Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Cohen'

July Reporting Roundup: Sales are Up, Up, UP!

By The Tim on August 6th, 2009 at 2:45 PM · 31 Comments

For some reason, the NWMLS press release still has not been posted to their public site yet.

[Update: Here's a link to the press release on NWMLS.com: Northwest MLS brokers say housing market is recovering, but still "spongy". My favorite part is "July's unseasonably hot weather curtailed activity for several showings and open houses, as brokers and agents said buyers and sellers postponed tours, saying it was just too hot." "Several" people may have delayed their home shopping by a few days, and that's even worth mentioning? Wow.]

Before we get into this month’s news reports crowing about the increase in sales, here’s a little chart that shows the time between when pending sales went negative year-over-year and when the median price went negative year-over-year.

King County SFH Pending Sales and Median Price YOY Changes

Pending sales had been negative for over two years before prices began to fall. Keep that in mind when you hear claims that a few months of year-over-year positive sales data is allegedly a sign that prices will stabilize in the short term. Not likely.

Here’s another chart, this one showing the year-to-date change in the median price, both in 2008 and 2009:

King Co. Year-to-Date SFH Price Change

Does the fact that prices have risen from their March low indicate price drops are over? Probably not.

Read on for this month’s reporting roundup from the Times, P-I, Herald, News-Tribune, and Olympian.

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June Reporting Roundup: Muted Enthusiasm for Increasing Sales

By The Tim on July 7th, 2009 at 10:49 AM · 37 Comments

With sales skyrocketing to a massive four percent gain over last year and median prices shooting through the roof, the housing market recovery is on, and it’s a race to report it. Let’s check in with the local news outlets to see who had the most sensational write-up this month.

First up, the NWMLS press release that accompanied yesterday’s numbers: "Aware and prepared buyers" help boost Western Washington home sales during June

“Encouraging” seemed to be a common response from brokers upon reviewing the June activity summaries from Northwest Multiple Listing Service. The report shows inventory continues to shrink, pending sales increased more than 19.5 percent from a year ago, and median prices system-wide are up 4.4 percent since January.

“The positive movement in our real estate market year over year is really very encouraging,” remarked Ron G. Sparks, managing vice president of Coldwell Banker Bain. Compared to 12 months ago, the Puget Sound region has nearly 7,000 fewer homes listed for sale, and nearly 1,200 more homes under contract, he noted, adding, “In anyone’s book, that’s substantial improvement.”

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate, echoed those comments. “It’s encouraging to see that pending sales are at their highest since the credit bubble burst nearly two years ago,” he stated. While the median home price is down approximately 10 percent from a year ago, median prices have flattened over the past seven to nine months, he noted. “This is an indication that the $8,000 tax credit is working and the market has reactivated itself in the more affordable and mid price ranges,” Scott believes.

“There is a definite upsurge in sales activity, from a pending sales perspective and a “lookers becoming buyers” perspective,” observed NWMLS director Dick Beeson. Agents are reinvigorated that buyers can and will make decisions more today than any other time over the past 12 months, according to Beeson, the broker at Windermere Real Estate/Commencement Associates in Tacoma.

Beeson believes mortgage rates remaining low, declining inventories, and the recent stretch of warm, dry weather helped spur some buyers to act.

This month’s release is conspicuously lacking in the bottom calls and “buy now or you’ll be sorry” sentiment that has permeated previous NWMLS publications. They almost seem to have become less certain of immenent recovery, even as the sales finally begin to pick up. Could they perhaps be looking at the bigger picture and realizing that even once the bottom is in, the market is likely to roll along the bottom for years?

Or maybe I’m just reading too much into it.

Before we get into this month’s news reports, here’s a quick graphical representation of how far off closed sales are from pending sales so far this year:

King County SFH Pending & Closed Sales

The April to June rise in closed sales actually looks rather similar to the February to April rise in pendings. Pendings rose 67% from February to April, and closed sales rose 65% from April to June. Interesting, for sure.

If the pattern holds for the next two months with the 16% pending rise from April to June carrying over into closed sales from June to August, August will see roughly 1,900 closed sales (a 25% YOY increase). That feels a little higher than I’d expect to see, but I certainly wouldn’t put it outside the realm of possibility.

Read on for this month’s reporting roundup from the Times, P-I, Herald, News-Tribune, and Olympian.

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Weekend News Roundup

By The Tim on July 6th, 2009 at 8:00 AM · 18 Comments

Lots of local real estate related news over the weekend worth mentioning. Here’s a brief roundup of the stories you might be interested in.

Let’s kick things off with some good news via Aubrey Cohen at the P-I. Looks like the state’s irresponsible plan to pre-distribute $8,000 tax credit is dead in the water, thanks to the IRS.

