In this chart I’ve grouped zip codes into their approximate NWMLS regions, which break South County into SE King and SW King and display Seattle and N King separately.

Southwest King County is still much more distressed than the other regions, but steep declines in the last two months have dropped its share of bank-owned sales from 28% in February to just 19% in April. Seattle and the Eastside have decreased as well, and now sit at just 2.4% and 3.3% respectively.

After shooting up from 1.4% in December to 11.9% in March, bank-owned sales fell to 9.0% of the total in North King County in April.

Overall, the effects of distressed inventory and sales are mostly behind us in the Seattle area, save for Southwest King County, which still seems to have a bit to work through this year.

The post Bank-Owned Sales Drop Below 20% in SW King County appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of March data:

• low end: $197,995—$407,000
• mid range: $250,000—$650,000
• high end: $425,000—$1,262,500

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The median price in the low end regions was basically flat, while median in the high and mid-tier regions both saw a bump in March.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Month over month the low end regions accounted for basically the same share of sales. The high end lost a little share and the mid-tier gained. As of March 2013, 34.3% of sales were in the low end regions, 31.8% in the mid range, and 33.9% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had a bit more of the share and the high end less: In March 2012 the low end made up 35.8% of the sales, the mid range was 32.1%, and the high end was 32.1%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

We’re still in odd, uncharted territory, with the low and high ends both taking up about the same share of sales and the middle tier coming in last. We haven’t seen a market with this kind of mix at all, as far back as this data goes.

The post South King and Eastside Sales Neck and Neck appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In this chart I’ve grouped zip codes into their approximate NWMLS regions, which break South County into SE King and SW King and display Seattle and N King separately.

Southwest King County is still the leader, where nearly a quarter (22.5%) of sales are still bank-owned homes. Unsurprisingly, Seattle and the Eastside are still the lowest, where bank-owned homes made up just 4.3% and 4.4% of sales in March.

Interestingly, sales of bank-owned homes in North King County (Shoreline, Lake Forest Park, Kenmore) have shot up from just 1.4% in December (lower than Seattle and the Eastside) to 12.7% in March. From what I have seen of the inventory situation in those areas, this is probably just because very few non-distressed listings have been hitting the market in the last few months.

The post Southwest King County Still Most-Distressed appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of February data:

• low end: $177,000—$307,475
• mid range: $265,000—$674,225
• high end: $418,961—$1,099,950

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The low and high regions both had their median bump up a bit, while median in the mid-tier regions fell slightly.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The high tier fell while the low tier surged in January, which fits nicely with the big drop in the overall median price. As of February 2013, 34.5% of sales were in the low end regions, 30.9% in the mid range, and 34.6% in the high end. A year ago the low end regions had a fair bit more sales and the high end less: the low end made up 39.7% of the sales, the mid range was 29.8%, and the high end was 30.6%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

The big shift away from the low end regions and toward the high end regions explains a good amount of the 18.5% increase in the county-wide median price. No big surprise that the median would go way up when sales in cheap parts of the county fall off and sales in expensive regions shoot up.

The post Expensive Eastside Home Sales Spiked in February appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of December data:

• low end: $194,950—$335,500
• mid range: $272,000—$656,500
• high end: $384,498—$1,095,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

In a flip from December, the middle tier regions inched up slightly in January, while the low and high regions both fell.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

The high tier fell while the low tier surged in January, which fits nicely with the big drop in the overall median price. As of January 2013, 36.0% of sales were in the low end regions, 31.3% in the mid range, and 32.6% in the high end. A year ago the numbers were almost identical: the low end made up 36.4% of the sales, the mid range was 31.1%, and the high end was 32.5%.

Here’s that information in a visual format:

Finally, here’s an updated look at the percentage of sales data all the way back through 2000:

Last month’s shift put us back to a more normal market where the low end regions make up more of the sales. It will be interesting to see if this persists as we get further into the year.

The post Low End Sales Spike, High End Slips appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In order to explore this concept, we break King County down into three regions, based on the NWMLS-defined “areas”:

• low end: South County (areas 100-130 & 300-360)
• mid range: Seattle / North County (areas 140, 380-390, & 700-800)
• high end: Eastside (areas 500-600)

Here’s where each region’s median prices came in as of December data:

• low end: $193,000—$303,475
• mid range: $271,500—$729,000
• high end: $424,953—$1,035,000

First up, let’s have a look at each region’s (approximate) median price (actually the median of the medians for each area within the region).

The mid range dipped a bit in December, but the low and high regions both ticked up again.

Next up, the percentage of each month’s closed sales that took place in each of the three regions. The dotted line is a four-month rolling average.

Big shift this month as the spendy Eastside spikes up, stealing share from mid-range Seattle. As of December 2012, 33.7% of sales were in the low end regions, 30.6% in the mid range, and 35.7% in the high end. A year ago the low end made up 35.4% of the sales, the mid range was 32.7%, and the high end was 31.9%.

Finally, here’s an updated look at this same set of data all the way back through 2000:

There haven’t been many times when the expensive Eastside regions have had the largest share of sales. We’re certainly in the midst of a weird market.

As a bonus, here’s a chart of the share of sales in each NWMLS region that were bank-owned. I created this one for Eric Pryne over at the Seattle Times a few months ago, and have updated it with December data. In this chart I’ve grouped zip codes into their approximate NWMLS regions, which break South County into SE King and SW King and display Seattle an N King separately.

At its peak in January of 2012, nearly half of the sales in SW King County were bank-owned homes, but as of December that number had fallen to just 14%. With the dramatic, across-the-board drop in bank-owned sales combined with the strengthening of sales in the expensive Eastside regions, it’s no wonder the county-wide median price has gone up so much over the past year.

The post Eastside Sales Surge, Seattle Sales Slip appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In a big surprise to nobody, the most expensive zip code in the area is downtown Seattle’s 98101, with a whopping $482 median price per square foot. Of course, that actually looks cheap compared to the pricing on new construction condos downtown, but I digress.

Here are the top ten most-expensive zip codes in King / Snohomish / Pierce, by median price of home sales over the last three months:

And here are the top ten least-expensive zip codes in King / Snohomish / Pierce, by median price of home sales over the last three months:

Okay that was almost all Tacoma. How about the ten least-expensive zip codes in King County:

South King County with the sweep.

The post The Seattle-Area’s Most Expensive Zip Code Is… appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Week Redfin released their September market data. As is my tradition, I will be re-posting the heat map here.

Here’s this month’s sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed September numbers for that region.

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code. For the full details on how the heat map is created, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

Also included in the Redfin post is the “top 5 hottest neighborhoods.” Ravenna snags September’s top spot, with a heat index of 90.4, as Lake City takes #2 with 83.8. Rainier Valley was once again the coldest neighborhood, with a Heat Index of just 32.2.

The post Redfin: Slow Sales, Little Heat in Seattle’s Housing Market appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

On Monday Redfin released their August market data. The narrative is light this month, as we’re working on a new format, but I still wanted to post the heat map here, since I love heat maps.

Here’s this month’s sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed August numbers for that region.

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code. For the full details on how the heat map is created, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

Also included in the Redfin post is the “top 5 hottest neighborhoods.” Capitol Hill snags August’s top spot, with a heat index of 120.7, barely beating out Wallingford, where the index was 120.5.

South Seattle was the coldest last month, with Rainier Valley and Beacon Hill topping the coldest neighborhoods table at Heat Indices of 42.9 and 47.8, respectively.

The post Redfin: Capitol Hill & Wallingford Seattle’s Hottest Neighborhoods in August appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Friday Redfin released their July market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I did not write this month):

Redfin Capitol Hill Team Lead agent Allie Howard says: “I give the summer of 2011 an “F” for frustration! Sellers are frustrated as prices of comparable homes remain low and many cannot afford to sell at current price levels. Those sellers who must move on are opting to rent their homes until the market recovers. Buyers are frustrated as well due to the lack of available inventory. When something desirable appears on market, they find themselves competing against other buyers for the better homes. It may still be a ‘buyer’s market,’ but you have to be fast to reel in the winners.”

Here’s this month’s sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed July numbers for that region.

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code.

In order to roll sales, inventory, and prices all into a single “heat” number, I created a new “heat index” for Redfin, where a market with 6.0 months of supply (end of month inventory / one-month closed sales) and +5.0% year-over-year appreciation in the median price per square foot translates to an index value of 75. For the full details, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

Also included in the Redfin post is the “top 5 hottest neighborhoods.” The list will probably look familiar: Magnolia, Ballard, Northwest Seattle, Queen Anne, and Northeast Seattle.

