Seattle OFHEO Index now dropping Q2Q

[deejayoh]

OFHEO just released their data for the first quarter of 2008. This was the last index showing positive appreciation for Seattle (and probably the least accurate given the % of Non-conforming loans in this market).

While it still shows a Y2Y increase of 2.8%, it now shows that prices fell 0.4% in the last quarter. Not really newsworthy, but notable because this is the longest running repeat sales index for the market, and it rarely reflects negative market performance: This is the first Q2Q drop in this index for Seattle since Q4 '94 (-0.3%)- and before that you had to go back to Q4 '90 (-0.8%)

The only annual downturn in this index for the Seattle MSA was in 1982.

[The Tim]

[deejayoh]

yeah, I *think* the numbers I quoted above were for the purchase only index. But you have to caveat that with the fact that this index tracks only conforming loans - which means LT $471k and no subprime. That is probably the most stable segment of the market - and it only reflects about a third of overall loan volume. It's gone up less than other metrics and will probably go down less. That is why I said it is probably the least accurate gauge of the market.