In this graph I flip the variables in the affordability index calculation around to other sides of the equation to calculate what price home the a family earning the median household income could afford to buy at today’s mortgage rates if they put 20% down and spent 30% of their monthly income.

A slight increase in interest rates from 3.35% in December to 3.57% in March caused the “affordable” home price to decrease slightly. Rates dipped a bit in April to 3.45%, and the “affordable” home in King County now sits at $478,343, with a monthly payment of $1,707.

Here’s the alternate view on this data, where I flip the numbers around to calculate the household income required to make the median-priced home affordable at today’s mortgage rates, and compare that to actual median household incomes.

As of April, a household would need to earn $57,121 a year to be able to afford the median-priced $400,000 home in King County (up from $49,732 in January). Meanwhile, the actual median household income is around $68,000.

If interest rates were 6% (around the pre-bust level), the “affordable” home price would drop down to $356,054—11% below the current median price of $400,000, and the income necessary to buy a median-priced home would be $76,742—12% above the current median income. In other words, low rates are basically the only thing keeping prices high right now.

The post Low Rates Prop Up the Affordable Home Price appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As a reminder, the affordability index is based on three factors: median single-family home price as reported by the NWMLS, 30-year monthly mortgage rates as reported by the Federal Reserve, and estimated median household income as reported by the Washington State Office of Financial Management.

The historic standard for affordable housing is that monthly costs do not exceed 30% of one’s income. Therefore, the formula for the affordability index is as follows:

For a more detailed examination of what the affordability index is and what it isn’t, I invite you to read this 2009 post. Or, to calculate your the affordability of your own specific income and home price scenario, check out my Affordability Calculator.

So how does affordability look as of April? Good, but definitely not great:

I’ve marked where affordability would be if interest rates were at a more sane level of 6%. An affordability index of 89.0 is slightly above where the index was in August 2005 when I first started Seattle Bubble (rates were 5.82% at the time). We’re definitely on an unsustainable trajectory right now, and the affordability index is only good thanks to still-crazy-low interest rates. Hopefully prices will level off before things get really out of hand.

Here’s a look at the index for Snohomish County and Pierce County since 2000:

Similar situation, but things haven’t taken quite as steep a plunge over the last few months.

Tomorrow I’ll post updated versions of my charts of the “affordable” home price and income required to afford the median-priced home.

The post Home Affordability Tanking in 2013 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As of April, the non-distressed median price for King County single family home sales sits at $444,000, up 6.5% from a year earlier and up 3.3% from March. Last year the month-over-month increase was about the same, up 3.0% March to April.

The bank-owned median sale price was at $200,100 in April, up 9.9% from a year earlier. The short sale median price came in at $255,100 in April, up 6.3% from 2012.

Here’s a look at the price per square foot broken down by distress status:

The median price per square foot of non-distressed homes was up just 4.2% from 2012. The bank-owned median price per square foot shot up a whopping 20.7%, while the short sale median price per square foot was up 7.4%.

It seems that most of the big price gains right now are in bank-owned homes, while the overall median is increasing more dramatically thanks to the overall shift away from the cheaper distressed properties.

The post Non-Distressed Median Price per SqFt Up 4.2% from 2012 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The low point of the last few years was 5.7% in November. I wouldn’t be surprised to see us drop below that level in the next few months.

Short sales inched up a bit in the month, rising from 9.2% in March to 9.9% in April. A year ago 11.6% of sales in the county were short sales.

Later this week we’ll take a look at how the median prices are moving for bank-owned homes, short sales, and non-distressed sales.

The post Bank-Owned Sales Inched Down Again in April appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

April 2013
King: 746 NTS, up 69% YOY
Snohomish: 420 NTS, up 53% YOY
Pierce: 598 NTS, up 124% YOY

Same story as most of this year: still above last year’s levels but down month-over-month across the board.

Here’s your interactive Tableau dashboard updated with the latest foreclosure data:

The percentage of households in the chart above is determined using OFM population estimates and household sizes from the 2000 Census. King County came in at 1 NTS per 1,108 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 655 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 524 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate for April of one foreclosure for every 878 housing units was 14th highest among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using, and includes Notice of Default, Lis Pendens, Notice of Trustee Sale, and Real Estate Owned.

Hit the jump for a larger version of the chart that shows the percentage of households in each county receiving a foreclosure notice each month:

Note: The graphs above are derived from monthly Notice of Trustee Sale counts gathered at King, Snohomish, and Pierce County records. For a longer-term picture of King County foreclosures back to 1979, hit this chart and drag the date slider to its full range. For the full legal definition of what a Notice of Trustee Sale is and how it fits into the foreclosure process, check out RCW 61.24.040. The short version is that it is the notice sent to delinquent borrowers that their home will be repossessed in 90 days.

The post Foreclosures Still Shrinking Around Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

“Multiple offers have become the new normal,” remarked MLS director Diedre Haines, the Snohomish County regional managing broker at Coldwell Banker Bain. “We have literally gone off the charts in absorption,” she stated, adding the dip in pending sales in that county “is all due to lack of inventory.”

Haines also reported low appraisals remain a problem as appraisers struggle to keep up with the fast paced activity and increasing values.

I love the twisted thinking that “low appraisals” are “a problem.” Isn’t the whole point of an appraisal to protect the bank from overlending on a property? Perhaps the “problem” isn’t low appraisals but over-zealous buyers willing to pay too much.

All righty, on with our usual monthly stats.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

April 2013	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	3,221	+8.4%	-34.6%
Closed Sales	2,096	+14.8%	+18.5%
SAAS (?)	1.37	+0.5%	-4.1%
Pending Sales	3,221	+4.0%	+7.2%
Months of Supply	1.06	+4.2%	-39.0%
Median Price*	$400,000	+2.0%	+11.1%

Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003 format), but keep in mind the caution above.

As forecasted last week in our stats preview, inventory actually gained a bit from March to April. The 8.4% month-over-month increase is the largest we’ve seen since March 2010. Perhaps the inventory crunch is finally starting to ease, but we can’t really jump to any conclusions from a single month of data.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

This was also one of the largest month-over-month increases we’ve seen in closed sales, so it’s a pleasant surprise that inventory was able to keep up.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

This chart puts last month’s inventory increase into perspective. We’ve got a long ways to go to get back to anything resembling a normal market.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the “demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.

The direction of the listings curve is encouraging, but the sales curve took another turn upward, indicating increasing competition among buyers.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Big drop in the year-over-year price gains, falling from 19% last month to 11% this month.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.