SeattlePI.com: State clarifies state of tax credit loan plan

There has been a lot of information circulating in the past few months regarding a possible Tax Credit bridge loan program that would have potentially “monetized” the currently available $8,000 federal tax credit for qualified first time homebuyers. This potential program would have allowed these first time homebuyers to actually come to the closing table with their credit in hand, as opposed to waiting to have these funds available until after closing.

On June 2, 2009, the IRS formally declined this request citing long-standing regulations requiring refunds be paid only to the person or persons filing the tax return. Due to significant financial risks associated with the Tax Credit bridge loan program and recent guidance published from the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Commission discontinued the development of the Tax Credit bridge loan program.

Next up, a bit of humor from SmartMoney.com, who you may recall last October labeled Seattle as “in the best shape for a rebound.”

SmartMoney.com: 5 Housing Markets That Have Further to Fall

In the Northwest, median home prices are down but they remain above the national average. Portland’s prices fell 2.1% in March. Home prices in Seattle were down 2.0% for the month.

The Pacific Northwest bubble was among the last to burst, which could mean the market will be among the last to recover.

And here’s a handful of additional stories for you to digest this post-holiday Monday morning…

Seattle Times: Landmark Smith Tower mostly vacant

Thanks to the recession and Washington Mutual’s collapse, there’s no shortage of vacant office space in downtown Seattle. One of the emptiest buildings also is one of the region’s best-known and most-loved.

The 95-year-old Smith Tower, once the tallest building west of Chicago, is at least 70 percent vacant, according to online listings and commercial real-estate databases.

Walton Street bought the 257,000-square-foot Smith Tower for $43 million in April 2006, when the market was nearing its peak and the tower was 92 percent occupied, according to its previous owner.

Less than a year later the new owner sought — and ultimately received — city approval to convert the entire building to condos, a move prompted, in part, by the impending departure of the tower’s two largest office tenants.

When the downtown condo market began to cool later in 2007, Walton Street scaled back its condo-conversion plans to just the top 12 stories.

But it hasn’t pursued permits for that scenario for more than a year, city records indicate.

The Smith Tower has always been my favorite building in downtown Seattle. It’s a shame to see it sit unused like this. I actually like the idea of converting it to condos, although I’m not sure there would be all that much appeal to live in Pioneer Square…

Seattle Times: Lynnwood’s City Bank gets tighter scrutiny

City Bank of Lynnwood, hurt by heavy lending to developers and homebuilders, on Thursday became the latest local bank to submit to tighter oversight from federal and state regulators.

It signed an agreement, called a cease-and-desist order, that requires City Bank to shrink the volume of nonperforming loans and foreclosed real estate it’s carrying on its books; reduce its dependence on brokered deposits; increase its capital levels; and make other operational and organizational changes.

Puget Sound Business Journal: Lexas believes condo buyers will show up

Call him a contrarian. Escala developer Eric Midby expects to move ahead with a pair of high-rise hotel and condominium towers at a time when nearly every other developer has decided to sit out this market because of the recession.

Midby, a principal and development manager at Lexas Cos., is betting that by getting the company’s next condo project under way now, he can exploit a two-year gap in the delivery of new condominium units in downtown Seattle that starts next year.

“We firmly believe that Seattle very soon is going to have a shortage of housing, that all the units in downtown will fill up and there will be continued demand,” Midby said.

Seattle Times: Property taxes: Appeals shoot up is King, Snohomish Counties

Homeowners complained in near-record numbers about high valuations last year. Appeals of property values shot up more than threefold in King County, from 3,767 in 2007 to 13,156 in 2008. The last time there were that many appeals was 1991, when a sluggish real-estate market followed several years of rapidly climbing home values.

Appeals also increased in Snohomish County last year — from 1,688 to 2,347.

Appeals resulted in lowered values about half the time in King County and about a third of the time in Snohomish County, according to the assessors.

I remind any Seattle Bubble readers that are considering appealing their assessment that S-Crow posted a useful “how-to” on this process that would be a good starting point.

West Seattle Blog: City Council townhouse talk in West Seattle: Less (rules) is more?

…As in, less (fewer) restrictions could mean more variety in housing units. Or, so said the architects from whom City Councilmember Sally Clark and her Planning, Land Use and Neighborhoods Committee heard at Youngstown Arts Center Tuesday night.

The West Seattle meeting addressed only a slice of the Multi-Family Code Update, townhouses and “low-rise” zoning in particular.

And finally, here’s a national story on the subject of “strategic defaults,” which we have been discussing lately.
Wall Street Journal: New Evidence on the Foreclosure Crisis

What is really behind the mushrooming rate of mortgage foreclosures since 2007? The evidence from a huge national database containing millions of individual loans strongly suggests that the single most important factor is whether the homeowner has negative equity in a house — that is, the balance of the mortgage is greater than the value of the house. This means that most government policies being discussed to remedy woes in the housing market are misdirected.