Again, I’ll probably postthe usual Tableau map later this week. For now though, enjoy the Google map.

The post Redfin: Summer Not so Hot for Local Real Estate appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As promised on Monday, I’d like to post the usual Tableau map of Redfin’s monthly Seattle-area market stats.

Don’t forget that you can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here. Going forward I’ll probably just include both of these maps in the same post.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in May is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

This month’s biggest sales winner in King County was way out in Snoqualmie (98065) (last month’s biggest loser), where sales bumped up from 7 in May to 18 in June. King County’s biggest decline was in NW Seattle / W Shoreline (98177), where sales fell 42% from 24 in May to 14 in June.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in May in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98115 — 55 sales.
• Snohomish: 98208 — 64 sales.
• Pierce: 98391 — 77 sales.
• Thurston: 98501 — 51 sales.
• Kitsap: 98367 — 34 sales.

Inventory almost turned positive in June, declining month-to-month in 35 King County neighborhoods, flat in 4, and rising in 34. Year-to-year continues to come in worse: Just 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 3 were flat, and the remaining 58 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 59 King County zip codes, and rose in just 12. The median price per square foot was down in 54 zip codes, flat in 1, and up in 17.

Anything stand out to you about the detailed stats this month?

The post Your Regularly Scheduled Redfin/Tableau Mashup appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Thursday Redfin released their June market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

So far this summer the real estate market in Seattle is about as exciting as a Matlock Marathon at the High School Prom.

Very few quality, well-priced new listings are coming on the market, and when one finally does, it’s the same story every time as the few buyers that are out there all descend at once and end up bidding against each other.
…
“New listings are slow to hit the market, and buyers are getting frustrated with the inventory,” said Redfin Redmond/Bothell Agent Kurt Pepin. “Buyers are anxious to buy, but are also being very smart about their purchases. The pure emotional buy is gone, while crunching every number possible has become the new norm.”

New in this month’s report is the sweet Google Fusion Tables zip code heat map below. You can zoom in/out, and click on a zip code to get the detailed June numbers for that region.

Note that the color being displayed on each zip code is based on whichever type of home (SFH, condo, townhouse) sold the most in that zip code.

In order to roll sales, inventory, and prices all into a single “heat” number, I created a new “heat index” for Redfin, where a market with 6.0 months of supply (end of month inventory / one-month closed sales) and +5.0% year-over-year appreciation in the median price per square foot translates to an index value of 75. For the full details, see the “Methodology” footnote on the Redfin post.

I plan to post the usual Tableau map later this week, but I’d love to get your feedback on this map and the new heat index. Thanks!

The post Redfin: June’s Warmest Puget Sound Region: NE Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Wednesday Redfin released their May market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

For the most part selection around Seattle continued the unseasonal shrinkage we’ve been pointing out all year. However, there may yet be some hope on the horizon as we move into the summer. Redfin Maple Valley Agent Lori Bakken is seeing a shift in the attitudes of potential sellers as they put aside their expectations of a quick price recovery. “Sellers are ready to be realistic, they’re accepting the loss,” said Lori.
…
Sales are picking up just as they do every year as we head into the summer, but they’re still quite a bit below where they were last year (as the tax credit was ramping down). Redfin Eastside coordinator Christine Golborne attributes the continued slump in sales to an ongoing sense of unease among potential buyers. “I think there’s a lot of distrust in the marketplace,” explained Christine. “People think that pricing is still going to go lower.”

It’s basically the same story we’ve been repeating all year so far: Slumping sales and sagging inventory. I suspect the market may linger through this kind of malaise for quite some time to come…

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in May is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was Des Moines (98198), where sales shot up from 15 in April to 27 in May. King County’s biggest decline was in Snoqualmie (98065), where sales fell 59% from 17 in April to 7 in May.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in May in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98042 — 54 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 62 sales.
• Pierce: 98391 — 77 sales.
• Thurston: 98503 — 43 sales.
• Kitsap: 98366 — 30 sales.

Inventory continued falling in most places in April, declining month-to-month in 41 King County neighborhoods, flat in 3, and rising in 28. Year-to-year continues to come in worse: 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 2 were flat, and the remaining 59 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 51 King County zip codes, and rose in just 14. The median price per square foot was down in 56 zip codes and up in just 9.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Real Estate Limbo Drags On… appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Wednesday Redfin released their April market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

“Buyers are excited to start looking for homes,” says Corey St John, a Redfin Capitol Hill Agent, “…until they see what’s available.” By this time of year, the selection of homes is usually in full bloom, but this year buyers have been faced with a lot of stale inventory. “Buyers are getting frustrated. They were thinking that by now there would be a lot of new homes coming on the market, but there just aren’t.”

That frustration appears to be simply turning many would-be buyers off completely, as sales continue to mark double-digit declines across most of the Seattle area.

With sales dropping off — not only from last year’s tax-credit-juiced levels, but even just since March in many cities — one would expect the few buyers that are out there shopping to have it pretty easy. Unfortunately, that’s not what our agents are seeing in the field.

“Most of the buyers we’re working with today either have been recently or are right now in a multiple offer situation,” says Corey St John. Cheryl McLaine, Team Lead for the Bothell/Redmond team, is seeing the same thing. “Well over half of our recent deals have been multi-offer,” she explains.

What explains this seeming contradiction? How do we have slow sales and lots of multiple-offer situations? It seems that the few buyers who are out there today are all interested in the same small selection of homes.

“Today’s buyers are detached,” says Cheryl. “They definitely feel that they can be picky.” So the majority of homes for sale today — which are either overpriced or need work — end up sitting on the market for months. Meanwhile, the few nice, well-priced homes that come up tend to go fast.

That would seem to explain Redfin’s claims of the market suddenly heating up. It’s not that there are a ton more buyers out there, it’s just that the few buyers that are making offers all seem want the same homes, because most of what’s on the market is junk, overpriced, or both.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in April is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was the U. District (98105), where sales shot up from 14 in March to 24 in April. King County’s biggest decline was in Renton (98057), where sales fell 58% from 12 in March to 5 in April.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in April in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98115 — 61 sales.
• Snohomish: 98258 — 55 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 67 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 38 sales.
• Kitsap: 98366 — 31 sales.

Inventory continued falling in most places in April, declining month-to-month in 41 King County neighborhoods, flat in 2, and rising in 29. Year-to-year continues to come in worse: 10 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, and the remaining 62 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 51 King County zip codes, and rose in just 12. The median price per square foot was down in 54 zip codes and up in just 6.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Sales, Inventory, and Prices All Still Falling appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Friday Redfin released their March market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

Spring has officially sprung. Spring–when flowers bloom, birds chirp, the sun makes an occasional appearance through brief windows in Seattle’s perpetually grey winter sky, and the real estate market begins to pick up steam.

Let’s see how spring 2011 is shaping up:

• Flowers: check
• Birds: check
• Sunbreaks: check
• Real Estate: um…

As it turns out, the usual spring uptick in new listings and sales still isn’t materializing so far in 2011. What’s the deal? Where are the sellers? Where are the buyers?
…
Our customers are feeling the pain of languishing inventory. “Inventory is a little bit stale,” laments West Seattle Redfin Agent Klaus Gosma. “People are definitely thirsty for some ‘new blood.’”

Redfin Ballard Agent Bryan Haynes agrees. “In Ballard we’re seeing two kinds of listings—stale, overpriced homes that end up sitting on the market and well-kept, well-priced homes that quickly attract buyers’ attention.” Sadly, there just aren’t as many of the second kind as buyers would like.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in March is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was N. Beacon Hill / Mt. Baker (98144), where sales shot up from just 9 in February to 28 in March. King County’s biggest decline was in Central East Bellevue (98007), where sales fell 20% from 10 in February to 8 in March.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98042 — 56 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 74 sales.
• Pierce: 98391 — 71 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 35 sales.
• Kitsap: 98366 — 34 sales.

Inventory began to show a little life in March, declining month-to-month in 41 King County neighborhoods, flat in 4, and rising in 27. Year-to-year, the picture was less rosy: 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 1 was flat, and the remaining 59 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 46 King County zip codes, and rose in 19. The median price per square foot was down in 55 zip codes and up in just 9.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Sales, Prices, & Inventory All Slipping into Spring appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last Thursday Redfin released their February market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which I also wrote):

Welcome to Real Estate Bizarro World, where falling supply means falling prices and scarce demand still leads to multiple offer situations. 2011 continues to shape up as an unusual year for the Seattle-area real estate market, with the number of homes for sale in February falling when it should be rising, the number of buyers still near all-time lows, and prices showing persistent signs of weakness.
…
With prices still dropping, buyers are exercising their muscle. “Buyers have a price in their head of what they’re willing to pay for a house, and they’re not willing to budge,” said Michelle. “They want to battle. They go into it looking for a deal and ready to beat people up.”

