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Seattle Bubble Forum Archive • View topic - What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Anything and everything relating to Seattle-area real estate.

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What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby deejayoh » Mon Jun 16, 2008 12:47 pm

Whatever it is, here's a thread for the f@cked buyer files:

:
4125 SW 107 S
Seattle, WA 98146
Price: $674,950
Beds: 5
Baths: 3
Sq. Ft.: 3,200
$/Sq. Ft.: $211
Lot Size: 7,500 Sq. Ft.

Sales History
Date Price Appreciation
Nov 18, 1999 $415,000 --
Jan 26, 2007 $750,000 8.6%/yr

On the market today for $674,950

So, lets assume they get their price. They are looking at:
- Loss of $75,050 in principle
- Loss of $40,500 for RE fees (6%)
- Loss of $12,150 for Transfer Tax (1.8%)

For 17 months of ownership, our lucky "owners" are looking at a loss of $127,700 - or 17% on their original purchase price. For those of you doing the math at home - that's 1% a month.

Beat that one.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby Alan » Mon Jun 16, 2008 12:56 pm

I guess that explains the lack of a picture. They can't afford the electrons.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby Cougar » Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:52 pm

Looks like the owner got into personal hardship and now sale of home. Those who purchased at 05-07 prices and have to sell 08 are gonna take a beating. We can't predict life or the housing market, some of us keep trying.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby deejayoh » Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:03 pm

How many are needed before we can call it a trend? These are all in West Seattle - and I found them by clicking only about 20 listings on redfin. I am sure there are more.


.
exhibit 2: Looking at a $43.6k loss (7.8% in fees and taxes) in 23 months
exhibit 3: Looking at a $131.8k loss (principal/fees/taxes) in 25 months - or 15.5%
exhibit 4: Looking at $96.2k (principal/fees/taxes) loss in 13 months - or 28.7% loss
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby deejayoh » Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:53 pm

Wow. I gotta stop looking at these - but this one was too ugly not to share:


Image
4113 44th Ave SW
Seattle, WA 98116
Price: $998,500
Beds: 5
Baths: 4
Sq. Ft.: 3,265
$/Sq. Ft.: $306
Lot Size: 5,750 Sq. Ft.

Listing Price History
Date Price
Apr 12, 2008 $1,150,000
Apr 22, 2008 $998,500

Sales History
Date Price Appreciation
Sep 20, 1991 $163,950 --
Jul 25, 1994 $206,000 8.4%/yr
Dec 10, 2002 $429,000 9.2%/yr
Jun 06, 2007 $1,175,000 25.2%/yr

Loss on Principal: $176.5
Fees and Taxes: $77.9k
Total potential loss: $254.3k, only ~22% of purchase price in 12 months. A quarter of a million dollars, and it's been remodeled...
Looks like it was originally offered at $1.375mm based on the zillow listing. Knock another $200k off the initial "wishing price"

At first I thought they must have sub-divided the lot, but looking at the map there's no way that is the case as houses on both sides were built in the teens.

I would hate to be selling in West Seattle right now.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby WestSideBilly » Tue Jun 17, 2008 9:02 am

Is this isolated to West Seattle or is that just where you're looking?

West Seattle seemed to be one of the more sane areas when I was looking last year...
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby biliruben » Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:03 am

A few months ago it was primarily non-King and outer-periphery areas of King that were like this. I'm seeing these sorts of underwater properties for sale more and more in-city, as the bust creeps closer to the job-centers.

Edmonds, Shoreline and LFP are in full-retreat, with the panic starting to spread across the city line to West Seattle, Leschi, Broadview, Cedar Park, Lake City, Meadowbrook and even parts of Maple Leaf and Wedgewood and north Ballard. I'm even seeing weakness in Magnolia and QA, with houses sitting and being cut pretty significantly, and even a few foreclosures in the mix.

The only places really holding up okay are Ballard, Fremont, Laurelhurst, Greenlake, Bryant, View Ridge, S Wedgewood, Ravenna zone. Which of course is where I'd like to live. ;)

I can't speak to the Eastside at all. And I don't really pay attention to Cap. Hill and downtown either.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby Civil Servant » Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:27 am

I noticed some interesting goings-on w/r/t Capitol Hill listings just today. This is neither my preferred neighborhood nor my target price range, I'm just nosy and crazy for data.

943 19th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/943-19 ... ome/135847 -- Bought for $1.2M in February (!), now back on the market at $1.198M, a loss in the range of $100K when transaction fees are taken into account.

952 16th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/952-16 ... ome/135830 - Bought for $1.1M in February 2005, an alleged $1M+ put into the renovation. If true, even at the current (intial) listing price -- which exceeds comps by over $200/sf, yikes -- the owners are in the hole. (And regarding this claim about renovation cost, what's the deal? Is there honor among thieves, or should I believe something like this when I read it?)

And here are two high-end houses that have been discounted by $300K since first being listed.

900 18th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/900-18 ... ome/135700
910 19th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/910-19 ... ome/136345

None of these are as dramatic as the West Seattle situation, but I'm surprised to see this happening -- and to get the waft of urgency on the part of the current owners -- in the posh part of Capitol Hill.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby perfectfire » Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:21 pm

Isn't this thread the same as ?

Here's another one from the eastside. So far not much of an asking price drop, but still a significant one-year loss if transaction costs are factored in. It probably would've been easier and 3x as cheap to rent:



Bought on May 29, 2007 for $660,000
Now asking $650,000
Remember, if you rent it's not a home, it's a hovel.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby deejayoh » Thu Jun 19, 2008 1:42 pm

Last edited by deejayoh on Thu Jun 19, 2008 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby WestSideBilly » Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:40 pm

I don't think you did your img/url tag right. It's not a link to the listing, just the picture.
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip?

Postby EastSider » Fri Jun 27, 2008 7:47 am

Redmond Ridge home -- bought for $460K in June/2006 and is now listed for $425K
http://www.redfin.com/WA/Redmond/9112-2 ... ome/444759
Image
BTW, I hadn't noticed such significant price-drops with reasonably good starter-homes in Redmond -- so far. I guess that the best is yet to come.
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