Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'recession'

Job Loss Crash Comparison Update / Stimulus Rant

By The Tim on November 4th, 2009 at 8:23 AM · 110 Comments

A reader wrote in requesting an update to this February post, in which I criticized Nancy Pelosi’s misleading chart of job losses.

Here’s an update to the post-WWII job loss chart, courtesy of Calculated Risk, in which I’ve added a mark so you can see where the “stimulus” was passed.

Percent Job Losses in Post-WWII Recessions

Wow, good thing we changed direction to the tune of $787 billion*, huh?

*(Actual cost: much, much more)

If there is any doubt about who the stimulus was really directed at saving, just take a look at an update to the stock market crash comparison:

Dow Jones Crashes: 1929, 1973, 1987, 2001, & 2007

Woo, go Wall Street!

Finally, speaking of bailouts for Wall Street and the banks: Congress Poised to Keep Homebuyers’ Tax Credit

The Senate and House are poised to agree on a compromise measure to extend unemployment benefits that also would expand a popular $8,000 tax credit for homebuyers, despite a recent government report on extensive mistakes and suspected fraud in the program.

The Senate might pass its version as early as Wednesday, and aides to Congressional leaders say the House could accept it this week, sending the bill to President Obama to sign into law. After weeks of partisan delay in the Senate, Democrats are eager to show progress before Friday, when the October jobless report is again expected to show high unemployment.

Super! So while people continue to lose their jobs, and absolutely zero of the underlying problems in the economy have been fixed, let’s pour another ten or twenty billion dollars into the housing market to try to keep prices propped up (i.e. – keep homes as unaffordable as possible) a little longer so our buddies in the big banks that got us into this mess can avoid taking losses.

Sounds like a plan to me!

→ 110 CommentsCategories: Opinion · Statistics
Tags: , , ,

NPR: Searching for the "New Normal" in the NW Housing Market

By The Tim on August 19th, 2009 at 6:15 AM · 44 Comments

I did a phone interview a few weeks ago with Austin Jenkins, an NPR correspondent down in Olympia, about where the local housing market and economy are heading. Here is the resulting story: The New Normal: What Will The NW Housing Market Look Like?

The Northwest economy is on the verge of recovery and with it — transformation.

Economists expect the recession to end in the next year, but not without some long-term changes.

This week we’re looking at lasting alterations to the region’s economic landscape. Nowhere is that more apparent than in the real estate market.

That used to be the one investment middle income families in the Northwest could rely on. So what does the future hold for real estate?

Olympia Correspondent Austin Jenkins looks for answers in the first part of our series “The New Normal.”

Will we ever see home prices inflate at a double-digit pace year-over-year?

Real estate blogger Tim Ellis, for one, hopes the answer is no.

Tim Ellis: “To me it’s sad that so much of our local economy was based on people selling other people houses for twenty percent more than they sold last year.”

Ellis is the man behind the popular blog SeattleBubble.com . He hopes this recession serves as a course correction for the Northwest economy. He yearns for back-to-basics economic engines like Boeing airplanes and Microsoft software.

Tim Ellis: “As opposed to people whipping themselves into a frenzy over how they’re going to get rich on their house.”

Ellis need not worry about a return of the frenzy says Tom Potiowsky, economist for the state of Oregon.

Tom Potiowsky: “It just naturally is going to be a much slower growing market.”

Reset: How This Crisis Can Restore Our Values and Renew AmericaI like the forward-looking angle he took in this piece, but I don’t necessarily agree with Austin’s conclusion that “buying a home will still be a good investment.” Buy a home because you want a place to live to call your own, not as some sort of vehicle to build wealth. The only way a house is an investment is when you purchase a cash-flow-positive rental. But I digress.

I think Austin definitely touched on some interesting topics in his piece. In the time since I spoke with Austin, I picked up a little book called Reset: How This Crisis Can Restore Our Values and Renew America, which touches on some of the same topics, and as an added bonus turns the stars and stripes into a bar chart on the cover.

Despite it being only 70-some pages long, I haven’t made the time to sit down and finish reading Reset yet, but so far I’m appreciating the outlook presented within. It feels similar to the topic we touched on back in February when we discussed the “great reset.”

