10,800

[Lionel]

[EastSider]

[Alan]

Inventory increased an average of 65 SHR per day last week. Amazing.

Here's the graph of Tim's inventory log:


Check out the steep rise last week.

[biliruben]

Nice! I was going to do that, but was too lazy.

Can you put the other sources on the graph?

[Alan]

I could but they don't really add any information. The second source mirrors the first one but has a nearly constant 1000 more items. The third source seems to expire and readd listings so it bounces up and down, but the up sections seems to match the first graph.

Since the second graph is so much higher, it tends to squash the first graph (the range is increased) and makes it harder to see the details in he first graph.

[Alan]

[biliruben]

Thanks. Interesting non-the-less, and a good check on whether the spike was a data anomaly.

The green line did seem to spike a few days earlier.

[mike2]

[EastSider]

It's already at 10,926!!!!

[Alan]

[Lake Hills Renter]

[The Tim]

09.11.2007 @ 10:00 PM -

This is fun. I don't expect the surging inventory to last past September though. There hasn't been a year yet that inventory hasn't started declining by October.

Maybe a fun game would be to guess the December inventory low point. Last year it was 5,423 at the end of December. The highest December yet (post-2000) has been 2002 at 6,930.

I'll go out on a bit of a limb and guess the low point this year will be 8,000 (according to the month-end NWMLS figures).

[Alan]

I'm going on record with a prediction that the winter drop happens 20-30 days later than last year. The trailing drop will make the YOY figure sky rocket. If the market, and lending industry, continues on its current course then inventory will being picking up earlier than ususal.

I'll guess that the December low will be 9250.