10,000 again

[Alan]

http://seattlebubble.com/inventory/SFHnow.txt

5:20p 2/20/2008

[perfectfire]

[rudekick]

July '07 was 9,947. August '07 was 10,298.

February '07 was 6,124. If inventory stops where it is right now (10,000) for February '07 (might be reasonable given the big drop on the first day of the new month that counts for the previous month), we'd have a 63% YOY increase... That would beat last month's record of 55%. I don't know how you can really spin that in a positive way..

[rudekick]

That would also be a Seattle Bubble spreadsheet record for Jan-Feb Month to Month increase - 8.3%. So you couldn't explain it by saying it's the normal beginning of year pick up...

[rose-colored-coolaid]

So if inventory goes up another 68% between February and August, we'll have 16,800 homes on the market this summer. Or if we just see another 4000 home increase during those 6 months, it'll be closer to 14,000.

Anyone know how many more homes are usually on the market in August than February? If a 50% increase is common, then it's going to be one heck of a buyers market this summer compared with today.

[deejayoh]

Based on 2000 - 2007 data it's about a 30% jump on average from Jan to Aug/Sept.

Month/Avg/Change from Jan
J 6,207 na
F 6,209 0%
M 6,473 4%
A 6,931 12%
M 7,442 20%
J 7,728 25%
J 7,845 26%
A 7,875 27%
S 8,187 32%
O 7,939 28%
N 7,315 18%
D 5,864 -6%