Seattle Bubble

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through July 2008.

Click to enlarge

Price drops have resumed in all three tiers. The low tier and mid tiers have rewound to May 2006 with the high tier performing slightly better, back to “just” June 2006. The high tier took the biggest hit in July, falling over two points, or 1.3% in one month.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from July 2002 through July 2008.

Click to enlarge

The low tier is still seeing the biggest drops in terms of YOY performance, falling just over 9% from July 2007. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of July - Low: -9.3%, Med: -8.2%, Hi: -7.7%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Click to enlarge

The high and mid tiers have fallen nearly the same amount, with the low tier resuming its drop after the flat spring “bounce.” The mid tier continues to track pretty closely with the aggregate for the whole Seattle-area market.

I guess spring wasn’t the bottom after all. At this rate, the low tier is likely to drop below 10% from peak as early as next month.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 09.30.2008)

Let’s check out the three price tiers for the Seattle area, as measured by Case-Shiller. Remember, Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through June 2008.

Click to enlarge

You can see that all three tiers basically flattened out through the spring. The medium and high tiers had that slight bump from March to April, but have since given back the slight gain, while the low tier has been nearly flat.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from June 2002 through June 2008.

Click to enlarge

Despite being flat for four months, the low tier continues to perform worst in terms of year-over-year price changes, coming with a nearly 9% drop from June 2007. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of June - Low: -8.8%, Med: -7.6%, Hi: -6.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Click to enlarge

It’s almost as if the low tier is waiting for the other two tiers to catch up after dropping so severely between months 8 and 9. Looks like another month or so and the mid and high tiers should be pretty close in terms of total decline from peak.

So has the low tier bottomed out, or is the flatness of March-June just the best “spring bounce” that could be mustered? We’ll find out soon enough as we crawl into the summer and fall.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 08.26.2008)

Here’s our monthly look at Seattle’s price tiers from Case-Shiller. Remember that Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Now here come the graphs. First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through May 2008.

Click to enlarge

As you can see, April’s spring bounce was essentially erased in all three tiers with May’s drop. The low tier dropped the least in May, but also gained the least in April, and therefore continues to set new lows. The gap between the low tier and the high tier is 9.0 points.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from June 2002 through May 2008.

Click to enlarge

All three tiers continued to extend their YOY declines in May. The low and mid tiers are well into record YOY decline territory, while the high tier is still somewhat short of its -6.74% YOY performance in June of 1991. Here’s where the tiers sit YOY as of May - Low: -8.2%, Med: -6.3%, Hi: -5.4%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Click to enlarge

The low tier is definitely getting hit the hardest, but the difference is not yet severe. The total decline from peak ranges from 6.6% for the high tier to 9.0% for the low tier.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 07.29.2008)

Here’s our monthly look at Seattle’s price tiers from Case-Shiller. Remember that Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Now here come the graphs. First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through April 2008.

Click to enlarge

All three tiers benefited from the little spring bounce, but the low tier saw the smallest bump, moving up just 0.1% to the high tier’s 1.0%. As a result, there is now a difference of just 8.5 points between the low tier index and the high tier index. At its peak, the low tier’s index was 15 points higher than the high tier.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from June 2002 through April 2008.

Click to enlarge

Despite the bump, all three tiers extended their YOY declines in April. Here’s where they sit - Low: -7.4%, Med: -5.1%, Hi: -3.7%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Click to enlarge

This graph really makes it easy to see how little the low end was bumped up in April. Even with the bump, the total decline from peak ranges from 6.1% for the high tier to 8.8% for the low tier.

I suspect that next month we will return to your regularly scheduled decline.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 06.24.2008)

Here’s our monthly look at Seattle’s price tiers from Case-Shiller. Remember that Case-Shiller’s “Seattle” data is based on single-family home repeat sales in King, Pierce, and Snohomish counties.

Now here come the graphs. First up is the straight graph of the index from January 2000 through March 2008.

Click to enlarge

At its peak, the low tier’s index was over 15 points higher than the high tier. As of March, the difference has shrunk to 10 points, a clear indication that homes in the low tier are so far experiencing steeper price drops than those in the high tier.

Here’s a chart of the year-over-year change in the index from June 2002 through March 2008.

Click to enlarge

The low and high tiers both nearly doubled their YOY decline from last month. Here’s where the YOY price change for the three tiers sit as of March - Low: -6.3%, Med: -4.4%, Hi: -3.2%.

Lastly, here’s a decline-from-peak graph like the one posted yesterday, but looking only at the Seattle tiers.

Click to enlarge

Declines in the high and mid tiers continued to moderate somewhat, but the month to month drop in the low tier was the largest yet, at nearly 2%. The total decline from peak ranges from 7.0% for the high tier to 8.9% for the low tier.

At this point, even if the index suddenly and unexpectedly leveled off, prices in the three tiers would be down between 7 and 8 percent year-over-year by August. If values continue dropping between 0.5% and 1.0% per month, all three tiers will hit -10% around August.

(Home Price Indices, Standard & Poor’s, 05.27.2008)