Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

What I find really interesting is the slight undertone that you can blame some of the decline on the bubble blogs.

kpom, you raise a really good point. I saw the same thing in Los Angeles. Prices fell first in outlying areas like Riverside & Lancaster, so many agents that said 'prices will never fall' switched to 'prices will never fall in LA proper.' Now that they've been proven wrong, they're forced to call out very desirable areas like Pasadena and Beverly Hills and point out that prices have not dropped there.

There will inevitably be neighborhoods that fare best in a downturn (and where prices indeed may not fall at all) because neighborhoods transition and become relatively more desirable. But those improving neighborhoods are inevitably offset by those that become less desirable (think Compton, CA or remote Pierce or Snohomish Co, WA). As a buyer, you can try to identify these neighborhoods, but it's a crapshoot.

How many 'up and coming' neighborhoods have been 'up and coming' for 20 years?

I thought that quote was very interesting.

About twenty years ago, when multiple-level marketing was very popular, I thumbed through a book written by someone involved in one of the MLM schemes. One of the big themes within the MLM organization was "Don't Let Anyone Steal Your Dream" i.e. don't listen to those negative people who tell you that getting a MLM distributorship is a bad idea, but only listen to people who think that MLM is the path to riches. Commentary on some of the RE blogs is increasingly channeling that attitude.

Since most of the bubbleheads are always negative, what do you expect people to think? Articles here are never positive (everything is not always bad!) and comments are generally even more bearish than the articles. I always laugh as commenters here who constantly attack MSM members get indignant when they are called out. I do like articles from scrow, as he has been pretty balanced with real emperical data.

Bears are only right once for a short period over a long period, and don't make any money, who are people suposed to look to?

I predict that in two years anyone who is waiting for 50% declines in seattle is going to be perminantly renting and bitter.

Garth

I don't see prices falling from where they are to be negative at all. Housing was (is?) unattainable given realistic financing means, putting people in bad financial situations. This is more of a much-needed correction than anything else. We had one back in Texas some time back and it wasn't the end of the world. The end result was that people weren't resorting to stupid financing to buy a place which really isn't a bad thing.