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What's the opposite of an audacious flip?
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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 What's the opposite of an audacious flip? Whatever it is, here's a thread for the f@cked buyer files: Exhibit one: 4125 SW 107 S Seattle, WA 98146 Price: $674,950 Beds: 5 Baths: 3 Sq. Ft.: 3,200 $/Sq. Ft.: $211 Lot Size: 7,500 Sq. Ft. Sales History Date Price Appreciation Nov 18, 1999 $415,000 -- Jan 26, 2007 $750,000 8.6%/yr On the market today for $674,950 So, lets assume they get their price. They are looking at: - Loss of $75,050 in principle - Loss of $40,500 for RE fees (6%) - Loss of $12,150 for Transfer Tax (1.8%) For 17 months of ownership, our lucky "owners" are looking at a loss of $127,700 - or 17% on their original purchase price. For those of you doing the math at home - that's 1% a month. Beat that one.
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| Mon Jun 16, 2008 12:47 pm |
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Alan
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 7:08 pm
Posts: 780
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? I guess that explains the lack of a picture. They can't afford the electrons.
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| Mon Jun 16, 2008 12:56 pm |
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Cougar
Bubble Blatherer
Joined: Fri Feb 22, 2008 10:51 am
Posts: 71
Location: Redmond
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? Looks like the owner got into personal hardship and now sale of home. Those who purchased at 05-07 prices and have to sell 08 are gonna take a beating. We can't predict life or the housing market, some of us keep trying.
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| Mon Jun 16, 2008 1:52 pm |
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? How many are needed before we can call it a trend? These are all in West Seattle - and I found them by clicking only about 20 listings on redfin. I am sure there are more.  Sorry about the size. Tim took away some of the screen real estate in the last site update  click picture for larger version. exhibit 2: Looking at a $43.6k loss (7.8% in fees and taxes) in 23 months exhibit 3: Looking at a $131.8k loss (principal/fees/taxes) in 25 months - or 15.5% exhibit 4: Looking at $96.2k (principal/fees/taxes) loss in 13 months - or 28.7% loss
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| Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:03 pm |
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? Wow. I gotta stop looking at these - but this one was too ugly not to share: Exhibit 5: 4113 44th Ave SW Seattle, WA 98116 Price: $998,500 Beds: 5 Baths: 4 Sq. Ft.: 3,265 $/Sq. Ft.: $306 Lot Size: 5,750 Sq. Ft. Listing Price History Date Price Apr 12, 2008 $1,150,000 Apr 22, 2008 $998,500 Sales History Date Price Appreciation Sep 20, 1991 $163,950 -- Jul 25, 1994 $206,000 8.4%/yr Dec 10, 2002 $429,000 9.2%/yr Jun 06, 2007 $1,175,000 25.2%/yr Loss on Principal: $176.5 Fees and Taxes: $77.9k Total potential loss: $254.3k, only ~22% of purchase price in 12 months. A quarter of a million dollars, and it's been remodeled... Looks like it was originally offered at $1.375mm based on the zillow listing. Knock another $200k off the initial "wishing price" At first I thought they must have sub-divided the lot, but looking at the map there's no way that is the case as houses on both sides were built in the teens. I would hate to be selling in West Seattle right now.
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| Mon Jun 16, 2008 4:53 pm |
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WestSideBilly
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:41 pm
Posts: 550
Location: Land of entitlement
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? Is this isolated to West Seattle or is that just where you're looking?
West Seattle seemed to be one of the more sane areas when I was looking last year...
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| Tue Jun 17, 2008 9:02 am |
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biliruben
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 4:31 pm
Posts: 575
Location: Lake City
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? A few months ago it was primarily non-King and outer-periphery areas of King that were like this. I'm seeing these sorts of underwater properties for sale more and more in-city, as the bust creeps closer to the job-centers. Edmonds, Shoreline and LFP are in full-retreat, with the panic starting to spread across the city line to West Seattle, Leschi, Broadview, Cedar Park, Lake City, Meadowbrook and even parts of Maple Leaf and Wedgewood and north Ballard. I'm even seeing weakness in Magnolia and QA, with houses sitting and being cut pretty significantly, and even a few foreclosures in the mix. The only places really holding up okay are Ballard, Fremont, Laurelhurst, Greenlake, Bryant, View Ridge, S Wedgewood, Ravenna zone. Which of course is where I'd like to live.  I can't speak to the Eastside at all. And I don't really pay attention to Cap. Hill and downtown either.
