Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'DeSilver'

News Roundup: Local Banks on the Brink

By The Tim on March 30th, 2009 at 1:00 PM · 6 Comments

The last few days have seen a handful of articles in the local press on the subject of the strength (or lack thereof, as it turns out) of local banks. Here’s a brief summary.

First-up is a relatively in-depth look at the status of dozens of banks based in Washington State: Washington’s banks under stress

…several of Washington’s community banks also are clearly straining under the weight of the crisis, a Seattle Times analysis shows.

At least a dozen of the 52 Washington-based banks examined are carrying heavy loads of past-due loans, defaults and foreclosed properties relative to their financial resources. Many of these banks have set aside relatively little cash to cover problem loans, the analysis shows.

And even the relatively healthy banks are under more pressure than they were a year ago.

…at most community banks, residential mortgages were a relatively small part of their business. Instead, their troubles are tied directly to their heavy dependence on real-estate loans — mainly loans to local builders and developers.

“Many community banks found that (construction and development loans) was an area in which they could compete effectively against the big banks,” Frontier’s Fahey said.

At Frontier Bank, for example, construction and development loans made up 44.5 percent of all assets at year’s end. City Bank had 53.3 percent of its assets in such loans, and at Seattle Bank (until recently Seattle Savings Bank), they constituted a full 54.2 percent of total assets.

Such loans looked safe and generated big profits during the housing boom. But since the housing market began to crater in late 2007, defaults on such loans have soared industrywide.

We know that it will likely take between two and eight years to work through King County’s housing oversupply. In the mean time, small builders—and by extension the local banks that loaned them money—are going to be experiencing some tough times.

Next up, the Olympian brings news of some even more serious news for Lacey-based Venture Bank: Venture Bank faces financial deadline

Federal regulators have ordered Venture Bank to raise more capital or find a buyer by next month because of concerns about its financial health.

In a letter dated Feb. 13 but disclosed on the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s Web site Friday, the FDIC notified the bank that it has 60 days to raise more money, find a buyer or find a merger partner. The 60-day period ends April 14.

Meanwhile, Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle reported a loss of $241 million in the fourth quarter 2008: Federal Home Loan Bank of Seattle reports losses

And finally, the Seattle Times front page story today focuses in on the impact of the job losses at WaMu’s former downtown headquarters: Layoff aftershocks hit WaMu neighborhood

So is there any good economic news out there for Seattle and Washington State? Well, not really on the banking front, but Amazon is still pretty profitable, and hey, at least we’re not Cleveland, right?

(Drew DeSilver, Seattle Times, 03.29.2009)
(Rolf Boone, The Olympian, 03.29.2009)
(Seattle Times, 03.30.2009)
(Marc Ramirez, Seattle Times, 03.30.2009)

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Local Unemployment Up Again

By The Tim on September 17th, 2008 at 11:39 AM · 35 Comments

The local unemployment rate continues to rise sharply, according to the August data that was just released.

As economic thunderstorms lash Wall Street and soak most of the rest of the country, Seattle and Washington state have managed to stay fairly dry. But beware: The skies are darkening quickly.

Unemployment in Washington state took a big jump last month, more evidence that the local economy is sliding toward recession. And though inflation abated a bit, prices for food, fuel and shelter are still considerably higher than a year ago.

The statewide jobless rate hit 6 percent in August, after adjusting for seasonal variations, versus a revised 5.6 percent in July, the state Employment Security Department reported Tuesday. That was just below the national rate of 6.1 percent.

The last time the state jobless rate was this high was October 2004, when the state was coming out of its last economic downturn. Now, however, unemployment is rising rapidly: As recently as February, the jobless rate stood at just 4.5 percent.

Unemployment also rose sharply in the Seattle metro area, to 4.8 percent from 4.3 percent in July.

Here’s a long-term chart of Seattle-area (King/Sno) unemployment going back to 1990, to provide some context for the latest report:

King / Snohomish Unemployment Rate
Click to enlarge

Unemployment is still relatively low, but the rate is definitely climbing quickly. From December 2000 to March 2002, local unemployment shot up 2.5 points. That’s an average rate of 0.17 points per month. This time around, the rate has gone up 1.4 points so far in the last four months, for an average increase of 0.35 points per month.

In other words, unemployment is rising at twice the rate it did leading into Seattle’s last recession. If this rate of increase keeps up, we’ll hit 7% local unemployment by March.