April 2013: $400,000
March 2006: $405,000

I haven’t seen any articles about the numbers yet at the Times and P-I, but I’ll update this post when they’re posted.

[Update: Here they are.]
Seattle Times: Home prices reach $400K amid tight inventory
Seattle P-I: King County house price back up to $400,000

Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.

The post NWMLS: Inventory Inched Up in April appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, here’s the summary snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Summary: Foreclosures fell again, sales rose some more, and inventory looks like it actually made a decent month-to-month gain. Hit the jump for the full suite of our usual monthly charts.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County rose 14% from March to April, and were up 25% year-over-year, which is a slightly larger year-over-year gain than in March.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish rose 17% month-over-month and 31% from April 2012.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Same story we’ve seen all year: Both counties are well above their respective 2012 levels, but both also experienced a month-over-month drop. It’s the third straight month of declines in King County. Unless foreclosures experience a sudden spike, we’ll probably be seeing year-over-year drops by July, possibly even June.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Since Trustee Deeds are on a delayed cycle from notices, they rose month-over-month, to a 19-month high.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

Finally some good news for buyers. Last year King County inventory fell 1.0% between March and April. This year it rose 6.6%. Similar story in Snohomish County: last year listings fell 3.1%, this year they were up 5.1%. Here’s hoping it’s the start of a positive trend for inventory.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post April Stats Preview: Finally Some Inventory Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $252,611 (down 0.6%)
• Mid Tier: $252,611 – $403,620
• Hi Tier: > $403,620 (down 0.6%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through February 2013.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

The middle tier took a bit of a hit in February, the high tier was basically flat, and the low tier increased. Between January and February, the low tier rose 0.5%, the middle tier was down 0.7%, and the high tier lost 0.1%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through February 2013.

The biggest gainer in year-over-year growth was the high tier this month, which had a 1.5-point boost. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of February – Low: +10.0%, Med: +10.5%, Hi: +9.0%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Current standing is 37.9% off peak for the low tier, 29.1% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.5% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 04.30.2013)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Gains, Middle Tier Loses appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down 0.2% January to February
Up 9.3% YOY.
Down 26.7% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 0.8% from January to February and year-over-year prices were down 2.9%.

I was actually expecting a bit of a bump up from January to February, so it’s a little surprising to see a slight drop. I’m 99% certain we’ll see an increase next month though.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle’s position for month-over-month changes dropped slightly from #13 in January to #15 in February.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In February, twelve of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one more than January):

• Phoenix at +23.0%
• San Francisco at +18.9%
• Las Vegas at +17.6%
• Atlanta, GA at +16.5%
• Detroit at +15.2%
• Los Angeles at +14.1%
• Minneapolis at +12.0%
• Miami at +10.4%
• San Diego at +10.2%
• Tampa at +10.0%
• Denver at +9.9%
• Portland at +9.4%

Eight cities gained less than Seattle as of February: Dallas, Washington DC, Charlotte, Cleveland, Boston, Chicago, and New York.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through February.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the sixty-seven months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 26.7%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of February: January 2005.

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 04.30.2013)

The post Case-Shiller: February Home Prices Dipped Slightly appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, year-over-year job growth, broken down into a few relevant sectors:

Construction growth dipped again, dropping from a 5.9% year-over-year gain in February to 5.2% in March. With 6.4% year-over-year growth, the retail sector was again the fastest-growing in March.

Here’s a look at the overall Seattle area unemployment rate compared to the national rate:

Unemployment had another big drop yet in Seattle between February and March, and dipped at the state and national level as well. Washington State’s unemployment is still below the national rate, while the Seattle area continues to do much better than Washington State and the nation as a whole. March unemployment came in at 7.6% for the US, 7.3% for Washington, and 5.5% for the Seattle area.

The post Seattle Unemployment Drops Again as Job Gains Continue appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Sales across all price tiers got a big boost in March, while the sales curve stayed basically the same shape as February. The mode (i.e. the bucket with the most sales) for non-distressed sales moved from the $400,000 to $450,000 bucket in February down to the $300,000 to $350,000 bucket in March, but all four buckets between $250,000 and $450,000 were within 6 non-distressed sales of each other.

Sales of non-distressed homes over $1 million shot up from just 66 in February to 105 in March, close to the highest point we’ve seen in over three years.

To generate the chart below, I took all the sales data for single-family homes sold in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties from the beginning of 2010 through the end of March. Since my data download puts late-reported sales into the month that the sale actually took place rather than in the month they were reported, there is a slight difference in the number of sales I’m counting vs. what the NWMLS reports each month.

By default the chart shows just King County sales in March. Use the controls below to scroll through different months, or to see what the mix looks like for Snohomish or Pierce County. I’ve also added color-coding and controls to separate out “non-distressed” sales from the sales of bank-owned homes and short sales.

As you explore the data for yourself I’d love to hear what stands out to you. Let me know in the comments!

The post All Sale Price Tiers Bumped Up in March appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As of March, the non-distressed median price for King County single family home sales sits at $432,000, up 6.7% from a year earlier and up 1.6% from February. Not much of an increase for this time of year. Last year prices jumped 5.0% month over month in March.

The bank-owned median sale price was at $186,500 in March, up 3.6% from a year earlier. The short sale median price came in at $250,000 in March, down 6.0% from 2012.

Here’s a look at the price per square foot broken down by distress status:

The median price per square foot of non-distressed homes was up just 5.0% from 2012. The bank-owned median price per square foot shot up a whopping 23.4%, while the short sale median price per square foot was up 6.3%.

The post Non-Distressed Median Price Gains Slow appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

March 2013
King: 795 NTS, up 33% YOY
Snohomish: 462 NTS, up 32% YOY
Pierce: 605 NTS, up 57% YOY

All three counties still above their levels from a year ago, although the difference is rapidly shrinking. Month-over-month was a mixed bag: King was down 5%, Snohomish was flat, and Pierce increased 5%.

Here’s your interactive Tableau dashboard updated with the latest foreclosure data:

The percentage of households in the chart above is determined using OFM population estimates and household sizes from the 2000 Census. King County came in at 1 NTS per 1,060 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 600 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 538 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate for February of one foreclosure for every 687 housing units was 9th highest among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using, and includes Notice of Default, Lis Pendens, Notice of Trustee Sale, and Real Estate Owned.

