Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'Media'

Q13: Now is a Once in a Lifetime Buying Experience

By The Tim on March 26th, 2009 at 12:44 PM · 73 Comments

I filmed a brief interview for Q13 News a few weeks ago. Below is the resulting story they’re running today. If you’re a new reader that saw me on TV, welcome. Please take a few minutes to read our about page to learn more about this site.

Not too surprisingly, they put a pretty positive spin on the whole thing. The word they were getting from all the real estate “professionals” that they spoke with was essentially “buy now, look how low rates are!”

I didn’t say that now was a bad time to buy, because it isn’t. However, I also didn’t say that everyone should just jump in now and buy buy buy. Prices are still falling in Seattle, and will likely continue to fall for the next 6-12 months (at least). If getting the lowest price is important to you, now is probably a good time to take a “wait and see” approach.

I also gave the reporter the following examples of the monthly payment math based on low interest rates vs. falling home prices. The payment below refers to the total monthly payment of PITI (Principal, Interest, Tax and Insurance).

  • $400,000 home, $40,000 down, 5% interest: $2,366 payment
  • $400,000 home, $40,000 down, 4% interest: $2,152 payment
  • $360,000 home (10% price drop), $40,000 down, 5% interest: $2,113 payment
  • $360,000 home (10% price drop), $40,000 down, 6% interest: $2,314 payment (still lower than the first scenario)

In short, jumping into the home buying decision primarily because of low interest rates does not make any sense. Refer again to my five self-examination questions:

  • Do you like the home well enough to stay there for at least 5-10 years?
  • Do you feel that the home is priced fairly?
  • Can you afford it using a conventional 30-year fixed-rate loan?
  • Do you have a minimum 3-month emergency fund that is not part of your down payment?
  • Would you be able to handle it both financially and emotionally if the value of your home dropped considerably after purchase?

If the answers to all of these are yes, then maybe now is the time to buy for you. Note that interest rates only factor in to one of the above questions.

Addendum: Jillayne makes an excellent point in the comments below:

I’d like to lobby hard to add one more thing to Tim’s list: What’s your plan B if you decide that you need to sell the home (for a million different reasons) but cannot sell.

Can you RENT it out for enough to cover the payment so you can move someplace else?

Having a plan B helps a person sleep at night but maybe I’m just too fiscally conservative.

I don’t think that’s too conservative at all. You should definitely have a “Plan B.” Again, keep in mind that my five questions are a minimum. Ideally, my personal preference is to plan on stay ten years or more, have 6-12 months of cash reserves, and even be able to afford the house on a 15-year mortgage.

→ 73 CommentsCategories: Media
Tags: , ,

Seattle Bubble on Canadian Real Estate TV

By The Tim on October 27th, 2008 at 9:50 PM · 4 Comments

Seattle Bubble and I were recently featured on the Canadian network Real Investments Television.  I am unable to embed the video, but you can view the segment here.

Note that I do not personally consider myself to be a “real estate guru,” as the TV folks seem to have become fond of calling me (though I am flattered).  While this program got some minor points of fact incorrect, the piece as a whole is good, and I feel it did a good job of accurately reflecting my views on today’s housing market in Seattle.  I’d like to extend my thanks to Jamie Ross for inviting me to be on the program.

The crew also interviewed Jillayne Schlicke of Rain City Guide fame, as well as Mack McCoy from SREP.  Apparently those segments will be aired at a later date.  When they do air, I believe you should be able to find them at this link.

→ 4 CommentsCategories: Media
Tags: , , ,

Evening Magazine on Tim Ellis & Seattle Bubble

By The Tim on April 30th, 2008 at 8:03 PM · 27 Comments

Are you a first-time reader that saw me (Tim Ellis) on KING 5 Evening Magazine this evening? If so, welcome to Seattle Bubble.

First let me say that while I am flattered that John Curley and Jim Dever referred to me as a “real estate guru,” that is not a title that I have ever or would ever give myself. As I said in the segment, “I’m just a guy doing all this research, and putting it out there for you to see as well.” I hope that you find this resource to be of use.

Seattle Bubble is the Seattle area’s top resource for news, analysis, commentary, and community discussion on the local real estate market. We focus on productive discussion, improving understanding, and dispelling myths.

Please take a moment to look around the site. Drop by the About Page for a brief summary of what we do.

Here are some recent stories that summarize what’s going on in today’s real estate market around Seattle:

For anyone that is interested but didn’t catch Evening Magazine tonight, you can view the video on the KING 5 website, or right here (if you don’t mind YouTube’s lousy quality).

