What are the indicators signalling the end of the boom?

[synthetik]

Maybe I'm wrong about Vista, but I doubt it. I didn't read the report but maybe MS's profits are from overseas sales.

I just don't see who is going to buy all of the massive oversupply of inventory during the recession... certainly not consumers and business purchasing will slow as their profits head south.

[twistjusty]

I haven't read a response from the local housing bulls about this thread, and I'd like to. That is, I would like to know what their ideas are of signs of a falling market, if the indicators listed in the OP aren't convincing. They have to be able to read charts and graphs and know that busts and recessions happen, even in Fantasyland, right? "I can't tell that it's happened yet" is not equivalent to "It can't and it won't happen here," right?

Denial of reality and ignorance of past history and economic cycles haven't convinced me the slide isn't happening, but then I don't watch network television news.

Seeing two priced-way-too-high properties linger on the market for over 200 days in my neighborhood, and observing no fewer than twenty "for sale" shingles on my twenty-minute scoot around Mercer Island on Wednesday is akin to watching some small-to-moderate boulders take an early lead in a housing market avalanche.

[plymster]

[StevePDX]

I'd add increase in average rent to the list of factors.

[synthetik]

[Alan]

[WetCoaster]

[StevePDX]

[synthetik]

[finance]

[synthetik]

Rental rates only went up by about 3-4% in 2006 but the trend is up higher in 2007. Either way, this conversation is moot because rents will follow the trends of the other 100 markets and go down.

Someone suggested that increasing rents signaled a downturn... not really an indicator at all.

What has happened is that rents naturally go down due to increase supply. More units, more supply.

Lots of last-ditch specuvestors have bought condos to flip causing a small crunch in rentals. This will reverse but it'll take a year or so. Not even worth talking about.

[refractedthought]

Another sign to watch for: deterioration of outlying markets. Yes, the numbers in Pierce, Kitsap, Snohomish, etc. DO matter.