“Buyers are not acquiescing to sellers,” agreed Kevin. “It may be a seller’s market by the numbers, but you need to be careful because buyers are very cautious and risk-averse.”

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in February is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales volume is still slipping in most places, but continues to rise in a few. The biggest winner in King County was Mercer Island (98040), where sales shot up from just 8 in January to 22 in February. King County’s biggest decline was in Delridge (98126), where sales fell 36% from 11 in January to just 7 in February.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98052 — 27 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 39 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 32 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 29 sales.
• Kitsap: 98312 — 22 sales.

Continuing the odd trend we’ve seen so far in 2011, inventory declined month-to-month in 52 King County neighborhoods, was flat in 3, and rose in 13. Year-to-year, the story was similar: 12 neighborhoods saw inventory increase, 3 were flat, and the remaining 53 are all lower than a year ago.

The median price fell from a year ago in 42 King County zip codes, and rose in 15. The median price per square foot was down in 50 zip codes and up in just 8.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Real Estate Bizarro World in Seattle in February appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

This time I’ve taken all the active listings as of February 17th and all the closed sales between January 1st 2010 and February 17th 2011, and slapped them all onto the same map. Crazy!

Click any zip code’s circle to update all the pies and bars below the map to show you the specific stats breakdown for that zip code. I’ve broken down the ratios of bank-owned, short sale, and non-distressed listings and sales as well as the median price and days on market for each bucket as well.

The circles are color-coded based on how “distressed” the listings and sales in the given zip code are. Zip codes that are less than 10% distressed are shades of blue, while over 10% is darker and darker red. Not a lot of blue out there.

Interestingly, the zip codes with the most activity also seem to be the ones where the largest percentages of homes being sold are bank owned. The basic story seems to be that it’s hard to move the non-distressed inventory.

Please be patient. This viz is pretty big, so it may take a few seconds to load and to react to your click when you select a zip code.

The post Mid-February Market Snapshot Map appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Happy Friday everybody. Let’s celebrate the upcoming weekend with a sweet interactive map. That’s right, it’s time again already to check out Redfin’s January market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative (which, as it turns out, I wrote):

“It was the best of times, it was the worst of times… it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us.”

The opening line of Charles Dickens’ famous novel is a fitting description of the Seattle-area real estate market in January. Low prices are a buyer’s dream, but a seller’s nightmare. Inventory is still near record highs, but according to buyers, “there’s nothing out there.”
…
“The number one complaint I hear from my buyers today is ‘there’s nothing out there,’” said Loren Ellingson, a Redfin agent in Bellevue. “We’re all holding out, waiting and praying for more inventory in March.”

Kirkland Redfin agent Kathryn Rion agreed. “I have a lot of buyers who are really ready to go, but most of what’s out there is either overpriced or really yucky,” explained Kathryn.

Redfin’s data and our agents’ experience in the field confirms what I pointed out a month ago: inventory is unusually scarse across most of the Seattle area. One thing that I found particularly interesting when I was talking with our agents to collect their thoughts for this report was the interesting strategy that the banks seem to be employing on the Eastside with their REO inventory.

Despite the low overall sales volume on the Eastside, buyers there are encountering some frustrating situations. Loren and Kathryn are both beginning to see banks get a lot more aggressive with their listings, putting well-kept REO homes on the market at far below market value, often generating over a dozen offers (no joke!).

“When a nice bank-owned home hits the market in Bellevue, it inevitably gets a lot of offers,” said Loren. “Many of these listings are generating so much interest that the banks cut things off after receiving ten offers.”

These homes inevitably sell for a good amount over their list price, but in the end they are usually still cheaper than comparable “non-distressed” inventory, so you end up with a paradoxical situation where buyers are encountering multiple offers, but prices are still falling. Crazy.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in January is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot for single-family homes, condos, or townhouses. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the geographic view to your liking.

If you flip the measure and range to inventory month-over-month, you can see the odd “two cities” dynamics. Inventory actually dropped from December to January (very unusual) across pretty much the entire Eastside, while rising (the normal seasonal pattern) in parts of central Seattle and north Seattle.

Year-over-year, the biggest winner for sales in King County this month was a tie between east of Lake Sammammish (98075) and Kennydale, where sales doubled from January 2010 to January 2011. King County’s biggest decline was in my home town of Kenmore (98028), where sales fell 77% from 39 a year ago to just 9 this year. 35 zip codes had decreasing sales volumes YOY, 3 were flat, and 15 saw an increase. Month-to-month, 53 zip codes fell, 2 were flat, and 1 increased (98007 – East Bellevue).

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in January in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98059 — 31 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 33 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 28 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 14 sales.
• Kitsap: 98367 — 20 sales.

Year-to-year, 33 zip codes in King County gained inventory, 2 were flat, and 34 lost inventory. Almost a dead even split.

The median price fell from a year ago in 37 King County zip codes, and rose in 16. The median price per square foot was also down in 37 zip codes and up in 16.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data? Do your observations match up with the stark contrast Redfin’s agents are seeing between the Eastside and Seattle?

The post Redfin: Buyer’s Market No Breeze for Buyers appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In the map below I have taken all the currently active listings on the market in King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties, and separated them into three buckets: bank owned, short sale, and non-distressed. Each zip code has a pie chart that shows the breakdown for that zip code. Pies are sized according to the total number of listings in the zip code. Float the mouse over a slice of pie to see the number of listings it represents, as well as the median list price and median days on market for those listings.

King County’s most distressed zip code is 98168, right between Boeing Field and Sea-Tac Airport. Of the 56 homes on the market there, 58% are bank owned or short sales. West Federal Way comes in a close second with 57% of the 228 homes on the market being either bank owned or short sale.

In Snohomish County, Marysville’s 98270 is by far the most distressed, with bank owned and short sale homes making up a whopping 61% of the listings. Pierce County’s leader is Orting’s 98360, with 56% of its listings distressed. South Puyallup’s 98375 is also up there at 54% distressed.

Central King County (basically Seattle and Bellevue) have relatively few distressed listings, but once you venture very far outside that narrow band to the north or the south, the picture changes fairly dramatically.

Here’s the total distressed listings breakdown for each county:

• King: 12% bank owned, 22% short sale, 66% non-distressed.
• Snohomish: 16% bank owned, 27% short sale, 57% non-distressed.
• Pierce: 14% bank owned, 23% short sale, 63% non-distressed.

Overall, 37% of the listings in King, Pierce, and Snohomish are either bank owned or a short sale.

It’s also interesting to see the difference between the prices of the distressed inventory vs. the non-distressed inventory. Take single-family homes in Deldrige (98106) for example. Here’s the number of homes, median price, and median days on market for the three buckets:

• non-distressed: 45 homes, $275,000, 88 DOM
• short sale: 21 homes, $259,990, 105 DOM
• bank owned: 22 homes, $147,000, 47 DOM

Short sales are a little cheaper than non-distressed, but are taking a lot longer to sell. Bank owned homes are a lot cheaper than non-distressed homes, and are selling a lot faster.

If you want to know what’s continuing to drive prices down in this long, slow grind, there’s your answer. Bank owned homes are driving down prices hard, and will likely continue to do so until the foreclosure surge dies down.

If you’re a potential seller in one of these areas with a lot of distressed listings, you’re going to have to work pretty hard to overcome the huge price advantage of the bank owned homes on the market. If your home is not priced right and doesn’t sparkle right out of the gate, you’re going to get left in the dust. Fair warning.

The post One in Three Seattle Area Home Listings are Distressed appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Now that it’s almost February, we should probably make some time to check out Redfin’s December market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

With buyers hitting the streets, and inventory scarce it stands to reason that sellers who list their homes for sale now, instead of waiting until spring, have the advantage of less competition. “I have quite a few buyers just waiting for an increase in inventory, which seems stale at the moment,” said Robin McCue, a Seattle Redfin agent, “Sellers should consider listing earlier than later in the season, as there are a lot of buyers just waiting for good homes.”

I guess it depends on what your definition of “a lot of buyers” is. There are definitely buyers waiting for good inventory (which has been quite stale lately), but I don’t know that I’d say there are a lot of buyers just yet.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here. New in this month’s spreadsheet: Pending sales and 13-month trend tables! Check it out, we’re pretty proud of these sweet new features.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in December is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot for single-family homes, condos, or townhouses. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the geographic view to your liking.

