I disagree. And I certainly would not look at the last 3 years as a guideline because the bubble years just went up and up.
However if you look at my chart for the last 10 years (prior to 2004) for Snohomish Co. you can see the month over month slow creep up.
Even so, it must be watched over at least a 6 month period along with the YOY. I think they are both important to watch. So whether the market is going up or down, over a period of time (less than 12 months) you can still see a trend.
It's still spectulation, as no one can predict which way the trend will keep going especially with the uncertainty in the economy.
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/_qOT_WZGcHPo/S ... h+2009.PNG