Seattle Bubble

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $274,582
• Mid Tier: $274,582 – $404,443
• Hi Tier: > $404,443

The tier breakpoints continued to shift upward ever so slightly in August, rising 0.3% to 0.4% while the overall index rose just 0.1%. This would seem to point to a continuing shift in the sales mix of homes away from the low end toward the high end, which would also help explain why the overall index rose only 0.1% when the low tier rose 0.5%.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through August 2009.

The low tier rose 0.5% month-to-month, while the middle tier fell 0.3%, and the high tier was virtually flat. The “rewind” situation held steady again, with low tier sitting about where it was in April 2005 and the middle and the high tiers at May 2005 levels.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through August 2009.

With a month-to-month increase, the low tier’s year-over-year picture improved the most in August. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of August – Low: -16.2%, Med: -13.6%, Hi: -14.9%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

So far I am still pretty unimpressed with this “recovery.” With nearly half a year of flatline prices in Seattle, it is still unclear whether this is the bottom, or merely an extended lull on the way to the real bottom. Personally, my money’s on the latter.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 10.27.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $273,625
• Mid Tier: $273,625 – $402,694
• Hi Tier: > $402,694

The tier breakpoints shifted slightly upward again in July despite a decline in the overall index, which would seem to indicate a continuing shift in the sales mix of homes away from the low end toward the high end.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through July 2009.

The high tier actually increased slightly from June to July, while the middle tier dropped the most. The “rewind” situation held steady for the month, with low tier sitting about where it was in April 2005 and the middle and the high tiers at May 2005 levels.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through July 2009.

With a month-to-month increase, the high tier’s year-over-year picture improved the most in July. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of July – Low: -17.4%, Med: -14.3%, Hi: -15.3%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

The best recovery hundreds of billions of government “stimulus” can buy.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 09.29.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $272,143
• Mid Tier: $272,143 – $400,584
• Hi Tier: > $400,584

The tier breakpoints continued to shift slightly upward in June, implying a shift in the sales mix of homes away from the low end toward the high end.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through June 2009.

The high tier was flat from May to June, while the low and middle tiers each increased 0.8%. The “rewind” situation switched into forward for a month, with low tier sitting about where it was in April 2005 and the middle and the high tiers at May 2005 levels.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through June 2009.

The strongest upward turn in the YOY data has been in the middle tier over the last two months. The low and high tiers seem to be more or less flat YOY. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of June – Low: -18.0%, Med: -14.4%, Hi: -16.5%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Still bobbing along the spring plateau. Does this indicate a bottom, or just a seasonal break in the downward slide to a price level that is supported by economic fundamentals? I think you can probably guess which one I’m betting on…

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 08.25.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $268,947
• Mid Tier: $268,947 – $395,294
• Hi Tier: > $395,294

Interestingly, although the overall index fell slightly, the tier breakpoints increased from April to May, which would seem to indicate a shift in the sales mix of homes away from the low end toward the high end. This matches up with what I pointed out on the 8th, that there has been a general trend since the beginning of the year of increasing sales on the Eastside (more expensive homes) and decreasing sales in South King (less expensive homes).

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through May 2009.

The low and high tiers both fell, by 0.3% and 0.7% respectively, while the middle tier increased by 0.3%. The “rewind” situation held steady for the third month in a row, with low tier rewound to March 2005 and the middle and the high tiers to May 2005.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through May 2009.

Not surprisingly given the directions of their respective indices, the YOY drop in the low and high tiers increased, while the middle tier decreased. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of May – Low: -18.4%, Med: -15.7%, Hi: -16.5%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

We’ve definitely got a spring price plateau instead of the spring price bounce we had last year.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 07.28.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $267,042
• Mid Tier: $267,042 – $392,156
• Hi Tier: > $392,156

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through April 2009.

All three tiers bumped up in April, just like last year. The low and high tiers both bumped up 0.28%, while the middle tier increased just 0.03% The low tier has rewound to March 2005, the middle and the high tiers to May 2005 (all the same as March’s data).

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through April 2009.

The low tier actually saw a slight moderation in YOY declines in April, similar to the blip we saw in the high tier in February. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of April – Low: -18.4%, Med: -16.3%, Hi: -16.4%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Whereas April 2008 resulted in a bit of a bump in the chart, April 2009 looks like more of a plateau.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 06.30.2009)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Note that the tiers are determined by sale volume. In other words, 1/3 of all sales fall into each tier. For more details on the tier methodologies, hit the full methodology pdf. Here are the current tier breakpoints:

• Low Tier: < $264810
• Mid Tier: $264810 – $387274
• Hi Tier: > $387274

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through March 2009.

All three tiers dropped again in March, with the middle tier taking the smallest hit at -1.7% and the low tier taking the largest at -2.4%. The low tier has rewound to March 2005, the middle and the high tiers to May 2005.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from January 2003 through March 2009.

The high tier reversed its trend of improvement from February, hitting a new low in March at -15.8%. The low tier fell furthest over the year yet again. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of March – Low: -18.5%, Med: -15.8%, Hi: -15.8%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

The declines in each tier seem to be tracking fairly close to each other the last couple of months.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.26.2009)