Hit the jump for a larger version of the chart that shows the percentage of households in each county receiving a foreclosure notice each month:

Note: The graphs above are derived from monthly Notice of Trustee Sale counts gathered at King, Snohomish, and Pierce County records. For a longer-term picture of King County foreclosures back to 1979, hit this chart and drag the date slider to its full range. For the full legal definition of what a Notice of Trustee Sale is and how it fits into the foreclosure process, check out RCW 61.24.040. The short version is that it is the notice sent to delinquent borrowers that their home will be repossessed in 90 days.

The post Foreclosure Notices Around Seattle Flat in March appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As predicted, after bumping up in January and February, the sales of bank owned-homes fell in March.

Short sales also decreased in March, falling from 12.2% in February to 9.4% in March. Down from 10.3% in March 2012, and the lowest point since October 2011.

Next week we’ll take a look at how the median prices are moving for bank-owned homes, short sales, and non-distressed sales.

The post Distressed Sales Tumbled in March appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, here’s the summary snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Summary: Foreclosures continued to fall, sales bounced up from February, and inventory might have fallen to another new low. Hit the jump for the full suite of our usual monthly charts.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County rose 34.1% from February to March, and were up 23.7% year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish rose 25.4% month-over-month and 16.3% from March 2012.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Both counties are still quite a bit higher than where they were at the same time last year, but the difference keeps shrinking, and King County fell a bit month-over-month.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds shot up month-over-month (predictable given the spike in notices back in July) and were up 96.7% from a year earlier.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

Last year King County inventory fell 3.9% between February and March. This year it fell 0.1%. Similar story in Snohomish County, where listings fell 1.3% from February to March, not nearly as much as last year’s 9.6% drop.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post March Stats Preview: Fewer Foreclosure Notices Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $254,140 (down 0.8%)
• Mid Tier: $254,140 – $405,866
• Hi Tier: > $405,866 (down 0.6%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through January 2013.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

The middle and high tiers dropped slightly in January, but the low tier actually gained a bit. Between December and January, the low tier rose 0.4%, the middle tier was down 0.4%, and the high tier lost 0.1%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through January 2013.

The low tier gained nearly four percentage points in the year-over-year standings between December and January. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of January – Low: +9.0%, Med: +11.1%, Hi: +8.7%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Current standing is 38.2% off peak for the low tier, 28.6% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.5% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 03.26.2013)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: Low Tier Inched Up in January appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down 0.3% December to January
Up 8.7% YOY.
Down 26.5% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 0.7% from December to January and year-over-year prices were down 4.0%.

Another month without any real surprises. A typical seasonal drop, but slightly smaller than what we saw at the same time last year, so another bump up in the year-over-year growth.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

After coming in near the top in November, Seattle moved up from the #17 spot for month-over-month changes in December to the #13 spot in January:

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In January, eleven of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (one more than December):

• Phoenix at +23.2%
• San Francisco at +17.5%
• Las Vegas at +15.3%
• Detroit at +13.8%
• Atlanta, GA at +13.4%
• Los Angeles at +12.1%
• Minneapolis at +12.1%
• Miami at +10.8%
• San Diego at +9.8%
• Denver at +9.2%
• Tampa at +8.9%

Eight cities gained less than Seattle as of January: Portland, Dallas, Charlotte, Washington DC, Cleveland, Boston, Chicago, and New York. New York finally moved into year-over-year gains in January.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through January.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the sixty-six months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 26.5%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of January: Still basically February 2005.

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 03.26.2013)

The post Case-Shiller: January Home Prices Calm Before the Storm appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up the median list and sale prices per square foot. Note that the list price below includes all homes on the market, whether or not they eventually sell, so it tends to be biased toward higher numbers than the sale price chart.

After ramping up steeply last spring and early summer, sale prices hit a bit of a peak in September, and have been basically plateaued since then. Listing prices dove at the close of the year and are shooting back up in early 2013 faster than we’ve seen in years, but so far this has not carried through to sale prices.

The total number of listings on the market continues to fall to ever-more-depressing levels:

And the latest average sale-to-list ratio came in at 99.4%, the highest it’s been since sometime before 2010 and probably since 2005 or 2006.

It’s interesting to me that despite record low inventory, and increasingly frequent multiple offers, the average sale-to-list ratio is still below 100% here in the Seattle area.

No doubt there are many homes that are selling above asking price, but an average below 100% coupled with prices that are basically flat since September suggests to me that the market is not quite to the point where I’d call it “overheated” just yet.

Full disclosure: The Tim is employed by Redfin.

The post Sale Prices Plateau as Listings Keep Tanking appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, year-over-year job growth, broken down into a few relevant sectors:

Construction growth fell off, dropping from an 8.2% year-over-year gain in January to just 5.4% in February, and the over ten percent gains we saw in that sector in the original December data was erased by revised data. With 6% year-over-year growth, the retail sector actually eclipsed construction as the fastest-growing in February.

Here’s a look at the overall Seattle area unemployment rate compared to the national rate:

Unemployment fell yet again in Seattle between January and February while it continued to flat-line nationally. Washington State’s unemployment is still below the national rate, while the Seattle area is still outperforming Washington State and the nation as a whole. February unemployment came in at 7.7% for the US, 7.5% for Washington, and 5.9% for the Seattle area.

The post Job Gains Moderate in February as Unemployment Dips appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

After sharpening in January, the sales curve flattened out again in February, with home sales between $200,000 and $300,000 taking a hit while home sales between $400,000 and $500,000 bumped up. The mode (i.e. the bucket with the most sales) for non-distressed sales moved from the $250,000 to $300,000 bucket in January back up to the $350,000 to $400,000 bucket in February, but the $400,000 to $450,000 bucket was just one sale shy of matching that level.

These results match up with my expecations that the mode will continue to shift toward the expensive ranges as we head into spring.

To generate the chart below, I took all the sales data for single-family homes sold in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties from the beginning of 2010 through the end of February. Since my data download puts late-reported sales into the month that the sale actually took place rather than in the month they were reported, there is a slight difference in the number of sales I’m counting vs. what the NWMLS reports each month.

By default the chart shows just King County sales in February. Use the controls below to scroll through different months, or to see what the mix looks like for Snohomish or Pierce County. I’ve also added color-coding and controls to separate out “non-distressed” sales from the sales of bank-owned homes and short sales.

As you explore the data for yourself I’d love to hear what stands out to you. Let me know in the comments!

