Seattle Bubble

This is not really new news for many of you , but the story circulating around news organizations and blogs about a buyer who has filed suit against their agent mentions a twist. Aside from the main story is the “smaller” issue that the agent evidently also arranged the buyers financing. At least that is how I interpreted it, although I could be open for correction.

Agency (who is representing who in a purchase and sale transaction for those new to buying) is a tough thing to sort out for some consumers. In Washington State, agency law has gone through several variations and changes throughout the years.

But, when an agent is actually representing a buyer in a fiduciary capacity and then places their loan officer hat on, with no fiduciary duty as of today (could be changing), it makes for some potentially serious complications when things go sideways during a transaction.

Speaking solely for myself, if I were an agent, knowing what I know about the challenges they encounter, there is no way I would ever want to put myself, livelihood or assets at risk by playing a dual role.

I’ve never played with a live grenade before…..but, sheesh, acting as a buyer’s agent and arranging their financing is just not my recipe for fun. It’s exciting enough working in the escrow business thank you very much.

PS. If any of you have not had a chance yet this season to grab your boards out of the basement, do so, because the snow has been superb this season.

The inspiration for this post is from the existing homeowners, prospective homeowners and allied real estate professionals that have corresponded with me and commented on this blog over months past to the present.

I’ve learned and received much more than I’ve provided on this blog I assure you, but the common theme I’ve come away with is that consumers want authentic advice and to trust the people who are assisting them with their real estate endeavors. They want value and to know how real estate professionals will earn their business. The following is what consumers want:

Dear Real Estate Professional,

• I want to be treated like a partner, not a “lead” or a means to an end.

• I want relevant information, fast and accurate.

• I want to know why I shouldn’t buy a particular home and why I should.

• If my objective is to build equity, I want solid advice based upon my ownership horizon.

• I want to know exactly how my agent is being paid and by whom.

• I want to know if my mortgage broker’s company or my agent’s brokerage firm has any financial interests in the referrals they give me for third party providers (mortgage, escrow, title, insurance, etc….). I want to know these disclosures at the start of our working relationship, not when I’m signing my loan or closing papers.

• I want to know how my mortgage broker is being paid or if any of the associated fees are duplicate in nature or unnecessary.

• I want my best financial and personal interests to be looked after in my transaction.

• I want to know exactly what the market conditions are. I don’t want to learn about the market conditions from other sources after the fact……

…..Three factors caused this decade’s housing boom to spiral upwards: 1) a run-up in home price valuations that spurred a high sense of urgency in home buying and selling; 2) poor lending practices, which caused many homebuyers to secure loans that they ultimately couldn’t afford over the long term; and 3) speculative purchases of homes also increased, with buyers investing in real estate with the hope of a quick return-on-investment.

• I want to know what the benefits and detriments are of entering into a multiple offer situation.

• I want to trust you.

• I want to know if there is an incentive of any kind, financial or other benefit, from a seller to you (my agent) and how it impacts me.

• I want my agent to be responsive, authentic and collaborative with everyone in my transaction.

• I want to work with a professional.

• I want you to anticipate potential problems before they occur, not react to them as they are upon us.

• I don’t want to receive my loan documents to sign at the very last possible moment.

• I don’t want to pay for inexperience at the same rate as I do for an experienced professional.

Comment Add on’s:

• I would like choices in the service levels I would like to receive/purchase.

If you do this you for me you will have my business for life and I won’t have to go here when I decide to sell, buy or refinance again.

Sincerely,

Consumer

Theory: Seattle is special, and thanks to our strong local economy anchored by such heavyweights as Boeing and Microsoft, any economic or housing pain will affect us far less than other parts of the country.

Reality:

Conclusion: Er… Um… Jobs! Population Growth! Mountains! Lakes! Pretty Pretty Pink Ponies!

We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming.

2007 Revisited
It’s that time of the year again. As the calendar rolls over, the real estate predictions start rolling in. But before we get to the predictions for 2008, let’s look back at 2007.

My own guesses as well as predictions from most of the frequently-quoted local real estate insiders were covered in this post from last January, save for Steve Tytler, whose predictions are covered here. Let’s see how we all did.

The Contenders:

• Bill Riss, chief executive of Coldwell Banker Bain
• Randy Bannecker, consultant housing specialist for the Seattle-King County Association of Realtors
• Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research
• Matthew Gardner, local land-use economist
• Steve Tytler, owner, Best Mortgage
• Tim Ellis, editor-in-chief, Seattle Bubble

You can go back to the post to see the full context of all of our predictions. However, for this post, I have condensed everyone’s predictions into a convenient table format for your convenience:

And the person whose predictions most closely matched the 2007 outcome was… Tim Ellis of Seattle Bubble! Steve Tytler gets the honor of being the only other person to be at all accurate, with his generic prediction of a “big increase” in inventory and a general reduction of buyers.