Looking toward the future with an optimistic perspective on how we can make our way back to a productive society that is not addicted to debt is a subject I hope to visit more frequently in the coming months.

→ 44 CommentsCategories: News
Tags: , , , , ,

Poll: NBER will declare the current recession to have ended sometime in 2009.

By The Tim on June 14th, 2009 at 12:05 AM · 20 Comments

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

NBER will declare the current recession to have ended sometime in 2009.

  • Likely. (35%, 40 Votes)
  • Unlikely. (65%, 75 Votes)

Total Voters: 115


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 06.20.2009.

→ 20 CommentsCategories: Polls
Tags: , , , ,

The Crisis of Credit Visualized

By The Tim on February 28th, 2009 at 2:25 PM · 28 Comments

Great visualization of the mess we’re in.

→ 28 CommentsCategories: Media
Tags: , , ,

Crash Comparisons: Job Losses & Dow Jones

By The Tim on February 11th, 2009 at 6:00 AM · 55 Comments

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi recently posted an alarming chart of job losses that has been making the rounds.

Job Losses in Recessions

What jumps out to me when I look at her chart is the fact that the y-axis shows raw number of jobs rather than a percentage loss, and therefore fails to account for the increased size of the job pool from one recession to the next. To give you an idea of how misleading this can be, just check out a chart comparing the current Dow Jones crash to the Great Depression, but in raw points rather than as a percentage:

Dow Jones Crashes

A reader requested that I post a graph similar to the Dow Jones percentage decline crash chart I have published on here a few times, but showing job losses as a percentage loss from the peak. Coincidentally, Calculated Risk posted that exact chart a few days ago. Here it is:

Job Losses in Post-WWII Recessions

The current rate of job losses is bad, but it doesn’t look quite as alarming when you compare it in a scaled chart.

While we’re at it, here’s an updated edition of the Dow Jones crash chart:

Dow Jones Crashes

→ 55 CommentsCategories: Statistics
Tags: , , , , ,

Declines in Home Prices & Consumer Spending are GOOD THINGS

By The Tim on February 4th, 2009 at 4:56 PM · 83 Comments

I read a great post today over at Behavior Gap (thanks to an email from J.D. @ Get Rich Slowly) that is definitely worth sharing:

The Great Reset

Behavior Gap: The Great Reset

A recent New York Times headline read:

“Consumers Increase Savings While Spending Less”

That sounds like a GOOD thing doesn’t it?

It used to be that savings and thrift were basic, core, American values. Check out Tom Brokaw’s the Greatest Generation if you can’t remember a time when Americans valued thrift and savings. The media is so focused on “reviving” the economy that it is now seen as a negative sign when saving increases and spending declines. I know the economy as we have known it over the last 10-20 years depended on consumer spending, but the problem was THAT WAS MONEY WE DID NOT HAVE!

Part of the problem is that we are still viewing this as a recession. Hopefully this is not a recession. Hopefully this is the GREAT RESET.

The word recession implies that it is a temporary decline and that things will return to “normal.” If we define normal as the last 10-20 years, “reviving” that version of the economy would be the definition of insanity (doing the same thing and expecting a different result). That version of of the economy was not REAL. That version was on the wicked, performance-enhancing drug LEVERAGE. That version was not sustainable.

Now in real life this GREAT RESET is a very painful process, but to ignore the reality won’t help. We can’t go back to the levered up version because it is not REAL. As Thomas Friedman said recently, “…there is no easy escape here, except taking our medicine, getting our fundamentals right again and working our way out of this, brick by brick…”

Carl hits the nail on the head.

Over the last few decades, we have constructed a sham economy that was not sustainable.

When the pyramid scheme failed (as all such schemes are destined to do eventually), rather than the healthy response of “whoops that was stupid, now let’s rebuild a sustainable, sound economy,” we’re hearing nonsense like “we need to prop up housing prices” and “we need to spur more consumer spending.”

Let’s put a stop to the delusion that things can just magically go back to the way they were when everybody (individuals and corporations alike) was hopped up on leverage. It’s not going to happen, nor should it.

Falling home prices and consumer spending are the necessary medicine that must be taken to return to a fundamentally sound and sustainable economy.

→ 83 CommentsCategories: Opinion
Tags: , ,