Redfin’s data shows a bump in sales month-to-month, but not as big as what the NWMLS claimed. Year-over-year, the biggest winner in King County this month was E. Auburn (98002), which saw sales shoot up 133% from 6 in December 2009 to 14 in December 2010. King County’s biggest decline was in Lake City / Northgate (98125), where sales fell 42% from 26 a year ago to 15 this year. 39 zip codes had decreasing sales volumes YOY, 3 were flat, and 24 saw an increase. Month-to-month, 14 zip codes fell, 2 were flat, and 46 increased.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in December in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98033 — 42 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 47 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 55 sales.
• Thurston: 98513 — 38 sales.
• Kitsap: 98366 — 34 sales.

Inventory declined month-to-month in most neighborhoods. Year-to-year, about a third of neighborhoods gained inventory, while two thirds were down from 2009.

The median price fell from a year ago in 41 King County zip codes, and rose in 25. The median price per square foot was down in 45 zip codes, flat in one, and up in 20.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Home Sales Thaw a Bit, Prices Still Mostly Falling appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up, let’s have a look at a map of the “staleness” of listings. The map below has a circle for every zip code with at least five listings. The circles are sized according to the number of listings, and color-coded based on the “staleness” of the listings. This is based on the original listing date, not the latest time the agent pulled and re-posted the same house.

Zip codes near the market-wide median of 92 days on the market are grey, above the median is blue, and below the median is red.

Here in King County, Medina (98039) has the most stale listings, with the median days on market coming in at 149. Of the zip codes with over 100 listings, West Seattle (98116) takes the cake with 129 median days on market for its 181 listings.

The freshest listings in King County are in downtown Seattle (98101), at just 54 median days on market. The north Seattle neighborhoods of Ballard (98107), Fremont/Greenlake (98103), and U District (98105) all came in well below the median as well, at 55, 74, and 63 respectively.

King and Snohomish County both had a county-wide median days on market of 90, while Pierce was slightly higher at 95.

The post Listings: Stale in West Seattle, Fresh in North Seattle appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

A couple days ago Redfin released their November market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

While median prices might be holding steady the time it takes to close has been lengthening. “About half of the buyers I’ve been working with have had their loans extended, and this is pushing out the buyers’ closing date,” said Coventry Merwin, a Redfin coordinator. “There doesn’t seem to be a pattern with respect to what type of bank it is, whether it’s a local or out of state lender, or the type of buyer. It seems to be a result of the lending climate in general. In November three of the six deals I worked on closed later than their contractual closing date. For December two out of the four of the deals will be closing late through no fault of the buyer. We find ourselves coaching buyers, these days, to expect the unexpected once the file goes to underwriting.”

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in November is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot for single-family homes, condos, or townhouses. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the geographic view to your liking.

Same story we’ve seen since the tax credit expired. Sales down year-over-year almost everywhere, with a handful of exceptions scattered here and there. The biggest winner in King County this month was Shoreline (98177), which saw sales shoot up 70% from 10 in November 2009 to 17 in November 2010. King County’s biggest decline was in (98055), where sales fell 50% from 14 in September to just 7 in October. Once again, very few neighborhoods saw year-over-year sales gains.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98115 — 40 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 57 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 66 sales.
• Thurston: 98501 — 38 sales.
• Kitsap: 98367 — 23 sales.

As is common for this time of year, inventory declined month-to-month in almost every neighborhood. Year-to-year was a little more mixed, with many neighborhoods showing gains, but many others actually down from 2009.

The median price was down in most neighborhoods from a year ago, while the median price per square foot fell in even more neighborhoods.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Winter Already Here in Seattle Real Estate appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last week Redfin released their October market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

“The majority of buyers I am working with are not in any hurry to purchase, but want to take advantage of the lower house values we see in the winter,” said Cheryl McLaine, a Redfin agent in Redmond and Kirkland. “On the other side, sellers who have been on the market for over several months with regular price drops seem to have little financial room to negotiate.”

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map the data here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in October is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in the month. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Although the overall sales volume was pretty pitiful, a number of zip codes did see month-to-month sales gains. The biggest winner in King County was Woodinville (98072), which saw sales nearly double from 10 in September to 19 in October. King County’s biggest decline was in Renton (98055), where sales fell 50% from 14 in September to just 7 in October. Once again, very few neighborhoods saw year-over-year sales gains.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in October in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98115 — 40 sales.
• Snohomish: 98012 — 57 sales.
• Pierce: 98387 — 66 sales.
• Thurston: 98501 — 38 sales.
• Kitsap: 98367 — 23 sales.

As is common for this time of year, inventory declined month-to-month in almost every neighborhood. Year-to-year was a little more mixed, with many neighborhoods showing gains, but many others actually down from 2009.

The median price was down in most neighborhoods from a year ago, while the median price per square foot fell in even more neighborhoods.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Market Still on Pause in October appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last week Redfin released their September market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

“Most of my clients are taking a wait-and-see approach to buying this past month,” said Michelle Swierz, a Redfin agent in Bellevue. “With little to no new inventory coming on the market, a lot of house hunters aren’t even finding homes they want to tour, let alone homes they would seriously consider purchasing.”
…
“Most buyers think they need to wait to start house hunting until spring when more homes are listed for sale,” said Kathryn Rion, a Redfin agent in Redmond. “But what they don’t realize is that many of the people listing their homes right now are extremely motivated to sell. There are deals to be had if you are able to move fast to pounce on an attractive listing, willing to negotiate, and can be patient with the process of searching for the right home.”

I agree, now through December is indeed the ideal time of year to find a good deal. If you’re not dead-set on finding that perfect “move-in-ready” dream home, you might be able to find a nice below-market deal on some stale property with a highly motivated seller. Of course, if you think that the area you’re looking in has more than another ten percent or so still to fall, it will probably be pretty hard to find a deal good enough to offset that kind of future decline.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map them here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in September is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in September. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. There is also a county selector that allows you to narrow, expand, or modify the view to your liking.

Sales were scattered between August and September, with some areas seeing strong gains (such as Queen Anne’s 98119—up 18.2% MOM) and others falling quite a bit (such as Madrona/Leschi’s 98122—down 37.5% MOM). Year-over-year very few neighborhoods were up, and none in the core of Seattle.

Here are the zip codes with the most SFH sales in September in King, Snohomish, Pierce, Thurston, and Kitsap County:

• King: 98059 (East Renton) — 36 sales
• Snohomish: (tie) 98258 (Lake Stevens) & 98270 (Marysville) — 46 sales
• Pierce: 98387 (Spanaway) — 50 sales
• Thurston: 98501 (Olympia) — 54 sales
• Kitsap: 98370 (Poulsbo) — 33 sales

Although inventory often does not begin to decline until November, most neighborhoods saw a decrease in inventory from August to September. The notable exceptions are Queen Anne and most of Capitol Hill, where the number of homes for sale increased between 8% and 18%.

Prices (both the raw median and the size-adjusted median price per square foot) were fairly mixed month to month, with most neighborhoods turning in continued price drops, but a few marking slight increases.

As usual, the zip codes that saw the largest swing in median prices had only around ten sales in the month, which isn’t really enough data to draw a strong trend from. That’s the problem with returning to the slowest market in a decade—it’s difficult to measure useful price trends when your sale samples are so small.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: September Sales Pre-Frozen for Winter appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last night Redfin released their August market data. Here’s an excerpt from the narrative:

Our agents are reporting a steady stream of low-ball offers hitting sellers across the board. “Low-ball offers are rolling off the tongue of touring clients,” says Kenny Whiteside, a Redfin field agent. … Kenny is quick to point out that these offers were rarely if ever accepted by the seller.

By now, we’ve all heard (over & over & over) how insulting a low-ball offer is to a seller, but one thing we haven’t heard is how these low-ball offers are actually helping the seller. Lori Bakken, a Redfin Real Estate Agent in Tukwila, Kent and Auburn says, “Sellers aren’t desperate enough to accept these low-ball offers, but it is helping agents set realistic expectations in regards to pricing. It shows the seller that perhaps they priced their home too high straight out of the gate.” The trends of list prices falling faster than sale prices and sale-to-list ratios increasing slightly would seem to validate this observation.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, and as usual, I’m going to map them here.

In the map below each zip code with enough sales in August is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in August. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. I’ve also added a county selector so you can narrow or expand the view to your liking.

Some of the more rural parts of east King County, as well as south King and a good part of Pierce saw increased sales month-to-month, but sales continued to fall most everywhere else last month, both year-over-year and month-over-month.

Inventory was flat to down month-to-month across most of the Puget Sound, but up 10-20% over a year ago through much of King County. Meanwhile, the size-adjusted median price ($/sqft) continued to fall in most places.