The post Sales of $200K-$300K Homes Dipped in February appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, here’s the summary snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Summary: Foreclosures dipped, sales inched up from January, while inventory dropped just slightly. Hit the jump for the full suite of our usual monthly charts.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Sales in King County rose 4.4% from January to February, and were up 19.8% year-over-year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish fell 10.8% month-over-month and rose 6.2% from February 2012.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Both counties were still way above where they were at the same time last year, but it’s the smallest year-over-year gain in five months, and a decent drop month-over-month in both counties.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee Deeds fell month-over-month and were up 31.7% from a year earlier.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

Last year King County inventory fell 3.7% between January and February. This year it fell 0.9%. Similar story in Snohomish County, where listings fell 0.7% from January to February.

The post February Stats Preview: Not a Preview Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

February 2013
King: 839 NTS, up 85% YOY
Snohomish: 461 NTS, up 87% YOY
Pierce: 574 NTS, up 101% YOY

All three counties still far higher than they were a year ago, but month-over-month foreclosures in all three counties dropped off: King was down 21%, Snohomish fell 19%, and Pierce decreased 21%.

Here’s your interactive Tableau dashboard updated with the latest foreclosure data:

The percentage of households in the chart above is determined using OFM population estimates and household sizes from the 2000 Census. King County came in at 1 NTS per 1,003 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 601 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 567 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate for February of one foreclosure for every 656 housing units was 5th highest among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using, and includes Notice of Default, Lis Pendens, Notice of Trustee Sale, and Real Estate Owned.

Hit the jump for a larger version of the chart that shows the percentage of households in each county receiving a foreclosure notice each month:

Note: The graphs above are derived from monthly Notice of Trustee Sale counts gathered at King, Snohomish, and Pierce County records. For a longer-term picture of King County foreclosures back to 1979, hit this chart and drag the date slider to its full range. For the full legal definition of what a Notice of Trustee Sale is and how it fits into the foreclosure process, check out RCW 61.24.040. The short version is that it is the notice sent to delinquent borrowers that their home will be repossessed in 90 days.

The post Seattle-Area Foreclosures Dropped Off in February appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As of February, the non-distressed median price for King County single family home sales sits at $427,850, up 10.9% from a year earlier and up 7.0% from January. That’s quite the spike in just one month, even after we back out the bank-owned homes and short sales.

The bank-owned median sale price was at $195,000 in February, up 2.7% from a year earlier. The short sale median price came in at $267,500 in February, down 2.9% from 2012.

Here’s a look at the price per square foot broken down by distress status:

The median price per square foot of non-distressed homes was up quite a bit from 2012 as well, but not by quite as much—a 7.4% gain. The bank-owned median price per square foot was up 7.8%, while the short sale median price per square foot was up 2.3%.

The post Non-Distressed Median Up 11% From 2012 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

This represents a slight increase from January, but if 2013 follows the same pattern as the last couple of years, February will likely be the high point for the year.

Short sales actually decreased a bit in February, falling from 13.7% in January to 12.3% in February (also down from 13.2% in February 2012).

On Friday we’ll take a look at how the median prices are moving for bank-owned homes, short sales, and non-distressed sales.

The post Distressed Sales Bump Up Again in February appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Real estate brokers around Washington state agree today’s market is far different than two years ago, with one industry veteran summing it up by saying key indicators “are in perfect alignment for a spring market to remember.”
…
“In my 37 years working in the real estate industry, I have never seen inventory this low,” remarked Diedre Haines, regional managing broker for Coldwell Bank Bain-Snohomish County and a member of the Northwest MLS board of directors.
…
Compounding the shortage is the fact that about one-fourth of the MLS inventory is classified as “distressed,” meaning they are short sales or bank-owned. Such homes are sometimes in need of significant repairs or have prolonged transaction times, which may make them less desirable.

“The market is struggling to provide enough inventory for anxious buyers seeking to take advantage of low interest rates,” reported Dick Beeson, principal managing broker of RE/MAX Professionals in Tacoma. Also, he lamented, considering 25 percent of the selection is distressed, “It leaves some buyers with tough choices.”

Like a broken record, low inventory is still the big story in today’s market. Every time you think it can’t get any lower, somehow it does.

All righty, on with our usual monthly stats.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

February 2013	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,947	-0.9%	-43.1%
Closed Sales	1,307	-4.1%	+6.3%
SAAS (?)	1.41	+33.9%	-4.0%
Pending Sales	2,469	+17.1%	+1.6%
Months of Supply	1.19	-15.4%	-44.0%
Median Price*	$365,000	+4.3%	+18.5%

Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003 format), but keep in mind the caution above.

For the second month in a row, we’re looking at the lowest months of supply has ever been as far back as my data goes (January 2000). Remember thoug that the NWMLS changed the definition of “active listing” in July 2008, so months of supply before and after that point aren’t really directly comparable. But still… 1.2 months of supply. Crazy.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Not much increase from a year ago, but that’s because there just aren’t many homes to buy.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Another month-to-month decrease. Sigh.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the “demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.

Same story as ever, supply down, demand up.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Slight boost from last month, but we’re still a relatively non-distressed market to a heavily distressed market from a year ago.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.

February 2013: $365,000
March 2005: $362,000

Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.

The post NWMLS: Listings Down Yet Again, Prices Bump Up appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, let’s take a look at the twenty-city month-over-month scorecard. Here’s the original post introducing this chart if you’d like more details. Click the image below for a super-wide version with the data back through 2000.

2012 closed with the strongest fourth quarter of any year since 2005, but it was still considerably weaker than 2000-2005.

Next up, the second derivative. For an introduction to this particular view, hit the original post from March.

The second derivative is still hovering around the 1% level. Anything above zero indicates that price increases are getting stronger each month, so this is still quite a strong signal. I still expect this to move back down toward zero throughout 2013, but possibly not until the second half of the year.

Finally, here’s a look at the number of cities that are experiencing second derivative gains or losses.

Stronger than any period of time except when the homebuyer tax credit was in force.

All in all, price gains are still pretty strong, though things have definitely cooled off somewhat as 2012 drew to a close.

The post December 2012 Case-Shiller Potporri appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $256,154 (down 0.7%)
• Mid Tier: $256,154 – $408,283
• Hi Tier: > $408,283 (down 0.9%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through December 2012.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

All three tiers dropped slightly in December, following the typical seasonal trend for this time of year. Between November and December, the low tier fell 0.1%, the middle tier was down 0.2%, and the high tier lost 0.5%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through December 2012.