Note that the final reported median price change was almost exactly in the middle of my estimated range of -5% to +3%. And although my inventory and sales forecasts were the closest of the bunch, reality was unbelievably even more extreme than my predictions. So I either got pretty darn lucky, or after one year of following the market in my spare time, I had a better sense of where it was headed than the majority of those whose very livelihood is the market.

2008 Prognosticated
So that brings us to the 2008 forecast. First up, let’s check out what some of the same local real estate insiders are guessing this year:

Glenn Crellin:

Year-to-year drops should continue “for a little while,” said Glenn Crellin, director of the Washington Center for Real Estate Research at Washington State University. “I think that the next several months are still going to be challenging, but it’s a little hard to tell,” he said, adding that he also expects interest rates to increase during most of the year, potentially wiping out any savings gained by waiting.

Glenn also made some more specific predictions for the Pierce County market in a Q&A with the Tacoma News Tribune.

Matthew Gardner:

For 2008, Gardner is predicting anywhere from zero appreciation to home prices falling as much as 5 percent. “Do I think we’re going to see pain next year? Yes, I do. If there’s some glimmer of hope, it’s the fact we didn’t get terribly overbuilt because of the expense of land,” Gardner says.

Steve Tytler:

I expect home prices to drop about 10 percent to 20 percent over the next year or so, and then the housing market will flatten out with very little appreciation or depreciation for a few years.

Dick Conway:

Conway anticipates average Puget Sound-region home prices will decline less than 1 percent next year, and sales will be down about 5 percent, before rebounding in 2008. “Given that we had a pretty good run-up in prices, some downward adjustment shouldn’t be surprising,” he says.

It would appear that after being so off base with last year’s optimistic forecasts, most of this year’s predictions are a bit more down to earth. The general concensus seems to be price declines of up to five percent. As with last year, Mr. Tytler is the most bearish of the bunch, and will probably be the most accurate as well.

The Tim’s Predictions
Personally, I’m expecting to see a continued surge in inventory, with year-over-year increases between 10% and 25% throughout much of the year. As prices stagnate and drop, the number of “must-sell” homes will only increase. Furthermore, when public sentiment shifts from “buy now or be priced out forever” to “sell now or be stuck there forever,” listings will continue to increase further.

Sales will probably continue their slide as lending standards continue to tighten (regardless of which direction interest rates go). I would guess that sales will be down at least 5% to 15%. Think of it this way: The record sales that we saw in 2005 and 2006 were basically just the housing market borrowing sales from the future. Well, the future is here, and the debt must be repaid.

I do not expect prices to drop like a rock, but I think that 5% is the minimum drop we’ll see in the median, not the maximum. I’d put the range at -5% to -10%.

So there you have it. Your doom and gloom for 2008. I may be way off base, but at least I’m willing to stick my neck out there and give it a guess. I have yet to see any signs that the market is “bottoming out” or at any kind of turning point. 2007 was the turning point, and we’re pretty plainly headed down into 2008. I don’t expect this mess to work itself out before the year is out.

What say you, the readers?

A number of people pointed me toward a “white paper” recently released from real estate brokerage John L. Scott titled “Why Now Is A Smart Time To Buy” (pdf). It purports to be “an objective assessment of the housing market as it stands at the end of 2007″ designed “to help home buyers assess the facts of the real estate market objectively.” With a title like that, it sure sounds “objective” to me…

Let’s have a look inside.

Three factors caused this decade’s housing boom to spiral upwards: 1) a run-up in home price valuations that spurred a high sense of urgency in home buying and selling; 2) poor lending practices, which caused many homebuyers to secure loans that they ultimately couldn’t afford over the long term; and 3) speculative purchases of homes also increased, with buyers investing in real estate with the hope of a quick return-on-investment.

Actually it doesn’t start off too bad. That’s an accurate assessment of the boom, with a rare admission that speculative purchases played a part, implying that this is even the case in our area (since Seattle is where JLS is based).

Like the dot com bust, the housing market has begun to correct itself after a number of years of unwise purchasing, but unlike what the media would have us believe, a correction in the housing market doesn’t equate to a crash. Unfortunately, the ongoing negative news about the troubled areas in the U.S. has caused a ripple effect, with home buyers and sellers on a national level exercising caution before making a decision.

Ok hold on. Did you catch what they said just there? “Unfortunately… buyers and sellers [are] exercising caution…” (emphasis mine). Huh?!? How is it “unfortunate” that people are being more cautious? Oh, right. John L. Scott sells real estate, so they would prefer it if all caution was thrown to the wind. Also, they’re blaming the downturn on “negative news.” That is so laughable it’s not even worth a detailed rebuttal. Here’s a hint though guys: it’s the other way around—the downturn is real, so the news is negative.