98109 (E. Queen Anne, SLU), 98039 (Medina), and 98055 (S. Renton) all turned in double-digit increases in size-adjusted median prices, but with fewer than a dozen sales each, I wouldn’t draw many broad conclusions based on this month’s data in those areas.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Summer Sales Slump Stretches On appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Last week Redfin released their latest monthly data, along with some interesting commentary and insights from their agents. Unlike the NWMLS releases which are always full of “I can’t believe what an amazing time it is for buyers” tripe, Redfin’s text is actually interesting and informative. Here’s an excerpt:

Here’s the word: after the first-time home-buyer tax credit expired, the few home sales that did occur were mostly high-end, driving median prices in King County up 2.6% compared to June.

But the truth is that demand was weak. King County sales volume fell 30.6% and inventory ticked up 1.0% at a time when home-buyers are usually snapping up whatever’s left on the market.
…
“Right now buyers want to ‘just try’ a low offer, only to have sellers get offended and refuse to respond,” said Robin McCue, a Redfin agent in Ballard. “The listing agent tells us what we would tell our listing clients: that a seller won’t take a 10% discount in negotiations without trying out that lower price on the broader market. Often both sides are unreasonable. We’ve seen buyers pushing a price that would drive sellers into a short sale, and a seller who rejected a 3% concession on a home 45 days on market. It’s crazy.”

This stand-off is taking its toll on sales volume. Last month, we predicted that King County sales in July would drop by 25% or more. This is exactly what happened, with a 30.6% decline.

You can download the full spreadsheet from Redfin here, but I still think an easier way to digest the numbers is in map form. In the map below each zip code with enough sales in July is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in July. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot. New this month: Townhomes.

Sales took a tumble almost everywhere last month. The notable exceptions for single-family homes were 98122 (Capitol Hill), 98008 (W. Lake Sammamish), 98119 (Queen Anne), 98105 (U. District), and 98020 (Edmonds). All fairly high-desirability and high-price areas, so it’s not too surprising that they would be somewhat unfazed by the tax credit expiration.

Inventory was flat to up month-to-month across most of King County, but flat to down in most of Snohomish. Meanwhile, the size-adjusted median price ($/sqft) fell in most of Seattle, but actually rose slightly on the Eastside and in parts of Snohomish County.

Queen Anne (98119) and Magnolia (98199) are especially interesting story this month, with sales increasing month-to-month, inventory down year-over-year, and size-adjusted median prices falling 15% to 30% from a year ago. There may be more buyers, but it certainly appears that they’re getting a lot better deals in those neighborhoods.

Anything stand out to you about your neighborhood in this month’s data?

The post Redfin: Seattle Home Sales Deep Freeze in July appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

With the latest monthly stats release from Redfin going live a couple days ago, I thought I would spend a little more time with the data (in addition to all the on-the-clock time I spent this week getting it prepared for release).

In order to make the numbers in the spreadsheet more digestible, I thought a Tableau map would be just what the number doctor ordered (big surprise, I’m sure). In the map below each zip code with enough sales in June is shown as a dot, with the size of the dot determined by the number of sales in that zip code in June. Each dot is color-coded based on whichever measure you select below the map. You can view the month-over-month or year-over-year changes in inventory, sales, median prices, or median prices per square foot.

[Update: By request, I have modified the color coding on the map below to a more colorblind-friendly palette.]

As you can see if you leave the map on its default setting, house sales took a tumble from May to June in most Seattle-area neighborhoods, but were slightly up month-to-month on the Eastside. I suspect with the (original, unextended) expiration of the tax credit at the end of June, next month that version of the map will see an awful lot more dots.

Interestingly, if you look at the raw median price year-over-year, you’ll see a fair bit of green in the central Seattle area, but if you flip the measure to the median price per square foot, much of that green turns to gray or red. This would seem to suggest that prices have actually fallen in many of these neighborhoods over the last year or so, but buyers are just purchasing bigger houses.

Let me know what you think of this method for visualizing Redfin’s housing market data. One thing that has always frustrated me about the available information has been that it was difficult to see how the market was changing from neighborhood to neighborhood. With Redfin’s data broken out by zip code, I think the ability to make a heat map like this goes a long way toward improving understanding of what’s really going on, but I’m interested to hear your feedback as well.

The post Redfin: Sales Stalling in Seattle, Climbing on Eastside appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s an interesting visualization that shows all the listings currently on the market around Seattle, with each zip code in King, Pierce, and Snohomish broken down by “non-distressed,” short sale, and bank-owned.

Not surprisingly, the percentage of distressed listings situation gets noticeably higher as you go further north and south out of central King County.

Looking at just single-family homes, the south Puyallup zip of 98375 seems to be the most distressed area in all three counties, with just under half the homes on the market (48%) being short sales or bank-owned.

Up in Snohomish, Marysville (98270) is the most-distressed area, with 88 short sales and 24 bank-owned homes, adding up to 40% of of the 281 total homes on the market there.

In King County, a number of areas in the south are highly distressed, with Federal Way (98023 & 98003), Lakeland (98001), Pacific (98047) and East Hill-Meridian (98031) all coming in with over 40% of their listings either short sales or bank-owned.

Here are the county-wide breakdowns:

King County

• 13,090 total listings
• 2,116 short sales (16%)
• 726 bank-owned (6%)
• 22% of listings distressed

Snohomish County

• 5,184 total listings
• 1,100 short sales (21%)
• 463 bank-owned (9%)
• 30% of listings distressed

Pierce County

• 5,881 total listings
• 1,162 short sales (20%)
• 452 bank-owned (8%)
• 27% of listings distressed

The post One in Four Seattle Area Home Listings are Distressed appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

In their first data release for the Seattle area, they dig into inventory, sales volume, and prices for King County and a number of specific cities. While the blog post contains a good amount of info, the detailed spreadsheet is where the real action is at.

In the spreadsheet they break down inventory, listing prices, sales volume, and sold prices, including price per square foot. The data is broken down by county (17 counties total), by city, and by neighborhood. Sweet!

Unfortunately, since they’re just getting started with this, there isn’t enough data available yet to generate any interesting charts, so instead here’s a quick comparison of May data from the NWMLS and comparable data from Redfin on King County SFH:

I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on this new data from Redfin as it is released each month.

The post Redfin Gets Into the Monthly Data Game appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

First up is a map of SAAS across King County:

Only three areas were strongly in “seller’s market” territory in April (SAAS <1.75), while twelve were still relatively strong “buyer’s markets” (SAAS >2.25). The remaining fifteen markets were more or less balanced.

Next, let’s have another look at the viz of neighborhood YOY median price changes that we introduced in March.

Not too surprisingly, median prices were down from April 2010 in twenty of the thirty neighborhoods around King County, with the few seeing gains being centered around Seattle and the Eastside.

The post Still a “Buyer’s Market” in Many Neighborhoods appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

It would be interesting to see what the median price buys you this year compared to last year, or the year before.

With some neighborhoods around Seattle showing year-over-year gains in their median prices, it would be informative to see just what kind of houses people are buying at the median price compared to a year ago.

Since I don’t have full access to a database with all the details for every home sold over the last few years, this exercise will be anecdotal, but I still think it will interesting.

For this post, we will examine the King County NWMLS areas listed in the following table. The single-family home (SFH) median prices listed below are an average of December through February in order to smooth out the noise that results from such small sample sizes.

Click the description of an area to jump to that area in the post below.

*6-month rolling average

In my anecdotal analysis of thirty SFH sales scattered around King County, I found that even in areas where the median prices are flat or going up, buyers seem to be getting more home for their money. The 2010 benefit ranged from 3% larger homes (for 19% less money) in Kirkland to a whopping 65% more square footage for roughly the same price as 2009 in the Greenlake area.

Below you will find the full sampling of three SFH sales in each of the above areas from January/February 2009 and three from January/February 2010. I’ll be looking for closed sales that fall within ±5% of the above-listed 3-month average of the median.

Hit the jump for the detailed tables and analysis.

Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood (705)

2009

2010

In our sampling of the Ballard / Greenlake / Greenwood area, the average early 2009 buyer paid $397,000 for 2.3 bedrooms and 1 bathroom in 1,097 square feet on a 3,623 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $402,167 for 3.3 bedrooms and 1.5 bathrooms in 1,820 square feet on a 4,018 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers got roughly 65% larger houses than the 2009 buyers for nearly the same price.

U District, Wedgewood, Lake City (710)

2009

2010

In our sampling of the U District / Wedgewood / Lake City area, the average early 2009 buyer paid $448,333 for 2.7 bedrooms and 1.6 bathrooms in 1,753 square feet on a 4,539 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $441,333 for 3 bedrooms and 1.9 bathrooms in 2,150 square feet on a 5,148 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers got roughly 15% more house than the 2009 buyers for nearly the same price.

