Guesses on the MLS numbers for August?

[EastSider]

[Alan]

[The Tim]

[EastSider]

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[jillayne]

Sales down 10% YOY.
Median price up 4% YOY.

[The Tim]

I am reluctant to venture a guess on changes in the median, since it appears to be affected more by the change in sales mix than in actual home values.

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[Alan]

[EastSider]

[Alan]

[EastSider]

[deejayoh]

Kingco SFH median for July was about 10.6%. Safe to say it will be less than that, but I'd bet you won't shave more than 2% off - so say 8%-ish

In terms of the chart Alan referred to, I have a better model for Case-Shiller now, which predicts M2M performance instead of Y2Y. Historical accuracy is r^2 just a shade under 80%

For June, it was pretty accurate -
____ Pred__ Actual
M2M_.53%__.65%
Y2Y__8.1%__7.9%

Corresponding August figures are .25% and 6.1% - almost a 3 point drop.

Since August is a "hot" sales month I am betting we won't see all of this change reflected in the median. C/S index is for all of King/Snoho/Pierce county SFH. The correlation between C/S and Kingco median SFH is only about 70%, mostly because C/S uses a 3 month rolling average to calculate their data so their numbers smooth out much of the volatility you see in the median

[Alan]

As I mentioned in another thread, I think that the last week of August had half the house closings that last week of July did.

I'm glad my somewhat hazy memory of DJO's chart was close.

[deejayoh]