The rest of the paper focuses on superficial points that are unlikely to sway any but the most gullible (page numbers refer to the number printed on the page, not the actual pdf page number):

• We’re not as bad as Arizona and California! (p. 2)
• High inventory means more choices for buyers! (p. 2)
• Mortgage rates are low! (pp. 2-3)
• Did we mention we’re not as bad as California? (pp. 3-4)
• Subprime is like practically non-existent. For reals. (p. 5)
• We are so much better than other places in the US like, say… California. (p. 6)
• Never mind the fact that you could wait a year and buy at a lower price—real estate is a long-term investment. (p. 7)
• Here, look at some historical price drops in which the factors of the preceding booms were nothing like they were recently. Those weren’t so bad, so this drop won’t be bad either! (p. 8)
• In summary: Buy, buy, buy! (p. 9)
  

Take a few minutes to read through the pdf. It’s not that any of the things they’re saying are necessarily untrue, it’s just that this is definitely not an “objective assessment.” It’s quite clearly a marketing document intended to dupe cautious home buyers into throwing their money into a freshly-declining market. I hope nobody takes this document seriously.

I’ve added this paper to the library for future reference.

Our fellow blogger colleague “Peckhammer” will get credit for this post whether Peckhammer intended for that to happen or not. Hat tip to him/her for inspiring this post.

Regarding consumers capacity to understand loan documents, Peckhammer remarked :

“The loan documents they signed could have been reviewed by an attorney and explained if there were questions.”

Here’s the problem when looking under the hood at the transaction work flow. May I present you the true world of real estate and high finance:

The facts

• It is Friday, January 11th, at 4:00 pm, about 1hour prior to the escrow office closing.
• Escrow has been promised loan documents on a transaction since early in the week.
• By law, borrowers refinancing have a three day right of rescission (meaning 3 days, not including holidays or Sundays) after signing loan documents to cancel prior to closing.
• The wrinkle: loan documents can be time sensitive. For example, if you are refinancing, you may have an interest rate lock (a term used in the industry where a borrower is guaranteed a specific loan interest rate for a specific loan program) that may expire very soon. Therefore, the loan documents must be signed within the 3 day rescission period and the transaction must close prior to the interest rate lock expiring.
• Escrow receives loan documents at 4:30pm. What in the world?!…..says escrow staff.
• Escrow is “expected” to drop all other transaction work (escrow is very time stressed due to a lot of other things going on “under the hood” for other people) and work up the loan documents, prepare a settlement statement (HUD-1 Form for those unfamiliar which is a detailed itemization of fees and credits associated with the transaction) and schedule the clients to sign their paperwork.
• Are the clients at work? Have an evening planned? Guess who gets to call the clients with the urgent message which will more than likely put the borrowers into a, how shall I say, grumpy mood. And yes, it’s escrow’s fault; after all, escrow just pays the water bills (sacrcasm & humor on).
• To escrow, this is a frequent and absurd scenario that plays out all too commonly.

How does it impact you as a borrower?

• It is inconvenient as !#!*%!! for the borrower to be called at 5:30pm on a Friday to tell the borrower they MUST sign their loan docs or…. dominoes start falling.
• Or, worse, if this is a purchase, you have the pressure of signing because this little thing called losing earnest money is eating you up in the back of your mind, never mind the fact your belongings are in boxes and the seller is nearly moved out, and your newborn child has started crying in the office where you are trying to sign loan papers.
• Call an attorney to review your loan documents? Not going to happen.
• How can you have time to digest the loan docs when the only time you’ve seen them is when I show up with them? Remember, escrow tells you the facts, we don’t dispense legal advice or advice about how the loan will impact you financially.
• Thankfully, in a refinance transaction you have a 3-day right of rescission. For purchases, you get NOTHING. Zippo.

Solution?

• Enforce RESPA (Real Estate Settlement & Procedures Act) to include a provision for a borrower to receive loan documents 3-5 full business days prior to closing when PURCHASING. If they don’t, fine the lender. Currently, as it stands, borrowers are required to have 24hrs review of their Settlement Statement (HUD -1 Form) prior to closing. That’s a joke IMHO. In Washington State, generally, closing occurs when funds are available for disbursement and recording of documents (Deed of Trust, Statutory Warranty Deed) have been completed.

• Ask your loan officer that you would like a full week prior to closing to review loan documents and your Settlement Statement. This puts the transaction management squarely where it should be, on the “Conductor of your Orchestra:” loan officer and or agent. If the loan officer waffles at getting loan documents to escrow to prepare for you well before closing you should ask them, why not?
• Also, never forget to go shopping, even for third party providers such as escrow.

Is this scenario based upon a real transaction (s) ?

True or False. I’ll give you a hint. It starts with a “T.”

S-Crow

PS. I’ve seen rates today at 5.375% for a 30 yr fixed.