market is going to get a lot more competitive (in renters’ favor) soon.

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There are many problems that are common to western Washington homes that are virtually invisible in the summer when the sun is shining and everything’s coming up roses:

• leaks in the roof
• leaks in the basement or crawl space
• mold or musty smells in various rooms
• flooding or overall muddiness in the yard
• poor insulation
• bad window or door seals
• poor street drainage

In addition to all of the potential water-intrusion-related issues that rainy days can reveal about a home, looking at homes when it’s cloudy gives you a good idea of how much natural light the rooms will have during the type of day that’s most common in the Seattle area.

There are few things worse for a home buyer than purchasing a home in the summer, moving in and getting settled, only to learn of major water intrusion issues six months later when two inches of rain falls from the sky and goes straight into your basement.

When you’re buying a home, it’s best to try to see it in the worst possible conditions so you can get a good idea of what kinds of problems you might face should you buy the home. On the flip side, when you’re selling a home you would of course prefer to show it to buyers in the best possible conditions, so it’s no surprise that late spring and summer tend to be the time of year that sees the largest number of new listings.

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To kick things off, here’s an excerpt from the NWMLS press release:

Housing recovery continues with prices rising as inventory dips to lowest level since 2006

“Jump!” by Flickr user mao_lini

Last month’s housing inventory around western Washington fell to its lowest level since February 2006, according to statistics from Northwest Multiple Listing Service.
…
The shortage of inventory is helping propel prices. J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, commented on the correlation of sharply reduced inventory and rising prices. “The rise in prices is derived from seasonally strong sales activity in a shortage of inventory market,” he remarked.

That comment makes no sense. The median price is down $10,000 from its summer peak, so how could “seasonally strong sales activity” (whatever that even means) have anything to do with the current price trend?

Unfortunately that’s the most interesting bit in their release. It seems that even the home salespeople that run the show over there are having a hard time coming up with anything new to say about this boring market.

Read on for my take on this month’s local news reports.

Eric Pryne, Seattle Times: Home sales rise while inventory plummets in October

October’s 16 percent rise in the median single-family sale price in King County was the biggest year-over-year jump since July 2006.

But that increase is somewhat misleading.

House prices took a big drop in October 2011, with the median falling to $320,000 after hovering in the $345,000-350,000 range for several months.

This October’s $370,000 median looks strong in comparison. But the median has been slightly higher, between $375,000 and $380,000, in each of the past four months.

Another factor in the big year-over-year increase: The mix of houses selling has changed.

In October 2011, bank-repossessed houses, which are generally priced lower, made up 21 percent of all sales in King County, according to Redfin. Last month, that figure was just 7 percent.

As usual, Eric hits the nail on the head. It is such a refreshing change from the bubble years to have a competent, coherant real estate reporter at the Seattle Times who doesn’t just regurgitate the breathless sales spin from the MLS and local agents.

Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I: Home prices post biggest jump in six years

King County house prices registered their biggest gain in more than six years in October, according to a new report.

The median price of a house that sold in October was $370,000, up 15.6 percent from a year earlier, the Northwest Multiple Listing Service reported Monday. That’s the biggest year-to-year jump since July 2006, although the median price is still down 23 percent from its peak in July 2007.
…
“Wow. Things are certainly going very very well for the county,” said Glenn Crellin, associate director of the Runstad Center for Real Estate Studies at the University of Washington.

That said, the big boost to the median sales price is “probably an overstatement of what would be viewed as ‘appreciation,’” Crellin said.

One reason for this is that sales of homes in or under threat of foreclosure are down from last year, as a share of all homes, Crellin said. Such homes typically sell at a discount. Meanwhile, sales of higher-end homes in better condition and locations are picking up, he said.

Glenn Crellin, representing the voice of reason.

Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald: Local real estate sales prices up 11 percent in October

Snohomish County’s housing market mirrored the rest of Western Washington in October, with listings at their lowest level since February 2006 driving year-over-year sales prices up by double digits for the first time since March 2007.

No real meat in the Herald today, just some regurgitated press release quotes. Disappointing.

John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune: Home prices up in Pierce and Thurston counties on shrinking supply

Single family home prices showed a significant rebound in Pierce, King and Thurston counties last month as the supply of homes on the market continued to shrink.

The median Pierce County home sales price rose by 6.97 percent to $201,000 in October, reported the Northwest Multiple Listing Service. In Thurston County, median prices rose to $220,000 from $212,500, and in King County, median home sales prices hit $370,000, up 15.63 percent from $320,000 a year ago October.

Same story in the News Tribune. Just a handful of numbers with no real insights.

John Gillie, The Olympian: Sales, prices for condos, homes increase from ’11

Single-family home prices showed a significant rebound in year-over-year comparisons in Pierce, King and Thurston counties last month as the supply of homes on the market continued to shrink.

Wait a minute… this is the same article that was in the News Tribune. I guess Olympia is basically the same as Tacoma. Or something.

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 11.05.2012)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 11.05.2012)
(Kurt Batdorf, Everett Herald, 11.05.2012)
(John Gillie, Tacoma News Tribune, 11.05.2012)
(John Gillie, The Olympian, 11.06.2012)

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