Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

Those of you following this blog over the last several months will recall a number of readers made wagers with me regarding the housing market in Seattle. Let's review them:

Matthew: He predicted that March 2007 would be the peak price for Seattle and then prices would plummet from April onward. Matthew has earned the distinction as the first to end up with egg on his face. April #s show that house prices came nowhere near falling in April. They actually climbed $10K in one month to $465. Matthew, can you explain why your prediction ran amuck?

Refracted Thought: He wagered that we'd see double digit declines by June. Refracted thought's predication is in serious jeopardy. With April stats showing double digit price increases, and sales up YOY, it's very unlikely that we'll see double digit YOY price decreases come June. RF, would you care to abdicate?

Biliruben: He predicted YOY inflation adjusted price decreases by July. Again, this looks highly unlikely after the strong showing in April. Would you like to back out?

Synthetic: Synthetic bet that my house's zillow rating would drop by Dec. This wager was made in March, when my house Zillowed at $534K. Today it zillows at $550K. Dec is a long ways off and I suppose anything can happen. But it looks like Syn miscalculated this one...I'd be glad to give you the opportunity of back out of this. Do you accept?

Actually, given what is going to happen to credit standards over the next few months (say goodbye to Alt-A loans!), I still would place money on Synthetic's bet that Shugs' house will drop in value by December. People may still want to buy houses - too bad no one will lend them the money (without 20% down, tons of documentation of income, etc....)

Ah...the old Meshugy is scared routine. No matter what Meshugy says or does, it's because he's scared!

If Meshugy posts a lot, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.


If Meshugy doesn't post, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.


If Meshugy say prices are going up, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.


If Meshugy says prices are going down, it's because he's scared about the market crashing.

etc, etc....again, the conspiracy theories and feeble attempts to understand me are the most entertaining things about this blog.

Hey, I was just joking (what's there to be scared of?), but that was some seriously defensive shiznet!

I assume you weren't silly enough to have been riding an option ARM or taken out a second lien. You love the nirvana that is Ballard, right? Gotta good loan, gotta good house. Staying put for a while. All is rosy no matter where the market goes.

I guess the only question that becomes apparent is: what the heck are you hanging around here for?

It's time for an update on the wagers:

Matthew: He predicted that March 2007 would be the peak price for Seattle and then prices would plummet from April onward.

After the strong showing in May, we can conclude the Matthew's prediction was way off base. Price have climbed $15K since March. So much for the "peak." Matty is still wiping the egg of his face....


Refracted Thought: He wagered that we'd see double digit declines by June.

Considering that KC had just shy of 10% YOY appreciation in May, it's highly unlikely we'd a sudden double digit drop this month. Sorry Refrac, wrong again.

Biliruben: He predicted YOY inflation adjusted price decreases by July.

Bili has precious little time to see he prediction realized. Will we see prices drop YOY in July? Current trends would indicate this prediction is pure folly.

Synpathetic: Synpathetic bet that my house's zillow rating would drop by Dec.

This wager was made in March, when my house Zillowed at $534K. My current Zillow rank is $557K. A $23K increase since the wager was made...looks like another wildly inaccurate guess from Synpathetic.