Recent articles about Seattle home prices
Posted:
Sat May 12, 2007 8:22 amby Jazen
So, yesterday at CNNMoney Diana Olick wrote an article regarding the strong Seattle housing market. I have read similar articles on other websites as well. Portland OR is also lumped in there, with a quote from some idiot who is going to try to flip their house because they don't have to worry about a downturn. Just wanted to post this article, showing where Seattle stands in regards to inventory. Now, seattle being the bustling metropolis that it is, should have a high percentage of inventory when compared to huge cities such as Chicago and the Bay area. Right?
http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysel ... gerty.html
Just to keep you all in reality.
Posted:
Sun May 13, 2007 11:13 amby meshugy
Inventory is still very tight by historical standards.
KC Res April 2007: 7,649
KC Res April 2004: 7,637
KC Res April 2003: 8,856
KC Res April 2002: 7,639
So we're in for the sort of correction we saw in those years, which was zilch. Hosues kept selling and prices appreciated despite the same or more inventory.
huh?
Posted:
Sun May 13, 2007 4:17 pmby george
Meshugy,
Obviously the supply is still a limiting factor but I don't see the controversy. We're seeing a rapid increase in inventory. If that trend escalates, the market will flatten. As the market flattens, there will be fewer speculative buyers.* That's when the market softens for real, just like every other comparable "bubble proof" market has around the country. I expect to see it happen by March of 2008 or before. Did you say you were willing to bet against that?
Of course, if the current talk of a recession is right and the overall economic picture turns gloomy at that same moment, we could be in for a real drop. Otherwise, just be a slow flattening, but one that could last for a number of years.
Quick: Let's assume there's no bubble but the market just flattens right out. If you own your 500K house in Seattle outright today, how much money do you lose between now and 2015 by not selling the house and renting instead?
My answer: Somewhere between $30,000 and $230,000 dollars, depending on how well you do on your other investments.
*(How many qualify as speculative buyers? At this point, given the rent/price ratios and other fundamentals, basically all home buyers in the area are speculative buyers - meaning they think the price will be higher next year as if they were buying corn or wheat futures.)