Capitol Hill, Madison Park (390)

2009

Note: I had to go a little bit outside the date and price range to find three sales for 390.

2010

In our sampling of the Capitol Hill / Madison Park area, the average early 2009 buyer paid $506,000 for 3 bedrooms and 1.3 bathrooms in 2,087 square feet on a 3,957 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $522,667 for 3.7 bedrooms and 2.1 bathrooms in 2,617 square feet on a 3,466 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers got roughly 30% more house (but about 10% less land) than the 2009 buyers for a slightly higher price (3.3%).

East of Lake Sammamish (540)

2009

2010

In our sampling of the area east of Lake Sammamish, the average early 2009 buyer paid $545,000 for 3.7 bedrooms and 2.6 bathrooms in 2,353 square feet on a 9,914 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $511,657 for 4 bedrooms and 2.6 bathrooms in 2,550 square feet on a 8,897 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers got roughly 8% bigger houses (on 10% less land) than the 2009 buyers for 6% lower prices.

Kirkland, Bridle Trails, Rose Hill (560)

2009

2010

In our sampling of the Kirkland / Bridle Trails / Rose Hill area, the average early 2009 buyer paid $664,333 for 3.7 bedrooms and 3.2 bathrooms in 2,964 square feet on a 9,011 square foot lot. The average early 2010 buyer paid $538,882 for 4 bedrooms and 3 bathrooms in 3,043 square feet on a 7,562 square foot lot. In other words, the 2010 buyers on average paid roughly 19% less for slightly larger houses on slightly smaller lots.

The post Buyers Getting More House for Their Money Even as Median Prices Rise appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s what the YOY median price breakdown looks like at the region level:

SW King: -12.8%
SE King: -11.1%
Seattle: +1.4%
N. King: -17.2%
Eastside: +1.0%

See what I mean? Outside of Seattle proper and the Eastside, median prices still seem to be falling quite fast. Eric Pryne at the Seattle Times noticed this as well, making it the focus of his report last week.

In order to explore this further, I have taken the February data from the NWMLS and plugged it into a Tableau map. Unfortunately, Tableau does not let you draw arbitrary boundary lines, so for the full map of the NWMLS areas with the boundary lines drawn, you’ll have to go here.

Hit the jump for the interactive map.

With just three and six closed sales, Vashon and Mercer Islands saw the most extreme swings in their respective median prices, falling 38% on Vashon and rising a whopping 124% on Mercer. Most of the other neighborhoods around King County fell within a more normal range, with the exception of the Capitol Hill area, where the median shot up over 45%. That could be because last year that area saw just 17 sales in February.

Ten of thirty areas saw YOY gains in their median prices. The average gain among those ten was 22% (skewed high by Mercer), and the median gain was 6.4%.

Of the twenty areas that saw YOY declines in their median price, the average loss was -12.2%, and the median was -13.2%. In other words, in the neighborhoods where prices are still falling, they tend to still be falling pretty fast.

The post Median Prices Still Crashing in Some Neighborhoods appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, courtesy Tableau Software (available free to use online), the neighborhoods SAAS update is rocking sweet interactive data visualizations. Click a region or a neighborhood to filter the charts below or get details on a specific point.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS moved further above the “balanced” level, moving up to 2.35 in January (December was 2.10). Only 3 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 23 of 30 came in above 2.25 as a buyer’s market, and the remaining 4 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Only four areas came in as stronger buyers’ markets than January 2009: Downtown Seattle condos (701), Renton / Benson Hill (340), Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100), and Burien / Normandy Park (130).

Regional History

Most neighborhoods continued to rise from December to January, after bottoming out (likely thanks to the tax credit) in November.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Renton / Benson Hill (340) at 5.1, Kirkland / Bridle Trails (560) at 4.3, and Mercer Island (510) at 3.6.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Queen Anne / Magnolia (700) at 1.2, North Seattle (710) at 1.5, and Eastside south of I-90 (500) at 1.7.

The post January Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, courtesy Tableau Software (available free to use online soon!), the neighborhoods SAAS update is rocking sweet interactive data visualizations.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS jumped back above the “balanced” level, coming in at 2.10 for December (November was 1.52). 9 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 12 of 30 came in above 2.25 as a buyer’s market, and the remaining 9 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Only a few areas came in as stronger buyers’ markets than December 2008, with 11 markets flipping from buyers’ markets last year to sellers’ markets this year.

Regional History

Lots of neighborhoods ticked up from November to December, despite the seasonal adjustment inherent in the SAAS calculation. The fake expiration of the tax credit is probably to blame there.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 4.8, Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) at 4.0, and Des Moines / Redondo (120) at 3.8.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Queen Anne / Magnolia (700) at 1.3, Skyway (360) at 1.4, and West Bellevue (510) at 1.5.

The post December Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations (new and improved!) in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS continued to drop below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.59 for October (September was 1.80). 18 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets (over half for the first time in recent years), Only 1 of 30 came in above 2.25 as a buyer’s market, and the remaining 11 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

120 (Des Moines) is the only region that came in as a convincing buyer’s market, with an SAAS of 2.9.

Regional History

Not surprisingly, the recent decline in SAAS has been felt pretty much all across King County.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Des Moines / Redondo (120) at 2.9, Kirkland / Bridle Trails (560) at 2.1, and Black Diamond / Maple Valley (320) at 2.1.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Juanita / Woodinville (600) at 1.2, Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) at 1.3, and Redmond / Carnation (550) at 1.3.

The post October Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations (new and improved!) in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dropped further below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.80 for September (August was 1.88). 11 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 5 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 14 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Downtown Seattle condos still stick out like a bit of a sore thumb, coming in with an SAAS above 3.

Regional History

Most regions again saw declining SAAS values from August to September, probably due to the increasing number of sales that are being spurred by the tax credit. Further evidence that the tax credit may be heating up the market can be found in the fact that some of the cheapest parts of the county (down in the south) are seeing the largest drops in their SAAS.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 3.1, Enumclaw (300) at 2.4, and Central Seattle (380) at 2.4.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Vashon Island (800) at 1.3, East Bellevue (530) at 1.4, and East Lake Sammamish (540), at 1.5.

The post September Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Methodology
The prices quoted below are for a 3-bed, 2-bath single-family homes with 1,750 to 2,000 square feet. For the rentals, these are based on actual houses I found currently on the rental market. For the sales, I used sale records of actual prices that people have paid in the last three months. Where possible, I have located multiple samples that match the description above and taken the average price.

To calculate the monthly payment (principal + interest only), I’ll be using a 5.15% interest rate (roughly the average over the last three months), (generously) assuming 20% down on a 30-year mortgage. Keep in mind that the true cost of buying also includes insurance, taxes, maintenance, and a host of other costs generally not paid by a renter. For a more detailed breakdown of the total costs (and tax benefits) of buying, hit up this 2007 post.

I have also indicated the price to rent ratio, which is simply the home price divided by the total rent paid in a year.

According to a table of data from Fortune Magazine, Seattle’s price-to-rent ratio just before the local peak in prices was at 38.0, compared to a 15-year average of 23.3. In our table above, the average price-to-rent ratio for a 3-bed, 2-bath home in a handful of Seattle-area neighborhoods comes out to 24.3. Unfortunately, the two are not directly comparable since Forbes’ calculation included houses, condos, and apartments all among the rentals (which would drive the rental prices lower and the long-term average price-to-rent ratio higher), while my data was drawn only from single-family homes.

While home prices have come down some since I first researched the rent vs. buy discussion in detail back in 2007, a growing oversupply of repartmenting condos and accidental landlords is also pushing down rents recently, so the price-to-rent ratio hasn’t actually changed as much as one might expect.

Overall, price-to-rent ratios in the low-to-mid 20s still seems a bit high. Not crazy out of control bubble high, but it still looks like there is room for a bit more correction. Especially when you consider that the current prices are being artificially propped up by unnaturally low interest rates and the $8,000 tax credit in the midst of nearly 10% unemployment and a local economic scene that has yet to show any clear signs of turning the corner.

* [Updated, see comment #71 below.]

The post Rent vs. Buy Comparisons: Have the excesses been removed? appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

As usual, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

With new listings continuing to wane, King County’s overall SAAS finally dropped below the “balanced” level, coming in at 1.88 for August (July was 2.01). 10 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 7 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 13 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Other than downtown condos, Seattle proper had the strongest showing last month for Sellers, with five of its eight areas coming in below 2.0.

