Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

I'm trying to decide if it is reasonable to look to buying in the south Snohomish County area (Mountlake Terrace, Lynnwood, South Everett). I am just sick to death of apartment renting (noise, etc) and am interested in a SFH, no condos or townhouses. I work at the Boeing Everett plant, but also travel to Boeing field (and occasionally Renton and Kent) for work, so south Snohomish seems a decent split between Everett and Seattle/King county. I've $90K for down payment, loan points and fees (low since I plan to go through the credit union), appraisal, inspection, etc.
I'm 48 and have at least 7 years until I can take early retirement (not that I have to bail at 55), no kids, no expensive hobbies, and don't mind reasonable maintenance/yard work. The alternative is to find a SFH to rent, however I think I'll find it easier to do my own yard work than to to do somebody else's.

I think it would be a great time to start snooping around when you can make the time. I can say with confidence that Sno Co. has seen some substantial pull back in prices (depending upon area/neighborhood) so you may find that you will be looking at more home for the money. Rates are excellent. Right know Sno Co. has about 8 mos or so of inventory and the appraisals I'm seeing are reporting this as well. This is clearly favoring buyers and I'm seeing contracts with concessions for closing costs.

I'm very close myself to doing some "shopping." All that to say, yes, it's reasonable to go looking. It's up to you whether or not the time is right to write a contract.

Depending on what you are buying of course, saw some recent builder write downs with banks and it looks like a 2900+ sq ft on 9k+ lot was at low 400s + the % incentives from the bank. Previously that probably would have been hi 500s if not 6s.

It is critical though to keep in mind about a purchase: you are not receiving a "discount" by paying "less" than what it sold for a year or two or three ago, you are paying what it is worth in today's market. You (consumer) ARE the market. Period. Do not be fooled by a huge price drop if a home has been on the market for months on end. Nor by the "instant equity" mantra that graces all over Craigslist.

I'd start looking, but take your time until you find just what you want. The only things that go quickly are those houses that are drastically below market value.

Also, I'd be wary of buying new construction right now. Make sure that most, if not all of the houses are already sold.

I'm with you, Westside Billy. I own my house and mowing the lawn just keeps getting less and less appealing.
If you rent a SFH, won't some landlords provide the mowing, while you sit in the living room drinking beer?

Hi, Thanks with putting up with what was part rant/venting and part thinking out loud. I do really really dislike hive living, but I'm trying real hard to keep control and not make a rash buy. WestSideBilly makes a good point on yard work. Of course, if I end up just being 'rental scum' then it is as easy to not mow somebody else's yard as it would be to not mow mine. I've no debt, sufficient funds for 20% down + costs and still have a decent reserve/emergency fund. Job is pretty secure, unless the lazy B actually goes under or I lose my temper with the anti-white male PC fertilizer that pervades the company. Might be good to spend the next 3-4 weeks taking a good look at the local (Lynnwood/MLT/Edmonds) market and see what is what.

I actually rent a SFH with no yard... just a big driveway and some shrubs (which we never touched last summer).

In terms of finding rentals, there are a lot of 0 lot line townhome (no shared walls) properties that were built the last 5 years... you could probably find something along those lines for a few years. I wouldn't buy one because most of them were built to the lowest possible standard, but they'd be good for a while.

Prices have risen the last two months in Snohomish Co. Does that set a trend? No. Does that forecast a bottom? No.

However, I believe it's important to keep an eye on the numbers month by month as opposed to year over year.

Keep this in mind: Say the average home price was $400K for March 2008 and prices fell 20% to $320K for March 2009, but over the next few months prices rise at a rate of 3% per month. It would take 8 months for the prices to get back to $400K.

Therefore an increase in the YOY wouldn't show up in the numbers until November.

The question is, do you want to be buying while the average home prices are lower, or wait until the YOY numbers show a positive increase which means you are now buying in a more expensive market.

I am not forecasting a 3% monthly price increase. I am just using this scenario to show the importance of watching the numbers on a monthly basis.

Snohomish County averge home sale prices went up 3.75% in March over January. Prices may very well go down in April. I make no predictions, only follow the numbers.

I have created a 10 Year, monthly average home price graph for Snohomish County if your interested.

http://snohomishcountymarketstatistics.blogspot.com/

The last thing anyone needs to worry about is missing the bottom of the real-estate market. When we hit bottom it will drag along for many years. You can feel confident the bottom has been struck if there is a 24 month time-frame with no significant year-on-year depreciation.

I am NOT saying you should wait for the bottom to buy (purchasing is a very personal decision, and you have to look at your own finances, desires, etc). I am merely saying that the climb up from the bottom will span MANY years, and the first 3 to 5 years (from the bottom) will see negligable appreciation.

What happens on a monthly basis isn't very useful for understanding market directions. There are a LOT of things that can cause spikes (one way or the other) on a monthly basis.