Update: Sweet, you can view a much higher-quality version on YouTube itself (but I can’t embed it).

→ 27 CommentsCategories: Media
Tags: , ,

Seattle Bubble Speaks out Against Bailouts on NPR

By The Tim on April 9th, 2008 at 9:21 AM · 79 Comments

Stop the Mortgage Bailout, Patrick.net, and Seattle Bubble were featured this morning in a segment called Opposition to Proposed Homeowner Bailout Growing on NPR about the various government bailout plans.

You can listen to the full three-minute segment on NPR’s website. Here’s a little clip of my appearance:

The house Mr. Kaste and I were standing in front of, which he says “may be the last gasp of Seattle’s bubble” is 145 NW 76th St, 98117, which I mentioned on the Audacious Flips and Renovations thread in the forums. Bought for $315k in 2005, now asking $800k.

The last gasp of Seattle's housing bubble

At the end of the segment he used a quote where I talked about housing braggarts getting what’s coming to them. He was definitely fishing for a comment like that during the entire interview, so I’m not surprised that it ended up on the air. However, taken alone, it sounds like I’m cheering for people’s financial destruction, which is not the case.

Yes, I admit that I’ve got some schadenfreude with respect to one specific set of people: blowhards that simply would not shut up about their home’s ever-rising “value” during the bubble years (such as…). But do I take pleasure in seeing anyone foreclosed on or losing their job due to recession? Of course not.

All in all, I think it was a good segment. The UW professor quoted in the piece does make a good point that more people than just bubble-buyers are going to suffer as this unwinds. However, I agree with Sniglet’s comment in the forums that a bailout “will prevent the economy from properly re-balancing itself and clearing out mal-investments.” Recessions suck, but sometimes they are necessary to get the economy back to a solid foundation. I made this point in my interview with Mr. Caste, but obviously that clip didn’t make the final cut.

The UW professor said that “people depend on their home equity,” which is certainly true, but should they? This needs to be allowed to play out naturally so we can get back to a rational, sound economy.

→ 79 CommentsCategories: Media
Tags: , , , ,

Welcome KING 5 Viewers!

By The Tim on March 25th, 2008 at 10:19 PM · 11 Comments

If you’re viewing this blog for the first time today because you saw me (Tim Ellis) on KING 5 News tonight, I’d like to take a moment to welcome you. Seattle Bubble is the Seattle area’s #1 resource for news, analysis, commentary, and community discussion on the local real estate market. This community site is focused on productive discussion of the local housing market, so that everyone involved can work toward a goal of improving understanding and dispelling myths.

Please take a moment to look around the site. Drop by the About Page for a brief summary of what we do.

Here are some recent stories that may interest you if you want to know what’s going on in today’s real estate market around Seattle:

If you’re looking for more content that gets to the heart of Seattle’s real estate market, I recommend you take a look at the following posts:

For those of you that aren’t new, and didn’t catch KING 5 news tonight, I will update this post later with the video clip. For now you can view the video on the KING 5 website here. Check back later tonight or tomorrow morning for an embedded video on this post.

Update: Here’s the video that I uploaded to YouTube:

Update 2: Neat, I found out that you can view a noticeably higher-quality version of the YouTube video by going to this link. Unfortunately I can’t seem to embed this version without it stretching it vertically. Oh well.

→ 11 CommentsCategories: Media
Tags: , , ,

Welcome 710 KIRO Listeners

By The Tim on March 6th, 2008 at 12:24 PM · 29 Comments

If you’re viewing Seattle Bubble for the first time today because you heard me, Tim Ellis, on the Dave Ross show (with sit-in David Goldstein) on 710 KIRO, I’d like to welcome you. Be sure to check out the about page to get a feeling for the purpose of this blog. If you’re interested in more of what we talk about here, I recommend reading some of the links on the Important Posts page. Feel free to jump into the discussion on the posts here on the blog and also in the forum. If you have any comments, threats, insults, etc. for me, you can contact me directly.

For regular readers who did not catch my segment on the radio this morning, here it is. FYI, although I was on for the whole hour, the actual length of the segment is only about 33 minutes after removing the news breaks and commercials.

For a limited time, you can also grab an mp3 of the segment directly from 710 KIRO.

I felt a lot better about this appearance than the last time I was on the Dave Ross show. Probably because I was the primary guest for the entire hour, so I had a lot more time to make my points. There are of course still some things I would have liked to get in but was unable to, such as addressing the “they’re not building any more real estate” arguments that some of the callers brought up, but on the whole, I think I presented the facts well.

→ 29 CommentsCategories: Media
Tags: , ,