Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

Shiller numbers....

Charlotte -9.22%

Portland -6.72%

Chicago -10.26%

Cleveland -16.82%

Seattle -13.42%

New York -8.51%

Dallas -13.97%

Atlanta -16.87%

Tampa -17.74%

Boston -13.63%

Denver -19.85%

Detroit -24.53%

Minneapolis -19.70%

Washington DC -18.55%

Miami -25.74%

Vegas -28.86%

Los Angeles -30.03%

San Francisco -29.43%

San Diego -31.85%

Phoenix -30.15%

home price index

I think you may be misreading it:

Down 1.2% November to December
Down 3.9% from peak
Up 0.5% year over year

By Andy Burt
Feb. 26 (Bloomberg) -- The following table shows the change
in the U.S. composite home price index from S&P/Case-Shiller.
*T
==========================================================================
Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June
2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007 2007
==========================================================================
-------------- US Composite-20 City Index -------------
Monthly % -2.15% -2.10% -1.38% -0.84% -0.68% -0.37% -0.35%
3-Mth Annualized -20.35% -15.99% -10.99% -7.27% -5.44% -3.64% -3.15%
Yearly % -9.08% -7.69% -6.05% -4.92% -4.29% -3.80% -3.38%
Index Level 184.86 188.92 192.98 195.68 197.33 198.68 199.41
-------------- US Composite-10 City Index -------------
Monthly % -2.28% -2.17% -1.38% -0.87% -0.77% -0.50% -0.45%
3-Mth Annualized -20.98% -16.32% -11.44% -8.24% -6.68% -4.81% -4.19%
Yearly % -9.82% -8.35% -6.66% -5.50% -4.86% -4.39% -3.96%
Index Level 200.55 205.23 209.78 212.71 214.58 216.25 217.33
==========================================================================

==============================================================
Current Previous 3-Mth YoY% Index
MoM% MoM% Annual% Change Level
==============================================================
US Composite-20 -2.15% -2.10% -20.35% -9.08% 184.86
--------------------------------------------------------------
Charlotte -0.59% -0.97% -9.22% 2.34% 131.90
Portland -0.64% -0.78% -6.72% 1.22% 182.47
Chicago -0.98% -0.93% -10.26% -4.55% 160.03
Cleveland -1.08% -2.28% -16.82% -6.29% 112.07
Seattle -1.21% -1.43% -13.42% 0.49% 184.88
New York -1.27% -0.60% -8.51% -5.61% 201.80
Dallas -1.32% -1.59% -13.97% -2.35% 120.77
Atlanta -1.48% -1.86% -16.87% -3.42% 129.43
Tampa -1.63% -1.42% -17.74% -13.33% 200.13
Boston -1.68% -1.15% -13.63% -3.36% 164.59
Denver -1.78% -2.00% -19.85% -4.47% 130.98
Detroit -1.84% -2.69% -24.53% -13.56% 103.30
Minneapolis -2.14% -1.98% -19.70% -7.97% 155.37
Washington DC -2.54% -1.74% -18.55% -9.43% 217.78
Miami -2.64% -2.60% -25.74% -17.50% 231.71
==============================================================
Current Previous 3-Mth YoY% Index
MoM% MoM% Annual% Change Level
==============================================================
Las Vegas -2.92% -3.23% -28.86% -15.34% 196.05
Los Angeles -3.08% -3.64% -30.03% -13.70% 233.03
San Francisco -3.20% -3.24% -29.43% -10.80% 189.23
San Diego -3.41% -3.42% -31.85% -14.96% 202.45
Phoenix -3.49% -3.12% -30.15% -15.27% 187.67
==============================================================


Nope, not misreading it.

That's annualized right?

Aldreth,

Don't know where you're getting your data but when you go right to the source (http://www2.standardandpoors.com/spf/pd ... 022603.pdf) C/S is showing YTD change of 0.5% for Seattle. I have no idea where this -13.4% is coming from.

It looks like the three month change.

It's 4th quarter performance annualized. (1-3.5%)^4 = 86.6% or, a 13.4% decline

kind of misleading given the 4th quarter is typically a slow period for housing, but hopefully this solves the mystery

Annualized. A 3.5% over three months will turn into a 14% change over a year if the rate of change remains the same (actually if it is compounded you get slightly more, but that is a decent enough estimate for this discussion).

Shiller is not claiming that rate will continue. The figure is simply annualized so you can compare apples to apples.