Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

I'm considering whether things have sufficiently declined such that, with low current fixed mortgage rates and a 10+ year horizon, I could reasonably expect to at least break even if I bought today.

I have a fairly secure job, and at least 10 years before I could take early retirement (about another 10 years for full retirement) and I'm considering buying this spring/summer. I know prices may continue to decline a bit, but would be in the house 10+ years, which seems long enough for modest post-bubble appreciation (say 3%) to allow me to at least break even if/when I did sell. I'm interested in the south Snohomish county area, which seems to have reasonable prospects considering its location with respect to Seattle, Everett, and the eastside, and isn't King county.

I'm trying to balance the financial risks of buying in the near-term with quality of life benefits of not living in an apartment. I've considered renting a house but the decent ones (decent, not fancy) look to have rents close to the PITI of buying.

Thoughts?

IMO Only.
With the current builder/bank incentives of 3.87% and 4.2% on some projects I see consistantly selling, on a 30 yr fixed if you negotiate well enough the 164St interchange and Bothell Evt. Highway offers some interesting deals, get an agent who knows the banks/builders and shop until you get exactly what you want. An agent who represented a friend of mine got him a sweet 2300 Sq Ft brand new in Bothell for $299k with incentives and hoopla his payment is at $1300 a month with HOA/Taxes/Insurance. Took two months to get the builder/bank to come down but he is happy. Nice backyard big enough for sauna, shop etc.

dls,
I think that if you bought a home now at the right price in a good location, chances are very good that it would be worth more ten years from now.
And if your monthly mortgage payments could be comparable to rent, that makes it more appealing.
But you'd want to make sure the house is in decent shape and doesn't(and won't) need upcoming repairs, and you'll want to stop paying attention to home values continuing to decline. If you're in it for the long haul, you'll probably be just fine, but obsessively watching the value of your decline month after month may be hazardous to your health.
I don't really know enough to speculate on the direction of interest rates, but they are low right now. Because of that, and because some homes have decreased in price a whole lot, it might be a decent time to buy, and might be even more decent 6 months - 1 year from now.

Sorry, Lake Hills Renter. I don't mean to trigger financially related post traumatic stress disorder.

Along with falling house prices, also ignore falling rents.

South Snohomish County will be risky. In my opinion anything out side of city limits will be risky for the next ten years. That would be any city in the Pacific Northwest. Some cities are more viable than others.

Job Centers will be driving the economy rather than regional growth. The idea that the Pacific Northwest will be drawing people in the next ten years is remote.

The spike in population in this area started with the merger of McDonald Douglas with Boeing. Microsoft, Amazon, and bio tech continued the draw. The question is if in ten years we will still be drawing population.

If you think so then find the location closest to where you think the job centers will be.

I personally would want to be closer in to Seattle, or Bellevue.

The question is resale value.

Snohomish County also has a tax burden that in my opinion has been off set for twenty years by construction. The theory was population growth in the Puget Sound Region would drive the demand for the new construction, cheap housing. I've never bought into that.

Now you have a lot of housing for a shrinking population. I see property values dropping faster in Snohomish than King County. Honestly I would rather be closer to Sea Tac than Everett. In my opinion Sea Tac has more potential for job growth.