Waiting for 12,000

[deejayoh]

When is it gonna be?

Maybe tonight, maybe tomorrow? Looks the the big end of day "drawdown" hasn't happened for a few days, but I'd still bet we are over 12k for Kingco SFH by month's end

[Alan]

Tonight or tomorrow is a pretty good bet.

I agree we will be solidly over 12k at months end.

On a related note, when will Alan have over 500 posts?

[Alan]

Yesterday there were 45 listings added between 1600 and 2400 hours. 1600 today has 11959 listings. If we see a repeat of yesterday then we will be just over 12k.

We've already passed 2007's peak of 11790.

[Alan]

11,974

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[The Tim]

Even if it gets above 12,000 tonight (which it probably will), I bet it drops back down below that with tomorrow morning's purge-ening.

Also recall that last month's month-end purge knocked over 350 off the 3/31 total of 10,970, to end up with a NWMLS official figure of 10,592. I have doubts that the NWMLS official figure for April month-end SFH inventory will be above 12,000. I'm predicting somewhere in the 11,800-11,900 range, which would still be a 54-56% YOY increase, and an 11-12% MOM increase.

[Lake Hills Renter]

As of 04.22.2008 @ 10:00 PM
King County
SFH: 12,001
Condo: 4,098

[geon]

Oh, yeah! 12,009! Good times!!

[deejayoh]

[deejayoh]

[The Tim]

[deejayoh]

It doesn't take much to distract me I guess. I got curious and pulled some numbers.

If you run a trend line through a plot for each of the 3 data series for this month, you'll find that the market is adding somewhere between 1.8 and 2.3 new listings an hour.

So that's 43-55 new listings a day with 8 days left in the month - so it is likely that 340-440 net new listings will come on the market before 4/30

That would take us to ~12,400 or 12,500 before the "purge" based on the current reading

If we don't end the month at 12K, it will be very close. 11,900 is probably a good guess.

Historical average growth between March-April is ~7.5%. So at 11-12%, this year's is a little high, but not out of the range. Last year was 13%. It's the raw number of listings that is notable.

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[Matthew]

12, 123 and counting

[Lake Hills Renter]

The last few days has seen quite a few new for sale signs sprout up on my way to work. My 3 mile commute now has 13 signs up -- a new record. Just a few days ago there were only 6 or 7. Don't worry, I'm not resurrecting the LHR Commute Sample.