Regional History

Most regions saw declining SAAS values from July to August, probably because people aren’t listing their homes as summer winds down unless they absolutely need to sell.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 3.8, Enumclaw (300) at 2.8, and Des Moines / Redondo (120) at 2.7.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Vashon Island (800), Queen Anne / Magnolia (700), and Richmond Beach / Shoreline (715), all tied at about 1.5.

The post August Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Yet again, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dipped ever so slightly in July, coming in pretty much right on a “balanced” market again at 2.01 (June was 2.06). 6 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 11 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 14 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Southeast King and the Eastside were more or less tied as the best regions for buyers, with SAAS in each averaging about 2.4.

Regional History

July was a mixed bag, as SAAS increased from June in some neighborhoods, but decreased in others.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Vashon Island (800) at 4.3, Enumclaw (300) at 4.0, and downtown Seattle condos (701) at 3.8.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were U District / Wedgewood / Lake City (710) at 1.2, Skyway (360) at 1.4, and east Bellevue (530) at 1.5.

The post July Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Yet again, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dipped again in June, coming in just barely in “buyer’s market” territory at 2.06. For all practical purposes, the market was pretty much balanced between buyers and sellers in June. 4 of 30 areas came in below 1.75 as seller’s markets, 15 of 30 came in above 2.25 as buyer’s markets, and the remaining 11 were more or less balanced between 1.75 and 2.25.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Southeast King actually came in with the strongest showing for buyers last month, which should come as no surprise given what we saw when we broke down the sales patterns on a geographic basis earlier in the month.

Regional History

Seasonally-adjusted active supply decreased again in most neighborhoods from May to June. Most of the exceptions to this pattern came in Southeast King.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 4.0, West Bellevue (520) at 3.6, and Enumclaw (300) at 3.5.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard / Greenlake / Greenwood at 1.3, Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) at 1.5, and U District / Wedgewood / Lake City (710) at 1.6.

The post June Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Yet again, the sweet interactive data visualizations in today’s post come to you courtesy Tableau Software.

In the charts below I have taken the calculated value for SAAS and subtracted 2, in order to better visualize the difference between a buyer’s market and a seller’s market. Using this method, negative SAAS values indicate a seller’s market, while positive values indicate a buyer’s market.

Summary

King County’s overall SAAS dipped slightly in May, from April’s 2.9, but remained slightly in “buyer’s market” territory at 2.3.

Hit the jump for the rest of this month’s interactive charts and commentary.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Only eight of thirty neighborhoods were in “seller’s market” territory in May, none of which were located on the Eastside.

Regional History

Seasonally-adjusted active supply decreased in most neighborhoods from April to May, as one would expect due to the seasonal nature of the real estate market. Jovita / West Hill Auburn (100) and Des Moines / Redondo (120) were notable exceptions.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Vashon Island (800) at 5.2, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 4.9, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) and Mercer Island (510) tied at 4.1.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 1.4, Lake Forest Park / Kenmore (720) at 1.6, and Dash Point / Federal Way (110) at 1.7.

The post May Seasonally-Adjusted Active Supply by Neighborhood appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Unfortunately, due to a change in definition by the NWMLS last July, the number of active listings will be lower than a year ago, while the number of pending sales will be higher, causing the months of supply to be lower than it would otherwise have been.

Summary

April MOS for King County as a whole dipped down further into so-called “seller’s market” territory at 4.5.

Here’s a year-over-year comparison for each NWMLS neighborhood. Again, take the below comparison with a giant grain of salt, since the NWMLS has changed the way they count listings and pendings since last year. As an example of how this data may be skewed, if there were 6,000 active listings last year (300 of which—5%—were “subject to inspection”) and 1,000 pending sales, we would have had 6.0 months of supply. However, this year under the new counting method, the same scenario would result in 5,700 active listings and 1,300 pending sales (300 being “pending inspection”), giving us 4.4 months of supply—27% lower.

Year-Over-Year Comparison

Even with the change, most of the Eastside remains above 6 months of supply, while most of the other neighborhoods around King have dropped below 6.

Regional History

Months of supply decreased again in most neighborhoods from March to April, matching the normal seasonal pattern. Just nine of thirty neighborhoods remained in “buyer’s market” territory.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped further into “seller’s market” territory at 3.7, while the Eastside as a whole dropped as well, but remained a “buyer’s market” at 6.2.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Enumclaw (300) at 11.3, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 10.8, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 9.9.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 2.3, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 2.4, and North Seattle (710) at 2.7.

The post April Neighborhoods Months of Supply Interactive Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s your look at March’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

March MOS for King County as a whole dipped down into so-called “seller’s market” territory at 5.70 (compared to 6.19 for March 2008). The record run of county-wide 6+ MOS has ended at eighteen months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the thirteen-month period of March 2008 through March 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). The charts all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely overstating the magnitude of the “seller’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. March 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

Months of supply decreased in most neighborhoods from February to March, which is the usual pattern as we move from winter to spring. Twelve neighborhoods remained in “buyer’s market” territory, while eighteen are now “seller’s markets.”

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped well into “seller’s market” territory at 4.5, while the Eastside as a whole dropped slightly, but remained a “buyer’s market” at 8.4.

Only eight of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a buyer’s market than a year ago. Four neighborhoods still came in above 10 MOS (two fewer than last month), firmly in buyer’s market territory.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Mercer Island (510) at 21.3, Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 15.2, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 13.3. Along with the county-wide stats breaking their 18-month streak of 6+, 520 also broke its 18-month streak of 10+ MOS, falling to 8.8.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 2.8, and North Seattle (710) at 3.1, and Central Seattle SW / Beacon Hill (385) at 3.6.

The post March Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Here’s your look at February’s “Months of Supply” for the 30 NWMLS areas in King County. For an explanation of what months of supply means, please refer to the original neighborhood MOS breakdown post. Also, view a map of these areas here.

February MOS for King County as a whole dipped slightly down to 7.54 (compared to 6.14 for February 2008). The record run of 6+ MOS is now eighteen months. Recall that the previous record was around 6 months in the winter of ’94-’95.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the thirteen-month period of February 2008 through February 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). The charts all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. February 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

February’s month-to-month trend for months of supply was all over the board across King County, with some increasing and some decreasing in a seemingly random fashion. The only apparent pattern in the data was a steep decline in MOS in most of the southeast King neighborhoods. Median prices in all seven of these neighborhoods are comfortably below the county-wide median, so this could be a sign of an uptick in buying activity in the lower price ranges.

Five neighborhoods registered as “sellers’ markets” with under 6.0 MOS in February—West Seattle (140), Black Diamond / Maple Valley (320), Ballard (705), North Seattle (710), and Shoreline (715).

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper dropped slightly again, but is still in “buyer’s market” territory at 6.2 in January. The Eastside as a whole inched up to 11.5.

Nine of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Six neighborhoods were above 10 MOS (the same number as last month), firmly in buyer’s market territory.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Mercer Island (510) at 15.8, East Side–South of I-90 (500) at 14.9, and Kirkland–Bridle Trails (560) at 13.1. While not in the top three, 520 extended its 10+ MOS streak, now at 18 months.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were the same as January: Shoreline (715) at 4.5, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.6, and North Seattle (710) at 4.8.

The post February Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

While we have had regular monthly updates on the county-wide median prices, we haven’t really taken a look at the price breakdowns by neighborhood for a while. Let’s check in on the total drop in median prices by neighborhood.

The chart below shows the total drop in the single-family median price from the peak month to the lowest month to date for each of 29 NWMLS neighborhoods (701—Downtown Seattle excluded, see a map here).

Note that the peak months ranged from January to November 2007. For the price troughs came in February for 11 areas, in January for 9 areas, in October through December in 8 areas, and in June for Area 550 (Redmond, Carnation).

The largest drops so far have been in Mercer Island (510) and Medina/Clyde Hill/West Bellevue (520) tied at 52%, Skyway (360) at 54%, and Vashon Island (800) at 55% off.

The smallest drops so far have been in Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 24%, Black Diamond/Maple Valley (320) at 23%, and East Bellevue (530) at 22% off.

It’s interesting that at 22% off, the county-wide drop from the peak is equal to the smallest drop that has been seen to date in any individual neighborhood. Due to the low volume of closed sales in individual neighborhoods, the median price tends to fluctuate more than it does county-wide. When comparing the individual peaks to February 2009, 8 neighborhoods have dropped 22% or less.

Does a median price drop of 50% off or more in a neighborhood mean that most houses in that neighborhood have had their values drop 50%? Probably not. But it is definitely more likely that houses in such neighborhoods have dropped in price considerably more than those in neighborhoods with only a 20% drop.