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| Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:03 am |
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Civil Servant
Bubble Blatherer
Joined: Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:05 am
Posts: 87
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? I noticed some interesting goings-on w/r/t Capitol Hill listings just today. This is neither my preferred neighborhood nor my target price range, I'm just nosy and crazy for data. 943 19th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/943-19 ... ome/135847 -- Bought for $1.2M in February (!), now back on the market at $1.198M, a loss in the range of $100K when transaction fees are taken into account. 952 16th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/952-16 ... ome/135830 - Bought for $1.1M in February 2005, an alleged $1M+ put into the renovation. If true, even at the current (intial) listing price -- which exceeds comps by over $200/sf, yikes -- the owners are in the hole. (And regarding this claim about renovation cost, what's the deal? Is there honor among thieves, or should I believe something like this when I read it?) And here are two high-end houses that have been discounted by $300K since first being listed. 900 18th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/900-18 ... ome/135700 910 19th Avenue East - http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/910-19 ... ome/136345None of these are as dramatic as the West Seattle situation, but I'm surprised to see this happening -- and to get the waft of urgency on the part of the current owners -- in the posh part of Capitol Hill.
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| Tue Jun 17, 2008 11:27 am |
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perfectfire
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Sun May 20, 2007 11:40 pm
Posts: 523
Location: Bellevue
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? Isn't this thread the same as Equity Stompin' Comp Killers? Here's another one from the eastside. So far not much of an asking price drop, but still a significant one-year loss if transaction costs are factored in. It probably would've been easier and 3x as cheap to rent: 16903 SE 38th Pl Bellevue, WA 98008Bought on May 29, 2007 for $660,000 Now asking $650,000
_________________
Remember, if you rent it's not a home, it's a hovel.
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| Tue Jun 17, 2008 1:21 pm |
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deejayoh
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 26, 2007 12:14 pm
Posts: 1154
Location: Capitol Hill
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? This is my final post on West Seattle - I promise to drop it after this! I figured out how to use Redfin to pretty rapidly look at most of the neighborhoods in close proximity to Seattle and from what I can see, W Seattle is by far the hardest hit by the downturn. There are 409 SFH on the market in West Seattle. Of these: - 66 fall in to the category of what I loosely defined as a "flip" - e.g. purchased after 1/1/06 and now back on the market + date house built was prior to the date of the previous sale (so I know it was not a tear down)
- 20 of the flips are listed for less than the purchase price. Two additional listings are bank owned foreclosures with no sales price listed (33% of flips are losers)
- Average principal loss on the 20 losers with prices listed = $60k (9% of purchase) And here's the biggest loser in West Seattle (click picture for listing): Purchased Aug, 2006 for $1,100,000 REO to Bank May, 2008 for $937,921 On the Market for $684,900. Loss from peak: 38% and here's the whole list. Note that I have not cleaned these up to account for short plats (other than what was pointed out already) so I am sure there are a few inaccuracies on here. This was a straight cut and paste from a spreadsheet http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3944-S ... ome/469105http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4321-S ... ome/153710http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5418-F ... ome/471068http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5916-3 ... ome/471052http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5920-C ... s-28007667http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6562-B ... ome/152977http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6536-4 ... ome/469280http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/6517-3 ... ome/469059http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4514-S ... ome/156859http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/9833-4 ... ome/158657http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/5048-F ... ome/471500http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/10649- ... ome/158571 REO http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2771-5 ... ome/150307http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/9201-F ... ome/158561http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3820-4 ... ome/331449http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4125-S ... ome/158398http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/10111- ... ome/155820http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/1512-4 ... ome/149588http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/2517-5 ... ome/150296 REO http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/3440-W ... ome/327732http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4113-4 ... ome/331189http://www.redfin.com/WA/Seattle/4113-4 ... me/8190389edit: fixed picture link. Thanks WestSideBilly!
Last edited by deejayoh on Thu Jun 19, 2008 3:30 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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| Thu Jun 19, 2008 1:42 pm |
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WestSideBilly
Bubble Banter Boss
Joined: Mon Feb 04, 2008 1:41 pm
Posts: 550
Location: Land of entitlement
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? I don't think you did your img/url tag right. It's not a link to the listing, just the picture.
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| Thu Jun 19, 2008 2:40 pm |
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EastSider
Bubble Bloviator
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2007 11:17 pm
Posts: 474
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Re: What's the opposite of an audacious flip? Redmond Ridge home -- bought for $460K in June/2006 and is now listed for $425K http://www.redfin.com/WA/Redmond/9112-2 ... ome/444759 BTW, I hadn't noticed such significant price-drops with reasonably good starter-homes in Redmond -- so far. I guess that the best is yet to come.
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| Fri Jun 27, 2008 7:47 am |
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