The middle tier was the first to mark double-digit gains in December. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of December – Low: +5.2%, Med: +11.1%, Hi: +8.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Current standing is 38.5% off peak for the low tier, 28.4% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.4% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 02.26.2013)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: All Three Tiers Dipped in December appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down 0.5% November to December
Up 8.2% YOY.
Down 26.3% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 1.3% from November to December and year-over-year prices were down 5.6%.

Nothing surprising in this month’s data. We would expect to see a drop in December, and we did. The drop this year was quite a bit smaller than it has been since 2006, but other than that there’s not really anything particularly noteworthy this month.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

After coming in near the top in November, Seattle dropped back down to the #17 spot for month-over-month changes in December:

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In December, ten of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (the same number as November):

• Phoenix at +23.0%
• San Francisco at +14.4%
• Detroit at +13.6%
• Las Vegas at +12.9%
• Minneapolis at +12.2%
• Miami at +10.6%
• Los Angeles at +10.2%
• Atlanta, GA at +9.9%
• San Diego at +9.2%
• Denver at +8.5%

Nine cities gained less than Seattle (or were falling) as of December: Tampa, Dallas, Portland, Washington DC, Charlotte, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, and New York. New York is still the only city still falling year-over-year.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through December.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the sixty-five months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 26.3%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of December: Still basically February 2005.

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 02.26.2013)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Dip to Close 2012 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up is a chart that goes back as far as NWMLS data is available:

Now a zoom-in of just the last couple years:

In theory it shouldn’t be possible for “delisted” to show up as a positive number in this chart as it has off and on over the last year or so. I assume that this is happening due to late-reported pending sales from agents and the unusual way the NWMLS records their statistics. Despite that confusion, this chart does a good job of showing just how tight the market has gotten in the last year. Very few homes are being delisted without selling.

In the 18 months following the July 2007 price peak in Seattle, an average of 1,608 homes were delisted each month. In the last 12 months that number has averaged just 21.

Finally, here’s a look at the monthly flow of new listings less pending sales:

The average value in the chart above from 2007 through 2009 was a net gain of 1,288 listings per month. In the last 12 months the average has been a net loss of 221 listings per month.

As far as supply and demand goes, it’s definitely not a great time to be a buyer right now.

The post Listings Keep Shrinking; Very Few Homes Delisted in 2012 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

After flattening out somewhat between November and December the sales distribution curve became much steeper in January as sales above $300,000 fell off dramatically. In December the mode (i.e. the bucket with the most sales) for non-distressed sales was at $350,000 to $400,000, but in January the mode fell all the way down to the $250,000 to $300,000 bucket.

Based on what I’ve been seeing in the market since the start of the year, I still expect the mode to shift toward the expensive ranges as we head into spring.

To generate the chart below, I took all the sales data for single-family homes sold in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties from the beginning of 2010 through the end of January. Since my data download puts late-reported sales into the month that the sale actually took place rather than in the month they were reported, there is a slight difference in the number of sales I’m counting vs. what the NWMLS reports each month.

By default the chart shows just King County sales in January. Use the controls below to scroll through different months, or to see what the mix looks like for Snohomish or Pierce County. I’ve also added color-coding and controls to separate out “non-distressed” sales from the sales of bank-owned homes and short sales.

As you explore the data for yourself I’d love to hear what stands out to you. Let me know in the comments!

The post Expensive Home Sales Dropped Off Dramatically in January appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

January 2013
King: 1,060 NTS, up 154% YOY
Snohomish: 566 NTS, up 141% YOY
Pierce: 723 NTS, up 156% YOY

All three counties still way above the level they were at a year ago, but month-over-month there wasn’t much movement.

Here’s your interactive Tableau dashboard updated with the latest foreclosure data:

The percentage of households in the chart above is determined using OFM population estimates and household sizes from the 2000 Census. King County came in at 1 NTS per 793 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 489 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 449 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate for January of one foreclosure for every 674 housing units was 7th highest among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using, and includes Notice of Default, Lis Pendens, Notice of Trustee Sale, and Real Estate Owned.

Hit the jump for a larger version of the chart that shows the percentage of households in each county receiving a foreclosure notice each month:

Note: The graphs above are derived from monthly Notice of Trustee Sale counts gathered at King, Snohomish, and Pierce County records. For a longer-term picture of King County foreclosures back to 1979, hit this chart and drag the date slider to its full range. For the full legal definition of what a Notice of Trustee Sale is and how it fits into the foreclosure process, check out RCW 61.24.040. The short version is that it is the notice sent to delinquent borrowers that their home will be repossessed in 90 days.

The post Foreclosures Start 2013 Elevated appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As of January, the non-distressed median price for King County single family home sales sits at $407,000, up 3.8% from a year earlier and virtually flat from December (down $1,000).

This is quite a contrast to the $30,000 drop in the raw median price, and demonstrates that the big drop in price was due almost entirely to the shift toward more distressed sales.

The bank-owned median sale price was at $199,900 in January, down just $100 from a year earlier. The short sale median price came in at $248,000 in January, up 5.5% from 2012.

The post Non-Distressed Median House Price Was Flat in January appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Although the number is much lower than it was a year ago, it did increase over three percentage points from December—the first significant gain over a year.

Short sales also increased somewhat, rising from 12.6% in December to 14.3% in January (up from 13.2% in January 2012).

On Friday we’ll take a look at how the median prices are moving for bank-owned homes, short sales, and non-distressed sales. Spoiler alert: they’re all basically flat.

The post Distressed Sales Finally Saw a Winter Spike in January appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

“I personally have never seen the ratio between active buyers and available inventory in Seattle’s close-in neighborhoods so out of balance,” remarked Mike Skahen, owner/designated broker at Lake & Co. Real Estate in Seattle. Skahen, a real estate professional since 1976, said multiple offers and bids well over the list price are common. “Even homes that were hard to sell for various reasons are being snapped up so those sellers were wise to list,” he added.

Lena Maul, a new member of the Northwest MLS board of directors, and the designated broker/owner at Windermere/North in Lynnwood, agreed now is a good time for sellers to list. “Sellers who are considering a spring or summer listing may want to consider listing now as demand is outweighing supply,” she noted, adding, “This has given well priced sellers the advantage with the benefit of quick sales and multiple offers.”
…
“Buyers should not forget the human element of appealing to a seller in this multiple offer market,” Maul emphasized, adding, “You just never know who is on the other side of a transaction and what might be important to them. In this case, selling their home to an owner occupant who appreciated special features of their home versus an investor sealed the deal, not cash.”

