Seattle Bubble

News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Seattle Bubble - News & discussion about real estate & the housing bubble in the Seattle area.

Entries Tagged as 'video'

Elizabeth Warren: We’re Not out of the Woods

By The Tim on August 23rd, 2009 at 7:00 PM · 67 Comments

This is a few weeks old, but it’s definitely worth watching if you haven’t yet. Elizabeth Warren, chair of the Congressional Oversight Panel (which was created to oversee TARP), has some frank words about the current state of the banks:

Here are a few transcribed excerpts.

Scarborough: “Are we out of the woods when it comes to toxic assets?”
Warren: “No.”
Scarborough: “How bad is it still?”
Warren: “…by and large, the toxic assets that brought us to this point are still on the books of the banks.”

Buchanan: “Are you saying that if they mark to market, and these assets were priced at what they’re really worth now, these banks would still be under water?”
Warren: “…once the folks changed the accounting rules… that means you can carry them on your books at a higher level than the market would treat them. And now the problem is the banks say: ‘In fact, why do I want to sell them? Because if I sell them, I can’t sell them at that value, I’m gonna have to sell them down at the lower market value. That means I have to recognize the loss.’ Recognize enough losses, and some of them are going to be gone.

Buchanan: “If all these banks, or an awful lot of these great big banks are under water if you price their assets what they’re worth, you could have a second big hit here, couldn’t you?”
Warren: “You could have real trouble.”

Warren: “If the idea behind rebuilding the economy is: ‘let’s use a lot of the bad practices we’ve used over the last five years, and see if maybe we get a little bubble going…’ I have to say, much of what is wrong and needs to be fixed is not rocket science.”

The blunt truth is that the policies that have been enacted in response to this financial crisis to date are nothing more than “extend and pretend,” where we hope that the banks can just fake it until the economy somehow magically rebounds.

→ 67 CommentsCategories: News
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Simple Four-Point Plan to Fix the Economy

By The Tim on July 19th, 2009 at 2:44 PM · 31 Comments

Great video that lays out a clean and simple 4-point plan for ending the credit crisis, ending the housing crisis, and re-base our economy to a sustainable level. Just under 9 minutes.

→ 31 CommentsCategories: Media
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KING 5’s Up Front: Local Housing Downturn Not Over Yet

By The Tim on April 21st, 2009 at 1:36 PM · 23 Comments

Sunday’s Up Front on KING 5 focused on the local real estate market, and provided a relatively balanced picture. Host Allen Schauffler presented an overall picture of the current market, a look at a couple that got swept up in the bubble mania, a look at the next wave of adjustable rate resets, a warning about loan modification scammers, and an interview with George W. Johnson, Ballard’s 96-year-old real estate agent.

Here is the money quote:

Local economist Jim Hebert says those prices are going to drop even more. And that’s something people should consider now, when they make an offer.

[Hebert] “…perhaps what you do is you don’t look at today’s price, you look at the price in four to six months. And it’s going to continue to fall—for a while, it will fall. It must.”

Schauffler only interviews one real estate professional in the broadcast, mortgage broker Howard Bono, who forecasts a horizon of “three or four or five years” before the market gets back on its feet.

The overall tone of this most recent piece is a far cry from the November 2007 Up Front in which Lennox Scott, responding to a forecast of home prices dropping 19.5% in five years, made the assertion that “that’s not the projections that we’re seeing.” For the record, King County’s median home price is down 24% from its July 2007 peak, and 18% since Mr. Scott made that claim.

In stark contrast to Sunday’s balanced Up Front report is this piece from KOMO News on Saturday: Home deals: A bright spark amid economic gloom (emphasis mine)

It’s one of the few bright spots amid the economic gloom – a local real estate market that is brimming with deals and incredibly low financing.

But no one knows just how long it will last. So some people aren’t waiting any longer to make the plunge.

Coupled with the dropping prices are some jaw-dropping financing offers that are being made by some lenders. Some banks are offering rates as low as 3.875 percent.

“How crazy is that?” says real estate agent Becky Hiller. “I know, it’s incredible. Amazing – it’s just unheard of.

“I think the bottom has hit,” says [builder Mark] Huber. “Supply is going to start diminishing, and the good ones are going to go fast. This is definitely the time to buy.”

Because who knows when real estate prices will skyrocket once again.

Wow.

Props to KING 5 for a balanced and realistic story about the local housing market, and shame on KOMO 4 for running a thinly veiled advertisement for local agents and builders and calling it “news.”

Hat tip to RedmondJP for pointing out the KOMO piece over in the forums.

→ 23 CommentsCategories: Features
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Q13: Now is a Once in a Lifetime Buying Experience

By The Tim on March 26th, 2009 at 12:44 PM · 73 Comments

I filmed a brief interview for Q13 News a few weeks ago. Below is the resulting story they’re running today. If you’re a new reader that saw me on TV, welcome. Please take a few minutes to read our about page to learn more about this site.

Not too surprisingly, they put a pretty positive spin on the whole thing. The word they were getting from all the real estate “professionals” that they spoke with was essentially “buy now, look how low rates are!”

I didn’t say that now was a bad time to buy, because it isn’t. However, I also didn’t say that everyone should just jump in now and buy buy buy. Prices are still falling in Seattle, and will likely continue to fall for the next 6-12 months (at least). If getting the lowest price is important to you, now is probably a good time to take a “wait and see” approach.

I also gave the reporter the following examples of the monthly payment math based on low interest rates vs. falling home prices. The payment below refers to the total monthly payment of PITI (Principal, Interest, Tax and Insurance).

  • $400,000 home, $40,000 down, 5% interest: $2,366 payment
  • $400,000 home, $40,000 down, 4% interest: $2,152 payment
  • $360,000 home (10% price drop), $40,000 down, 5% interest: $2,113 payment
  • $360,000 home (10% price drop), $40,000 down, 6% interest: $2,314 payment (still lower than the first scenario)

In short, jumping into the home buying decision primarily because of low interest rates does not make any sense. Refer again to my five self-examination questions:

  • Do you like the home well enough to stay there for at least 5-10 years?
  • Do you feel that the home is priced fairly?
  • Can you afford it using a conventional 30-year fixed-rate loan?
  • Do you have a minimum 3-month emergency fund that is not part of your down payment?
  • Would you be able to handle it both financially and emotionally if the value of your home dropped considerably after purchase?

If the answers to all of these are yes, then maybe now is the time to buy for you. Note that interest rates only factor in to one of the above questions.

Addendum: Jillayne makes an excellent point in the comments below:

I’d like to lobby hard to add one more thing to Tim’s list: What’s your plan B if you decide that you need to sell the home (for a million different reasons) but cannot sell.

Can you RENT it out for enough to cover the payment so you can move someplace else?

Having a plan B helps a person sleep at night but maybe I’m just too fiscally conservative.

I don’t think that’s too conservative at all. You should definitely have a “Plan B.” Again, keep in mind that my five questions are a minimum. Ideally, my personal preference is to plan on stay ten years or more, have 6-12 months of cash reserves, and even be able to afford the house on a 15-year mortgage.

→ 73 CommentsCategories: Media
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The Crisis of Credit Visualized

By The Tim on February 28th, 2009 at 2:25 PM · 28 Comments

Great visualization of the mess we’re in.

→ 28 CommentsCategories: Media
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MSNBC on Super Special Seattle

By The Tim on January 29th, 2009 at 6:05 PM · 56 Comments

Thanks to reader DaveyDave for sending me this MSNBC news clip that aired today:


It’s starting to look like we may be special after all… just not the way some folks imagined.

→ 56 CommentsCategories: Media
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