We’re only four months into the current spike, so I wouldn’t read too much into this data, but it’s certainly not very reassuring.

Source: Workforce Explorer

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State Economy Continues to Slow

By The Tim on April 16th, 2008 at 2:34 PM · 9 Comments

According to the latest data, it looks like the state economy is slowly catching up to the unwinding national economy.

More than 3,000 jobs were lost in Washington last month, pushing the unemployment rate to 4.9 percent, up from a near record low of 4.5 percent in February, the Employment Security Department said Tuesday.

The change is statistically significant, because it lies outside of the margin of error, the state’s chief economist, Evelina Tainer, said.

Half of the jobs lost, or about 1,500, were in the Seattle region, she said. That makes sense because the Seattle region accounts for about half of the jobs in Washington.

The leisure and hospitality sector lost 1,200 jobs. Transportation, warehousing and utilities jobs declined by 700, and construction lost 500.

“We were surprised at the strength of construction in most of 2007,” Tainer said. “We are now starting to see a consistent drop.”

I don’t think that a consistent drop in construction employment should come as a surprise to anyone.

Here’s some additional commentary from the Times’ story:

…nonfarm employers shed 3,200 payroll jobs in March, the first monthly decline since September 2007; most economic sectors posted declines. And the 3,500-job gain for February that was reported last month was revised down to a more modest 1,300-job increase.

All in all, the March jobs report showed Washington’s jobs engine downshifting into first gear. But Employment Security economist Evelina Tainer said she didn’t think the state was necessarily heading into reverse.

“I think we’re going to see a few months where things are very sluggish, but I’m still not convinced we’re due for a recession in the state,” Tainer said.

Let’s not forget that official state policy appears to be “close your eyes, plug your ears, and wish your problems away,” as laid out from the top by Christine Gregoire.

(Andrea James, Seattle P-I, 04.15.2008)
(Drew DeSilver, Seattle Times, 04.15.2008)

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January Reporting Roundup

By The Tim on February 7th, 2008 at 11:35 AM · 27 Comments

It’s time for another reporting roundup. Let’s see what the local newspapers have to say about January’s not-so-positive numbers from the NWMLS. Will they claim that the market “bottoming out” and about to jump into full recovery mode? Or maybe they have finally come to accept the fact that Seattle will not avoid the downturn, which is really just getting started.

Read on to find out…
[Read more →]

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WaMu: Slump Not Getting Better Soon

By The Tim on October 18th, 2007 at 7:39 AM · 37 Comments

Golly, this housing slump sure isn’t much fun (for never-ending appreciation-believers and real estate agents), is it? But hey, at least it’s almost over, right? Wait, what’s that you say? It’s not going to get better soon? Pfft. You’re just some doom-and-gloom blogger, why should we listen to you?

Except, that outlook isn’t coming from the bloggers. It’s coming from our very own Washington Mutual:

Almost the only good news for WaMu shareholders Wednesday was that the company’s bad news wasn’t quite as bad as outlined earlier this month.

More borrowers are falling behind on their payments, foreclosures are rising, home prices are down in much of the country, and the mortgage markets that seized up earlier this summer still are closed to nearly all but the safest loans.

And none of it, WaMu executives say, is likely to get better any time soon.

“This is perhaps the most challenging cycle for housing that we’ve seen in many decades,” WaMu Chief Executive Kerry Killinger said in an interview. He and other WaMu executives said they don’t see any improvement in the near term.

You know what though? If you want to turn a blind eye to reality and believe that the turning of the seasons will wave a magic wand over the housing market and make it all better come spring, you go ahead and believe that. Just try not to read the news or spend any time researching actual facts.

Because it’s easier to believe in what you wish to be true when you don’t bother looking up the facts.

But hey everybody, get out there and buy a home, because there’s never been a better time to buy!

King County Affordability

(Drew DeSilver, Seattle Times, 10.18.2007)

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Subtle Headline / Photo Combo

By The Tim on September 21st, 2007 at 8:02 AM · 14 Comments

From above the fold on today’s Seattle Times front page:

Flush Canadians
Click to view pdf

How soon do you suppose we can expect an article explicitly making the claim that is subtly implied by this headline / photo combo? Let’s play “predict the headline.” Here’s my guess: Soaring Loonie Strengthens Seattle Real Estate. Of course, the real story will be (is) the declining dollar and the sagging market. But hey, the Times has never let reality get in the way of an uplifting puff piece before. Why start now?

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