Ugh, gross. Personally, if I have to write a love note to the seller and grovel to get them to accept my offer, that’s a sign to me that I should either find another house or take a break from the market and try again next year.

All righty, on with our usual monthly stats.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

January 2013	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,975	+1.0%	-44.7%
Closed Sales	1,363	-21.7%	+24.5%
SAAS (?)	1.05	-15.1%	-14.8%
Pending Sales	2,109	+30.4%	+12.7%
Months of Supply	1.41	-22.5%	-50.9%
Median Price*	$350,000	-7.9%	+12.5%

Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003 format), but keep in mind the caution above.

This is the lowest months of supply has ever been as far back as my data goes (January 2000). Of course, the NWMLS changed the definition of “active listing” in July 2008, so months of supply before and after that point aren’t really directly comparable. Still though, 1.4 months of supply is insanely low by any measure.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Closed sales came in higher than any year since 2007.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

It is crazy how much lower inventory is to start off 2013 than it has been in any other year.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the “demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.

Same basic story we’ve seen since late 2011, with no sign of a change as of yet.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Big drop from a month ago, but still up over double digits. I expect this to continue to fall as we begin to compare year-over-year numbers with similar shares of bank-owned homes in the mix.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.

January 2013: $350,000
April 2005: $350,000

As of yet I haven’t seen any stories posted on the Times or P-I. I’ll update this post when they do.

Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.

[Update]
Seattle Times: King County home prices dip to March lows
Seattle P-I: Low home inventory driving up prices

The post NWMLS: Prices Dipped, Inventory Inched Up in January appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, here’s the summary snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Summary: Foreclosures are still up, sales dropped from December but are up from a year ago, and inventory appears to have inched up just slightly, which is a definite improvement over last year’s January performance. Hit the jump for the full suite of our usual monthly charts.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Salse in King County fell 34% from December to January, but much of that was just giving up the weird gains that showed up in last month’s preview.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish fell 15% month-over-month, to end up just about at the level they were in November.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

We’re still seeing big year-over-year spikes in both counties, although from December to January they were fairly flat, so the huge surge we saw near the end of last year may be abating.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee fell a bit from December, but were still up 40% from a year ago.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

Last year King County inventory fell 2.1% between December and January, a time which usually sees gains of 5 to 10 percent. This year we got a 1.7% increase, which isn’t anything to write home about, but is definitely better than a drop.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post January Stats Preview: Inventory Inching Up Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $257,962 (up 0.4%)
• Mid Tier: $257,962 – $412,123
• Hi Tier: > $412,123 (up 0.3%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through November 2012.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

All three tiers inched up in November, despite the typical seasonal trend that would see prices falling at that time of year. Between October and November, the low tier rose 0.4%, the middle tier was up 0.7%, and the high tier gained 0.5%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through November 2012.

Big gains for the low and middle tier, and a modest increase for the high tier. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of November – Low: +5.1%, Med: +9.4%, Hi: +7.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Current standing is 38.4% off peak for the low tier, 28.3% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.0% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.29.2013)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: All Three Tiers Defy Seasonality appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Up 0.5% October to November.
Up 7.4% YOY.
Down 25.9% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 1.2% from October to November and year-over-year prices were down 6.3%.

It is a bit surprising to see prices increase between October and November. The last time that happened was in 2005, right in the peak of the buying frenzy (but a couple of years before prices peaked).

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle moved toward the front of the pack for month-over-month changes in November.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In November, ten of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (the same number as October):

• Phoenix at +22.8%
• San Francisco at +12.7%
• Detroit at +11.9%
• Minneapolis at +11.1%
• Las Vegas at +10.0%
• Miami at +9.9%
• San Diego at +8.0%
• Denver at +7.8%
• Los Angeles at +7.7%
• Atlanta, GA at +7.6%

Nine cities gained less than Seattle (or were falling) as of November: Tampa, Portland, Dallas, Charlotte, Washington DC, Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, and New York. New York is now the only city still falling year-over-year.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through November.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the sixty-four months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 25.9%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of November: Still basically February 2005.

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 01.29.2013)

The post Case-Shiller: Seattle Home Prices Up Again in November appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, year-over-year job growth, broken down into a few relevant sectors:

Construction is posting gangbuster gains—up 11.5% year-over-year—as homebuilders attempt to capitalize on the inventory crunch. Finance / Real Estate is posting the smallest gains at just 0.8% year-over-year growth.

Here’s a look at the overall Seattle area unemployment rate compared to the national rate:

Unemployment fell again in Seattle and Washington State from November to December, as it more or less flat-lined nationally. As a result, Washington State’s unemployment rate fell below the national rate for the first time two years. The Seattle area is still outperforming Washington State and the nation as a whole, with December unemployment coming in at 7.8% for the US, 7.6% for Washington, and 6.5% for the Seattle area.

The post Seattle Area Keeps Adding Jobs, Washington Unemployment Falls Below National Rate appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

The sales distribution curve flattened out a bit between November and December, with low-priced homes inching up and many of the high-price buckets dropping a bit. In November the mode (i.e. the bucket with the most sales) for non-distressed sales was at $350,000 to $400,000, with 19 more sales in that range than any other. The non-distressed mode didn’t change in December, but the next two buckets down ($250,000 to $300,000 and $300,000 to $350,000) both came within 4 sales of the $350,000 to $400,000 range.

I expect we’ll see the curve sharpen back up and probably shift more toward the expensive ranges over the next few months.

To generate the chart below, I took all the sales data for single-family homes sold in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties from the beginning of 2010 through the end of December. Since my data download puts late-reported sales into the month that the sale actually took place rather than in the month they were reported, there is a slight difference in the number of sales I’m counting vs. what the NWMLS reports each month.

By default the chart shows just King County sales in December. Use the controls below to scroll through different months, or to see what the mix looks like for Snohomish or Pierce County. I’ve also added color-coding and controls to separate out “non-distressed” sales from the sales of bank-owned homes and short sales.

As you explore the data for yourself I’d love to hear what stands out to you. Let me know in the comments!

The post Cheap Home Sales Picked Up Some Steam in December appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As of December, the non-distressed median price for King County single family home sales sits at $409,475, up 6.5% from a year earlier.

An increase of 6.5% year-over-year is pretty strong, and makes me wonder whether December saw another shift of sales away from the cheaper parts of the county and toward the more expensive regions. We’ll take a look at that next week.

