Seattle Bubble

Here are a few recent stories that have been covered elsewhere and are worth at least mentioning here.

Latest foreclosure statistics: Seattle P-I, Foreclosures in Seattle higher, but much lower than nation’s

The Seattle area had about twice as many foreclosures in May as it did a year earlier but continued to have a far lower foreclosure rate than the country as a whole, according to new reports.

King and Snohomish counties had a combined 881 trustee-sale notices and bank repossessions in May, one for every 1,219 households, according to RealtyTrac, an Irvine, Calif., company that tracks foreclosures. The area’s rate put it 148th out of 229 metro areas the company ranks.

FHA tries to ride in to the rescue housing bubble (they’re a little late for that). Coverage:

• Seattle Times, Number of FHA loans jumps locally
• Seattle P-I, FHA is waiting to give you a loan

The much-vaunted commercial real estate market is apparently showing signs of weakness as well: Seattle Times, Commercial real estate brokers worry about Seattle buildings

After climbing for years, are office lease rates in downtown Seattle getting ready to turn south?

Some commercial real-estate professionals think so.
…
More than 2 million square feet of new office space — the equivalent of 1 ½ Columbia Centers — will come on the market in greater downtown next year. Almost none of it is pre-leased.

And lastly, Christine Gregoire is taking her turn beating the dead horse that is Countrywide. Where was she when they were busily pumping the housing bubble up with all of these ridiculous loans? Not running for re-election, that’s where. Coverage:

• Consumer Smarts (P-I Blog), State wants to yank Countrywide’s license
• Seattle P-I, State accuses Countrywide of bias
• Seattle Times, State accuses Countrywide of discriminatory lending
• Rain City Guide, What do Governor Gregoire’s actions mean for local Countrywide employees and short selling homeowners?

Did I miss any recent stories that should have been included?

(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 06.13.2008)
(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 06.13.2008)
(Aubrey Cohen, Seattle P-I, 06.16.2008)
(Eric Pryne, Seattle Times, 06.26.2008)
(Phuong Cat Le, Consumer Smarts (P-I Blog), 06.25.2008)
(Phuong Cat Le, Seattle P-I, 06.26.2008)
(Susan Kelleher, Seattle Times, 06.26.2008)
(Jillayne Schlicke, Rain City Guide, 06.25.2008)

Before we begin May’s reporting roundup, let’s have a little review of the year so far.

January
Barb Lamoureux, owner and broker with Lamoureux Real Estate in Everett, said the typical slow December market is over. She’s seen signs the market is picking up, including a significant increase in open house traffic and even some multiple offers on properties. Her agents are expecting a busy spring.

February
February housing activity around western Washington signaled signs of an emerging spring market with a noticeable increase in open house traffic, reports of multiple offers and a big jump in pending sales from the previous month.

March
NWMLS director Dick Beeson believes the local market has “reached bottom – or pretty darn close.” Even though inventory continues to grow, Beeson acknowledged, “so does optimism among buyers, sellers and agents.”

April
Spring did start slowly, said Coldwell Banker Bain agent Margo Hass Klein. But she said traffic in the last couple of weeks has increased by at least 10 percent at open houses.

May
“We still haven’t had summer hit us yet as the weather remains cool, wet and cloudy. I expect both temperatures and the market to heat up as summer approaches,” commented Dick Beeson, broker/owner at Windermere/Commencement Associates in Tacoma. “Open house traffic is picking up and buyers are coming off the sidelines to make buying decisions.”

I’m starting to wonder if maybe, just maybe “open house traffic” isn’t quite the best measure of real estate market health.

Read on for the this month’s roundup with all the blind real estate agent optimism you can eat.

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Yesterday I predicted that the local reporting would focus on the paltry month-to-month median price increase, backed up by a plethora of quotes from peppy real estate agents. Today’s reporting, for the most part, does not disappoint.

I’m starting to get the impression as I read some of these articles that the reporters are just as amused by agents’ blatant denial as I am. My sarcast-o-meter is detecting a slight hint of intentional irony in the juxtaposition of facts and figures that paint an increasingly drab picture of the market with upbeat comments from local agents that continue to insist that things are getting better every day. Maybe I’m reading too much into it. You be the judge.

Click below for the usual roundup of this month’s reporting.

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I would have posted the reporting roundup on Saturday, but I was out of town for the weekend, and my only Internet access was dial-up (*shudder*). The tone of this month’s reporting isn’t too much different from last month, except that we’ve got a small dose of optimism thanks to a slight spring improvement. Of course, we’ve got still more bottom-calling as well, so that’s fun.

Also, Seattle Bubble gets yet another mention on TV.

Chris Ingalls, KING 5 News: A tale of two first-time Seattle home buyers

Real estate agents say that now is the time to buy in Seattle, especially for first-time home buyers.

But others say the latest data on home sales in the region suggests home prices could fall even more.
…
A recent report on the month of March says that home prices are stable — not dropping — and that means maybe they’ve hit the bottom.

The Northwest Multiple Listing Service, sponsored by the realty industry, says housing prices have stabilized for six months — a signal of the end for falling home prices.
…
But [potential first-time homebuyer Brendon] Duran isn’t convinced that the price drop is over.

“I think we’re content to wait and see what happens,” he said.

Analysts outside the real estate industry aren’t either.

Seattle Bubble, a real estate blog site, uses multiple listing service data to conclude the stabilization in home prices now is seasonal and that “now is not a good time to buy a home in Seattle.”

You can watch video of this report here. It would seem that Seattle Bubble is becoming a go-to source for King 5 News on the local real estate market. It’s good to see at least one news outlet getting quotes from someone other than real estate insiders. Thanks, King 5!

Click below for the rest of this month’s reporting.

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Here comes this month’s market reporting roundup. After seven months of declining/flat prices, declining year-over-year sales in 27 of the last 28 months, and 23 straight months of an ever-increasing number of homes on the market, I think we can officially declare that the Seattle-area housing market is in a slump. Of course, while the newspapers seem to have finally caught on to that fact, don’t expect most local real estate agents to admit it. Despite all the measurable data pointing to the market getting worse before it gets better, I think we can expect plenty of upbeat predictions and bottom-calling throughout this drop.

Click below to find out for yourself.

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HouseValues, a locally-based online real estate agent lead generator has been swirling the drain since the national real estate market first started slowing down last year. They were in the news again yesterday, as their CFO jumped ship.

For the second time in a year, Kirkland-based HouseValues is restructuring its executive team and laying off employees.

In a filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission on Wednesday, the online real-estate company announced its chief financial officer, R. Barry Allen, has resigned and 45 jobs are being eliminated.

Allen came to HouseValues last January during a restructuring that eliminated the chief operating officer position on as well as 60 other jobs. It also closed its Yakima call center in July, eliminating 100 jobs.

Anybody want to make wagers on how much longer HouseValues will last? I’ll be surprised if they still exist at this time next year. With the pressure of Zillow’s free service on one side, an increasingly slow market on the other, and generally poor service to their only real customers (real estate agents), I’m amazed they have lasted as long as they have.

(Elizabeth Rhodes, Seattle Times, 01.24.2008)