Seattle Bubble Forum Archive

A little less than I expected. About a month ago, I had done a simple model to predict how appreciation would tail off, based on historical seasonality and the overall trend. Here's what I posted then, with this month's actual performance against it

Mo Year Annual Month Annual Month
03 2007 10.0% (1.2%) 10.0% (0.9%)
04 2007 9.4% (1.0%)
05 2007 8.7% (0.9%)
06 2007 8.1% (1.1%)
07 2007 7.5% (0.6%)
08 2007 6.8% (0.4%)
09 2007 6.2% (0.0%)
10 2007 5.6% (-0.2%)
11 2007 4.9% (-0.6%)
12 2007 4.3% (-0.6%)

Let's see how I do...

OK - so the problem with CS is that it is released almost 2 months in arrears. It is more accurate than Median price, but its kind of old news.

However, if you look over at it is possible to get a peek at how median price performance is going even before the month is over.

If the screenshot below is accurate, then methinks the spamming this month about median price performance should be minimal. As of 5/27 - MoM performance appears flat to down. YoY Seattle will, of course, still be up - but at an ever decreasing pace...