…the focus on subprimes ignores the widely available industry facts (reported by the Mortgage Bankers Association) that 51% of all foreclosed homes had prime loans, not subprime, and that the foreclosure rate for prime loans grew by 488% compared to a growth rate of 200% for subprime foreclosures.

…although only 12% of homes had negative equity, they comprised 47% of all foreclosures.

Yow.

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May Reporting Roundup: You Have Missed the Bottom (or not)

By The Tim on June 5th, 2009 at 7:58 AM · 116 Comments

It’s time once again to check in with our local press to see who simply rehashed the NWMLS press release and who did some actual journalism.

First up, the NWMLS press release that accompanied yesterday’s numbers: Inventory shrinking, sales rising, prices stabilizing in some Northwest MLS areas

Waiting longer to buy a home is not likely to pay off, according to Northwest Multiple Listing Service director Kathy Estey after reviewing reports summarizing May activity. Estey pointed to shrinking inventory (about 20 percent fewer listings than a year ago), double-digit increases in the number of pending sales (up 17.7 percent from a year ago), solid open house activity, and signs of stabilizing prices (eight of the 19 counties in the report show price gains since January) as indicators of an improving market.

Estey, the managing broker at the Bellevue Downtown office of John L. Scott Real Estate, said affordable homes inventory is down to the levels of a normal market and reaching for a sellers’ market. “Multiple offers are common in the under $400,000 range when the home is priced well, shows nicely and is marketed professionally,” she remarked. “Buyers who are waiting for prices to come down more have missed the bottom,” Estey believes.

“What we’re currently seeing is real estate’s version of Back to the Future,” said J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. He believes the combination of historically low interest rates, adjusted lower prices, and the $8,000 tax credit has created advantageous conditions for buyers that haven’t been seen in decades. He noted sales in the four-county area continue to see double digit increases.

You heard it here first, folks. You have missed the bottom. Again.

NWMLS Bottom-Calling - Seattle

The release also makes mention of an “explanatory note” that is not included online. According to Aubrey Cohen’s article, the note “mention[s] the change in the definition of a pending sale but blam[es] short sales and foreclosures for the “widening gap” between pending sales in one month and closed sales in the next.”

I can’t help but think that the ever-increasing disparity between the NWMLS’ much-touted “pending sales” and the number of actual closed sales is the kind of thing they would much rather not have explained. But with the Times and the P-I both finally making a big deal about this issue (which we have been following here since August), it looks like the NWMLS couldn’t ignore it any longer.

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News Roundup: Time to Rent, Tax Credits, Indices…

By The Tim on May 28th, 2009 at 8:07 AM · 27 Comments

Here are a few relevant news stories that have popped into my inbox in the last few days:

The plan referred to in the second story above would be the irresponsible, counter-productive one we discussed here last month. Frankly, I hope the IRS figures out a way to prevent people from pre-acquiring the tax credit, but realistically I suspect the plan will move forward.

Nobody can accuse real estate professionals (or, more accurately, their lobbying groups) of letting the bubble deflate without a fight, I suppose.

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April Reporting Roundup: Pending, Pending, PENDING!

By The Tim on May 6th, 2009 at 10:40 AM · 32 Comments

Time for our monthly check on the local papers (or digital former papers, as the case may be) to see how creatively this month’s NWMLS press release is rehashed.

First up, here’s the source material: the NWMLS press release that accompanied yesterday’s numbers: Pending sales in Western Washington rise with improved affordability, buyer incentives

Northwest Multiple Listing Service members reported pending sales for April surged 11.4 percent compared to twelve months ago – and rose 21.3 percent from March.

Brokers reported 6,918 pending sales during April across the 19 counties that make up the Northwest MLS market area. That’s up from the year-ago total of 6,208, and the March figure of 5,701 pending sales (offers made and accepted, but not yet closed).

For the four-county Puget Sound area (King, Kitsap, Pierce and Snohomish), brokers notched 5,372 pending sales, the highest total since August 2007 and a jump of 26 percent from March.

Lower prices, record low mortgage interest rates, improving consumer confidence, the $8,000 first-time buyer tax credit and other incentives for buyers are credited with spurring activity.

Another MLS director reported a “terrific increase” in first-time buyer activity in Seattle’s close-in neighborhoods, calling it the best it’s been in almost two years.

It’s all about the “pendings” this month. Forget the fact that recent trends show over a third of “pendings” never seem to actually become a closed sale. If we just repeat the phrase “pendings were up” enough times, the housing bubble will return, and we’ll all be rich!

So, will the local press ignore the growing story of pendings that never materialize in the closed sales statistics, or will they actually branch out and do more than repeat the positive spin fed to them in the NWMLS press release? Read on to find out…

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