The bank-owned median sale price was at $208,000 in December, up 4.0% from a year earlier. The short sale median price came in at $250,000 in December, down 10.7% from 2012.

The post Non-Distressed Median Up 6.5% in December appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

December 2012
King: 1,031 NTS, up 198.8% YOY
Snohomish: 609 NTS, up 278.3% YOY
Pierce: 770 NTS, up 237.7% YOY

All three counties are still up quite a bit from a year ago since last year at this time foreclosures were falling each month, but this year they are rising.

Here’s your interactive Tableau dashboard updated with the latest foreclosure data:

The percentage of households in the chart above is determined using OFM population estimates and household sizes from the 2000 Census. King County came in at 1 NTS per 815 households, Snohomish County had 1 NTS per 454 households, and Pierce had 1 NTS for every 422 households (higher is better).

According to foreclosure tracking company RealtyTrac, Washington’s statewide foreclosure rate for December of one foreclosure for every 615 housing units was 8th highest among the 50 states and the District of Columbia. Note that RealtyTrac’s definition of “in foreclosure” is much broader than what we are using, and includes Notice of Default, Lis Pendens, Notice of Trustee Sale, and Real Estate Owned.

Hit the jump for a larger version of the chart that shows the percentage of households in each county receiving a foreclosure notice each month:

Note: The graphs above are derived from monthly Notice of Trustee Sale counts gathered at King, Snohomish, and Pierce County records. For a longer-term picture of King County foreclosures back to 1979, hit this chart and drag the date slider to its full range. For the full legal definition of what a Notice of Trustee Sale is and how it fits into the foreclosure process, check out RCW 61.24.040. The short version is that it is the notice sent to delinquent borrowers that their home will be repossessed in 90 days.

The post Foreclosures Spike Up to Close 2012 appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

I keep thinking this number will go up as more traditional sellers tend to back off during the holidays, but it basically hasn’t budged since August.

Short sales did inch up slightly, though not by all that much, rising from 11.4% in November to 12.7% in December (up from 11.2% in December 2011).

On Friday we’ll take a look at how the median prices are moving for bank-owned homes, short sales, and non-distressed sales.

The post Bank-Owned Sales Skip Usual Winter Boost appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

After the first two full weeks of the year, new listings of single family homes in King County are down 25% from last year. This follows a 14% drop last year and an 18% drop the year before that.

For buyers who were hoping that the new year would bring some relief from the problem of sparse selection, this is extremely unwelcome news.

I had hoped that last year’s strength would convince more of the homeowners with “pent-up supply” to list their homes this year, but so far that is definitely not the case.

The post New Listings Drop 25% From 2012′s Already-Depressed Level appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In this graph I flip the variables in the affordability index calculation around to other sides of the equation to calculate what price home the median household income could afford to buy at today’s mortgage rates if they put 20% down and spent 30% of their monthly income.

Median prices have been basically flat since our last update in August, but thanks to yet another dip in interest rates from 3.60% to 3.35%, the price of an “affordable” home in King County rose from $455,669 in August to $470,074 in December. We’re rapidly approaching the point where the “affordable” home price will be on par with what the median home price was at the peak. Ridiculous.

Here’s the alternate view on this data, where I flip the numbers around to calculate the household income required to make the median-priced home affordable at today’s mortgage rates, and compare that to actual median household incomes.

As of December, a household would need to earn $53,597 a year to be able to afford the median-priced $380,046 home in King County (down from $54,994 in August). Meanwhile, the actual median household income is around $66,000.

If interest rates were at levels at 6% (comparable to where they were pre-bust), the necessary income to buy a median-priced home would be $72,914, and the “affordable” home price would be $345,539—$35k below the current median.

The post Low Rates Keep the “Affordable” Home Price Inflated appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As a reminder, the affordability index is based on three factors: median single-family home price as reported by the NWMLS, 30-year monthly mortgage rates as reported by the Federal Reserve, and estimated median household income as reported by the Washington State Office of Financial Management.

The historic standard for affordable housing is that monthly costs do not exceed 30% of one’s income. Therefore, the formula for the affordability index is as follows:

For a more detailed examination of what the affordability index is and what it isn’t, I invite you to read this 2009 post.

So how does affordability look as of December? Thanks to still-crazy-low interest rates, pretty good:

I’ve marked where affordability would be if interest rates were at a more sane level of 6%. The picture is decidedly less appealing in that scenario, but still not dire.

Here’s a look at the index for Snohomish County and Pierce County since 2000:

Now if only there were actually homes available to buy.

The post Near-Record Affordability Still Driven by Low Rates appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Brokers expect the housing market rebound to continue, while cautioning sellers to refrain from becoming too greedy and expressing hope for “controlled natural growth” to sustain the recovery. They also believe distressed properties, rising rents and re-engaged investors will have an impact on activity for the foreseeable future.

“Buyers are taking note of sellers who overprice their homes,” reported Northwest MLS director Darin Stenvers. “These buyers are not wasting their time looking at that section of the market for fear of losing a “turnkey ready” home that they can buy and close on,” added Stenvers, the office managing broker at John L. Scott, Inc. in Bellingham.

You may recall that nearly a third of sellers will overprice on purpose.

All righty, on with our usual monthly stats.

Here’s your King County SFH summary, with the arrows to show whether the year-over-year direction of each indicator is favorable or unfavorable news for buyers and sellers (green = favorable, red = unfavorable):

December 2012	Number	MOM	YOY	Buyers	Sellers
Active Listings	2,945	-20.8%	-46.4%
Closed Sales	1,741	-4.8%	+18.8%
SAAS (?)	1.24	+19.9%	-23.0%
Pending Sales	1,617	-21.2%	+1.6%
Months of Supply	1.82	+0.5%	-47.2%
Median Price*	$380,046	-1.3%	+18.8%

Feel free to download the updated Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet (Excel 2003 format), but keep in mind the caution above.

A few stats of note: before November of last year, King County single-family inventory had never (since my data starts in 2000) dropped below 4,000, let alone below 3,000. Inventory is insanely anemic. Also of interest, pending sales dropped to their lowest year-over-year increase since the post-tax-credit sales hangover.

Here’s your closed sales yearly comparison chart:

Pretty typical for this time of year.

Here’s the graph of inventory with each year overlaid on the same chart.

Another record low for inventory, dropping below 4,000 single-family homes for the first time on record.

