Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'rent'

“Throwing Away Money”

By The Tim on June 9th, 2009 at 10:47 AM · 127 Comments

One of the reasons we would often hear people use to justify overspending on a home during the bubble was that they wanted to stop “throwing away money” on rent.

I would hope that by now most people have realized how ridiculous that concept is, but I thought it might help dispel the notion if we consider a pair of hypothetical (but completely plausible) scenarios.

Couple A is renting a 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath townhouse for $1,000 a month in Ballard. Their $1,000 pays for not only the roof over their heads, but the water/sewer/trash, any necessary maintenance, and access to shared facilities such as a pool, hot tub, and workout room.

Over the past three years Couple A have spent around $35,000 on shelter. If they decide they want to move, it’s as easy as waiting until the lease is up and collecting their security deposit.

Couple B decided in 2006 that they were tired of “throwing away money on rent.” They didn’t have a down payment, but that of course didn’t stop them from qualifying for a $400,000 loan on an adorable 2-bedroom, 1.5-bath Ballard craftsman. With an interest rate of 5.7%, their (PITI) payments are around $3,000. Of course, this doesn’t include any services or maintenance.

Over the past three years Couple B have spent around $67,000 on mortgage interest alone, and their home is now valued at around $340,000—15% less than they paid. If they decide they want to move they have three options: Come up with about $40,000 in cash to cover the difference between their mortgage and the house’s value, convince the bank to accept a short sale, or walk away.

Now, which of these hypothetical couples seems more like they have been “throwing away money” to you?

→ 127 CommentsCategories: Features
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News Roundup: Time to Rent, Tax Credits, Indices…

By The Tim on May 28th, 2009 at 8:07 AM · 27 Comments

Here are a few relevant news stories that have popped into my inbox in the last few days:

The plan referred to in the second story above would be the irresponsible, counter-productive one we discussed here last month. Frankly, I hope the IRS figures out a way to prevent people from pre-acquiring the tax credit, but realistically I suspect the plan will move forward.

Nobody can accuse real estate professionals (or, more accurately, their lobbying groups) of letting the bubble deflate without a fight, I suppose.

→ 27 CommentsCategories: News
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Poll: How much of a discount have you negotiated in your rent?

By The Tim on April 26th, 2009 at 12:05 AM · 12 Comments

Please vote in this poll using the sidebar.

How much of a discount have you negotiated in your rent?

  • Not renting or haven't renewed lease in the last 6 months. (31%, 56 Votes)
  • None. (36%, 64 Votes)
  • Less than 5% (6%, 10 Votes)
  • 5% to less than 10% (12%, 21 Votes)
  • 10% to less than 15% (7%, 12 Votes)
  • 15% to less than 20% (3%, 6 Votes)
  • 20% or more (6%, 10 Votes)

Total Voters: 179


This poll will be active and displayed on the sidebar through 05.02.2009.

→ 12 CommentsCategories: Polls
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Reader Negotiates 25% Rent Discount from Equity Residential

By The Tim on April 24th, 2009 at 4:06 PM · 48 Comments

I received this rental negotiation success story from a reader via email, and thought it was worth sharing:

As a long time reader of your Seattle Bubble Blog, I knew that rents on their way down in King county. My Equity Residential owned apartment building in Redmond has experienced some huge increases in recent years, causing my rent to go up from $950 a month in 2001 to $1265 per month this year. Yesterday, I was sent a letter regarding my lease renewal. I was offered a relatively anemic rent decrease to $1209 a month, so I decided that I would haggle with them to get it lower.

I checked the Equity Residential website and found they were advertising a larger unit with 1 more bathroom for $997 a month, so I used the handy form on the website to express my interest in the unit, noting that I was a current resident and that I would like to move into this unit instead of paying more for renewing the lease on my current unit. I hoped that this method of sending a counter offer would be more effective than a verbal negotiation, and I was right. First thing this morning, I received a call from the apartment manager offering to renew me at a rate of $940 a month, a decrease of over 25%.

The nice thing for the local economy is that this gives me $325 a month extra in disposable income, which is better than any stimulus I have seen from the government so far. I thought I’d write you and let you know of my success so you could pass on my 21st century method of haggling to your readers. The market has definitely shifted back to favor the renter again.

The current rent price trend in Seattle is clear. If you’re not negotiating a lower rent when your lease comes up for renewal, you’re leaving money on the table—potentially a lot of money.

→ 48 CommentsCategories: News
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Seattle Homes Still 10-20% Overpriced Compared to Rents and Incomes

By The Tim on April 2nd, 2009 at 11:11 AM · 82 Comments

Inspired by this post from Rich Toscano down in San Diego showing that home prices there have reached historically reasonable levels when compared to rents and incomes, I thought I would put together some similar charts for Seattle to see how close we are to reasonable home prices.

Here’s the chart for home prices to per capita incomes, from January 1990 (as far as Seattle’s Case-Shiller data goes back) through January 2009:

Seattle-Area Home Price to Income Ratio

As of January, Seattle’s home price to income ratio is at levels last seen in May 2002. Not bad, but still about 8% higher than the 1990-2001 average, and 16% higher than where the ratio bottomed out during the bust that followed the early ’90s housing boom.

And here’s the chart for home prices to rents:

Seattle-Area Home Price to Rent Ratio

The home price to rent comparison has “rewound” to approximately October 2003, and is overall less in balance from a historical perspective than the price-to-income ratio. January 2009’s value came in 23% higher than the 1990-2001 average, 34% higher than the previous bottom, and even 17% higher than the June 1990 peak value.

[Update: I should add that the specific area-wide rent ratio values are somewhat arbitrary, and are only really useful to compare to their own past performance. I strongly recommend against using them as a valuation tool for any specific home or neighborhood.]

It’s worth pointing out that both rents and incomes in the Seattle area are currently on downward trends of their own, which will only serve to prolong the inevitable correction to historically sustainable ratios.

The good news is that at the present rate of correction, Seattle-area home prices will likely hit the “reasonable” range compared to local incomes and rents sometime late this year to early next year. Note that home prices will likely continue to fall even after we hit that range, (as they are currently in San Diego), but that would at least indicate that homes are no longer overpriced with respect to historical fundamentals.

→ 82 CommentsCategories: Statistics
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Rental Supply Set to Skyrocket

By The Tim on February 6th, 2009 at 8:12 AM · 54 Comments

Wasn’t it just a year ago that we were still being regaled with stories about how tight the housing supply was in the Seattle area, and how our population has been growing so fast that construction just couldn’t keep up, so of course high home prices and increasing rents are going to continue forever and ever?

It looks like reality is a little bit, shall we say… different.

More than 100 condo buildings in King, Snohomish and Pierce counties — many of them apartments originally — are becoming rentals again because the units haven’t sold well in this down market, said Greg Wendelken, vice president and regional manager for brokerage Marcus & Millichap.

That, in combination with rising unemployment, will push the regional apartment vacancy rate to about 7.7 percent, Wendelken said, up from 5.6 percent last year and 4.3 percent in 2007.

Jim Hebert, of Bellevue-based Hebert Research, forecast a smaller increase, from 4.1 percent last year to 4.8 percent this year.

Who could have guessed it

(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 02.05.2009)

→ 54 CommentsCategories: News
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