Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/e ... os11e.html

"It's not uncommon to see a 28-year-old tech worker in a $1 million condo," said Dean Jones, president of Realogics, a Seattle company that markets several Bellevue residential projects.

Okay, be honest...how many of you 28-year-old tech workers could afford a $1M condo? To be fair, Mr. Jones was supposedly describing foreign workers who are getting help from "families back home" but still.

I've also heard that some of these towers are offering protection against falling prices to help keep people from cancelling their contracts. Apparently the developer can count the unit as "sold" once someone has plunked down the earnest money even though they haven't necesarrily signed a contract.

I work at Microsoft, Single, and 28 years old. Last year I made close to 95K. I can honestly tell you even with my salary (which is considered "average" on the East Side), I cannot afford or want to pay half a million dollar condo. Here are my personal reasons

1) I see myself getting married, why buy a 500K 1.5 bed room condo when I know I will need more space?
2) Bellevue downtown is extremely overbuilt
3) Bellevue towntown is extremely overvalued (most properties are $400/sqfeet)
4) Night life is "average". I say average because they recently opened up Lucky Lanes which is "alright". If they could only get rid of the 40 somethings that hang out at the bar ... no offense to those that go there and in that age group

Over the weekend, I attended the Braven private sale where the show various the floor plans and gave the chance for you to sign "purchase agreements" (10K down and refundable). I must have heard "Microsoft" being mentioned at least 30 times in the 30-40 minutes I was there. Studio "start" at 400k. A one bed room / one bath range from 500K-650K. Those units won't get built till the end of 2009. I left the sale event thinking to my self, by the end of 2009 early 2010... I will be 30! (god I am getting old)... why the heck would I still want to be in a one bed room / one bath (the max I can afford).

I also overheard this conversation with an older retired couple

Retired Couple: I was thinking of a 2 bed room, 2 bath unit
Sales Agent: Well, heres what we have ... <shows the price sheet>
Retired Couple: I think its a little bit out of our price range
Sales Agent: Well, here are some in the 1 million to 1.5 million price range
Retired couple: akward look...
sales Agent: <goes on about how great the unit is>
Retired couple left 10 mins after

In old timer parlance, "a little bit out of our price range" means it's too damn expensive.

I was reading one of the Seattle magazines while waiting for the doctor the other day, and there were numerous ads for condo buildings under construction. "1 Bedrooms starting at $600k" seemed pretty typical. That is ludicrous. Absurd. Ridiculous. Pick your adjective!

As for the 28 year old tech worker in a million dollar condo, he probably bought it when he was 22 and it cost $250k.

I live in downtown Bellevue and I honestly don't care for anything there...

Can't imagine how they can fill up all those condo spaces, has anyone calculate how many new condos will be available by 2009?

It'll be very interesting to see the number:

2500 units x 1,000,000 average price = 2,500,000,000 = Armageddon.

Ok, I got some downtime before I leave:

Base on this website: http://activerain.com/blogsview/261418/ ... ondo-Round

Bellevue Tower
-535 units
-$500k to $2 million
Random guess, $750k x 535 = $401,250,000 worth of property.

European Tower
I don't see any actual progress there yet, will skip it for now.

One Main Street
-62 units
-$400k to $1 million+
Random guess, $650k x 62 = $40,300,000

The Residences at Bravern
-450 units
-$400k to $4 million
Random guess, $800k x 450 = $360,000,000

Vida Condominium
-238 units
-$300k to $800k
Random guess, $400k x 238 = $95,200,000

Washington Square (http://www.construction.com/NewsCenter/ ... 0726nw.asp)
-360 units + 22 luxury units
-all over the place $600k to multi-millions
Random guess, $900k x 380 = $342,000,000

Then there are bunch of smaller buildings, retirement homes, new apartments that are unaccounted for. But base on the above condos, we're looking at combine value of approximately $1.25 billion dollar worth of property and 1670 of new condo units.

Shit...imagine that.

What is frightening is that there are people in this area who could purchase all of those condos.

Mr. Gates is offering free housing for MS employees? Yipeee!!!

A lot of co workers I know at Microsoft are more interested in Single Family homes rather than condos. The ones that are that are interested in condos can't afford the Bellevue price tag. I am sure speculative foreign investors will eventually buy up the inventory but it might take a long time considering the current state of the real estate market (regardless whether or not real estate is local). Also I would like to point out that if you cross the bridge / highway to the other side of Bellevue downtown, prices drop 20-25%... (I mean its literally a 1 min drive) wheres the logic?

"wheres the logic?".....think "Gucci Bag".

RCC,

In my neighborhood (north of M$) I have seen immigrants (working in hi-tech) buy very expensive houses, but there is one difference from typical Americans--they have multiple extended family members living together so they are combining their income/savings in order to buy. Down the street are some Russians with two brothers (one in the MIL apt. above the separate garage) living with their parents in a $700K place, and my former neighbors from Pakistan just bought a $800K house one block away and are living with one of their parents (think some MS stock options + inheritance was involved). I'm not sure how widespread this is.

I know if my parents sold out of their holdings and moved in with my family, we could afford a much nicer place than I currently have. But then, not everybody wants to live with their extended family either!

These articles are so ridiculous. The reporter gets fed a line by the PR rep of some organization, then reports it as fact.

Last year, these condos were going to be sold to "downsizing boomers" who are just dying to live in an urban environment. Now they are going to sell them to 30 year olds despite all evidence pointing to the contrary in terms of their ability to afford the prices.

Meanwhile, the developers in downtown Seattle (where there is at least some evidence that people actually DO buy condos) are scrambling to figure out how they convert half of them to apartment buildings.