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Seattle Bubble Forum Archive • View topic - Predicting the bottom

Predicting the bottom

Anything and everything relating to Seattle-area real estate.

Moderators: synthetik, The Tim, Lake Hills Renter

Predicting the bottom

Postby Dave0 » Tue Oct 14, 2008 6:22 pm

Dave0
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Re: Predicting the bottom

Postby deejayoh » Tue Oct 14, 2008 7:26 pm

I'm flattered anyone noticed!

I think my model needs an *



:D
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Re: Predicting the bottom

Postby rose-colored-coolaid » Tue Oct 14, 2008 9:11 pm

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Re: Predicting the bottom

Postby Alan » Tue Oct 14, 2008 10:23 pm

Since we have a model that has been fairly accurate to this point we can watch to see how much it diverges over the next few months.
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Re: Predicting the bottom

Postby victorchai » Wed Oct 15, 2008 4:50 am

so whoever bought this month can get 10% profit next Oct?
:lol:
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Re: Predicting the bottom

Postby Dave0 » Wed Oct 15, 2008 10:28 am

I agree that we're in uncharted waters, so I'm skeptical to trust any one model. That's all the more reason why I was a bit surprised when this model appeared to be accurate up to this point. Obviously we'll get a better idea as more data comes out each month, but this model shows a possible light at the end of the tunnel.

Oh and victorchai, yes, but if this model holds true it will be 3%, not 10%.
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Re: Predicting the bottom

Postby Dave0 » Tue Nov 25, 2008 10:43 am

Wow, the September numbers are out and Seattle's index is 172.84, which is a lot lower than the 176.76 that this model was predicting. I wasn't expecting anything that low for another 4 months. I'll be curious to see what next month's value is, to see if this month is an exception to the trend, or is the start of a steeper than expected trend. Maybe the economic meltdown is starting to throw this model off.
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Re: Predicting the bottom

Postby mukoh » Wed Nov 26, 2008 3:40 pm

IMO, there is no real market wide bottom that can be predicted. Some areas will bottom quicker then others.
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