Here’s the supply/demand YOY graph. In place of the now-unreliable measure of pending sales, the “demand” in this chart is represented by closed sales, which have had a consistent definition throughout the decade.

Well, we definitely ended the year on a low note for buyers.

Here’s the median home price YOY change graph:

Down just a bit from last month, but we’re still comparing to a time a year ago when bank-owned sales were through the roof. I expect this to drop dramatically over the next few months.

And lastly, here is the chart comparing King County SFH prices each month for every year back to 1994.

December 2012: $380,046
September 2005: $381,250

Here are the headlines from the Times and P-I:
Seattle Times: Local inventory of homes for sale hits another record low
Seattle P-I: December saw slowing home sales, rising prices

Check back tomorrow for the full reporting roundup.

The post NWMLS: 2012 Ends on a Sour Note for Buyers appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, here’s the summary snapshot of all the data as far back as my historical information goes, with the latest, high, and low values highlighted for each series:

Summary: Foreclosures shot up, sales actually increased (quite odd for this time of year), and inventory hit another new low point. Hit the jump for the full suite of our usual monthly charts.

Next, let’s look at total home sales as measured by the number of “Warranty Deeds” filed with King County:

Salse in King County rose 15% from November to December, opposite of what we would expect for this time of year.

Here’s a look at Snohomish County Deeds, but keep in mind that Snohomish County files Warranty Deeds (regular sales) and Trustee Deeds (bank foreclosure repossessions) together under the category of “Deeds (except QCDS),” so this chart is not as good a measure of plain vanilla sales as the Warranty Deed only data we have in King County.

Deeds in Snohomish also increased 15% month-over-month.

Next, here’s Notices of Trustee Sale, which are an indication of the number of homes currently in the foreclosure process:

Relatively large month to month increases in both counties. Also odd for this time of year. Perhaps there is some sort of regulatory change that takes effect in January that might cause banks to push through foreclosures before the end of the year. It might have even been something to do with the “fiscal cliff” nonsense.

Here’s another measure of foreclosures for King County, looking at Trustee Deeds, which is the type of document filed with the county when the bank actually repossesses a house through the trustee auction process. Note that there are other ways for the bank to repossess a house that result in different documents being filed, such as when a borrower “turns in the keys” and files a “Deed in Lieu of Foreclosure.”

Trustee deeds shot way up, blowing away the previous high point of 2012.

Lastly, here’s an update of the inventory charts, updated with the inventory data from the NWMLS.

As we have been predicting, inventory keeps hitting new lows. Hopefully we’ll see an increase this month.

Stay tuned later this month a for more detailed look at each of these metrics as the “official” data is released from various sources.

The post December Stats Preview: Foreclosure Surge Edition appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $256,900 (down 0.4%)
• Mid Tier: $256,900 – $410,901
• Hi Tier: > $410,901 (down 0.5%)

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through October 2012.

Here’s a zoom-in, showing just the last year:

The high tier and low tier both fell a bit, but the middle tier actually rose again in this month’s data. Between September and October, the low tier fell 0.5%, the middle tier was up 0.3%, and the high tier lost 0.1%.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through October 2012.

All three tiers keep improving their year-over-year gains. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of October – Low: +2.1%, Med: +6.8%, Hi: +6.1%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Current standing is 38.7% off peak for the low tier, 28.7% off peak for the middle tier, and 22.4% off peak for the high tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.26.2012)

The post Case-Shiller Tiers: High & Low Tier Begin Seasonal Decline appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Down 0.2% September to October.
Up 5.7% YOY.
Down 26.3% from the July 2007 peak

Last year prices fell 1.0% from September to October and year-over-year prices were down 6.2%.

Nothing surprising here. Prices tend to fall a bit as the year winds to a close, but this year’s drop is quite a bit smaller than what we saw last year.

Here’s an interactive graph of the year-over-year change for all twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities, courtesy of Tableau Software (check and un-check the boxes on the right):

Seattle stayed in the middle of the pack for month-over-month changes in October.

Hit the jump for the rest of our monthly Case-Shiller charts, including the interactive chart of raw index data for all 20 cities.

In October, ten of the twenty Case-Shiller-tracked cities gained more year-over-year than Seattle (three more than September):

• Phoenix at +21.7%
• Detroit at +10.0%
• Minneapolis at +9.2%
• San Francisco at +8.9%
• Miami at +8.5%
• Las Vegas at +8.4%
• Denver at +6.9%
• Los Angeles at +6.2%
• San Diego at +6.0%
• Tampa, FL at +5.9%

Nine cities gained less than Seattle (or were falling) as of October: Portland, Atlanta, Dallas, Washington DC, Charlotte, Cleveland, Boston, New York, and Chicago. New York and Chicago are the only two cities still falling year-over-year.

Here’s the interactive chart of the raw HPI for all twenty cities through October.

Here’s an update to the peak-decline graph, inspired by a graph created by reader CrystalBall. This chart takes the twelve cities whose peak index was greater than 175, and tracks how far they have fallen so far from their peak. The horizontal axis shows the total number of months since each individual city peaked.

In the sixty-three months since the price peak in Seattle prices have declined 26.3%.

Lastly, let’s see just how far back Seattle’s home prices have “rewound.” As of October: Still basically February 2005.

Check back tomorrow for a post on the Case-Shiller data for Seattle’s price tiers.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 12.26.2012)

The post Case-Shiller: Yearly Price Gain Increased Again in October appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In exploring this data, the biggest thing that jumps out to me is how much non-distressed homes above the median price have surged in the last year. Last November there were 407 non-distressed single-family homes sales in King County under $350,000 and 621 for $350,000 and up. This November there were 547 sales below $350,000 (a 34% gain) and 1,064 at or above $350,000—a 95% gain! It definitely seems like the high-end buyers and sellers are getting back into the market.

To generate the chart below, I took all the sales data for single-family homes sold in King, Snohomish, and Pierce Counties from the beginning of 2010 through the end of November. Since my data download puts late-reported sales into the month that the sale actually took place rather than in the month they were reported, there is a slight difference in the number of sales I’m counting vs. what the NWMLS reports each month.

By default the chart shows just King County sales in November. Use the controls below to scroll through different months, or to see what the mix looks like for Snohomish or Pierce County. I’ve also added color-coding and controls to separate out “non-distressed” sales from the sales of bank-owned homes and short sales.

As you explore the data for yourself I’d love to hear what stands out to you. Let me know in the comments!

The post Sales of Expensive Non-Distressed Homes Surging appeared first on Seattle Bubble.