The post Median Prices Down Over 50% in Parts of King appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

January MOS for King County as a whole backed down from December’s record high, coming in at 7.77 (compared to 7.54 for January 2008), bringing the record run of 6+ MOS to seventeen months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of February 2008 through January 2009. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). I had been trying to keep the graphs on the same vertical scale, but with MOS skyrocketing in a handful of areas in the Eastside and Vashon, I gave up on that. The charts still all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. It is also important to remember that whatever the reason, over twenty-five percent of pending sales are not making it to closing, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. January 2008 is in red, and 2009 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

Months of supply generally declined in most areas across King County, with six neighborhoods registering as “sellers’ markets” with under 6.0 MOS—Jovita/West Hill Auburn (110), Renton Highlands / Kennydale (350), Beacon Hill (385), Ballard (705), North Seattle (710), and Shoreline (715).

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper also backed off slightly, but remained in “buyer’s market” territory at 6.51 in January. The Eastside as a whole dropped three points down to 10.14.

Fifteen of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Six neighborhoods were above 10 MOS (compared to 12 last month), firmly in buyer’s market territory.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Mercer Island (510) at 46.0 (no that’s not a typo—there were only 3 pending sales on the entire island), Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 14.2, and Downtown Seattle condos (701) at 12.7. 520 yet again extended its 10+ MOS streak, now at 17 months.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.5, North Seattle (710) at 4.6, and Shoreline (715) at 4.8.

The post January Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

December MOS for King County as a whole came in at yet another record-high 9.56 (compared to 7.54 for December 2007 and 8.75 for November), bringing the record run of 6+ MOS to sixteen months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of January 2008 through December 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). I had been trying to keep the graphs on the same vertical scale, but with MOS skyrocketing in a handful of areas in the Eastside and Vashon, I gave up on that. The charts still all have the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0. Also keep in mind that whatever the reason, pending sales have become increasingly disconnected from closed sales recently, which means that these statistics are likely understating the magnitude of the “buyer’s market.”

We’ll start off with the chart that lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. December 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Following below are the breakouts for SW King, SE King, Seattle, N King, and the Eastside, as well as a summary of this month’s data.

Note: Area 100 (Jovita/West Hill Auburn) was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

In December only one area in King County registered as a “seller’s market” with under 6.0 MOS—705 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood). Even 710 (NE Seattle: Wedgewood, Lake City, etc.) finally edged over 6, coming in at 6.22.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper continued to push further into buyer’s market territory, coming in at 7.59 in December. The Eastside as a whole shot back up again month-to-month to a new record high of 13.04.

Six of thirty neighborhoods trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Twelve neighborhoods were above 10 MOS, firmly in buyer’s market territory (one more than last month).

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 29.22 (over two years), Mercer Island (510) at 25.80, and Vashon Island at 19.67. 520 continues its 10+ MOS streak, now at 16 months. Psst… Hey Bill… bet you can drive some pretty hard bargains right about now if you’re looking to expand your estate…

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 5.44, North Seattle (710) at 6.22, and Jovita/West Hill Auburn (100) at 6.84. The “best markets for sellers” list is starting to seem like a “most slender hippopotamus” contest or something…

The post December Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

September MOS for King County as a whole came in at 6.57 (compared to 7.21 for September 2007 and 6.80 for August), bringing the current run to thirteen months—three times the previous record in the winter of 1994-1995.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of October 2007 through September 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note that there are a few areas that appear to have no bar at all for a given month—this represents an MOS value at or close to 6.0.

Note: Area 100 (Jovita/West Hill Auburn) was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

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Note: Area 800 (Vashon Island) was over 17 in September, and has been clipped.

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Note: MOS in area 520 (Medina, W. Bellevue) was over 19 in August, and has been clipped.

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Ten of thirty King County areas were in seller’s market territory in September, ranging from 4.35 MOS in 705 (Ballard, Greenlake, Greenwood) to 5.96 MOS in 300 (Enumclaw). The city of Seattle continued to be the strongest region overall, with four of eight areas coming in below 6 MOS.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper increased slightly from 5.02 in August to 5.13 in September, down from 5.81 in September 2007. The Eastside as a whole decreased month-to-month to 8.03 MOS, up just barely from September 2007′s 7.97.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. September 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Breaking from the recent pattern, seventeen of thirty neighborhoods actually trended more toward a seller’s market than a year ago. Some of these are still in buyer’s market territory, but six areas swung from a buyer’s market in September 2007 to a seller’s market in September 2008. This was likely due largely to the spike in pending sales that we mentioned in the main NWMLS roundup. The most dramatic of these swings was in area 340 (Renton–Benson Hill), which went from 14.3 MOS last year to 5.7 this year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Vashon Island (800) at 17.86, Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 12.31, and Mercer Island (510) at 11.29. 520 continues its 10+ MOS streak, now at 13 months.

North Seattle neighborhoods continue to hold their title as the strongest markets in which to sell a home. The three best markets for sellers as of last month were the same as the last two months: Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.35, North Seattle (710) at 4.48, and West Seattle (140) at 4.61.

The post September Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

August MOS for King County came in at 6.80 (compared to 4.92 for August 2007 and 7.21 for September), bringing the current run to a full year (vs. the previous record of 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995).

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of September 2007 through August 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Note: MOS in area 520 (Medina, W. Bellevue) was over 19 in August, and has been clipped.

Click to enlarge

A handful of neighborhoods scattered throughout the county were seller’s markets in August. Even in the recently strong city of Seattle, four of eight areas were buyer’s markets in August.

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper decreased slightly from 5.06 in July to 5.02 in August, up from 3.65 in August 2007. The Eastside as a whole increased to 8.4 MOS, well over August 2007′s 5.2.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. August 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Yet again, even the neighborhoods that remain in “seller’s market” territory were trending more toward a buyer’s market than last year.  The single exception is area Dash Point / Federal Way (110), where MOS went from 6.5 last year to 5.6 this year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 15.76, Enumclaw (300) at 11.31, and Mercer Island (510) at 11.06. 520 has now been over 10 MOS for a full year.  I guess Bill Gates just isn’t buying property like he used to.

North Seattle neighborhoods continue to hold their title as the strongest markets in which to sell a home. The three best markets for sellers as of last month were the same as last month: North Seattle (710) at 3.74, Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 4.09, and West Seattle (140) at 4.57.

The post August Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.

Remember: Over 6 MOS is a buyer’s market, which gives buyers more negotiating power, but doesn’t mean homes are priced attractively for buyers or that it’s a good time to buy. Before this year, the longest that King County as a whole has sustained a MOS above 6 was 4-5 months in the winter of 1994-1995. July MOS for King County came in at 6.62 (compared to 4.06 for July 2007), bringing the current run to eleven months.

In the graphs below, you’re looking at the MOS for the “Res Only” data from the NWMLS King County Breakout pdfs for the one-year period of August 2007 through July 2008. The bar graph is centered vertically on 6.0 MOS, so that it is easier to visually tell the difference between a seller’s and buyer’s market (i.e. – shorter bars mean a more balanced market). Each graph again has the same scale on the vertical axis and has the King County aggregate figure plotted in red on the far right, so they can be easily compared.

Note: Area 100 MOS was over 21 in January, and has been clipped.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Note: For Area 701 (Downtown Seattle) we’re using condo data.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Note: Area 520 MOS was over 19 in July, and has been clipped.

Click to enlarge

Not a single neighborhood outside the Seattle city limits was a seller’s market in July. The city of Seattle seems to be the last holdout of home sellers in King County, with only two areas in the city coming in as buyer’s markets, 700 (Queen Anne / Magnolia) and 701 (Downtown Condos).

The cumulative MOS for Seattle proper increased from 4.6 in June to 5.1 in July, up from 3.0 in July 2007. The Eastside as a whole shot up to just under 8.0 MOS, nearly double July 2007′s 4.2.

Here’s the bonus graph, which lets you directly compare each area’s MOS to its value one year ago. July 2007 is in red, and 2008 is in blue.

Click to enlarge

Every area was more of a buyer’s market in July than it was at this time last year.

The three toughest markets for sellers were Medina / Clyde Hill / W. Bellevue (520) at 19.47 (yikes!), Enumclaw (300) at 12.31, and Vashon Island (800) at 12.27. 520 is now just one month away from a one-year streak of 10+ MOS.

The three best markets for sellers as of last month were Ballard/Greenlake/Greenwood (705) at 3.91, North Seattle (710) at 4.20, and West Seattle (140) at 4.83. Seeing West Seattle on that list is a particular surprise, given the number of flops we’ve seen in that neighborhood in recent months.

The post July Neighborhoods Months of Supply Update appeared first on Seattle Bubble.