Predicting the bottom

[Dave0]

[deejayoh]

I'm flattered anyone noticed!

I think my model needs an *

[rose-colored-coolaid]

[Alan]

Since we have a model that has been fairly accurate to this point we can watch to see how much it diverges over the next few months.

[victorchai]

so whoever bought this month can get 10% profit next Oct?

[Dave0]

I agree that we're in uncharted waters, so I'm skeptical to trust any one model. That's all the more reason why I was a bit surprised when this model appeared to be accurate up to this point. Obviously we'll get a better idea as more data comes out each month, but this model shows a possible light at the end of the tunnel.

Oh and victorchai, yes, but if this model holds true it will be 3%, not 10%.

[Dave0]

Wow, the September numbers are out and Seattle's index is 172.84, which is a lot lower than the 176.76 that this model was predicting. I wasn't expecting anything that low for another 4 months. I'll be curious to see what next month's value is, to see if this month is an exception to the trend, or is the start of a steeper than expected trend. Maybe the economic meltdown is starting to throw this model off.

[mukoh]

IMO, there is no real market wide bottom that can be predicted. Some areas will bottom quicker then others.